What did you learn from the Smith Trade?

[whatdrought]

16 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

All of these teams overpaying for top 15 (but not top 5) QBs will eventually regret it.  I don't agree with this whole "you have a QB or you have nothing" mentality that's so pervasive these days.  I'd rather have a bad-but-not-horrendous QB at a cheap price (Josh McCown?) than a good-but-not-great QB at an expensive price (Smith? Cousins? Flacco? Stafford?).  Basically, I either want a guy so good he can drag a bunch of stiffs to the Super Bowl (i.e., Aaron Rodgers, prime Peyton Manning, etc.), or a guy who comes cheap enough to build a Super Bowl contender around him.  If there was a real QB middle class, where you could sign a guy like Flacco or Dalton for like $14 million/year, then I'd be up for that as well, but that doesn't really exist right now.

 

This definitely makes sense, but there's one flaw with this. When it comes to the Superbowl and the playoffs, teams will find ways to put the game on the shoulders of the Quarterback (tune in Sunday for a front row seat of this)  so you have to have a QB who can at least handle that pressure and make the necessary plays needed to win. That's why Joe Flacco get's paid that way, because even though he reminds me of day old coffee during the regular season, he has shown poise and ability in the postseason (Though that part of his career might be over).

[aceman_16]

I learned that the Redskins' front office is a dumpster fire.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I learned that we need to get a young QB in the first round so that we get the extra year at his rookie salary, because these guys are getting VERY expensive!

 

(now let's just hope we can find a good one)

[Formerly Allan in MD]

That nothing has changed in DC.  Dan Snyder still thinks he can run and make all the decisions in his "organization," ergo he doesn't need to real GM. 

[Southern Bills Fan]

I learned that many of our "board experts" (26 Cut and Paste, who ranted "Smith sucks, Smith sucks, Smith sucks and anyone who disagrees is an idiot"), are nowhere to be found in this thread. And he is in EVERY thread. LOL

[billsredneck1]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

what i take out of this is that the redskins will remain the same or worse for the next few years.....just a different name on the qb jersey.

[flomoe]

I learned that The Pegulas might not be the smartest owners in the NFL but they sure as hell aren’t the dumbest.

Snyder has a firm grasp of that honor and isn’t letting go anytime soon.

[meistersinger]

8 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

NFLPA would probably never get on board with limiting how much their stars are paid.

 

They might if that left more money for the other players on the team. Being a vet with 4+ years of experience but not a super star is pretty tough now a days.  But absolutely, no way would they let the total pie shrink.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Kirk Cousins is getting a 120+ million dollar contract.

 

It will take a 2nd and a 5th to trade for AJ McCarron.

[mjt328]

Alex Smith just had his career-best season at age 33. 

In most seasons he is a Top 15-20 type guy.  This year, he was arguably among the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Odds are that Smith regresses back to his normal performance.  But the Redskins are banking that he's made a jump into the league's elite.

 

I think this bodes really very well for the Case Keenum market.

[GunnerBill]

I don't think it tells you anything about the Browns view on this class.  They have zero legitimate options to throw out there week 1 if their drafted rookie is slow picking up the offense in camp.  The rumour is that their offer to re-sign Smith was a 2 year deal not a 4 year deal.  They are thinking "bridge" and they need to.... because if they draft Darnold and he isn't ready week 1 they are done for.  Tyrod to Cleveland is something that makes a ton of sense to me.  

[Magox]

That those who thought that the Alex Smith would fetch less than 3rd round equivalent draft choice were seriously mistaken.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Kirk Cousins is getting a 120+ million dollar contract.

 

It will take a 2nd and a 5th to trade for AJ McCarron.

 

Way too much. 

[nucci]

22 hours ago, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

The Redskins don't know what they're doing?

[bobobonators]

23 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

That to me is a red flag as well, if that’s what you’re implying.

 

Washington wouldn’t just let cousins walk if they thought he’s the guy.

 

 

Or washington knew that Cousins wasnt going to resign with them, was unhappy in Washington, and wanted out. Why franchise him one last time at 33?million when you know hes unhappy and will 100% be gone the following year. The opportunity was there to get Alex so they took it. 

 

Cousins doesnt want to be there now. The skins had their chance to extend him a couple of years ago but didnt believe in him then and it became a fiasco. 

 

From day one Cousins has sorta been slighted by Washington. The skins drafted RGIII the same year and Cousins became an afterthought. Then it turns out Cousins was the guy they shouldve been focusing on. When he finally started for the skins he put up crazy numbers but the Skins still wanted to see more. 

 

Cousins bet on himself and he won. The Skins dragged their feet and are going to suffer in the long run for this. 

 

But all of this is irrelevant bc the main problem with the redskins is that their HC is extremely subpar and doesnt come close to being as good as Andy Reid. Alex Smith in Wash under Gruden is going to be an epic failure. 

[SaviorPeterman]

It's pretty clear this is still a QB driven league and teams are desperate for any semblance of 'franchise QB' play.

 

But in the end I still think the Redskins gave up way too much for a guy whose career body of work screams average at best and more of the quintessential 'system' QB vs a true franchise type of player.

 

This is why there is also hope that Beane is on the phone right now trying to get decent value for Taylor and fool another team into thinking he's a quality NFL starter.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I learned that Dan Snyder is still the owner of the Redskins, and he is still Dan Snyder.

[bobobonators]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I learned that Dan Snyder is still the owner of the Redskins, and he is still Dan Snyder.

Hes an idiot. And Gruden sucks. Bad combo. Really bad. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

That there are very few elite QB's in the NFL, when Alex Smith get $71 million guaranteed

[Cash]

22 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

This definitely makes sense, but there's one flaw with this. When it comes to the Superbowl and the playoffs, teams will find ways to put the game on the shoulders of the Quarterback (tune in Sunday for a front row seat of this)  so you have to have a QB who can at least handle that pressure and make the necessary plays needed to win. That's why Joe Flacco get's paid that way, because even though he reminds me of day old coffee during the regular season, he has shown poise and ability in the postseason (Though that part of his career might be over).

 

I don't really disagree with your main point, but here's why I stand by what I originally said:  How many times in recent history has the Super Bowl been won by a QB making roughly top 5 money who wasn't arguably a top 5 QB that year?  Only one I can think of is Peyton Manning in his last year, which is a weird situation - he had been a top 5 QB up until that year, and had definitely been worth the high-end $$$.  Maybe Eli in his 2nd Super Bowl win?  I don't have time to look up his contract details, but it easily could've been in the range I'm talking about

 

So basically, what's the point of having a Flacco type who can make the plays under pressure, if he costs so much that you'll never be able to get him to those pressure situations?  I think you're better off trying to find the next Flacco than paying an existing one in the hopes he takes a Rich Gannon leap.