The Cousins Plan

[NastyNateSoldiers]

6 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

I hope Denver, Arizona, New York, Washington and Cleveland don’t figure that out too. A 5 team bidding war could really drive up the price. 

I think the money will be secondary when it comes to Cousins he knows he's gonna get the cash he wants.  I think the fit is the most important thing here . If by some chance the deal gets passed 30mil per i wouldnt blame the Bills for backing out. 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

I hope Denver, Arizona, New York, Washington and Cleveland don’t figure that out too. A 5 team bidding war could really drive up the price. 

I think in six months Cousins will be the highest paid player in the league.    It's always worked that way - become a free agent at the right time.   

 

The Pegulas have already shown us once that they aren't afraid to pay what it takes.   They paid $1.2 billion for a franchise that almost everyone agreed wasn't worth more than $1 billion. 

 

Any team that has a serious interest in the guy, any team that really wants him, goes into the auction knowing he's going to pay a price that looks unreasonably high.   

 

The Bills have shown pretty good discipline when their players have become free agents.   Byrd, Gilmore, etc. - the Bills have let them walk when the Price got too high.   QB is the most important position on the team.   If you see a good one, you have to expect to pay more for him than seems right.  

 

We'll see.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's the conclusion I've come to.  These guys love picks, so if they like Cousins they sign him, unload Taylor and if necessary Glenn to give them enough cap room, draft a lot of talent this year, live through limited cap space this year, and then plug remaining holes in 2019.   It seems to be the lowest risk way to go.  

I think we only save 4.5 mil by releasing Glenn i don't think that's enough savings consideration his replacement will cost at least that much 5mil per and that's for a 3rd teir tackle. 

[Batman1876]

1 minute ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I think the money will be secondary when it comes to Cousins he knows he's gonna get the cash he wants.  I think the fit is the most important thing here . If by some chance the deal gets passed 30mil per i wouldnt blame the Bills for backing out. 

So your hope is that he’d come to Baffalo for 28 per year rather than Cleveland or NY for 35. He’d take a 35 million dollar discount (over 5 years) to come here. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

So your hope is that he’d come to Baffalo for 28 per year rather than Cleveland or NY for 35. He’d take a 35 million dollar discount (over 5 years) to come here. 

I'm thinking most teams will tap out at about 30per . If it gets to 35 of course he'll take it.  But i think teams will have that line they don't want to cross so the major decision will be the fit for Cousins where does he feel he can succeed the most at. 

[gobillsinytown]

1 minute ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'm thinking most teams will tap out at about 30per . If it gets to 35 of course he'll take it.  But i think teams will have that line they don't want to cross so the major decision will be the fit for Cousins where does he feel he can succeed the most at. 

 

Is 28 to 35 mill per year the actual range that's being talked about?  Wow..........Cousins is a good QB but that would be really breaking the bank.  

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'm thinking most teams will tap out at about 30per . If it gets to 35 of course he'll take it.  But i think teams will have that line they don't want to cross so the major decision will be the fit for Cousins where does he feel he can succeed the most at. 

35 would be nothing to the Browns and Jets who are both sitting on 100mil and both really need to win now. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

35 would be nothing to the Browns and Jets who are both sitting on 100mil and both really need to win now. 

If that's the case we did our job and let them severely overpay. If its the Jets or Browns this would be good for us because it opens the door for a trade up. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I think we only save 4.5 mil by releasing Glenn i don't think that's enough savings consideration his replacement will cost at least that much 5mil per and that's for a 3rd teir tackle. 

I think you're missing the point.   They won't replace him in free agency.   They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million. 

 

First, you have to ask "replace what?"   He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs.   Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season.   Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money.   

 

Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn.   

 

Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move.  If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much.  THey're fine in 2019 and beyond.   

 

I don't see the problem.  

3 minutes ago, gobillsinytown said:

 

Is 28 to 35 mill per year the actual range that's being talked about?  Wow..........Cousins is a good QB but that would be really breaking the bank.  

