The Cousins Plan

[SouthNYfan]

16 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

If the Bills are serious about getting Cousins, they are not going to let a contract for E.J. Gaines or any other of our impending free agents get in the way.  If they were to sign Cousins, I would be fine with letting Gaines walk and going CB early again.  Maybe Jackson at 21 or 22.

 

Agreed

My point was they'd spend the entire open cap on him, leaving the team full of more holes.

If he wants a winning team, why go somewhere you know your contract will wreck them?

 

Truly wanting to win he'd sign for $20-25 a year and give his team flex

[Mat68]

It comes down to philosophy to me.  By signing Cousins you are filling the biggest need of the franchise through FA.  You are going to sign him to a premium contract. You are going to be paying him more than the Elite Qbs are making.  By doing so every hole on the team DT, 3 LBs, CB, Oline and Wr are going to be filled by a rookie going into next year.  You may be able to get an old vetran at 1 or 2 of those positions but going into the 2018 season you are looking at starting 6 to 7 rookies.  I know building through the draft is important but to me that is too much.  This past year shows that there needs to be good balance and good competition.  By not signing Cousins you can pretty much sign a starter in FA at each group listed including QB.  The biggest contract handed out imo should be DT that is second largest hole to Qb.  With Buffalo abundance of draft picks I realisticly believe Buffalo can move up on draft day and pay a high price.  The actual number of picks im not sure of but it will be significant.  Still what ever trade will still leave the Bills with 6 or 7 picks this year.  After getting the first franchise Qb potential Qb since Kelly they will still have the ability to add 2 or 3 day 1 contributors.  By filling holes in Fa they will not be desperate to find 4 to 5 starters but 1 or 2 starters and 3 to 4 depth players.  Building a balanced and disciplined football you need a good balance of veteran leadership and young athleticism.   The best success is to fill as many holes as you can in Fa.  Look to add 2 impact players in the draft and allow time to develop the rest of the picks.   

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

Then it becmoes a more difficult deal to sign and trade or even want ot franchise..... I doubt any team pays Cousing $30 mil a season...

 

here are the top QBs before last season... I think he will fall in the range of the top 5.. Which is still spendy but going rate

 

TJoe Flacco, Baltimore, $24.55 million
Carson Palmer, Arizona, $24.125 million
Kirk Cousins, Washington, $23.943 million
Matt Ryan, Atlanta, $23.75 million
Matthew Stafford, Detroit, $22 million
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, $20.3 million
Cam Newton, Carolina, $20.166 million
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers, $20 million
Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants, $19.7 million
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis, $19.4 million
Drew Brees, New Orleans, $19 million
Russell Wilson, Seattle, $18.8 million
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh, $18.2 million

 

Since then Luck, Stafford and Carr have all re-upped.  Stafford at $27m per year is the highest, followed by Carr at $25.2m.  Cousins will very least go between those two..... personally I think he blows Stafford out of the water.  Welcome to the reality of QB contracts in the NFL.  

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Since then Luck, Stafford and Carr have all re-upped.  Stafford at $27m per year is the highest, followed by Carr at $25.2m.  Cousins will very least go between those two..... personally I think he blows Stafford out of the water.  Welcome to the reality of QB contracts in the NFL.  

 

 

yeah that sounds plausible... 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

I don't disagree, but Denver and AZ are better teams than us overall, give either one a top QB last year (and also remember Johnson missed the season injured on AZ) and they are a definite playoff team.

 

I don't think we are terrible, I just think that either of those teams is in a much better position than us, and cousins is a pipe dream for us.

 

If I'm wrong and he signs feel free to make me eat my words, because I gladly will for a real QB

 

It's a good question.  Injuries happen, we all know that, then who'll be keeping him out of the dirt?  52 sacks is a buttassload of sacks, and even if you want to attribute them to the statuesque qualities of Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton - Carson Palmer (who has a lot of teflon in him) took over 3 sacks per game and more hits.  The Cardinals had Larry Fitz then a big drop off at WR.  Larry Fitz might retire.  There are real questions

 

Denver, I have some real questions about Vance Joseph as a coach.  He's young, he took a 2016 #4 D and turned it into a 2017 #22 D.  That's not trending in the direction I want.  Bills went from #16 to #18 while dumping a bunch of high-priced talent.  Now I'll grant you that going from 11 to 22 INTs didn't help Denver's D, but that's not the whole problem, and our O took a big dive as well. I'm Cousins, I want to look very carefully at what's going on in Denver.  Sanders and Thomas are not spring chickens.  Do I like Bill Musgrave?  Raiders did well in 2016.  What is Denver's plan at OL?  52 sacks and even more hits is not what I want to endure.  Anderson is a good back, but McCoy is better.

