The Cousins Plan

[Batman1876]

I think people are underestimating his contract value and upfront cap hit. Both of those are likely to be high. Quality free agents always go above market value. Add to that that a healthy top ten QB has never in the 25 years of free agency reached the open market and you get a crazy expensive scenario. Add in that the browns and Jets have over 100 mil in cap space and you get s scenario where the bills are unlikely to land him 

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If there's someone there they feel "Oh yeah.  He's the one.  He's an 80% guy"  they may try.  But it's far from a sure thing that they'll be able to, if so.

Almost all of the top players this year have, as far as I can see, some question mark to their games.

 

Of all the guys, the one that I feel best about (assuming in interviews, he comes across as loving the game and really having the "want to" factor) is Rosen, and a nice smart chap here just scared us about his "bust" potential based upon rush yards from scrimmage for college QB.

 

The cap space issue, IMO, is overblown.  I think the issue to ponder is that trading up has a large (but less obvious) salary cap impact.  Let's say for the sake of argument, trading up costs us 3 first round picks and 2 seconds.   That's 5 quality players expected to be contributors that we can't draft and reimburse at a low rate while we evaluate them.  Let's say 3 become high-quality starters, 1 becomes a contributer, and 1 busts.  Since you didn't draft them,  you need to pay 3 quality free agents and 1 second-tier guy to replace them. 

Look for 2 quality DLmen - not the top guys, go back about 10 on the salary lists - and the very best ILB you can grab.  Heyward, Jordan types and someone as close to Luke Kuechly as you can sign, and a quality WR. 

 

Don't you think you've spent $36M in salary cap or more with those 4 acquisitions?  Now, assuming we pick in a similar or lower place next year, the CBA would put the cap hit at about $2M each for each 1st round rookie and $1M for each 2nd round rookie.  Total cap for draftees at the position of $8M

 

The difference is $27M - exactly the cap hit of a top QB such as Stafford.  And that's not taking into account the higher salary you pay Mr Top of the 1st Round rookie.

 

Back of the envelope bottom line: full court press for Cousins vs trade up for Mr Right is probably closer to a salary cap wash than you think for a team with lots of holes that wants to compete.

 

And we've seen for years the effect of paying top salaries to DL, DB, OL - "everyone but QB" as well as the effect of what I'll call "serial QB monogamy" (pick a guy who might have potential to develop into Mr Right, focus on him for 3 years, divorce him, pick again).

 

U hit the nail on the head its gonna cost nearly the same or even more.  The difference here with signing Kirk is u know what your getting with him and if u look at the teams in the playoffs this yr we've seen teams make it far with far less at QB. Bortles, Foles and Keenum are not on the same level as Kirk . If we signed Kirk and hit on our pks we become a deadly team to deal with in the near future. Plus we still have more cap space starting in 2019 to go after other top talent players to expedite the process and u know what some of those top teir players might be more willing to come to Buffalo when we have a franchise QB in place. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

They can't realistically afford to franchise him.  

 

They have something like $52M in cap. 

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

His stats are better than flacco, luck, ryan, and carr, and fairly in line with stafford.  He has justification to get a payday similar to staffords 5 for 135.  Stafford took that extension from the team he played for - this implies he wants to stay there and they want him there. 

 

If you're trying to out-bid others for his services, expect to pony up similar numbers.  Cleveland and Jax can put together massive deals if they want to, so you can't be THAT far off and expect him to consider it.  We're talking about millions of dollars in guarantees.  

 

That was my point earlier

I don't care who cousins is as a man

He's not taking $20mil a year vs $28-3$ a year

[JohnBonhamRocks]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get why you are on team trade up, but I think you need to reduce your expectations of one.  Losing Wood only further decreased the odds we will make a costly trade up.  Beane wants to build through the draft, you only make that harder when you trade a lot of assets to get one player.  

 

Disagree, I think OBD views Groy as a competent replacement. His contract says so. 

[Batman1876]

For those of you that want Cousins how much would you pay per year 30 mill? 35 mil? 40?!? How much is he worth? If you got in a bidding war how high would you go?

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

Disagree, I think OBD views Groy as a competent replacement. His contract says so. 

 

I think Groy was viewed as more of a versatile guy to move around the line than a starter to lean on.  He was too inconsistent, and at times a revolving door at Center.  Groy is definitive downgrade at C from Wood to an OL that was already bad at pass protection.

 

If we also trade Glenn, we are likely looking at 3 new starters on the OL needed as well as needing more depth.  So the Wood situation certainly hurts because it is a player we need to replace.  We either have to find a new C or find a guy to fill the roll Groy was going to fill if they move him to C.  Either way you look at it, its an additional hole we need to fill.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

8 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

For those of you that want Cousins how much would you pay per year 30 mill? 35 mil? 40?!? How much is he worth? If you got in a bidding war how high would you go?

