Are the bad guys winning?

[Guest RabidBillsFanVT]

Rabid - you offer the explanation of sarcasm in your own post and then support Mickey's criticism of me over what was obvious sarcasm in my post?  Guess that's what being respectful of your opinions in this thread gets me. 

 

Mickey - Go back to Encarta again and do some research on Dearborn this time.  Explain to me how people that have no experience with or desire for democracy seemingly have overtaken a metropolitan suburb and prospered in a democratic/capitalist world.  Almost all of them have families in the Middle East.  Almost all of them want for their families what they have here, and their families want the same.  To say that Arabs don't want freedom and self-determination IMHO is a serious miscalculation.  I have talked with clerics in my travels who disagree with the tactics of war, but their goal is essentially to bring the American dream to the Middle East (without the sex, drugs, and rap of course).  When a middle class starts to rise up in the region, things will snowball.  It will take time, but it will happen.

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OHH NOOO NOOO... I wasn't implying it was YOU, no! hehehe I'm sorry!

 

I was talking about some people on this board (Boomer, Moose) who will vehemently state that all Muslims are bad, and of course they don't meet that many, and hold discussions with them, or read that much history, so I told him that. I should have said something, but I didn't think about it when I posted that. Sorry; I was on another post responsing to another and just had to say that.

[Mickey]

Rabid - you offer the explanation of sarcasm in your own post and then support Mickey's criticism of me over what was obvious sarcasm in my post?  Guess that's what being respectful of your opinions in this thread gets me.  

 

Mickey - Go back to Encarta again and do some research on Dearborn this time.  Explain to me how people that have no experience with or desire for democracy seemingly have overtaken a metropolitan suburb and prospered in a democratic/capitalist world.  Almost all of them have families in the Middle East.  Almost all of them want for their families what they have here, and their families want the same.  To say that Arabs don't want freedom and self-determination IMHO is a serious miscalculation.  I have talked with clerics in my travels who disagree with the tactics of war, but their goal is essentially to bring the American dream to the Middle East (without the sex, drugs, and rap of course).  When a middle class starts to rise up in the region, things will snowball.  It will take time, but it will happen.

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Beleive me MichFan, I want democracy to be a viable government system in the Middle East as much as you do. The history, culture, traditions and actions of the region argue strongly to the contrary. The Afghan Pashtun Mujehideen who sent the Soviets packing did not endure that struggle to install democracy, they did so to toss out a foreign invader. When they did, it was their intention to install an Islamic government, a theocracy basically. We bagged them and instead backed returning Afghan exiles who sat out the war in Europe because they were like us, educated in the west and for democracy as long as it didn't result in the free election of Islamic fundamentalists. In short, we backed the minority against the majority, the cowards against the hardknuckled fighters who won that war. It took about 9 years or so of civil war but eventually the Pashtuns, the Taliban, won.

 

It is absolutely a legitimate and reasonable concern that we are making the same mistake again. Raising it does not make me an anti-bush loon or a raving partisan. It is a concern that has been raised as much by conservatives as anyone else. The Afghans, whatever their potential to form a non-theocratic government, are simply never going to accept a foreign power running the country and will always view the government they installed as nothing but puppets. Add in the unlikelihood that the largest and most powerful tribe in the country will accept a government dominated by minority Uzbeks and it is not hard to see why any notion that our Afghan policy will succeed is nearly delusional.

 

As for Dearborn, they are your example of why the view I am presenting is wrong. I've done my research and shared it with you, I think it is a little unfair to require me to do your research as well. Post the info, I'll read it. My mind is not made up on this and the primary reason I raised it was to draw out information on the other side of the issue. After all, I have to spend at least part of my day worrying about J'ville and the game on Sunday. Somewhere along the line I have to get some work done.

[MichFan]

Here's an overview of the Arab-American community in Dearborn:

 

http://www.commurb.org/features/sgold/detroit.html

 

Here's a section from the article:

 

Analysis of 1990 Census data for Michigan indicates that as a group, Arabs are relatively well off, with a higher fraction of college graduates than among native-born whites and relatively low rates of unemployment and subpoverty income. However, the community reveals significant economic variance. Some members are impoverished, while others are successful professionals. Major occupations include industrial vocations, the professions and self-employment.