I can't imagine it going beyond $30.  But as I said, I think he'll be the highest paid in the league, so that'll put him over $25.   

 

If you want a top 10 QB, he's the only one who's even arguably there and available.   I'd expect five serious buyers, a couple dropping out along the way.   That's going to push the price.   

[NastyNateSoldiers]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I think you're missing the point.   They won't replace him in free agency.   They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million. 

 

First, you have to ask "replace what?"   He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs.   Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season.   Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money.   

 

Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn.   

 

Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move.  If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much.  THey're fine in 2019 and beyond.   

 

I don't see the problem.  

We also have 1 corner on our roster as well as many other major holes. Cordy staying put won't affect whether or not we will sign Cousins we have the money for both. With 3yrs remaining and 23mil left on his deal if healthy that's a steal for a LT in todays market.  

[Batman1876]

28 is the transition tag, 35 is the franchise tag. That is where I am getting my estimate from. I am of the belief that teams regularly over pay in free agency and so 35 is not out of the question. Especially if the Browns and Jets make a go at him. Both have plenty of reasons to. 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

We also have 1 corner on our roster as well as many other major holes. Cordy staying put won't affect whether or not we will sign Cousins we have the money for both. With 3yrs remaining and 23mil left on his deal if healthy that's a steal for a LT in todays market.  

Don't get me wrong.   I'd like to keep Cordy.   I don't have a problem with him.   And I don't need know if they need to move him in order to have room for Cousins.   All I'm saying is that if the Bills want Cousins and if they need cap room, I don't think they'll have any problem deciding to move him.  

 

I don't think, for example, that Beane would agree with you that Cordy is a "steal" at that price.   I think he'd tell you that difference between what he gives you and what a $3 million tackle gives you isn't worth $4 million.  I think he'd tell you that their are only about five offensive tackles in the league he'd ever consider "steals" at some price; the rest of them aren't special enough to worry make them worth a premium over completely ordinary talent.   I think he'd tell you he'd just as soon have a $35 million QB who's really good and have 52 guys worth $3 million a piece.   I don't think he'd lose any sleep over losing Glenn.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're missing the point.   They won't replace him in free agency.   They'll replace him the draft, and it'll cost WAY less than $5 million. 

 

First, you have to ask "replace what?"   He barely played last season, and the Bills went to the playoffs.   Glenn leaving doesn't leave anything like the gaping hole Wood does, who played every snap last season.   Whatever cap saving they get on Glenn is found money.   

 

Second, they were going to be drafting linemen already, so their plans don't change much if they lose Glenn.   

 

Third, if they write a big check to get Cousins, that's a long-term move.  If they're squeezed for cap space in 2018, that doesn't matter so much.  THey're fine in 2019 and beyond.   

 

I don't see the problem.  

I can't imagine it going beyond $30.  But as I said, I think he'll be the highest paid in the league, so that'll put him over $25.   

 

If you want a top 10 QB, he's the only one who's even arguably there and available.   I'd expect five serious buyers, a couple dropping out along the way.   That's going to push the price.   

 

It's hard to say - hes the same age as stafford and had similar numbers last year with worse WRs.  He performed better than Carr, Flacco, Ryan, and many of the others in his bracket.  Stafford got 5 years 135 million - an open market would likely dictate he get more than that.  He could definitely approach 30m per year.

34 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Don't get me wrong.   I'd like to keep Cordy.   I don't have a problem with him.   And I don't need know if they need to move him in order to have room for Cousins.   All I'm saying is that if the Bills want Cousins and if they need cap room, I don't think they'll have any problem deciding to move him.  

 

I don't think, for example, that Beane would agree with you that Cordy is a "steal" at that price.   I think he'd tell you that difference between what he gives you and what a $3 million tackle gives you isn't worth $4 million.  I think he'd tell you that their are only about five offensive tackles in the league he'd ever consider "steals" at some price; the rest of them aren't special enough to worry make them worth a premium over completely ordinary talent.   I think he'd tell you he'd just as soon have a $35 million QB who's really good and have 52 guys worth $3 million a piece.   I don't think he'd lose any sleep over losing Glenn.  