 

I'm not saying I pencil them off, I'm just saying that I'm not sure they're slam-dunk "much better" than we are.  They were a couple years ago, sure.

 

 

[jr1]

the Cousins plan: pay a guy twice what you're paying Tyrod even though he has a lower winning percentage 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Since then Luck, Stafford and Carr have all re-upped.  Stafford at $27m per year is the highest, followed by Carr at $25.2m.  Cousins will very least go between those two..... personally I think he blows Stafford out of the water.  Welcome to the reality of QB contracts in the NFL.  

 

The devil is always in the details, and the details are what is guaranteed, what is guaranteed for injury, and so forth.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think Cousins goes for the highest bidder.

Just now, jr1 said:

the Cousins plan: pay a guy twice what you're paying Tyrod even though he has a lower winning percentage 

 

The Hapless equivalent of DC Tom's trademark:  W-L percentage is not a QB stat.  W-L percentage is not a QB stat.

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

It comes down to philosophy to me.  By signing Cousins you are filling the biggest need of the franchise through FA.  You are going to sign him to a premium contract. You are going to be paying him more than the Elite Qbs are making.  By doing so every hole on the team DT, 3 LBs, CB, Oline and Wr are going to be filled by a rookie going into next year.  You may be able to get an old vetran at 1 or 2 of those positions but going into the 2018 season you are looking at starting 6 to 7 rookies.  I know building through the draft is important but to me that is too much.  This past year shows that there needs to be good balance and good competition.  By not signing Cousins you can pretty much sign a starter in FA at each group listed including QB.  The biggest contract handed out imo should be DT that is second largest hole to Qb.  With Buffalo abundance of draft picks I realisticly believe Buffalo can move up on draft day and pay a high price.  The actual number of picks im not sure of but it will be significant.  Still what ever trade will still leave the Bills with 6 or 7 picks this year.  After getting the first franchise Qb potential Qb since Kelly they will still have the ability to add 2 or 3 day 1 contributors.  By filling holes in Fa they will not be desperate to find 4 to 5 starters but 1 or 2 starters and 3 to 4 depth players.  Building a balanced and disciplined football you need a good balance of veteran leadership and young athleticism.   The best success is to fill as many holes as you can in Fa.  Look to add 2 impact players in the draft and allow time to develop the rest of the picks.   

 

So who is that starter in FA we can sign at QB?

 

Just pointing out that the Bills have previously gone down the route of paying premium dollars for the best DL in football.  How'd that work out for us?

 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Fair enough points.

 

I've read a ton on cousins, I totally get your point.

 

I still don't see us ahead of Dever or AZ, but let's stop arguing about that.

 

I'd be happy with him.

 

I just don't want to put all our eggs into his basket as there's a very real chance we don't get him, even if it's equal between us, AZ and Denver that's a 1/3 shot

Absolutely.   My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect.   He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

17 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

I've seen no indication that Wa doesn't want him.  Even if they don't they are not going to just walk away they'll tag him and then at the last possible minute if no one steps up then maybe they let him walk but its not happening on day 1 of FA. They will play their cards till the very end IMO....

 

If they're looking to trade him, then they obviously don't want him. If they wanted him, then chances are a long-term deal would be worked out. 

 

We can put this to bed, as we just do not see eye to eye, but I really do not see them risking being saddled with him at $34 million next year. 

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The devil is always in the details, and the details are what is guaranteed, what is guaranteed for injury, and so forth.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think Cousins goes for the highest bidder.

Im on the other side.  Who ever pays him highest guaranteed contract is the team he signs with.  Sure with in a few mil he will go to the best team and fit.  If Cleveland offers 100 mil guaranteed and a total of 125 or 130 hes a Brown.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Re: the ARI & DEN vs BUF for FA destination debate . . . which team made the playoffs?

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

If they're looking to trade him, then they obviously don't want him. If they wanted him, then chances are a long-term deal would be worked out. 

 

We can put this to bed, as we just do not see eye to eye, but I really do not see them risking being saddled with him at $34 million next year. 

 

 

OK... all I was saying is Wa will do whatever they can to get something for him before they let him walk.... 