[Guest RabidBillsFanVT]

Here's an overview of the Arab-American community in Dearborn:

 

http://www.commurb.org/features/sgold/detroit.html

 

Here's a section from the article:

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That was a great bit about the community there. Of course, every community has people that are very successful, and the ones who are NEVER successful!

[Mickey]

Here's an overview of the Arab-American community in Dearborn:

 

http://www.commurb.org/features/sgold/detroit.html

 

Here's a section from the article:

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These folks are the descendants of Lebanese immigrants that came over in the 1800's. They have been in this country, living as a minority, surrounded by and living within the most democratic, tolerant and mulit-cultural society on the planet for well over 100 years. I am not sure what their experience reveals, if anything, about the chances for democracy in the hinterlands of Afghanistan. It was not my point that there was some sort of Arabic genetic pre-disposition that made democracy untenable in the Middle East. I am certain that even in Afghanistan you could find people who passionately want a secular state with a plural, democratic society. You could round them up, move them to Oxnard and they would probably do pretty well. Unfortunately, they are very much a minority and in fact, calling them a "minority" probaly overstates their numbers and influence.

 

Here is some general information on the Pashtun:

 

The warlike Pathans [or Pathan, Pukhtun or Pushtun] form one of the world's largest tribal societies (about 16 million) and are divided into numerous sub-tribes and clans.... The Pathan hill tribes all have a passion for freedom and independence, and defend their territory and honor against all invaders. They are fearless guerilla fighters who know the hills and valleys intimately, are crack shots and wear clothes that blend with their surroundings (khaki is a local word meaning 'dusty, and it was as a result of the wars in this region that the British army abandoned its bright red uniforms for the inconspicuous dust-colored khaki). No one has ever managed to subdue or unite them: the Mughals, Sikhs, British and Russians have all suffered defeat at their hands."

 

"The Pukhtunwali (the Way of the Pukhtuns) is an inflexible ethical code by which all true Pathans traditionally abide. Pukhtunwali requires that every insult be revenged and, conversely, every guest protected. To safeguard his honor, o the honor of his family or clan, a Pathan will sacrifice everything, including his money and his life. He will return even t he slightest insult with interest. According to a Pathan proverb, 'He is not a Pathan who does not give a blow for a pinch.'"

 

The PATHAN (Pashtun) people form the dominant ethnic and linguistic community, accounting for just over half the population. Tribally organized, the Pathan are concentrated in the east and the south. As they gained control over the rest of the country in the 19th century, however, many of them settled in other areas too. The Pashtuns mostly speak Pashtu (although some residing in Kabul and other urban areas speak Dari) and are generally Sunni Muslims. They are divided into tribal and sub-tribal groups to which they remain loyal. These tribal divisions have been the source of conflict among Pashtuns throughout their history. Even today, the Pashtun parties are divided along tribal lines. The majority of Pashtuns make their living off of animal husbandry and agriculture as well as some trade. In Afghanistan, Pashtuns have traditionally resided in a large semi-circular area following the Afghan border form north of the Darya-e-Morgab east and southward to just north of the 35' latitude. Enclaves of Pashtuns live scattered among other ethnic groups in much of the rest of the country, especially in the northern regions and in the western interior due to the resettlement policies of Amir Abdul Rahman Khan, who ruled Afghanistan from 1880 to 1901.

 

From its founding in 1747 by Ahmad Shah Durrani, Afghanistan has traditionally been dominated by the Pashtuns, who before 1978 constituted a 51% minority in the country. However, as a result of the 1979 Soviet invasion the population distribution in Afghanistan has changed. About 85% of the 6.2 million Afghan refugees who fled to Iran and Pakistan and around the World due to the Russian invasion and the war that followed it are Pashtuns. This, accordingly, lowered the percentage of Pashtuns inside Afghanistan temporarily and raised the percentages of the country's other ethnic groups. By the mid-1990s many of the refugees returned restoring the Pashtuns to their status of the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan constituting about 45% of the population.