Great Question for me the most is 30mil per . 

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think Groy was viewed as more of a versatile guy to move around the line than a starter to lean on.  He was too inconsistent, and at times a revolving door at Center.  Groy is definitive downgrade at C from Wood to an OL that was already bad at pass protection.

 

If we also trade Glenn, we are likely looking at 3 new starters on the OL needed as well as needing more depth.  So the Wood situation certainly hurts because it is a player we need to replace.  We either have to find a new C or find a guy to fill the roll Groy was going to fill if they move him to C.  Either way you look at it, its an additional hole we need to fill.  

In 2016 when Wood went down . The averaged more yds per rush per gm with Groy in the lineup. If we were to sign Cousins we have a capable line moving forward especially if we move Dawkins to the RT.  Remember fellas Tyrod holds the ball longer then any QB in the NFL. Our line is just fine we just need some depth.

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Great Question for me the most is 30mil per . 

In 2016 when Wood went down . The averaged more yds per rush per gm with Groy in the lineup. If we were to sign Cousins we have a capable line moving forward especially if we move Dawkins to the RT.  Remember fellas Tyrod holds the ball longer then any QB in the NFL. Our line is just fine we just need some depth.

 

1. Not sure why you are bringing up 2 years ago to talk about the current state of the OL...and I spoke specifically about pass protection and you are talking about run blocking.  Everyone here wants to upgrade our pass attack, and thats the point of even this thread.  You don't do that behind an OL that isnt good at pass protection and makes no difference how good they are at Run Blocking.
2. Also, in 2016 we were a better rushing team overall in a better system with more depth at RB.  That system and OC are gone and the run game wasn't as affective in 2017.
3. 2017 this OL was terrible in pass protection, and it had nothing to do with TT holding the ball longer.  This OL was even substantially worse at Pass Protection with Peterman in there trying to stay in the pocket, got killed almost immediately all the time.  TT actually makes the pass protection look less terrible by buying times with his legs, but a guy like Cousins or some other pocket passer is going to get killed behind this OL.

We already needed to upgrade spots on the OL, now we have Wood gone and Glenn likely gone leaving us with most likely having to fill 3 new starters on the OL.  ESPECIALLY if we are drafting a rookie to develop high, they need to keep the kid upright.  If you think this OL is pretty good at protecting the QB, then we are clearly on very different pages.  And Groy was like a revolving door in pass blocking at times when filling in at Center.  In fact, when Wood got hurt and Groy came in, he was a big reason why we lost that game.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[JohnBonhamRocks]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think Groy was viewed as more of a versatile guy to move around the line than a starter to lean on.  He was too inconsistent, and at times a revolving door at Center.  Groy is definitive downgrade at C from Wood to an OL that was already bad at pass protection.

 

If we also trade Glenn, we are likely looking at 3 new starters on the OL needed as well as needing more depth.  So the Wood situation certainly hurts because it is a player we need to replace.  We either have to find a new C or find a guy to fill the roll Groy was going to fill if they move him to C.  Either way you look at it, its an additional hole we need to fill.  

 

In the context of this thread, I think that if we go the Cousins route, then I sure would not mind Price in the 1st, or another solid OL who can play multiple positions. I've been throwing out the name of Corbett from Nevada who has played I think all 5 positions, but definitely LT, RT, and C, and is a 4-year starter. I do think Groy can do well enough, but a lot depends on scheme, who is next to him at RG, and whether or not Castillo is being retained. 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view.   I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents.   So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much."   Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on. 

 

Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year.   My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room.   

 

I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag.   I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy. 

Right but I am not advocating going Redskins and spending a bunch of money and high priced FA.  I look at what they did last year to sure up the secondary with a little more to spend this year Im looking for a similar approach to Dline and Linebaker.  I expect a DT to be the equivalent to Hyde.  Maybe not a household name and not a top 5 contract for the position.  The way last season was handled with an emphasis on the front 7 instead of the back 4 and possible deap threat WR ie john Brown or Paul Richardson.  Going all in on Cousins is overpaying and paying a premium for a guy who more likely than not will not match the production that contract would carry.  Imo signing Cousins Buffalo is going almost full rebuild by relying on a significant amount of rookies and first year players.  Even by trading up they will still be in position in round 2 and 3 to go BPA and add possibly an athletic linebaker, deep threat wr, Olineman, or dlineman.  

 

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The devil is always in the details, and the details are what is guaranteed, what is guaranteed for injury, and so forth.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think Cousins goes for the highest bidder.

 

The Hapless equivalent of DC Tom's trademark:  W-L percentage is not a QB stat.  W-L percentage is not a QB stat.

 

So who is that starter in FA we can sign at QB?

