What did you learn from the Smith Trade?

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Or washington knew that Cousins wasnt going to resign with them, was unhappy in Washington, and wanted out. Why franchise him one last time at 33?million when you know hes unhappy and will 100% be gone the following year. The opportunity was there to get Alex so they took it. 

 

Cousins doesnt want to be there now. The skins had their chance to extend him a couple of years ago but didnt believe in him then and it became a fiasco. 

 

From day one Cousins has sorta been slighted by Washington. The skins drafted RGIII the same year and Cousins became an afterthought. Then it turns out Cousins was the guy they shouldve been focusing on. When he finally started for the skins he put up crazy numbers but the Skins still wanted to see more. 

 

Cousins bet on himself and he won. The Skins dragged their feet and are going to suffer in the long run for this. 

 

But all of this is irrelevant bc the main problem with the redskins is that their HC is extremely subpar and doesnt come close to being as good as Andy Reid. Alex Smith in Wash under Gruden is going to be an epic failure. 

I guess time will tell on a lot of those points.

 

If I were the redskins though, I would not pay him 25-27 per year over 6 years with lots of guaranteed money.

 

I think they did what they had to do by franchising him multiple times to see if he can earn a long term contract, and in their eyes he wasn't good enough for it.

 

If he was good enough for them, they would have been more than happy to pay him the big money. Teams just don't let great QBS hit free agency because of money disputes.

 

And I got to agree with them. While I think Cousins is an above average QB, there is no way I would give him 25-27 per year.

[Rochesterfan]

On 1/31/2018 at 12:43 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

(Edited your post to focus on the most interesting point)

It is interesting news to me that the Browns were working on a trade and contract extension for Smith.

 

Unless you have more gouge on what they offered, not sure it means they thought they'd be better for 4 years with Smith.  Maybe they offered more of a bridge contract with possibly higher per year, but less guaranteed and an "out" after 2 years to allow them to dump him in favor of an emerging starter.  Kind of what I thought the Redskins had done until the contract details emerged

 

I agree - the stuff I have seen have suggested the Browns were willing to trade for Smith and perhaps do a short term deal, but I do not think they wanted a 4 year extension (my opinion).

 

The Browns are drafting a QB - that is why the new GM is there.  They would not have given Smith that extension and waste 4 years of QB time at that cost - again my opinion.  

 

The Redskins were not in a place to get a top guy - so the four years for Smith makes more sense - play him and in a year or two draft a guy.

[Just Joshin']

I learned that many people on the board know less then they think.

[BillsFan4]

On 1/31/2018 at 12:14 PM, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

 

 

Im not exactly sure what I learned from the Cousins trade, except that he seems to be valued higher by NFL teams than he is by fans and media. 

 

 

1) I definitely think Alex Smith is a top 10-15 QB. I'd put him top 15 comfortably.

Top 10 last year for sure. 

But yes, that contract was pretty damn high for him. As of now, I believe he is the #5 highest paid QB, and that's just insane. 

 

 

 

2) I'm not sure if any players rights have been traded in the NFL recently, have they?

 

Alex Smith was actually still under contract for 1 more year.

 

I think The Redskins just wanted to make sure they had him for more than 1 year (without having to use the franchise tag 2x in a row again like the whole Cousins situation) at a price they felt comfortable with, in order to give up what they did in the trade. 

 

 

3) I am also not sure that the Browns are not sold on the rookie QB class just because they tried to trade for Smith.

 

Mary Kay Cabot, who is usually pretty plugged in with the Browns, said that the Browns were willing to give up a 2nd but were not willing to make the finaicial cmmitment to Smith that Washington did.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2018/01/browns_tried_to_trade_for_alex.html

Quote

The Chiefs will receive a 2018 third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller on Wednesday, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Dorsey offered his former team one of the Browns two second-round picks, but the Browns didn't want to make the financial commitment the Redskins did because they have the No. 1 overall and are likely to draft a quarterback.