 

Just adds to our consistent flow of dead money.  We're already at about 18 million dead cap for 2018.  I get that the previous regime made some mistakes - but at some point its nice to just have the player play for the money that you paid him.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, gobillsinytown said:

B'

Is 28 to 35 mill per year the actual range that's being talked about?  Wow..........Cousins is a good QB but that would be really breaking the bank.  

 

While its possible, I find it really hard to believe that this year any team is going to pay him $30M or more.  Last year?  Sure I can see it, but not this year.  LOTS going against Cousins right now people are not considering:

 

1. Redskins, who know him best, wont pay him that much to stay and have been reluctant to give him a long term deal in the first place.  They did this dance 3 years now.  
2. There are an unusual number of veteran QB's available potentially this year that could be decent to good starters for teams while they build the other holes on the team.  Besides Cousins potentially, you have Smith, probably 2 of the Vikes QB's, McCown, and even Kap is available if a team wanted to sign him.  Not to mention Tyrod if the Bills go in another direction. 
3. This is a deeper than usual QB class in the draft as well.  So if a team doesn't want to pay Kirk or sign a vet for the short term, they can look at the draft in the first 2 rounds where guys will be there that are solid to great prospects.
4. This years playoffs showed had Bortles, Keenum, and Foles...all QB fodder a year ago...as 3 of the final 4 QB's all outlasting guys like Ryan, Brees, Rothlisberger, Newton, etc.  The NFL is a copy cat league, just like how Zeke immediate impact in Dallas made RB's value rise again to where this will probably be the 3rd straight year a RB goes top 5.  
5. Redskins haven't had a lot of success as a team with Cousins despite the numbers.  This isnt all on Cousins, but it definitely is in the back of peoples heads when they see Washington not willing to pay him that amount and a record that isn't inspiring.  
6. Many of the popular choices for him already solved the QB situation (SF) or pick high in the draft and have shots at good cheaper prospects in the draft. 

 

All in all, there is CERTAINLY a market for Cousins, and he wont be cheap.  But I don't think its going to be as crazy as some think because there is still risk and teams have a lot of other choices this year.  Last year when the FA market seemed meh and the QB draft class was shallow he would have been a much richer commodity.  But I think this year he does a deal between $25M and $27M because of those reasons.  Will be quite surprised if its more than that.  And at that price, the Bills should strongly consider it.  

 

NOTE:  I would also add that Bills are a pretty good match and he is a good match for us.  We have a big WR, good TE, great RB already...and 5 picks in first 3 rounds while all coming off a Playoff Birth.  We would immediately be a contender with all that, and he will know that.  

Edited January 30, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

 

Just adds to our consistent flow of dead money.  We're already at about 18 million dead cap for 2018.  I get that the previous regime made some mistakes - but at some point its nice to just have the player play for the money that you paid him.

The flow of consistent dead money results from two things:  Some mistakes and turnover in the front office.  When you have four head coaches in six years, and three GMs, there are going to be changes, and changes created dead cap money.   I think the Pegulas hired Beane and McDermott for the long term, and getting to the playoffs in 2017 makes them pretty secure for the next two years and probably three.   If they drop a bundle on Cousins and he doesn't bust, the dead space will end, because there won't be a lot of other big contracts.  Dareus and Watkins are gone, Clay and McCoy will have run out.  

[Captain Murica]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't foresee Cousins being a Bill, but looking at the other options:

 

Denver: About the same cap space as Buffalo (for now...sounds like they plan to release Aqib Talib and possibly Demaryius or Sanders), I think Denver is a low-key bad situation though; old team that's rumored to be cutting one of the few weapons Cousins would have to throw to

 

Arizona: Nowhere near the cap space needed to sign him

 

Washington: Definitely have the cap space. Is their relationship too fractured at this point though? Not to mention that's another team with poor weapons around him and a pretty bad defense

 

NYJ: Seems like a good fit if the Jets are interested; I've seen rumors stating that the Jets plan to bypass free agency and focus on the draft to address the QB position though. But hypothetically speaking, they have a lot of cap space, a pretty talented defense, and a couple promising WRs. They'll need all of the cap space they have to fill other holes though.

