What did you learn from the Smith Trade?

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

1 - $60+ million is the new "guaranteed" for QB's that are perceived as being good enough to start.

2 - The Redskins were either not convinced that Cousins is the guy, or convinced that he would have costed them a lot more than Alex Smith did.

3 - The Chiefs were convinced that Alex Smith was not the guy and that it was more important to get a talented young cornerback.

4 - The Chiefs were convinced that Mahomes is the guy going forward.

5 - With other free agents that will be out there like Cousins and two of the three of Keenum/Bridgewater/Bradford, there is no trade market for Taylor based on his contract this year.  I seriously doubt that anyone either pays his $16 guaranteed or renegotiates, presumably at an even higher guaranteed amount if they renegotiate an extension.

6 - There's nobody that I want as a "bridge" quarterback.  This team has had bridge quarterbacks for almost two decades.  If there is someone that's head and shoulders better than everyone else for Buffalo, you do what's needed to trade up to get him.  If not, you stay put.

 

The number thrown around on Twitter is $90M guaranteed for Cousins. That’s insanity

[K-9]

I learned many things from the smith trade including how to maintain proper forge temperature and that Valyrian steel can slay wights.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, billykay said:

What I learned is that I was wrong when I said in another thread that Alex would command more than a #3 draft pick.

 

Except he did, effectively?  They are getting a decent NFL-level player who was originally drafted in the 3rd.  Since the guy has proven he can play and fits a need for KC, I'd count that as equivalent to at least a 3rd, maybe a 2nd.  So I'll give you the "right" on that. 

 

I was wrong, I thought 2 - 2nds or more.

[Doc]

That ontogeny really doesn't recapitulate phylogeny. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

40 minutes ago, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

 

These are the points I took away with it

 

1) The QB market is going to be insane. I thought it was going to be anyway, and this now blows that out of the water.

3) Yeah...the Browns have the 1st overall pick (again) and are bidding heavily for a vet player. They don't do this if they are 100% sold on the class.

5) I definitely see the Giants and the Colts as possible trade partners. If the FO thinks they have their guy, and he makes it there, I am ok with betting the farm here.

[BuffaloRebound]

What I learned....

1. The Redskins are a bad organization.  Smith is not an upgrade over Cousins.  At best, it's a lateral move.
2. Cousins is gonna get a lot of money

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

That ontogeny really doesn't recapitulate phylogeny. 

[dave mcbride]

49 minutes ago, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

Smith was a top-10 qb this past season by any measure, I think. As we've seen, aging vet QBs tend to get better in their late 30s these days. I think it's a very good trade by the Redskins. Smith is good. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

That to me is a red flag as well, if that’s what you’re implying.

Washington wouldn’t just let cousins walk if they thought he’s the guy.

 

I'm not quite sure that's what it means.

It might.

 

It might also mean the Redskins are cheap or that they have a cap % in mind that they (in their team situation) feel they can dedicate to the QB position and Cousins exceeded it - so they moved to plan B.

 

Or it could mean that Cousins refused to sign for less than an exorbitant amount without being able to test the FA market, and they didn't like the $34+M/no future plan route.

 

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Smith was a top-10 qb this past season by any measure, I think. As we've seen, aging vet QBs tend to get better in their late 30s these days. I think it's a very good trade by the Redskins. Smith is good. 

 

Smith had a career year this year.    Look it up, first year in a 12 year career he's had more than 3500 yds passing and only 2nd year he's thrown more than 20 TDs.  As I said elsewhere, he played this year as though his jock was on fire and passing would put it out.

 

When a QB has a career year, the fair question is "why?" and "will it sustain?"  In the case of Smith, I do think he had better/more targets this year and a better OL.  But I also think he was "inspired" by the thought of being displaced by a rookie.  He was playing for a big contract.  So whether he sustains or not, now that he's paid, is an open question.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

26 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

That to me is a red flag as well, if that’s what you’re implying.

 

Washington wouldn’t just let cousins walk if they thought he’s the guy.

 

 

 

And then toss pick and player plus top 5 / 5 year major guaranteed money to Alex Smith whose ceiling everyone already has a firm grasp of... 

 

no matter what anyone outside of that organization thinks, it clear that the Redskins gave the Cousins contract to Alex Smith 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[NewEraBills]

7 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

And then toss pick and player plus top 5 / 5 year major guaranteed money to Alex Smith whose ceiling everyone already has a firm grasp of... 

 

no matter what anyone outside of that organization thinks, it clear that the Redskins gave the Cousins contract to Alex Smith 

1

 

This is exactly how I understand it.  Rather than allowing Cousin and his Agent to dictate terms to them the Skins said see ya.  We are trying to give you what we think is your market value and you are overvaluing yourself and services.  Bye Bye.

[Luxy312]

37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The number thrown around on Twitter is $90M guaranteed for Cousins. That’s insanity

 

There is no way I would pony up that type of money, unless the annual amount remained around $25m per year or so.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not quite sure that's what it means.

It might.

 

It might also mean the Redskins are cheap or that they have a cap % in mind that they (in their team situation) feel they can dedicate to the QB position and Cousins exceeded it - so they moved to plan B.

 

Or it could mean that Cousins refused to sign for less than an exorbitant amount without being able to test the FA market, and they didn't like the $34+M/no future plan route.