 

I think they were (and still are) just looking for a good veteran bridge QB for the short term. My guess is that Dorsey wants to build up the team first, to have a stronger supporting cast for a young QB before throwing him into the fire. 

 

 

4) Beane has done some good work clearing cap space in a short amount of time. They will take their lumps this year (dead cap of what, $29M?) but then 2019 looks excellent with $70+ M. They may not have the amount of cap space some teams like Cleveland and the NY Jets do, but we have enough that we could fit Cousins in, and they could always structure it so that the cap hit is lower this year and higher in 2019 when they have much more space. 

 

And like you said, we have more cap space than the Broncos do who I think will be big competition for Cousins. 

 

I think Minnesota is a dark horse candidate for Cousins. IIRC they have like 50+M in cap space and just went to the NFC Championship. They have a great young defense and team. If they decide they'd rather have Cousins than Keenum or Bridgewater, I think they stand a very good chance at landing him. 

 

 

5) we will know a lot more after the first week of the new league year when free agency and trade windows open back up, but yes as of now I see 3 to 4 teams in front of us that need a QB. I still count the NY Giants because I could easily see them taking one at #2 or trading back with a team in the top 6 to still have a shot at their RB if they choose not to take a QB. 

I do think #3 is a good trade target, just not sure if the Bills have the assets to do it, especially if competing against teams much higher in the draft order than they are. I am definitely curious to see how this draft shakes out though. I can see as many as 5 QBs going off the board in the 1st. 

 

BTW Good post, Virgil. I enjoyed reading through it. 

[Zerovoltz]

Something to consider going forward -

 

If you are a team that doesn't have the "franchise" QB....and getting one of them costs a very lopsided value against your cap vs. the other 52 on your roster, it will not be long now at all, in this QB market, that some of the shrewder teams in the "have not" QB category, will revert to old school ground and pound.  Most teams place a premium on pass rushers and DB who have cover skills.  A team with no QB could counter the trend with big road graders on the O-line.  Get a couple or RB or even three horses.  Get some WR who will block, then run at these defenses with undersized defenders and bunches of DB's.  The era of the great middle linebackers is long gone and such a team could potentially roll todays defenses into the ground if they built such a team....you get yourself a cheap QB who can run and throw playaction passes, and you could compete without participating in the absurd QB market.  You only pay that QB the lopsided contract if he is in fact Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and you can throw 52 other guys on the field with him that he elevates to being very good every year no matter who they are.    

 

In such a market, you could get the best blocking WR's best blocking TE's, revive the FB position and get the best one of those, and your QB would be so much less money because you wouldn't need him to be the focus.  

 

Won't surprise me to see two or three teams who don't have a stud try and take advantage of this skewed market in such a way.

[Bing Bong]

How about we keep Tyrod and improve our team with these picks and make the playoffs a better team. So.. thanks for the info on why quarterbacks are overvalued.. Alex Smith sucks.

9 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said:

It's pretty clear this is still a QB driven league and teams are desperate for any semblance of 'franchise QB' play.

 

But in the end I still think the Redskins gave up way too much for a guy whose career body of work screams average at best and more of the quintessential 'system' QB vs a true franchise type of player.

 

This is why there is also hope that Beane is on the phone right now trying to get decent value for Taylor and fool another team into thinking he's a quality NFL starter.

that's a good point, it's easy to prove your quarterback is a quality NFL starter when he doesn't singlehandedly lose a game throwing a historic number of picks 2 of which were the worst footwork/jumping back motions and throwing mechanics I have ever seen.

 

Oh was he unblocked by Joey Bosa? Tyrod was unblocked by Von Miller. Remind me what happened against Denver.. and grow a brain sometime in the offseason.

[Hurricane Marv]

8 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

How about we keep Tyrod and improve our team with these picks and make the playoffs a better team. So.. thanks for the info on why quarterbacks are overvalued.. Alex Smith sucks.

 

Alex Smith has 30,000 passing yards in the NFL, and has been to the playoffs five times.  He's 34.

 

Sorry man, but I don't know how anybody can objectively watch his play and just say "he sucks".

