What's Plan C for QB?

[Virgil]

Smith wasn’t much in SanFran. Kaep showed as a huge improvement at the time. 

 

I do think Smith gets cut due to cap reasons, not traded. However it’s hard for me to see the Chiefs handing over the reigns to a 2nd year rookie after winning the division. 

 

On the other hand, we are talking about jettisoning the qb who ended the drought 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Fair enough.

 

My point earlier was that Smith was forced out by 2 other younger QBs, and only has a year left on his contract if we trade for him.

 

If we draft a QB he's most likely not going to sign an extension.

 

If we don't draft a QB then we are betting on 33 year old Alex Smith to be the guy for the next 3-5 years, hoping he will sign.

 

I wouldn't bet on Smith long term, and he's not signing an extension if we draft a QB.

He's going to be a hot commodity this offseason and it will likely take a trade to get him.  I can see the Jaguars, Broncos, and Cardinals pushing hard for him and they're pry likely more attractive for him.  Even if we're interested (I personally would be fine with signing him to a 2 year "bridge gap" deal), I don't think we get him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

First of all, I don't see us keeping Tyrod Taylor.  No way.  Not a chance.  That ship has sailed.  It's crystal clear our coaching staff doesn't believe in him.  Last offseason, they exhausted all other options before reluctantly taking him back with a pay cut.  Then they benched him in the middle of a playoff race for a 5th Rounder who wasn't even close to ready.  Now we are clearly looking at draft prospects.  Taylor wants to start.  The guy took less on the market to sign with us originally, just so he could have a chance to start.  He has renegotiated his contract for us twice, instead of hitting free agency.  I think he'll just let the Bills cut him and hit the open market.

 

You make a lot of reasonable points, so I kind of hate to do this but....how could the bolded part possibly be true?  The Bills resigned Taylor to a lower contract before the league season started, before they could trade.  Before the draft.  And before the "tampering period" where teams can talk to guys who are about to become FA.

 

I just don't buy this "Bills kept Taylor last year because they had no other options" storyline that's emerging.

16 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He's going to be a hot commodity this offseason and it will likely take a trade to get him.  I can see the Jaguars, Broncos, and Cardinals pushing hard for him and they're pry likely more attractive for him.  Even if we're interested (I personally would be fine with signing him to a 2 year "bridge gap" deal), I don't think we get him.

 

I could be wrong, I often am, but I doubt this. 

 

I do think it takes a trade to bring him to B'lo.  We aren't SF for charisma points.

[SouthNYfan]

15 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He's going to be a hot commodity this offseason and it will likely take a trade to get him.  I can see the Jaguars, Broncos, and Cardinals pushing hard for him and they're pry likely more attractive for him.  Even if we're interested (I personally would be fine with signing him to a 2 year "bridge gap" deal), I don't think we get him.

 

Again, he only has 1 year on his deal.

My point is even if we get him, why would he sign a "2 year bridge gap" deal after his history?

He wants a better contract than that.

 

I think the broncos get cousins, but would be in the running for Smith if they don't.

Agreed the cards are a legit contender for Smith though.

 

Jags are interesting.

Bortles is very streaky, but only 25 years old

They have a 5th year option on him.

Khan said he's their man, so who knows.

 

[Cripple Creek]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Basically, what would plan C need to include to make you optimistic about our offense next year if we can't land the top 3 guys at QB or FA QB's?

You want hope when plans A & B fail? Damn, that's a lot to ask. Doomed, I say.

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Again, he only has 1 year on his deal.

My point is even if we get him, why would he sign a "2 year bridge gap" deal after his history?

He wants a better contract than that.

 

I think the broncos get cousins, but would be in the running for Smith if they don't.

Agreed the cards are a legit contender for Smith though.

 

Jags are interesting.

Bortles is very streaky, but only 25 years old

They have a 5th year option on him.

Khan said he's their man, so who knows.

 

He pry wouldn't.  That's the only way I'd sign him though.

[SouthNYfan]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He pry wouldn't.  That's the only way I'd sign him though.

 

 

Agree 100%

If we get him I want an agreement of 2-3 years before the trade

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

You want hope when plans A & B fail? Damn, that's a lot to ask. Doomed, I say.

