Arians: Best QB Class In 15-20 Years

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think Manziel would have been an effective starting QB if not for his drug addiction.

 

And I don't think he ever would have been.

[DallasMac]

29 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It would appear that people have forgotten how good of a passer Manziel was in college. Manziel didn't thrive in as structured an environment as Mayfield did (which is saying something because a large part of Mayfield's game relies on him improvizing), but he was a very accurate passer in his own right. I don't think it's a diss to compare the two of them anyways; I think Manziel would have been an effective starting QB if not for his drug addiction.

He was a good college Qb.  The talk at the time was did he make Mike Evans look good or was it the other way around.  I think having Evans and his mobility and ability to improvise is what made him successful in college.  I don't believe he ever would've been a good pro though.

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, DallasMac said:

He was a good college Qb.  The talk at the time was did he make Mike Evans look good or was it the other way around.  I think having Evans and his mobility and ability to improvise is what made him successful in college.  I don't believe he ever would've been a good pro though.

 

Being a good pro entails: having ability, preparing yourself physically all year round, having the mental acumen to succeed against NFL defenses, reading defenses and making quick adjustments, film study and preparing week in and week out....its a lot to ask a person to be able to do and thats the major reason there arent many people that can be successful in doing so. 

 

Manziel didn't even have any of those traits 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, PaattMaann said:

 

Being a good pro entails: having ability, preparing yourself physically all year round, having the mental acumen to succeed against NFL defenses, reading defenses and making quick adjustments, film study and preparing week in and week out....its a lot to ask a person to be able to do and thats the major reason there arent many people that can be successful in doing so. 

 

Manziel didn't even have any of those traits 

 

Beyond what he lacked on the field to be successful at the NFL level, no team wants their QB to be the **** face of the franchise.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Good analysis as usual Gunner.

 

I'll add that if you're drafting Lamar Jackson, you need to make sure that you have him surrounded by speed guys to take advantage of his zone/read and scrambling ability.

 

Oh, and if you're drafting Josh Allen, you should surround him with clergymen who will pray that he finds a way to translate his outstanding physical gifts, attitude, and work ethic into actually playing good football more often than not.

My fear of a player like Josh Allen is that he fits in with the Blake Bortles syndrome. If you break down the parts he has them in spades, at least on the physical side. But when you watch him play there is a disconnect between the physical talents and production. 

 

When evaluating a specimen such as Allen the best approach is to forget about the tape measure and watch the tape. Trust your eyes! Then come to an evaluation. He's a player I am very much wary of. 

[Doc]

Arians has never drafted a good QB.  So I take his words with a grain of salt.

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, Doc said:

Arians has never drafted a good QB.  So I take his words with a grain of salt.

he's had a serious influence on plenty though.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I dont care about where pundits predict players to go, because they are always wrong.

 

I am talking about their play. They play nothing alike as QB, Mayfield can actually be a threat passing the ball, all Manziel did was run around. 

 

I am not concerned about Mayfields "off field" stuff whatsoever. He is a fiery competitor and once got drunk in public, for shame! 

 

Mayfield is an actual QB who has gotten better every year and has been learning from a great coach down there. He is a born leader and all of his teammates love the kid. Sign me up.

 

You play the role of a pundit.  But say pundits are always wrong.

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I mean I know we are all experts here, but I trust Arians' judgement. His big mistake was Logan Thomas, but I mean it was the fourth round. 

 

Allen, Darnold, Rosen all have the potential to be big time franchise quarterbacks. Rosen kind of reminds me of Eli, Darnold reminds me of Rivers, Allen could possibly be Big Ben with development.

 

Mayfield and Jackson could be big time players if put in the right system and an offense that will fit their abilities. I don't like Rudolph, but I could see him being a Joe Flacco type. Falk could be something and then you have those Senior Bowl guys with the athletic ability like White and Lauletta. You have Litton,  Ferguson, Benkert etc. Heck you even have Kyle Allen, Houston QB and former five star recruit as a possible UDFA with loads of arm talent. There is high level potential and possible solid starters in this draft class. 

 

 

 

I think Rosen is that guy. I think he's an elite talent but nobody is talking about him right now. If his last name were Manning, he'd be guaranteed to be the first pick in the draft. I also think Darnold and Allen have elite potential, while Mayfield and Jackson could be really special in the right spot. We need that franchise changing guy. Anything short of that and we are just spinning wheels. I gotta try to trade up for Rosen. 

