The Cousins Plan

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, aristocrat said:

 

denver is high enough to get a rookie as are the jets and maybe even the skins. they could use the cap space to sign other guys. we're just having fun with it no need to trash the city. 

 

I'm not trashing the city, don't take it personally.

Name the last big free agent we signed, especially one we didn't have to overpay for?

Buffalo just isn't a preferred destination for free agents, no matter how you slice it.

(Hyde and poyer don't count. They were savvy signings that were risky and paid off)

 

Cousins will already get like $28-32 mil open market, maybe more, so we'd have to at least match that plus more.

 

Denver most likely will push for cousins and draft another stud to fill a hole.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, DefenseWins said:

I'm going to ask this question again... What makes any of you believe that Cousins would want to sign with Buffalo vs Denver, Ariz, Wash, NYJ etc... He can have his choice of any of these cities assuming he doesn't want Clev which has the most $$$ to pay him whatever he wants...

 

Oh, we might not.  It would certainly depend upon the "sales pitch" McBeane can put together, and their pitch just gotten weaker with the Woods-size hole at OL.  But you never hit the shot you don't take.  And my point is that I don't think the size of the cap hit going after Cousins is that different than the size of the hit from losing the number of top draft picks and needing more quality FA to compete, if we trade up.  If we like Cousins after the hard-working scouts and coaches fine-tooth-comb through the film, I hope we make a push.

 

I don't think NYJ can put up much of a pitch and I think Cousins is fed up with Washington, unless they make him a great pitch how stuff will be different going forward.  This is Cousins chance to make a mark, have a legacy.  Why would he blow it on NYJ or Wash any more than Bills much less Cleveland?  Go to a team that's a QB-size piece away.

 

If I'm Cousins, I listen attentively to the Vikings (they're a wild card here - 3 FA QB) and Jaguars (if they decide they need an upgrade from Bortles) because they both have the "horses" on D to be contenders for a long time, and I listen politely to Arizona and Denver.  I look at the quality of the OL and WR/TE they offer me more than I look at the size of my paycheck. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

OK then they go 7-9 .. Washngton is not giving up on a very functional underrated QB for nothing... I just don't see that. 15 + teams in this league would look at Cousins as an upgrade IMO. Cousins is a top 10 QB in this league or at least has been a consistent top 10 the last 3 seasons.

 

Where is Washington going ot find a consistent top 10 QB to replace him

 

 

 

It depends what you think he is.  He'd need to be brady to take that roster anywhere.  If you can tag and trade him - you can package picks to move up and get a newer - cheaper QB who you can build around.  

I'm not saying let him walk for nothing.  I'm saying I wouldn't build around him with that roster.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If there's someone there they feel "Oh yeah.  He's the one.  He's an 80% guy"  they may try.  But it's far from a sure thing that they'll be able to, if so.

Almost all of the top players this year have, as far as I can see, some question mark to their games.

 

Of all the guys, the one that I feel best about (assuming in interviews, he comes across as loving the game and really having the "want to" factor) is Rosen, and a nice smart chap here just scared us about his "bust" potential based upon rush yards from scrimmage for college QB.

 

The cap space issue, IMO, is overblown.  I think the issue to ponder is that trading up has a large (but less obvious) salary cap impact.  Let's say for the sake of argument, trading up costs us 3 first round picks and 2 seconds.   That's 5 quality players expected to be contributors that we can't draft and reimburse at a low rate while we evaluate them.  Let's say 3 become high-quality starters, 1 becomes a contributer, and 1 busts.  Since you didn't draft them,  you need to pay 3 quality free agents and 1 second-tier guy to replace them. 

Look for 2 quality DLmen - not the top guys, go back about 10 on the salary lists - and the very best ILB you can grab.  Heyward, Jordan types and someone as close to Luke Kuechly as you can sign, and a quality WR. 

 

Don't you think you've spent $36M in salary cap or more with those 4 acquisitions?  Now, assuming we pick in a similar or lower place next year, the CBA would put the cap hit at about $2M each for each 1st round rookie and $1M for each 2nd round rookie.  Total cap for draftees at the position of $8M

 

The difference is $27M - exactly the cap hit of a top QB such as Stafford.  And that's not taking into account the higher salary you pay Mr Top of the 1st Round rookie.