 

Just pointing out that the Bills have previously gone down the route of paying premium dollars for the best DL in football.  How'd that work out for us?

 

For alot less money they could go with which ever Qb leaves the Vikings,  i think Buffalo would go hard at Bradford.  Other possibilities would Macarron, Bortles, Alex smith all to compete with the rookie.  Or the nightmare to many keeping Taylor.  Cousin is going eat up a large amount of cap space and I do not think going rookie to fill every hole is the answer.  IMO go after mid-level FA and young players with potential in FA to fill up the holes and draft impact players.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

With the possible suitors and QB desperate teams out there they won't let him walk. Cousins is the surest QB to be had this year. $34 million for 1 more year with no cap hit if he walks next year means Washngton IMO will hold onto him with the transitiion tag or work out a sign and trade deal.

 

No way they let Kirk just walk.. Thats a very useable asset whether they keep him trade him or transitions him

 

I think you might be overlooking something, dd.

 

The Redskins can franchise Cousins for $34.5 M, sure.  But unless I'm missing something, he doesn't have to sign the tag until the 2nd week of July.

And if I'm Cousins, and faced with the possibility that I sign the tag and get traded somewhere I don't want to go, I sit on my hands and whistle "Day by Day"

while the Redskins squirm.  No one is going to trade for an unsigned player.

 

And day by day, potentially interested trade partners who need a QB are going to make other plans and fill in their cap space.  Remember, even if they have a handshake deal to renegotiate, the receiving team has to have the cap space open at the time of the trade for it to go through.

 

Meanwhile, Washington has to stay under the cap as they try to sign all their free agents and make their contingency plans at QB in case Cousins uses the ultimate leverage, which is to sit on the sofa and play Madden next year.

 

I don't think the Redskins franchise Cousins unless they are seriously willing to sign a deal with him.  I think to sign him expecting to trade, is too risky for them.  It puts the leverage on Cousins side of the fence.

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

The one thing we have going for us now to help sway Cousins is that we made the Playoffs with a far inferior QB and barely lost to a team that played in the AFC championship and gave the game away to the Patriots. If Cousins is looking for a ring he can definitely see an arrow trending up in Buffalo. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

For alot less money they could go with which ever Qb leaves the Vikings,  i think Buffalo would go hard at Bradford.  Other possibilities would Macarron, Bortles, Alex smith all to compete with the rookie.  Or the nightmare to many keeping Taylor.  Cousin is going eat up a large amount of cap space and I do not think going rookie to fill every hole is the answer.  IMO go after mid-level FA and young players with potential in FA to fill up the holes and draft impact players.  

 

All of these have been discussed ad nauseum.  Bottom line: you get what you pay for.

 

Signing Bradford is a fool's game, because he's fool's gold at QB.  You're signing a guy who has essentially missed 2 of the last 4 seasons, 2 1/2 of the last 5, for the same injury.  You "go hard" at him and offer him a big contract, he goes down in preseason, now what?  You need to sign 2 quality QB if you sign Bradford because you better not count on him if you want to contend.  And what has he done when not hurt?  He's had 2 full years in his career where he's thrown for 7 Y/A and completions in the mid-60s like a high quality QB.  If you sign him, you're signing a guy 3 teams have moved on from and on the last team, he was arguably outplayed by career journeyman Case Keenum - so scheme, coaching, and the pieces around him may be key.  Do we have the same key?

 

AJ McCarron may be good.  But you've seen him for 3 games, 3 years ago.  IMHO he's too close to what the Bills have done for too long, what we did with Taylor and Fitzpatrick - pick through other team's journeymen in the hopes we can find gold.

 

But hey, we'll save money!

 

[Mat68]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All of these have been discussed ad nauseum.  Bottom line: you get what you pay for.

 

Signing Bradford is a fool's game, because he's fool's gold at QB.  You're signing a guy who has essentially missed 2 of the last 4 seasons, 2 1/2 of the last 5, for the same injury.  You "go hard" at him and offer him a big contract, he goes down in preseason, now what?  You need to sign 2 quality QB if you sign Bradford because you better not count on him if you want to contend.  And what has he done when not hurt?  He's had 2 full years in his career where he's thrown for 7 Y/A and completions in the mid-60s like a high quality QB.  If you sign him, you're signing a guy 3 teams have moved on from and on the last team, he was arguably outplayed by career journeyman Case Keenum - so scheme, coaching, and the pieces around him may be key.  Do we have the same key?

 

AJ McCarron may be good.  But you've seen him for 3 games, 3 years ago.  IMHO he's too close to what the Bills have done for too long, what we did with Taylor and Fitzpatrick - pick through other team's journeymen in the hopes we can find gold.

 

But hey, we'll save money!