 

And you may very well be right...for me, and if I had to make that decision, he just wouldn't be worth that kind of risk. Luck would have been, but he was a senior and had developed as far as he was going to in college. Rosen may be the best QB to come out in a long time, but some information - not sure of its veracity - indicates he doesn't "love" football to the extent he's willing to put all of his hours, heart and soul into becoming the best he possibly become. If the Bills were to get that kind of vibe from him during Combine interviews, that would definitely make me NOT want to move up to top 3 for that. JMO, but I do respect yours and I can't argue hard against doing everything to get that guy....I'm just not sure I'm sold on anyone being worth that kind of sacrifice in this year's Draft with the roster in its current state.

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I understand your position but disagree with it. The Bills need to identify the top tier qbs in this class and be aggressive in putting themselves in a position to get that particular prospect. Why wait for the prospect to drop into your lap when because of the demand other teams can take that same prospect before you or trade up ahead of you and take your preferred prospect. 

 

No one is arguing that you should recklessly and wastefully give away picks to get your preferred prospect but being passive this year and hoping your prospect falls to you is playing this draft board too passively. This is the year to get a high end prospect in the pipeline. Why not judiciously use a portion of your draft assets in this draft  to get a franchise qb that you have lacked for almost a quarter of a century? If not now, then when? 

 

And similarly, I understand your perspective as its a highly shared one and I thank you for discussing this respectfully and maturely. However, I do disagree because unless the Bills were to do whatever is necessary to get to #1 - again doubtful for a variety of reasons - you could make that leap any year for any player you feel is truly worth it. The years when Eagles and Redskins made giant leaps to get up to 2, they gave up the following year's #1 and got their guy. But, in a year where there is a real good pool of QBs, why use so much Draft capital in a year when you REALLY need alllllllll of it to make a good roster, and a good to great QB comes to you?? That's just my perspective, but of course if the Bills use every pick they have and get up to #1 or #2 and Draft Rosen, it's not like I'm going to be rooting against the guy. I'll love him when he puts on the Bills uniform just like any other player and give him the same room to grow and show his worth. 

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

Arians has never drafted a good QB.  So I take his words with a grain of salt.

 

He has never drafted one really other than some late round shots.  He was only a Head Coach in 'Zona and they signed Palmer as a FA.  

[PaattMaann]

16 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

You play the role of a pundit.  But say pundits are always wrong.

 

I thought I was being clear, national pundits never get projected rounds/slots correct in mocking drafts

 

I, as a fan, am offering my take on strengths of a QB based on what I have seen of him..

 

I think the difference there is pretty clear to understand 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He has never drafted one really other than some late round shots.  He was only a Head Coach in 'Zona and they signed Palmer as a FA.  

 

He did have Big Ben and Luck under his tutelage as OC.

[The Now Moment]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think it is probably somewhere close to 2004.  What I would say is different is that the 2004 guys were not as contrasting in style.  Yes Big Ben is different to Eli and Rivers is maybe a bit in between the two but there were all in essence pocket guys. The college game has changed and I think a lot of the evaluation of these guys is going to involve looking at system fits and what you need to put around them to let them have success early.  

 

If I am drafting Josh Rosen I want to make sure my offensive line is really sound and I have speed on the outside.  If I am drafting Sam Darnold I want to make sure that I have a running game that can take the pressure off him to throw every down in his rookie year and receivers that can get separation.  If I draft Baker Mayfield I want to ensure I have an offensive coordinator with experience working with a Quarterback who does much of his best work out of the pocket and receivers who can get YAC. If Rudolph I want big guys on the outside and a run game that can be varied and dynamic.  

 

 

I disagree with this part. Rudolph doesn't have much experience throwing it to covered players.  He's had a some throws that were contested but most of the players he was throwing to in that system were wide open by several yards.  I've seen plenty of his games and seen this in all of them.  I think he needs burners that can separate.  Big bodies are for the QBs that have perfect placement and can throw the back shoulder throw and the fade very well...I think Rudolph would need great route running wideouts and guys that can fly.  Not saying he wouldn't benefit from time to time from a large receiver but I think he'd utilize the faster wide receiver more.

[thenorthremembers]

Reading some of these posts I feel like I need to clarify a few things about Mayfield.

 

A)  He does not do "his best work" outside of the pocket.  Thats a complete and total myth, and it's a lazy assumption.  He threw from the pocket more than he threw from outside of the pocket.  He was just as accurate throwing from the pocket as he was throwing outside of it. 

 

B) The Manziel comparison is also lazy.  They are similar in stature, and even then Mayfield is a bigger player.    Manziel is a much better athlete, and nowhere near the passer that Mayfield is.