 

Cleveland: Probably unlikely due to their reputation, but I think it's his best option honestly. $111 million in cap space, an extremely talented WR in Gordon, a promising young TE in Njoku, a great receiving RB (which Cousins loves) in Duke, a talented but injury prone WR in Coleman, a good O-Line, and a pretty solid defense (they really just need an upgrade in the LB core and maybe one corner). Sign Cousins, take Barkley and Fitzpatrick/Edmunds/Roquon, probably sign one of the solid WRs in free agency and that team could be pretty good pretty quickly IMO.

 

 

This is the one team outside of Washington re-signing Cousins I think will actually be making a conscious effort to sign him. My reasons are they have failed to develop either Petty or Hackenberg, and that being said Bowles is on borrowed time. I think he could be in the win now mind set after getting a pass for the past 2 seasons. He signed an extension, but that doesn't mean much. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get why you are on team trade up, but I think you need to reduce your expectations of one.  Losing Wood only further decreased the odds we will make a costly trade up.  Beane wants to build through the draft, you only make that harder when you trade a lot of assets to get one player..

 

I think Wood has zero effect. I believe this GM understands you can fill every other hole on  the roster and until you have a Franchise QB you are pissing in the wind. The Bills are trading up. Book it. 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Captain Murica said:

 

 

This is the one team outside of Washington re-signing Cousins I think will actually be making a conscious effort to sign him. My reasons are they have failed to develop either Petty or Hackenberg, and that being said Bowles is on borrowed time. I think he could be in the win now mind set after getting a pass for the past 2 seasons. He signed an extension, but that doesn't mean much. 

Do you think the Jets are in a better position going forward than the Bills?  I'd call them about even, but I don't really know. 

 

My guess is the Cousins doesn't like living in DC and wouldn't like NYC.   My guess is he'd like to get back to the midwest.  

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Wood has zero effect. I believe this GM understands you can fill every other hole on  the roster and until you have a Franchise QB you are pissing in the wind. The Bills are trading up. Book it. 

Really depends on whether they fall in love with anyone.   If they fall in love with Cousins, they pay a fortune and get him.   Fall in love with Darnold, pay a fortune in picks to move up.  

 

Anyone's guess.  

[BuffaloRebound]

Cousins will have a bunch of teams willing to pay him close to $30m per year and says he cares about winning.  Highly doubt he goes to the Jets where Bowles is a dead coach walking.  I know we all love to trash the Bills, but Cousins won't have a lot if any choices where the Coach and GM situation is as stable as Buffalo's.  Ending the 17 year drought bought McBeane at least 3-4 years.  Cleveland is a horrible situation but on top of that Hue Jackson has close to a 95% probability of getting fired after this season.  And as much as Denver could be the best situation for Cousins, their head coach is definitely on the hot seat. 

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Wood has zero effect. I believe this GM understands you can fill every other hole on  the roster and until you have a Franchise QB you are pissing in the wind. The Bills are trading up. Book it. 

 

I won't say that we definitely won't make a big move up, and I wouldn't even hate it if we did, I just think the odds are low because Beane clearly covets his draft picks and wants to build in the draft.  I am just skeptical Beane will pull that trigger, but I definitely would expect them to explore it.  Who knows, maybe we can get somewhere for just our 2 first rounders this year, I am just not sure thats enough to do it and I am not convinced Beane will pay more than that.  

 

Like I have said before in other strains, if Roquan slips into the teens I can actually see us moving up and not taking a QB and grabbing him.  Likely wouldn't cost us both our firsts to do so and we can still go QB with our other first.

 

Its gonna be a fun offseason though leading up to FA and the draft to see how it all plays out.  Lots of directions it can go, we are in a good position this year.  Good staff in place, solid cap room, and a load of draft assets to really do whatever Beane wants to do for the most part.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Alphadawg7