 

I want to trade up for a Qb.  I want an adequate Qb who is a better passer than Taylor at Qb.  Im hoping that they are the backup or play at a level the rookie cant beat them out.   Bradford has the highest probability of being the later and if in week 3 or 4 Bradford goes down the rookie comes in and never looks back.  That is Ideal imo.  I mean be aggressive go get him on opening day of Fa offer him a little more than Taylor and starting spot on the roster.  The rook beats him out thats on him.  Im not massively over paying and I think Bradford knows his injuries hurts his market.  

Edited January 30, 2018 by Mat68

[26TrapDraw]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have to say I'd be surprised if they are willing to go to the $$s Kirk wants.  I think they'd rather move up in the draft (people remember the trade back last year but McDermott traded up twice too for Zay and Dion) than do that but I might be wrong. 

The choice Beane makes here will be fascinating. Draft picks are basically free swings at a home run or do you keep to the plan they seem to have in place to have the nucleus of the talent to be in their rookie contracts? This is why I think they will bring in Cousins or someone like him and fill out the roster with the picks and some smart free agent pick ups.

Can't wait to see it unfold.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you might be overlooking something, dd.

 

The Redskins can franchise Cousins for $34.5 M, sure.  But unless I'm missing something, he doesn't have to sign the tag until the 2nd week of July.

And if I'm Cousins, and faced with the possibility that I sign the tag and get traded somewhere I don't want to go, I sit on my hands and whistle "Day by Day"

while the Redskins squirm.  No one is going to trade for an unsigned player.

 

And day by day, potentially interested trade partners who need a QB are going to make other plans and fill in their cap space.  Remember, even if they have a handshake deal to renegotiate, the receiving team has to have the cap space open at the time of the trade for it to go through.

 

Meanwhile, Washington has to stay under the cap as they try to sign all their free agents and make their contingency plans at QB in case Cousins uses the ultimate leverage, which is to sit on the sofa and play Madden next year.

 

I don't think the Redskins franchise Cousins unless they are seriously willing to sign a deal with him.  I think to sign him expecting to trade, is too risky for them.  It puts the leverage on Cousins side of the fence.

 

 

Either way he has all the leverage.  Playing under the tag - he'll have the biggest cap hit in the NFL and a fully guaranteed 30 something million.  He's also a guaranteed UFA in 2019 as a 4th tag would be around 50 million in cap space.  

[oldmanfan]

Couple thoughts.  One is that Beane has made it abundantly clear that they are in on finding a QB that is that long term starter/franchise/pick your adjective guy.  He has also been clear they want to build through the draft.

 

So adding those up, you get two potential answers.  One is if they see a 10 year guy in FA they'll grab him and keep as many picks as they can.  The second is if they think the 10 year guy is in the draft they'll move to get him.  So it really becomes a question of priority.  If they think a guy is can't miss, my gut is I think we'll see them sell out the farm even if Beane sees as his priority picks vs. QB.  But my second gut feeling is they won't feel any of these guys in the draft is that kind of difference maker.

 

Enter Cousins.  I keep coming back to the recent SI article about him, and if you read it you can't help but think he and McD are a perfect match.  Each all about process, each immersed in the intangibles so important for a team.  And he'd come to a playoff team that could have gone farther for lack of a QB (all due respect TT).  Some talk about money and cap space etc. and how Cousins may want 25-30 million a year, he'd be overpaid etc.  All true except I'd argue that other than Brady and Rogers all veteran QBs are overpaid.  It's the price of NFL football; you pay your QB and then fill in elsewhere.

 

So considering all this, I'd put my money and confidence in Cousins vs. some unknown draft pick.  You have a guy for probably ten years that is an above average QB in the league, that may have room to improve.  Add pieces around him (I'm always a proponent of building the lines because you win up front).  Continue to build on the defense's solid  overall year last year.  Use your accumulated draft picks.  Make smart FA choices like last year.  And move forward now vs. hoping for a young QB to pan out.  Don't let the hope of great be the enemy of good to very good.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I want to trade up for a Qb.  I want an adequate Qb who is a better passer than Taylor at Qb.  Im hoping that they are the backup or play at a level the rookie cant beat them out.   Bradford has the highest probability of being the later and if in week 3 or 4 Bradford goes down the rookie comes in and never looks back.  That is Ideal imo.  I mean be aggressive go get him on opening day of Fa offer him a little more than Taylor and starting spot on the roster.  The rook beats him out thats on him.  Im not massively over paying and I think Bradford knows his injuries hurts his market.  

 

Bradfords an interesting case.  He's made a ton of money already - worked under a bunch of coordinators... I think he's just looking for a spot where he's actually the guy. 

[John from Riverside]

I am in the team trade up movement.......and I am bracing myself for how much it is actually going to cost us......

 

The good news.....HUGE amount of cap space next year....