 

Edit - Actually he's 33.  Anyway, Alex Smith has been legit for like 5 years now, I have no idea why people are still struggling with the fact that he's a good QB.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Hurricane Marv

[Doc]

9 minutes ago, Hurricane Marv said:

Alex Smith has 30,000 passing yards in the NFL, and has been to the playoffs five times.  He's 34.

 

Sorry man, but I don't know how anybody can objectively watch his play and just say "he sucks".

 

Edit - Actually he's 33.  Anyway, Alex Smith has been legit for like 5 years now, I have no idea why people are still struggling with the fact that he's a good QB.

 

Not many are saying he sucks or isn't a good QB.  But is he better than Kirk Cousins, who they had, never mind losing a potential stud CB? 

[Hurricane Marv]

51 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not many are saying he sucks or isn't a good QB.  But is he better than Kirk Cousins, who they had, never mind losing a potential stud CB? 

 

The guy that I quoted said he sucks.  I'm not arguing that it was a good trade, I'm arguing that he doesn't suck.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Something to consider going forward -

 

If you are a team that doesn't have the "franchise" QB....and getting one of them costs a very lopsided value against your cap vs. the other 52 on your roster, it will not be long now at all, in this QB market, that some of the shrewder teams in the "have not" QB category, will revert to old school ground and pound.  Most teams place a premium on pass rushers and DB who have cover skills.  A team with no QB could counter the trend with big road graders on the O-line.  Get a couple or RB or even three horses.  Get some WR who will block, then run at these defenses with undersized defenders and bunches of DB's.  The era of the great middle linebackers is long gone and such a team could potentially roll todays defenses into the ground if they built such a team....you get yourself a cheap QB who can run and throw playaction passes, and you could compete without participating in the absurd QB market.  You only pay that QB the lopsided contract if he is in fact Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and you can throw 52 other guys on the field with him that he elevates to being very good every year no matter who they are.    

 

In such a market, you could get the best blocking WR's best blocking TE's, revive the FB position and get the best one of those, and your QB would be so much less money because you wouldn't need him to be the focus.  

 

Won't surprise me to see two or three teams who don't have a stud try and take advantage of this skewed market in such a way.

 

This was the Rex Ryan / Greg Roman plan with Tyrod here tweaked slightly to match the runs Shady does best.  It worked too on offense.  He just made a total mess of the defense.  

[Thurman#1]

On 2/1/2018 at 2:14 AM, Virgil said:

This isn't specifically about Alex Smith, moreso the entire NFL offseason and how this one move really set the table for a lot other moves.  Also, we are starting to see moves that you typically only see in the MLB.

 