Edited January 30, 2018 by ddaryl

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

It comes down to philosophy to me.  By signing Cousins you are filling the biggest need of the franchise through FA.  You are going to sign him to a premium contract. You are going to be paying him more than the Elite Qbs are making.  By doing so every hole on the team DT, 3 LBs, CB, Oline and Wr are going to be filled by a rookie going into next year.  You may be able to get an old vetran at 1 or 2 of those positions but going into the 2018 season you are looking at starting 6 to 7 rookies.  I know building through the draft is important but to me that is too much.  This past year shows that there needs to be good balance and good competition.  By not signing Cousins you can pretty much sign a starter in FA at each group listed including QB.  The biggest contract handed out imo should be DT that is second largest hole to Qb.  With Buffalo abundance of draft picks I realisticly believe Buffalo can move up on draft day and pay a high price.  The actual number of picks im not sure of but it will be significant.  Still what ever trade will still leave the Bills with 6 or 7 picks this year.  After getting the first franchise Qb potential Qb since Kelly they will still have the ability to add 2 or 3 day 1 contributors.  By filling holes in Fa they will not be desperate to find 4 to 5 starters but 1 or 2 starters and 3 to 4 depth players.  Building a balanced and disciplined football you need a good balance of veteran leadership and young athleticism.   The best success is to fill as many holes as you can in Fa.  Look to add 2 impact players in the draft and allow time to develop the rest of the picks.   

Yours is a point of view, but I don't think it's Beane's point of view.   I think he's all about rookies and low-priced free agents.   So I don't think he thinks that paying the premium for Cousins is "too much."   Of course, I don't know, but that's what I think is going on. 

 

Plus, if they think he's the guy, he's the guy for the next 6-8 years, and the cap hell that might result from signing him lasts only one year.   My understanding is that in 2019 there's plenty of cap room.   

 

I don't think Beane will be afraid of the price tag.   I think the whole question is whether the Bills think he's the guy. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

25 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

No they aren't going down unless reveneues go down conisderably...   But I still think Cousins would do less than $30 mil per season on a longterm deal with guarentees.

 

If he becomes available - or even in his negotiations with Wash - they start at the 5 for 135 that stafford got.  If he's not tagged, id say 30 mil per season average isn't out of the realm. 

 

If he is tagged, he likely plays under the tag.  It'd be impossible to tag him a 4th time - and then he hits the unrestricted free agency he wants so he can choose his team and get a massive payday.  

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Im on the other side.  Who ever pays him highest guaranteed contract is the team he signs with.  Sure with in a few mil he will go to the best team and fit.  If Cleveland offers 100 mil guaranteed and a total of 125 or 130 hes a Brown.

I don't think you get who Cousins is.   He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him.   Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him.   

 

He will think about this like Brady does.   He wants to win, and that trumps the money.  

[simool]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

So you want Cousins and Keenum.  How about neither. 

 

I agree.  Whenever anyone brings up Cousins, I go back to this, he knows way more about it than anyone posting on a message board.  Keenum is a byproduct of Shurmur.  Mark my words with Shurmur gone, he will regress.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm on board.   

 

I think many people are missing what a good fit Cousins is for McDermott's philosophy.   I think the OP hits the nail on the head - if the Bills are drafting a QB, they're looking for a guy like Cousins.

 

Why would Cousins sign with Buffalo?  Because HE sees what a good fit he is for the McD's philosophy.   They mesh perfectly. 

 

You don't think the Bills would spend the money?   Why not?   Because they haven't in the past?   Well, too things about that:  1.  By the past, you mean under Mr. Wilson.  The Pegulas have had NO PROBLEM spending money, on the stadium, on head coaches, on whatever they think is necessary.   And 2. they spent the money to get Mario Williams.   Didn't work out so well, but the organization, under Mr. Wilson spent the money when they thought it was the right thing to do.   If McDermott is sold on the guy, money is not going to be a problem.  

I was gonna post the same thing for the posters that believe Kirk won't entertain coming to Buffalo.  Kirk is a Process type guy and he might fall in love with coach Mcd . I believe that will be what lands him in Buffalo if he chooses to sign with us. 

[SouthNYfan]

23 minutes ago, jr1 said:

the Cousins plan: pay a guy twice what you're paying Tyrod even though he has a lower winning percentage 

 

I'm sorry but you are completely lost if you think Tyrod is even remotely the QB that Kirk is.