 

 

Smith had a career year this year.    Look it up, first year in a 12 year career he's had more than 3500 yds passing and only 2nd year he's thrown more than 20 TDs.  As I said elsewhere, he played this year as though his jock was on fire and passing would put it out.

 

When a QB has a career year, the fair question is "why?" and "will it sustain?"  In the case of Smith, I do think he had better/more targets this year and a better OL.  But I also think he was "inspired" by the thought of being displaced by a rookie.  He was playing for a big contract.  So whether he sustains or not, now that he's paid, is an open question.

Right! Isn't that what agents are for after all. The Redskins wanted to pay him in the range of Flacco, Tannehill  and several others in the 19-22M range, Cousins got 22 something last year I forget exactly. His agent said in FA I can get you at least 27M -like Stafford. Also, you can go to the organization of your choice that believes you are a franchise guy unlike Washingtons organization.

 

Alex Smith had so much stronger team around him than Cousins. I don't get the argument that Cousins hasn't shown he can win as some make. That team might have won 3-5 games without him given the dearth of talent and injuries sustained. 4 of 5 OL injured. Smith with Hunt, Hill, Kelcie  had a great year...but he wil likely regress, as that is out of line with his career performance.

10 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

This is exactly how I understand it.  Rather than allowing Cousin and his Agent to dictate terms to them the Skins said see ya.  We are trying to give you what we think is your market value and you are overvaluing yourself and services.  Bye Bye.

We shall see what the market really is! My guess is his market is what many  have said 25-30. So... he's not overvaluing himself. It's Washington that may have misjudged his market or just decided this is our valuation. They think he and Smith are a wash an 23 M was their ceiling. I can't fault that.

Edited January 31, 2018 by horned dogs

[BuffaloBillyG]

40 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

That to me is a red flag as well, if that’s what you’re implying.

 

Washington wouldn’t just let cousins walk if they thought he’s the guy.

 

 

There's more to it than that I think, but it's still a valid point. The Redskins FO has caught a ton of heat over the last 2 off-seasons for not locking Cousins up. But now they have a comparable player under a smaller contract then Cousins was reported to want and gave up peanuts to get him. A decent slot corner and a 3rd. And they could very well end up with a 3rd round comp pick for letting Cousins walk...right?

[BuffaLoko]

55 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

1 - $60+ million is the new "guaranteed" for QB's that are perceived as being good enough to start.

2 - The Redskins were either not convinced that Cousins is the guy, or convinced that he would have costed them a lot more than Alex Smith did.

3 - The Chiefs were convinced that Alex Smith was not the guy and that it was more important to get a talented young cornerback.

4 - The Chiefs were convinced that Mahomes is the guy going forward.

5 - With other free agents that will be out there like Cousins and two of the three of Keenum/Bridgewater/Bradford, there is no trade market for Taylor based on his contract this year.  I seriously doubt that anyone either pays his $16 guaranteed or renegotiates, presumably at an even higher guaranteed amount if they renegotiate an extension.

6 - There's nobody that I want as a "bridge" quarterback.  This team has had bridge quarterbacks for almost two decades.  If there is someone that's head and shoulders better than everyone else for Buffalo, you do what's needed to trade up to get him.  If not, you stay put.

 

all good points Luxy, wearing my tin hat  I guess number 3 and 4, had a lot to do with Andy´s lame duck game plan in 2nd half against the Titans, and explains why they stopped using the 2nd best rookie RB of the year in their attack; to me is like they are spoiled with so many playoff appearances and they did not care to blow it as a signal to move away from AS... just my 2 cents! ;c)

[papazoid]

that it's wise to have a quality backup QB

 

you can trade one down the road for a valuable return

[Luxy312]

2 minutes ago, BuffaLoko said:

all good points Luxy, wearing my tin hat  I guess number 3 and 4, had a lot to do with Andy´s lame duck game plan in 2nd half against the Titans, and explains why they stopped using the 2nd best rookie RB of the year in their attack; to me is like they are spoiled with so many playoff appearances and they did not care to blow it as a signal to move away from AS... just my 2 cents! ;c)

I don't disagree at all.  Andy goes WAY too conservative in playoff games.

[John from Riverside]

That Alex Smith will not be a buffalo bill next year

 

(im sorry guys....I know its "Duh")

[simpleman]

I still don't think Cousins is the franchise solution for the Bills. I don't see him even worth the guaranteed money that Smith got. I want a bridge QB and a true franchise QB. I want to grow our own QB.  Please Buffalo, do not make an even worse move than Washington just did. I liked Smith, but not at that ridiculous contract. I do not see Cousins as > Smith. Give me one of the Minny QBs at a more reasonable price. I think depending on price, that Bradford is now my new favorite for a bridge QB.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

There's more to it than that I think, but it's still a valid point. The Redskins FO has caught a ton of heat over the last 2 off-seasons for not locking Cousins up. But now they have a comparable player under a smaller contract then Cousins was reported to want and gave up peanuts to get him. A decent slot corner and a 3rd. And they could very well end up with a 3rd round comp pick for letting Cousins walk...right?

 

I'm sure that's what the Redskins believe they have - comparable player to Cousins, smaller contract, small trade cost.

I'm not sure that's what the Redskins actually have.

 

Time will tell.