1. The value of the QB is as high as we've ever seen it.  Let's just say that Smith is a 10-15 rated QB, which is generous in my opinion.  For him to net that much guaranteed money is crazy to me.  Getting 23 mil a year for his performance is going to reset the entire QB market, moreso than Carr and Stafford.  From that, I think we will see:
   1. Cousins may get the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL History
   2. Cousins may get 30 mil a year
   3. If McCaron's hit the market, I think he will eclipse the crazy contract that Osweiler got.
2. Trading the rights of players could become a thing
   1. The Chiefs were cash strapped and if it weren't such a high demand position, Smith could easily have been cut or asked to renegotiate.  In recent years, most other teams would have just waited for that to happen.  Not only was he not cut, but he was traded for a really high value just for the rights to him.  It also happened with Garropolo.  Maybe there's more of a precedent for this that I'm not thinking of, but it feels more like the baseball All-Star trading deadline where teams are getting players with limited contracts left in hopes to get a leg up on negotiating rights or use of the franchise tag.
   2. While we all have mixed opinions on Tyrod, I think most would agree he would be a solid backup and an improvement for some teams as a starter.  I still don't understand the cap restrictions with trading him because of his option, but I think there would be a market for him as well.  If Smith got a 3rd and a player, we could possibly get a 4th for TT.  Whether that would be worth it because of the cap hit, I don't know.
3. The Browns aren't sold on the rookie QB class
   1. The reports said that 6 teams were interested in Smith, but only the Browns and Redskins were working on a trade.  Since the Smith contract extension was announced so quickly, it has to be assumed that the extension was a prerequisite of the trade.  Assuming more, the Browns knew that Smith wanted and extension with the trade and were in on that.  TO ME, that would indicate that they were better with Smith as their starter for the next 4-5 years than using either of their top 4 picks on a QB.  Yes, it's the Browns, but still interesting to me.  It also shows that they are officially looking for a QB upgrade, which some did think they might try to go with what they had.
4. Of the teams needing QB's, we have the 2nd most cap space
   1. If we do want Cousins, we are in good shape to go after him from a total cap perspective.  The Broncos would have to cut and they have some expiring contracts.  However, I believe we have the most expiring contracts of any team, so we will need some cap.  If Glenn checks out as healthy, I could see him traded since McDermott has his love affair with Dawkins.  But, I again don't know the cap hit of that trade.
5. The number of teams needing a QB dropped by 1 and I think other teams are better off than they would want you to think. 
   1. Browns (Picks 1 and 4) - Will take a QB
   2. Giants - (Pick 2) - Has a lot of holes and say they want to stick with Eli - Trade Back Partner #1
   3. Colts - Pick 3 - I don't think McDaniels takes that job unless he knows Luck is good to go - Trade Back Partner #2
   4. Broncos - Pick 5 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Could also make cap space and go after Cousins)
   5. Jets - Pick 6 - Need a QB and could trade up to make sure no one jumps them (Definitely has cap space for Cousins)
   6. Picks 7-14 all have QB's and only the Cardinals at 15 could use a QB.
      1. With all of that, Cousins has to go somewhere, which leaves 3 teams ahead of us that need a QB.  As it stands, if Allen is taken by one of them, that would leave us with Darnold, Mayfield, or Rosen as the leftover, which I'm sure most of us would be fine with.

 

The most important thing I've learned from last night is that this offseason is going to be a lot of fun and I'm glad I have this place to talk it out with people

 

 

 

The thing is, Alex Smith wasn't a 10 - 15 range guy this year. He was easily top ten. Hell, his passer rating led the league. He played terrific this year. People seem to want to ignore this so they can be amazed at what he's getting. And you fall into this category, at least in this post. He played terrific this year. 1st in passer rating. 9th in TDs. That's not what you would have expected from Alex Smith. 1st in the league in TD/INT ratio, at least as far down as I checked (I didn't look at guys with fewer than 10 TDs.) 9th in YPG, while 13th in attempts. That's really good. 5th in YPA. 

 

Again, he was far far better than a 10 - 15 range guy this year. If he hadn't had this year, he wouldn't have gotten that contract.

 

It's hard to guess how he'll perform next year, the way he has for the past five to six years or where he did last year. If I had to guess, it'd be about halfway between the two. He raised his level of play. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

The thing is, Alex Smith wasn't a 10 - 15 range guy this year. He was easily top ten. Hell, his passer rating led the league. He played terrific this year. People seem to want to ignore this so they can be amazed at what he's getting. And you fall into this category, at least in this post. He played terrific this year. 1st in passer rating. 9th in TDs. That's not what you would have expected from Alex Smith. 1st in the league in TD/INT ratio, at least as far down as I checked (I didn't look at guys with fewer than 10 TDs.) 9th in YPG, while 13th in attempts. That's really good. 5th in YPA. 

 

Again, he was far far better than a 10 - 15 range guy this year. If he hadn't had this year, he wouldn't have gotten that contract.

 

It's hard to guess how he'll perform next year, the way he has for the past five to six years or where he did last year. If I had to guess, it'd be about halfway between the two. He raised his level of play. 

 

I think what helped was KC better understanding the weapons you need to put around him.  When your QB is Alex Smith your playmakers need to be guys who are a threat to go the distance when they get the ball in their hands.  But without doubt his first half of 2017 in particular... the first 6-8 games or so... was the best period of his career.  

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

I guess time will tell on a lot of those points.