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

7 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

And you may very well be right...for me, and if I had to make that decision, he just wouldn't be worth that kind of risk. Luck would have been, but he was a senior and had developed as far as he was going to in college. Rosen may be the best QB to come out in a long time, but some information - not sure of its veracity - indicates he doesn't "love" football to the extent he's willing to put all of his hours, heart and soul into becoming the best he possibly become. If the Bills were to get that kind of vibe from him during Combine interviews, that would definitely make me NOT want to move up to top 3 for that. JMO, but I do respect yours and I can't argue hard against doing everything to get that guy....I'm just not sure I'm sold on anyone being worth that kind of sacrifice in this year's Draft with the roster in its current state.

 

I appreciate that. I see a kid who got asked some tough questions and responded honestly. He may be a jerk, or it may be something the media is saying because they don't like his opinions. Everything that has come out of that actual locker room has been positive. I think he is an extremely intelligent guy and is standing up for those less fortunate than him. I loved this quote from Jim Mora, who was his coach. This was after Rosen made comments about college taking advantage of athletes etc.: 

 

"Well, I think it's important to know this about Josh Rosen: He's very, very well respected by his coaches and his teammates because we see on a daily basis his commitment, his work ethic, his attitude, his passion for football. We also know that he's an incredibly intelligent young man that does have opinions. Often times those opinions are conveyed to others because he is trying to bring attention to some that are maybe less fortunate or have less than he does. At times that maybe he feels are taken advantage of. The message to Josh is that it's OK to have opinions. As a 20-year-old, you're going to have opinions now that maybe you don't have when you're 22, 23, 30, 50, 60 that are maybe different than when you were 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. But when you express those opinions in a public forum - and he expressed those opinions way back in the spring. This is not a recent interview. But when you express opinions, you create perceptions. You create controversy. There are those who agree with you and those who won't agree with you. And you have to be willing to live with the consequences."

 

Now I would recommend reading this interview with Bleacher Report where he made some of those comments: 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2722587-josh-rosen-qa-ucla-qb-on-injuries-ncaa-and-post-nfl-goal-to-own-the-world 

 

Here is another interview where the interviewer brings up Trump for some reason: 

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/josh-rosen-conor-mcdermott-ucla/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sept 30 AM&utm_content=Sept 30 AM+CID_cf5de8385d01b4393dd30813efc2329e&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=Everything Under the Sun

 

He was asked about Trump and said this: 

"Well, I think it’s no secret that I’m not a large fan of Donald Trump — from a policy standpoint and from a human-being standpoint. I think it’s cowardly to run a campaign based on demagoguery and bigotry, and to incite fear so you can rally support for personal gain. He’s feeding off of racial tension and a lack of religious understanding, and a lack of sympathy and empathy for people who are different from him. I think it’s sad that he’s not even trying to understand important issues and propose legitimate policies to make the country a better place. It seems like he just wants to be president … so he can be president. There’s so much I don’t like. I don’t like his policy positions, and I really don’t like him making racially charged statements to people who don’t know better or understand what it’s like to come from poverty or different backgrounds."

 

BTW, the other guy in that interview is Conor McDermott, who is on our team and loves Rosen. We have Rosen's teammate at left tackle for two years in our building, so if we want to know what teammates think of Rosen, we can just ask Conor. (I also think he is in the mix at RT this year)

 

I see Rosen as a really intelligent guy who is a little misunderstood (because the general public is really dumb). I think the bad teammate stuff and doesn't love football stuff is nonsense. He's the guy IMO. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

15 to 20 years is an odd range.  I'd go for more the 2004 class of E. Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger.  I guess you can argue 1999 was full of good prospects, but only half panned out.

 

 

Hits and misses during those years.

 

1998 - Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselback   Busts:  Ryan Leaf

1999- Donivan Mcnabb and Daunte Culpepper Busts: Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown

2000- Chad Pennington, Mark Bulger, Tom Satan  Busts: Nobody as Pennington only first round pick

2001-  Michael Vick, Drew Brees  Busts:  Nobody as Vick only first round pick

2002 - Davad Garrard   Busts: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey

 

I think he was probably speaking off the cuff and using 15-20 as a placeholder for  "back when some of the greats like Palmer and  Rivers and Roeth and  were drafted and I don't really remember when that was off the top of my head"

 

Worth noting that Garrard was a 4th round pick and Bulger in the 6th, nobody saw them coming

[JohnC]

17 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

And you may very well be right...for me, and if I had to make that decision, he just wouldn't be worth that kind of risk. Luck would have been, but he was a senior and had developed as far as he was going to in college. Rosen may be the best QB to come out in a long time, but some information - not sure of its veracity - indicates he doesn't "love" football to the extent he's willing to put all of his hours, heart and soul into becoming the best he possibly become. If the Bills were to get that kind of vibe from him during Combine interviews, that would definitely make me NOT want to move up to top 3 for that. JMO, but I do respect yours and I can't argue hard against doing everything to get that guy....I'm just not sure I'm sold on anyone being worth that kind of sacrifice in this year's Draft with the roster in its current state.

