What did you learn from the Smith Trade?

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

I don't think he's worth it, and I definitely don't think he is the 10th best QB

 

 

You may be right.

 

But this year, he was better than 10th.

 

And that's a lot of the reason he's getting the 5th best contract.

[reddogblitz]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You may be right.

 

But this year, he was better than 10th.

 

And that's a lot of the reason he's getting the 5th best contract.

 

I learned there is somebody else besides me that thinks Alex is a really good QB and worthy of paying for.

Edited February 3, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Doc Brown]

To draft a quarterback and sign a cheap veteran.  I still can't believe Smith got 72 million guaranteed.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

You may be right.

 

But this year, he was better than 10th.

 

And that's a lot of the reason he's getting the 5th best contract.

 

Well that and just when it came up.  The top 5 at end of each season is pretty much people who have re-signed in the previous 18 months.  The QB market never stands still any more.... whereas I think you go back 10 years and the QB contracts chart looked like a set of stairs it would go up, normalise for a couple of season and go up again, now it is just a constant upward curve year on year. 

[Kmart128]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Negative, I was talking about what the Chiefs got back for Smith.  Making the case that getting a 3rd round pick who has shown himself in the NFL may be equal to or better than a 2nd round pick that may or may not work out.

 

Tyrod isn't coming off a >4000 yd season with 26 TD

 

I said that Smith was more successful. I don't see him bringing in as much as Smith. But when you factor in age and price we could get atleast a 3rd in return.

[PolishDave]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

To draft a quarterback and sign a cheap veteran.  I still can't believe Smith got 72 million guaranteed.  

 

Redskins are notorious for bad decisions like this.    They overpaid bigtime.   It will cost their franchise years of mediocrity.   We know what that looks like.

On 2/1/2018 at 8:29 AM, GunnerBill said:

I don't think it tells you anything about the Browns view on this class.  They have zero legitimate options to throw out there week 1 if their drafted rookie is slow picking up the offense in camp.  The rumour is that their offer to re-sign Smith was a 2 year deal not a 4 year deal.  They are thinking "bridge" and they need to.... because if they draft Darnold and he isn't ready week 1 they are done for.  Tyrod to Cleveland is something that makes a ton of sense to me.  

 

If Tyrod does go to Cleveland I will **** myself.

 

I think it would be a tremendous move for Cleveland.   And with those two high picks, (even if they spend the first on a future QB) that team could turn their downtrend around and become a legit deep playoff threat as soon as next year.    Depends on coaching too of course.     Tyrod should be hoping for this.   

[MAJBobby]

On 1/31/2018 at 11:14 AM, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

 

The the Redskins still have NO IDEA what they are doing. 

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well that and just when it came up.  The top 5 at end of each season is pretty much people who have re-signed in the previous 18 months.  The QB market never stands still any more.... whereas I think you go back 10 years and the QB contracts chart looked like a set of stairs it would go up, normalise for a couple of season and go up again, now it is just a constant upward curve year on year. 

 

I haven't done the math on this, nor the research, but I think it would be interesting to see what the top5 -10 QB salaries are year to year over time as a % relation to the cap, which changes yearly as well.

 

Signing a guy for $15mil a year when it's about 20% of your cap is a bigger risk than giving a guy $20mil when it's $15% of the cap 

(Numbers made up, just for an example)

 

In reference to the bold, I'd like to see if it's a sharper upward QB salary curve vs the total cap increase (I think it is, just guessing though)

Edited February 3, 2018 by SouthNYfan

[Real McClappy]

I learned that The Redskins are not messing around at the QB position. Even though they destroyed any value of what Cousins could have brought them now. Pretty sure they knew he wanted out unless he got a king ransom which obviously we know Synder did not want to pay.

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You may be right.

 

But this year, he was better than 10th.

 

And that's a lot of the reason he's getting the 5th best contract.

 

I would easily take these 14 QBS over him...

 

Brees, Brady, Ben, Rodgers, Rivers, Wentz, Ryan, Wilson, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Garoloppo, Watson, Goff.

 

I understand that a few of them are unproven, but if someone told me who I would take, Cousins or Jimmy G/Watson, I would take Jimmy G and Watson all day.

 

So 32 NFL starting QBS and I would at least take 14 over him as of right now

[JMF2006]

I learned that the Bills had zero interest in this aging stop gap QB.

 

Which tells me they have a better plan for QB in 2018.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I haven't done the math on this, nor the research, but I think it would be interesting to see what the top5 -10 QB salaries are year to year over time as a % relation to the cap, which changes yearly as well.

 

Signing a guy for $15mil a year when it's about 20% of your cap is a bigger risk than giving a guy $20mil when it's $15% of the cap 

(Numbers made up, just for an example)

 

In reference to the bold, I'd like to see if it's a sharper upward QB salary curve vs the total cap increase (I think it is, just guessing though)

 

Yea I don't know thw answer. The way the cap is going up year on year is certainly influencing the QB market though, without doubt.