If I'm reading the OP correctly, Plan B is the only one I'm interested in.  25 years is a long enough wait for a true franchise qb.  We have the draft capital.  If it costs a lot, it costs a lot.  I don't believe it can't be done and one has to realistically entertain plausible alternatives.  But folks want to fill a roster and kick the qb can down the road yet again.  I call that Plan D(oomed).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

34 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Smith wasn’t much in SanFran. Kaep showed as a huge improvement at the time.

 

For values of "huge improvement" averaging <140 ypg and 10 passing TD in 7 games vs 174 ypg and 13 passing TD in 9 games.

 

Harbaugh made the switch because Kaep had a couple of good games while Smith was out injured, and Harbaugh thought he'd progress; Kaep was also making more plays with his feet (415 yds rushing and 5 rush TD vs 132 yds rushing and 0 rush TD for Smith).

 

In hindsight, Harbaugh probably regrets it.

 

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

Smith has one year left on his deal

Who says he will re-sign if he knows we have a QB in waiting?

He was forced out by kaep

He was forced out by mahomes

I don't think he wants that again

 

Smith is 33 years old and living with the "rap" that he's "not quite good enough".  The Bills had a D that was arguably good enough to make the playoffs with a level of QB play he knows he can exceed at this point.  He's not Brady - he's been "rid hard and put away wet" in his QB life.

 

If he thinks there's a team that's going to annoint him its long term starter at this point and not draft a guy to develop, he's dreaming.

I would think he would like to go to a team that will be able to compete, and maybe give him a decent shot to move deeper into the playoffs.  OTOH, if we don't upgrade WR and OL I'm Smith, I don't sign.

 

At 33, job security is important to a guy.  It is better to play on a long term deal that you might not finish, than to play year-to-year and get nothing if you are hurt.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For values of "huge improvement" averaging <140 ypg and 10 passing TD in 7 games vs 174 ypg and 13 passing TD in 9 games.

 

Harbaugh made the switch because Kaep had a couple of good games while Smith was out injured, and Harbaugh thought he'd progress; Kaep was also making more plays with his feet (415 yds rushing and 5 rush TD vs 132 yds rushing and 0 rush TD for Smith).

 

In hindsight, Harbaugh probably regrets it.

 

 

Is “spark” a better word?  Smith wasn’t doing anything to slam dunk keep the job and Kaep had a few deep balls end electrifying runs. 

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Probably Tyrod is the correct answer as worst case scenario as this would be.

 

I would be very upset if they failed to upgrade the QB position with such a rich QB FA period and draft.  I fully expect them to sign a veteran QB like Smith and draft a young talent like Rudolph 

Alex Smith isn’t a free agent.  If the Bills want him, they would have to trade for him.  It isn’t a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs won’t keep Smith.  We don’t know if Mahomes is ready or good enough to take Smith’s position.  Andy Reid would be fired if they dump Smith and Mahomes flops.

 

Note that I am not saying that Mahomes WOULD flop, just that we don’t know and I’d think KC would keep Smith and make Mahomes beat him out.

[SouthNYfan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For values of "huge improvement" averaging <140 ypg and 10 passing TD in 7 games vs 174 ypg and 13 passing TD in 9 games.

 

Harbaugh made the switch because Kaep had a couple of good games while Smith was out injured, and Harbaugh thought he'd progress; Kaep was also making more plays with his feet (415 yds rushing and 5 rush TD vs 132 yds rushing and 0 rush TD for Smith).

 

In hindsight, Harbaugh probably regrets it.

 

 

Smith is 33 years old and living with the "rap" that he's "not quite good enough".  The Bills had a D that was arguably good enough to make the playoffs with a level of QB play he knows he can exceed at this point.  He's not Brady - he's been "rid hard and put away wet" in his QB life.

 

If he thinks there's a team that's going to annoint him its long term starter at this point and not draft a guy to develop, he's dreaming.

I would think he would like to go to a team that will be able to compete, and maybe give him a decent shot to move deeper into the playoffs.  OTOH, if we don't upgrade WR and OL I'm Smith, I don't sign.

 

At 33, job security is important to a guy.  It is better to play on a long term deal that you might not finish, than to play year-to-year and get nothing if you are hurt.