 

Back of the envelope bottom line: full court press for Cousins vs trade up for Mr Right is probably closer to a salary cap wash than you think for a team with lots of holes that wants to compete.

 

And we've seen for years the effect of paying top salaries to DL, DB, OL - "everyone but QB" as well as the effect of what I'll call "serial QB monogamy" (pick a guy who might have potential to develop into Mr Right, focus on him for 3 years, divorce him, pick again).

 

 

This is, in my humble opinion, not a draft you are going to re-stock your team for a run in.  It just isn't deep enough or talented enough at too many positions.  It reminds me a bit of the 2015 draft. It is obviously deeper than that class at QB but there are QBs there you can build around, half a dozen top end elite prospects around that and then a whole load of meh. There will be players who go in the 1st round of this draft that would not have been taken before the real tail end of the 2nd round last year in my opinion.  That is a big part of the reason why I am in the trade up camp.  

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I'm not trashing the city, don't take it personally.

Name the last big free agent we signed, especially one we didn't have to overpay for?

Buffalo just isn't a preferred destination for free agents, no matter how you slice it.

(Hyde and poyer don't count. They were savvy signings that were risky and paid off)

 

Cousins will already get like $28-32 mil open market, maybe more, so we'd have to at least match that plus more.

 

Denver most likely will push for cousins and draft another stud to fill a hole.

 

 

 

Does Denver have an OL?  Asking for a friend

(I have the same question about AZ.  52 sacks is a crapload)

 

You are right that Buffalo has had to overpay for FA, but making the playoffs last year does help in that regard. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Unless there's a surprise QB retirement or cut, Bills would absolutely be in the top 3 places Cousins could land.  Bills are better situation than Cleveland and Jets.  Denver would be #1, but who knows what Elway will do.  Arizona obviously has better weather, but can make argument Cousins has better chance of winning in Buffalo.  

[ddaryl]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

It depends what you think he is.  He'd need to be brady to take that roster anywhere.  If you can tag and trade him - you can package picks to move up and get a newer - cheaper QB who you can build around.  

I'm not saying let him walk for nothing.  I'm saying I wouldn't build around him with that roster.

 

 

Then it comes full circle to what i was saying.. Cousins is not leaving Washington for nothing.. Cousins will not be a FA IMO. A sign and trade deal or franchised.. or franchised till a sign and trade deal can be worked out

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is, in my humble opinion, not a draft you are going to re-stock your team for a run in.  It just isn't deep enough or talented enough at too many positions.  It reminds me a bit of the 2015 draft. It is obviously deeper than that class at QB but there are QBs there you can build around, half a dozen top end elite prospects around that and then a whole load of meh. There will be players who go in the 1st round of this draft that would not have been taken before the real tail end of the 2nd round last year in my opinion.  That is a big part of the reason why I am in the trade up camp. 

 

Make no mistake, a serious trade-up is going to cost us the top of 2, maybe 3 drafts, even with our 2 picks this year.

 

The point stands that trading-up in the draft is not a 'cap saving' option.  It will leave you holes you will have to overpay to fill in FA.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Then it comes full circle to what i was saying.. Cousins is not leaving Washington for nothing.. Cousins will not be a FA IMO. A sign and trade deal or franchised.. or franchised till a sign and trade deal can be worked out

 

They can't realistically afford to franchise him.  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

4 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Then it comes full circle to what i was saying.. Cousins is not leaving Washington for nothing.. Cousins will not be a FA IMO. A sign and trade deal or franchised.. or franchised till a sign and trade deal can be worked out

 

I'm not sure he would get $34 million on the open market, so I'm not sure a team would make the trade for him if the Redskins (unwisely) chose to tag him again. 

[Lfod]

We will sign him to a huge contract and then he will suffer a career ending injury in game 2 or 3 of the season. Then we all get to argue over if the move was stupid or not.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Lfod

[ddaryl]

Just now, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

I'm not sure he would get $34 million on the open market, so I'm not sure a team would make the trade for him if the Redskins (unwisely) chose to tag him again. 

 

 

sure because if you tag and trade him the team can negotiate a cap friendly deal and abosrb the $34 mill ++ into a signing bonus..

 

I think 1 1st rd pick and some change would do it if Wa smply wants to move on and get something in return.. Not ot spendy and Cousins is better than all the secondary QB options IMO

[Shaw66]

I'm on board.   