 

The Soviet invasion of December 1979 has been the major determining factor in Afghanistan's ethnic relations since that point in time. From that time Until mid-1991 the various factions of the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan, all dominated by Pashtuns, controlled the country's government. All other factions either opposed or aligned themselves with the PDPA (with most in the opposition), including several Pashtun factions. It is not within the scope of this chronology to document the constant shifts in alliances between various factions, both between the opposition and government camps and within them. However, it should be noted that most of the factions were ethnically homogeneous and were engaging in a constant shifting of alliances worthy of traditional balance of power theory and continue to do so today. The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 has only affected the power relations among the country's various factions but has not changed the fact that they are in constant competition with each other.

 

The Dari-speaking TAJIK are the second-largest community, accounting for approximately 25% of the population. They are strongly identified with sedentary farming and town life, mostly in the fertile eastern valleys north and south of the Hindu Kush. Some 11% of the population are Turkic, mostly UZBEK and TURKMEN, who live in the northern plains as farmers and herders. The central mountains yield a meager living to some 1.1 million HAZARAS, a Mongoloid people who mostly speak Persian. There are many smaller communities, the most important of which are the NURISTANIS of the high mountains of the east and the BALUCH of the desert south.

 

Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun himself, was initially a supporter of the Taliban although he was an official in the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani, an ethnic Tajik who was President from 1992 until 1996 when he was overthrown by the Taliban. Karzai stopped supporting the Taliban when he questioned their close ties with Pakistan. Karzai refused a position in the Taliban government and fled to Qetta while Rabbani became the leader, such as it was, of the Northern Alliance. As for Karzai, his actual authority outside the capital city of Kabul is said to be so limited that he is often derided as the "Mayor of Kabul." Although he has little or no popular support outside Kabul, the incumbent Karzai appears likely to defeat his 22 opponents in the country's presidential election on October 9th, 2004. Endorsement by the second Bush administration, incumbency, the brief one month campaign season, and the paucity of news coverage in the country about his opponents make him the probable winner in an election expected to be flawed by violence and vote fraud.

 

Looks like an eventual recipe for disaster. 16 million, that is a lot of bad guys.

[MichFan]

Mickey, I'm just too much of an optimist to ever believe that freedom can't exist in the Middle East. It can happen and it will happen if America is resolute enough to lead the way.

 

You have done an excellent job detailing the nature of the the challenges we are up against over there. What is overlooked is the power of a father and mother watching their daughter go to school again in Afghanistan. A husband seeing his wife able to enter nursing again. An Iraqi able to go into the streets to protest the American presence there. A Shia able to talk about persecution without fear of retribution. Two societies preparing for respectable elections. Whether they think they like it or not, they are experiencing freedom for the first time in a long time (some ever) and their souls like it. These are the victories that are won on a daily basis that history cannot deny. They may not be able to get away from the headlines in the news, but what they live throughout the day is more important than what they read in the paper.

[Mickey]

Mickey, I'm just too much of an optimist to ever believe that freedom can't exist in the Middle East.  It can happen and it will happen if America is resolute enough to lead the way.

 

You have done an excellent job detailing the nature of the the challenges we are up against over there.  What is overlooked is the power of a father and mother watching their daughter go to school again in Afghanistan.  A husband seeing his wife able to enter nursing again.  An Iraqi able to go into the streets to protest the American presence there.  A Shia able to talk about persecution without fear of retribution.  Two societies preparing for respectable elections.  Whether they think they like it or not, they are experiencing freedom for the first time in a long time (some ever) and their souls like it.  These are the victories that are won on a daily basis that history cannot deny.  They may not be able to get away from the headlines in the news, but what they live throughout the day is more important than what they read in the paper.

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What if Afghans freely choose the Taliban and to provide a home for AQ? If given the freedom to choose, those are the choices they would likely make.

[Alaska Darin]

What if Afghans freely choose the Taliban and to provide a home for AQ?  If given the freedom to choose, those are the choices they would likely make.

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How do you know that?