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's a good question.  Injuries happen, we all know that, then who'll be keeping him out of the dirt?  52 sacks is a buttassload of sacks, and even if you want to attribute them to the statuesque qualities of Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton - Carson Palmer (who has a lot of teflon in him) took over 3 sacks per game and more hits.  The Cardinals had Larry Fitz then a big drop off at WR.  Larry Fitz might retire.  There are real questions

 

Denver, I have some real questions about Vance Joseph as a coach.  He's young, he took a 2016 #4 D and turned it into a 2017 #22 D.  That's not trending in the direction I want.  Bills went from #16 to #18 while dumping a bunch of high-priced talent.  Now I'll grant you that going from 11 to 22 INTs didn't help Denver's D, but that's not the whole problem, and our O took a big dive as well. I'm Cousins, I want to look very carefully at what's going on in Denver.  Sanders and Thomas are not spring chickens.  Do I like Bill Musgrave?  Raiders did well in 2016.  What is Denver's plan at OL?  52 sacks and even more hits is not what I want to endure.  Anderson is a good back, but McCoy is better.

 

I'm not saying I pencil them off, I'm just saying that I'm not sure they're slam-dunk "much better" than we are.  They were a couple years ago, sure.

 

 

 

Fair on all points.

I think Denver is much better, but maybe it's just recent perception, and I'm with you on Joseph being "meh"

 

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Absolutely.   My point is that people who think that the Bills can't compete for him are incorrect.   He may go to any of several teams for any of several reasons, but the Bills have as good a shot as any.  

 

I see your point.

I still don't agree, but it's not as far off as i might think it is.

3 minutes ago, simool said:

 

I agree.  Whenever anyone brings up Cousins, I go back to this, he knows way more about it than anyone posting on a message board.  Keenum is a byproduct of Shurmur.  Mark my words with Shurmur gone, he will regress.

 

His former GM just sounds full of salt because he got fired.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think you get who Cousins is.   He will go to the place he thinks is the best fit for him.   Money won't be the deciding factor, as long as it's enough money to satisfy him.   

 

He will think about this like Brady does.   He wants to win, and that trumps the money.  

 

His stats are better than flacco, luck, ryan, and carr, and fairly in line with stafford.  He has justification to get a payday similar to staffords 5 for 135.  Stafford took that extension from the team he played for - this implies he wants to stay there and they want him there. 

 

If you're trying to out-bid others for his services, expect to pony up similar numbers.  Cleveland and Jax can put together massive deals if they want to, so you can't be THAT far off and expect him to consider it.  We're talking about millions of dollars in guarantees.  

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am firmly in Team Trade Up and I actually believe the Bills will.  

 

EDIT: I don't hate the Cousins plan and I do see the advantages but I just feel like he is going to get an astronomical sum for a QB of his standard and he pretty much fixes you into building through the draft around him. The Bills may have cap space going into 2019 but they will hopefully also be starting to think at that stage about signing a young shutdown corner long term (Tre) and a young franchise left tackle long term (Dion).  So while you have some cap space for short term FA deals in 2019 and 2020 you don't have room to tie yourself into big FAs on 4 or 5 year deals.  I think if you find your Quarterback in the draft you have a little more flexibility as to how you build the team around him.  

 

I get why you are on team trade up, but I think you need to reduce your expectations of one.  Losing Wood only further decreased the odds we will make a costly trade up.  Beane wants to build through the draft, you only make that harder when you trade a lot of assets to get one player.  

 

This team has significant needs/holes at DT, LB, all over the OL, WR, DB (if we lose Gaines), and the pass rush to go with the unsettled QB situation.  I have a very hard time seeing Beane trading a ton of assets this year to get up high enough to take one of the top 4 QB's...and to do so would mean they will have to really love that QB.  Furthering this has been Beane saying they wont spend big in FA, so doesn't sound like FA is going to land a lot of solutions to those holes.

 

Because of that, I do think the idea of signing Cousins is more plausible (assuming he really becomes available) where they address it and then get to spend all those picks on so many other needs.  But its also really early now in the process, so they could fall in love with one enough to pay the price, or be patient and see if anyone starts slipping and then make a small move up to grab a guy who fell closer to them.  

 

And had Kirk been the QB in 2017, the Bills would have at least been 12-4 because they win the 9 games still and then we easily win the Carolina, Cincy, and Charger game with Cousins instead of TT or Peterman.  Thats 12 wins, and we would be going into the off season as a 12 win team with a butt load of draft picks.  

 

So count me in on the sign Cousins train.  But I won't be mad if they make a big trade instead to move up and get a QB, I just don't expect it to happen.