 

And similarly, I understand your perspective as its a highly shared one and I thank you for discussing this respectfully and maturely. However, I do disagree because unless the Bills were to do whatever is necessary to get to #1 - again doubtful for a variety of reasons - you could make that leap any year for any player you feel is truly worth it. The years when Eagles and Redskins made giant leaps to get up to 2, they gave up the following year's #1 and got their guy. But, in a year where there is a real good pool of QBs, why use so much Draft capital in a year when you REALLY need alllllllll of it to make a good roster, and a good to great QB comes to you?? That's just my perspective, but of course if the Bills use every pick they have and get up to #1 or #2 and Draft Rosen, it's not like I'm going to be rooting against the guy. I'll love him when he puts on the Bills uniform just like any other player and give him the same room to grow and show his worth. 

Where I disagree with the thrust of your response is that I don't necessarily believe that you have to exhaust your draft assets to get one of  the top two prospects when there are maybe three or four high quality prospects. I would rather make a lesser move up the draft board to draft Mayfield at a lower cost than use more of my draft picks to get either Rosen or Darnold. I'll extend that logic even farther. If you believed that both Rudolph or Jackson were high end prospects that needed more development time then I would either stand pat and wait or more preferably take a lesser risk of losing one of them with a lower cost move up deal. 

 

For me the priority is to get a high quality qb prospect in the pipeline this year, a year in which there are a group of very good prospects. Last year the Bills traded out of their spot thus bypassing either Mahomes or Watkins. The waiting game for another season has got to stop. There is no perfect option. Take the best option you can get when the qb pool is deeper than usual. If not now then when? Next year or the year after? You either get it done or you don't. The cycle of futility has to end. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Reading some of these posts I feel like I need to clarify a few things about Mayfield.

 

A)  He does not do "his best work" outside of the pocket.  Thats a complete and total myth, and it's a lazy assumption.  He threw from the pocket more than he threw from outside of the pocket.  He was just as accurate throwing from the pocket as he was throwing outside of it. 

 

 

It isn't a myth, or a lazy assumption.  Baker Mayfield can play from the pocket, there is absolutely no doubt about that.  He is accurate and he finds passing lanes, but what makes him special is his ability outside the pocket.  It is the same as Russell Wilson.  Wilson can beat you throwing from the pocket, has a terrific arm and is accurate from there.  But he is special outside the pocket.  If you are going to draft Mayfield and stick him inside the pocket 95% of the time you are going to get an effective Quarterback who can move an offense.  if you can find ways to mix in getting him outside the pocket you are getting a Quarterback who can be special.  

[PaattMaann]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't a myth, or a lazy assumption.  Baker Mayfield can play from the pocket, there is absolutely no doubt about that.  He is accurate and he finds passing lanes, but what makes him special is his ability outside the pocket.  It is the same as Russell Wilson.  Wilson can beat you throwing from the pocket, has a terrific arm and is accurate from there.  But he is special outside the pocket.  If you are going to draft Mayfield and stick him inside the pocket 95% of the time you are going to get an effective Quarterback who can move an offense.  if you can find ways to mix in getting him outside the pocket you are getting a Quarterback who can be special.  

 

yea yo, what this guy said! 

 

Akin to Aaron Rodgers ability to play outside of the pocket, roll outs/bootlegs will be his friend. His ability to play outside the pocket is an addition to his ability inside the pocket. 

[thenorthremembers]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't a myth, or a lazy assumption.  Baker Mayfield can play from the pocket, there is absolutely no doubt about that.  He is accurate and he finds passing lanes, but what makes him special is his ability outside the pocket.  It is the same as Russell Wilson.  Wilson can beat you throwing from the pocket, has a terrific arm and is accurate from there.  But he is special outside the pocket.  If you are going to draft Mayfield and stick him inside the pocket 95% of the time you are going to get an effective Quarterback who can move an offense.  if you can find ways to mix in getting him outside the pocket you are getting a Quarterback who can be special.  

 

I don't disagree he plays very well outside the pocket.  My argument is against those who say a majority of his throws come from outside the pocket, which isnt true.  I misunderstood what you were saying, my apologies.