 

I think many people are missing what a good fit Cousins is for McDermott's philosophy.   I think the OP hits the nail on the head - if the Bills are drafting a QB, they're looking for a guy like Cousins.

 

Why would Cousins sign with Buffalo?  Because HE sees what a good fit he is for the McD's philosophy.   They mesh perfectly. 

 

You don't think the Bills would spend the money?   Why not?   Because they haven't in the past?   Well, too things about that:  1.  By the past, you mean under Mr. Wilson.  The Pegulas have had NO PROBLEM spending money, on the stadium, on head coaches, on whatever they think is necessary.   And 2. they spent the money to get Mario Williams.   Didn't work out so well, but the organization, under Mr. Wilson spent the money when they thought it was the right thing to do.   If McDermott is sold on the guy, money is not going to be a problem.  

[SouthNYfan]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't think anyone thinks that the city of Buffalo is a preferred destination over areas like Arizona or Denver.

 

It is silly, however, to rule out a big FA signing in Buffalo because "it's Buffalo".  Mario Williams signed the richest defensive player contract in history to come here when he had many other suitors, so it's not like it's unheard of for good players to sign here.

 

The biggest thing that FAs look for is comfort level, both on and off the field.  Why would a guy sign here?  Well, he'd have to like the coach and front office, he'd have to think the team was heading in the right direction, he might have tight relationships with other players already here, and he might like that Buffalo has a relatively low cost of living.  Combine those factors with a willingness to pay market value, and you can certainly be in the conversation.

 

Now, do I think Cousins will sign here?  Probably not.  I don't think they'll give him the $27-28M AAV he's looking for, and I think he's more likely to go to a place like Denver or Arizona that have a more recent history of winning.

 

Almost every single sports article after the signing focused on it being a massive overpay just to get him to Buffalo.

 

They literally jumped from the previous highest guaranteed ($36 or so for haynesworth) to $50mil guaranteed.

 

That's a HUGE jump.

 

"It’s hard to imagine that Williams would have chosen the Bills over most other teams in the NFL with money being equal, and it’s also simultaneously hard to imagine anyone else in the league shelling out $50 million in guaranteed money for Williams. "

 

I never said it's unheard of to sign GOOD players, I said that other than Williams, who we greatly had to overpay for, we haven't landed any top tier FAs (Hyde and poyer were well scouted question marks, not top tier guys)

 

Cousins is well regarded as the #1 available option this year, a borderline franchise QB (the most important position) in his prime.

 

Your statement about guys saying the biggest thing they look for is comfort in and off the field isn't true of most.

 

$$ talks.

More $$ talks louder.

 

We'd probably have to offer him $35-38mil just to get him to visit.

 

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Does Denver have an OL?  Asking for a friend

(I have the same question about AZ.  52 sacks is a crapload)

 

You are right that Buffalo has had to overpay for FA, but making the playoffs last year does help in that regard. 

 

I don't disagree, but Denver and AZ are better teams than us overall, give either one a top QB last year (and also remember Johnson missed the season injured on AZ) and they are a definite playoff team.

 

I don't think we are terrible, I just think that either of those teams is in a much better position than us, and cousins is a pipe dream for us.

 

If I'm wrong and he signs feel free to make me eat my words, because I gladly will for a real QB

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Make no mistake, a serious trade-up is going to cost us the top of 2, maybe 3 drafts, even with our 2 picks this year.

 

The point stands that trading-up in the draft is not a 'cap saving' option.  It will leave you holes you will have to overpay to fill in FA.

 

If you want to get to the top 2 it will likely cost you a 2019 1st as well.  After that I honestly don't think it will and part of why it won't is the Bills will have no competition who can match us. Future 1sts are discounted in the trade formula.  Another team offering a 2017 1st, a 2018 1st and a 2019 1st in value terms is not offering more than the Bills saying "here have two fully valued 1st rounders this year." So I don't see who outbids us to move up.  A team like the Colts who have a lot of needs and want to rebuild fast are much more likely to bite on two first rounders in 2017 than three spread over the next three years.  

 

The trade up option would give you more flexibility in how you build going forward, is more achievable in resource terms than signing Cousins and is a better strategy given THIS draft and THIS pool of FA players in my opinion.  I don't hate the Cousins idea but it is clearly not my number 1 option.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

sure because if you tag and trade him the team can negotiate a cap friendly deal and abosrb the $34 mill ++ into a signing bonus..