 

 

Agreed with you on Smith

I think you were agreeing with me and just adding to what I said though

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Smith has one year left on his deal

Who says he will re-sign if he knows we have a QB in waiting?

He was forced out by kaep

He was forced out by mahomes

I don't think he wants that again

Unless we sign him long term he's not gonna be more than a year

That's why I wouldn't risk not taking a QB if we have a chance at a guy we like

Nate has potential, but I'm not willing to bet the next decade on "Nathan Peterman and maybe Alex Smith will re-sign"

  Setting aside the issue of whether Smith is traded or released I feel that Smith being signed for only one more year is of minimal concern.  If he ages during the 2018 season then we would only want that commitment versus another long contract to eat.  Most QB's are not a freak of nature and cannot plan on playing until they are 40.  If true that the 2019 cap numbers suggest we have over 90 million dollars of room then we are in the driver's seat in that if we really want Smith and cannot work something out before 2019 we can tag him.  Having said that I think before it gets that far either the Bills will come up with something acceptable for Smith or target another vet QB via free agency or trade.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

Is “spark” a better word?  Smith wasn’t doing anything to slam dunk keep the job and Kaep had a few deep balls end electrifying runs. 

 

Yes.  Kaep made some electrifying runs.  He also played a couple good games while Smith was out hurt. 

[SouthNYfan]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Alex Smith isn’t a free agent.  If the Bills want him, they would have to trade for him.  It isn’t a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs won’t keep Smith.  We don’t know if Mahomes is ready or good enough to take Smith’s position.  Andy Reid would be fired if they dump Smith and Mahomes flops.

 

Note that I am not saying that Mahomes WOULD flop, just that we don’t know and I’d think KC would keep Smith and make Mahomes beat him out.

 

Smith is gone from the chiefs

They are over the cap or real close and he's making $20mil this year.

 

The issue is they will probably try to trade him (and succeed) before they cut him

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I know these guys don't excite anyone...that's why it is plan C. I think this would all be meant to bring in competition for Peterman, knowing they want him to win the job. 

 

That plan "C" is plan "T" for tank.

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Setting aside the issue of whether Smith is traded or released I feel that Smith being signed for only one more year is of minimal concern.  If he ages during the 2018 season then we would only want that commitment versus another long contract to eat.  Most QB's are not a freak of nature and cannot plan on playing until they are 40.  If true that the 2019 cap numbers suggest we have over 90 million dollars of room then we are in the driver's seat in that if we really want Smith and cannot work something out before 2019 we can tag him.  Having said that I think before it gets that far either the Bills will come up with something acceptable for Smith or target another vet QB via free agency or trade.

 

I don't disagree

 

My point on him having 1 year left was that it's short sighted to trade for him and not draft somebody since he will most likely be gone after a year, so we are basically trading for a 1 year rental

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

Agreed with you on Smith

I think you were agreeing with me and just adding to what I said though

 

Uncertain.  It sounded as though you were arguing that Smith wouldn't want to sign a long term contract if we draft a guy.

I think if he's realistic, he has to realize that may not be a good option

 

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Uncertain.  It sounded as though you were arguing that Smith wouldn't want to sign a long term contract if we draft a guy.

I think if he's realistic, he has to realize that may not be a good option

 

 

I was arguing that he might play out the year and walk if we draft a guy, so he has some control of his future, rather than sign, then get traded in a year or two if we have a young guy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Alex Smith isn’t a free agent.  If the Bills want him, they would have to trade for him.  It isn’t a foregone conclusion that the Chiefs won’t keep Smith.  We don’t know if Mahomes is ready or good enough to take Smith’s position.  Andy Reid would be fired if they dump Smith and Mahomes flops.

 

Note that I am not saying that Mahomes WOULD flop, just that we don’t know and I’d think KC would keep Smith and make Mahomes beat him out.

 

In a perfect world, I'm actually quite certain KC wants to hang onto Smith.

 

In the NFL world of salary cap, they either have to trade/cut Smith or trade/cut at least 2 other players - Dee Ford and Tamba Hali, say - and that's just to free up space to get under the cap and sign rookies, not a single FA deal in the place.

 

But, it's possible they will try something along those lines, cut Ford and renegotiate Hali and Johnson, say.