 

If I were the redskins though, I would not pay him 25-27 per year over 6 years with lots of guaranteed money.

 

I think they did what they had to do by franchising him multiple times to see if he can earn a long term contract, and in their eyes he wasn't good enough for it.

 

If he was good enough for them, they would have been more than happy to pay him the big money. Teams just don't let great QBS hit free agency because of money disputes.

 

And I got to agree with them. While I think Cousins is an above average QB, there is no way I would give him 25-27 per year.

 

 

Cousins is worth that and more.

 

You can't judge QB contracts by slotting a guy in at his current level. New contracts make old contracts look sick in this era of the constantly rising salary cap. At any position, but especially at QB, if you want to get the 10th best QB with a new contract, you'd better be willing to pay him somewhere around the 3rd best salary. Look at Carr, he's not 2nd best in the league. Stafford isn't best. Smith isn' t5th. New contracts cost more. 

 

Washington should have paid him a year or two ago. I believe that Smith is going to be good but not as good as Cousins and that when the Burgundy and Gold nation looks at this ten years down the road they're going to put it right in there with Snyder's legacy of a river of ego-fuelled screwups.

 

 

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think what helped was KC better understanding the weapons you need to put around him.  When your QB is Alex Smith your playmakers need to be guys who are a threat to go the distance when they get the ball in their hands.  But without doubt his first half of 2017 in particular... the first 6-8 games or so... was the best period of his career.  

 

 

Agreed that they put him in a good situation. But yeah, from what I saw it wasn't just that.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Thurman#1

[reddogblitz]

On 1/31/2018 at 9:54 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Except he did, effectively?  They are getting a decent NFL-level player who was originally drafted in the 3rd.  Since the guy has proven he can play and fits a need for KC, I'd count that as equivalent to at least a 3rd, maybe a 2nd.  So I'll give you the "right" on that. 

 

I was wrong, I thought 2 - 2nds or more.

 

If you're talking about Alex Smith, he was the first player taken in the 2005 draft.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

If you're talking about Alex Smith, he was the first player taken in the 2005 draft.

 

No he was talking about Fuller. 

[reddogblitz]

On 1/31/2018 at 10:37 AM, Luxy312 said:

I don't disagree at all.  Andy goes WAY too conservative in playoff games.

 

The Marcus TD pass to himself and Travis getting hurt and replaced by a guy that couldn't catch a cold didn't help either.

[BillsFan130]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Cousins is worth that and more.

 

You can't judge QB contracts by slotting a guy in at his current level. New contracts make old contracts look sick in this era of the constantly rising salary cap. At any position, but especially at QB, if you want to get the 10th best QB with a new contract, you'd better be willing to pay him somewhere around the 3rd best salary. Look at Carr, he's not 2nd best in the league. Stafford isn't best. Smith isn' t5th. New contracts cost more. 

 

Washington should have paid him a year or two ago. I believe that Smith is going to be good but not as good as Cousins and that when the Burgundy and Gold nation looks at this ten years down the road they're going to put it right in there with Snyder's legacy of a river of ego-fuelled screwups.

 

 

 

 

I don't think he's worth it, and I definitely don't think he is the 10th best QB

[Kmart128]

Learned that we could get a ton in return if we trade Tyrod. Smith is more successful but Tyrod is younger and will come cheaper...

[reddogblitz]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This was the Rex Ryan / Greg Roman plan with Tyrod here tweaked slightly to match the runs Shady does best.  It worked too on offense.  He just made a total mess of the defense.  

 

Woulda worked (to scarecrow song) if I only had a D ...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

If you're talking about Alex Smith, he was the first player taken in the 2005 draft.

 

Negative, I was talking about what the Chiefs got back for Smith.  Making the case that getting a 3rd round pick who has shown himself in the NFL may be equal to or better than a 2nd round pick that may or may not work out.

9 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

Learned that we could get a ton in return if we trade Tyrod. Smith is more successful but Tyrod is younger and will come cheaper...

 

Tyrod isn't coming off a >4000 yd season with 26 TD