 

I think 1 1st rd pick and some change would do it if Wa smply wants to move on and get something in return.. Not ot spendy and Cousins is better than all the secondary QB options IMO

 

His guaranteed salary will be very high no matter what, and the average will be around 30 million.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

5 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

sure because if you tag and trade him the team can negotiate a cap friendly deal and abosrb the $34 mill ++ into a signing bonus..

 

I think 1 1st rd pick and some change would do it if Wa smply wants to move on and get something in return.. Not ot spendy and Cousins is better than all the secondary QB options IMO

 

I think the potentially buying teams would call the Redskins' bluff. They aren't going to tag him unless they have a deal in place because they clearly do not want to be stuck with him. If they do tag him, then teams will just let them be stuck with him at $34 million next year and draft or sign a QB for way less cost instead. 

[SouthNYfan]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm on board.   

 

I think many people are missing what a good fit Cousins is for McDermott's philosophy.   I think the OP hits the nail on the head - if the Bills are drafting a QB, they're looking for a guy like Cousins.

 

Why would Cousins sign with Buffalo?  Because HE sees what a good fit he is for the McD's philosophy.   They mesh perfectly. 

 

You don't think the Bills would spend the money?   Why not?   Because they haven't in the past?   Well, too things about that:  1.  By the past, you mean under Mr. Wilson.  The Pegulas have had NO PROBLEM spending money, on the stadium, on head coaches, on whatever they think is necessary.   And 2. they spent the money to get Mario Williams.   Didn't work out so well, but the organization, under Mr. Wilson spent the money when they thought it was the right thing to do.   If McDermott is sold on the guy, money is not going to be a problem.  

 

Except we only have $31mil in cap space, and need to sign Gaines and a couple others 

 

Even if we cut tyrod, that puts us at what? $40mil?

 

We'd need a massive backloaded poison pill contract with huge guaranteed money to get him.

[Shaw66]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Almost every single sports article after the signing focused on it being a massive overpay just to get him to Buffalo.

 

They literally jumped from the previous highest guaranteed ($36 or so for haynesworth) to $50mil guaranteed.

 

That's a HUGE jump.

 

"It’s hard to imagine that Williams would have chosen the Bills over most other teams in the NFL with money being equal, and it’s also simultaneously hard to imagine anyone else in the league shelling out $50 million in guaranteed money for Williams. "

 

I never said it's unheard of to sign GOOD players, I said that other than Williams, who we greatly had to overpay for, we haven't landed any top tier FAs (Hyde and poyer were well scouted question marks, not top tier guys)

 

Cousins is well regarded as the #1 available option this year, a borderline franchise QB (the most important position) in his prime.

 

Your statement about guys saying the biggest thing they look for is comfort in and off the field isn't true of most.

 

$$ talks.

More $$ talks louder.

 

We'd probably have to offer him $35-38mil just to get him to visit.

 

 

I don't disagree, but Denver and AZ are better teams than us overall, give either one a top QB last year (and also remember Johnson missed the season injured on AZ) and they are a definite playoff team.

 

I don't think we are terrible, I just think that either of those teams is in a much better position than us, and cousins is a pipe dream for us.

 

If I'm wrong and he signs feel free to make me eat my words, because I gladly will for a real QB

The difference between Kirk Cousins and Mario Williams is night and day.   Williiams was all about the money.   Cousins is all about the process, winning and being the best he can be.   

 

I really think Cousins may prefer Buffalo to EVERY other team because McDermott is his football soulmate.   It's all about process, study, improvement.   Heard that before?    In his mind, the only better place than Buffalo would be playing for Belichick.   

 

Cousins was born and raised and went to college in the midwest.   Buffalo would be like coming home, not going to Siberia.  

 

Cousins is going to go to the place that feels right to him, so long as the money is in the ball park.   Buffalo can compete under those rules. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

I think the potentially buying teams would call the Redskins' bluff. They aren't going to tag him unless they have a deal in place because they clearly do not want to be stuck with him. If they do tag him, then teams will just let them be stuck with him at $34 million next year and draft or sign a QB for way less cost instead. 

 

Plus if they tag him - the trade offers won't come in until most of the best free agents have already signed.  So their cap savings basically only help them in 2019 anyway, as they'll hang a 33 million cap hit.

 

2018 is a crummy year for them because they werent able to work out an extension with him.