What's Plan C for QB?

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

With a GM who may not want to give up the farm to trade up and a salary cap space that's needed with a huge amount of UFA's, what's the plan for if we aren't able to snag someone in FA or the draft who can compete for the starting job.

 

Let's just assume that the Bills want in on ALL top QB's available.  Cousins could easily go for a price tag outside of where we are willing to go.  Two of the three Qb's in Minnesota are likely to be retained, but it's very well possible that we don't land the leftover.  If they keep Keenum and Bridgewater, we may not even want Bradford.  

 

Then, let's say the Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold all go in the top 3-5 picks and we couldn't get a deal done to move up.  

 

I don't think any of those scenario's are unrealistic at all.  So what then?  Do we actually keep Tyrod and get someone in the later rounds we hope develops and wait until next year when there is less QB competition?  

 

Basically, what would plan C need to include to make you optimistic about our offense next year if we can't land the top 3 guys at QB or FA QB's?

 

My guess is that Plan C is more likely than Plan A or Plan B simply based on the reality that there are limited options for the Bills to get another QB who might be an upgrade to Taylor.  My plan C would be to keep Taylor because he's probably the best the Bills can do unless they get Cousins or Smith, and then draft a QB in Round 2 or 3 if there's one who looks like he would at least make a decent backup QB.  The Bills need a backup better than Peterman; his only recommendation is that he's cheap.

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

As far as Luck's situation, it warrants (re)-reading this:

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/11/16/andrew-luck-europe-why-hes-there-and-what-means/871166001/

 

Nothing has really changed since the article was published almost 2.5 months ago. He may need another shoulder surgery. An labrum surgery is still an iffy proposition. It remains kind of a death knell for pitchers. Not so much for QBs (Brees), but still, not a great track record to go by. So maybe it winds up being in between my lowball estimate (a mid-round 1st) and your high-end one (3 firsts). One thing that won't happen though - we can't "give them a LT" (Glenn) without throwing in another draft pick. Right now I'd say Glenn has negative trade value ...

They aren’t going to sell low. That’s the point. He is either ready to go (3 1sts) or he stays there and they hope he improves. You don’t take a top 10 QB and dump him for peanuts. You can’t throw out a lowball offer and hope they bite. You aren’t buying a foreclosed on house.

 

Glenn has positive trade value if healthy. It’s the same situation. No one is trading for him if they don’t like his medical. If they do, he has value and they have a massive need on the OL. They (and a bunch of teams) would gladly plug him in if healthy. If he isn’t you are stuck with him or you cut him.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Probably Tyrod is the correct answer as worst case scenario as this would be.

 

I would be very upset if they failed to upgrade the QB position with such a rich QB FA period and draft.  I fully expect them to sign a veteran QB like Smith and draft a young talent like Rudolph 

I think this is the best move and makes the most sense. I would love to get Rudolph in the 2nd round. Keep Peterman as qb3.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just thinking out loud, do you think that KC cuts Smith out of respect? Instead of forcing him to go somewhere like the Jets that aren’t good maybe they let him pick his next destination (like the Colts did with Peyton)? If so, we would probably be high on the list behind maybe only Jacksonville.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

50 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I would be okay with any of that, as long as we get another rookie to groom behind Smith

If we get Smith, I don’t need another guy. peterman is young and can develop. Use the picks to fill the roster in around Alex Smith. He came out of the same draft as Rogers. These guys have plenty of time left. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I still don't know how you can evaluate Peterman on this season. In that Chargers game Peterman had less than 2 sec to get the football out. It's not like Peterman was learning and watching a Farve or Brady type QB. He was watching Taylor who has his own problems passing for 200 and reading a defensive. So this 5th rd pick had a bad game in his 1st start vs the Best D-Line in the NFL. 95% of rookie QB's would've suffered the same fate. 

 

I thought Peterman played a solid game considering the weather conditions in the Colts game. It was another game were I don't know how you could evaluate a QB. 

 

To be thrust into the Jags game on the final possession is just insane. To be honest the circumstances Peterman was put into as a rookie 5th rd pick were horrendous. 

 

If you could get a real evaluation of the type of QB Peterman is in those 3 games the Bills should hire you right now. 

 

All I can assume is Peterman was pushing Taylor in practices and after Taylor's awful performances they were forced to make a change. 

Edited January 28, 2018 by Call_Of_Ktulu

[cba fan]

3 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

I think you are right about cap hit. I also think last year they asked about Smith and KC said no to it but they said ok to 2018 trade of him. So when they made the trade they already had a deal for a trade for Smith this coming off season to give them there draft pick back or depending on how well Smith does in 2017 a lower pick as long as Smith resigns a new deal with us in 2018. JMO

Holy crap that would have been epic Billsy fail.

 

To think of the negative backlash FO would have received if last year they traded draft pick #10 for Alex Smith and pick #27 in 2017. This place would have gone apeshit.

 

If McDerma insisted on that buddy deal with his pal Reid at 2017 draft, it would not have been surprising that Whaley would have vocally noted to the media after his firing he did not agree to this. I know Whaley did not get new GM job, but being on record as the trigger man on that deal would have killed any chance for future employment.

 

Or as you speculate it would be a trade for this year giving Chiefs back the pick they gave Bills in 2017 trade which now is #21 in 1st round this year. Again we all would be going apeshit mad over that ridiculous overpay for Alex Smith who Chiefs may be forced to cut on 1st day of new league year 3-14-17 due to they are over the cap. In a year Bills hoped to move up for a franchise QB no less.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by cba fan

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I still don't know how you can evaluate Peterman on this season. In that Chargers me Peterman had less than 2 sec to get the football out. It's not like Peterman was learning and watching a Farve or Brady type QB. He was watching Taylor who has his own problems passing for 200 and reading a defensive. So this 5th rd pick had a bad game in his 1st start vs the Best D-Line in the NFL. 95% of rookie QB's would've suffered the same fate. 

 

I thought Peterman played a solid game considering the weather conditions in the Colts game. It was another game were I don't know how you could evaluate a QB. 

 

To be thrust into the Jags game on the final possession is just insane. To be honest the circumstances Peterman was put into as a rookie 5th rd pick is horrendous. 

 

If you could get a real evaluation of the type of QB Peterman is in those 3 games the Bills should hire you right now. 

 

All I can assume is Peterman was pushing Taylor in practices and after Taylor's awful performances they were forced to make a change. 

They played with the same players. If you didn’t like the time that he had the same has to be the case for Taylor. Also, no one gets better from watching a guy!! Ha ha, that’s absurd.

 

The questions about Peterman coming out we’re in regards to accuracy, arm strength and how he handled pressure. When he has played in NFL games those issues have been magnified. He has been atrocious under pressure, he doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy to fit the ball in tigh spots. So he completed 49% of the passes to his guys and over 10% to the other guys. 

 

Obviously, no one knows what the future holds but he looks like the exact player scouts feared. That’s why he went in the 5th. Also, he was considered one of the most pro-ready. That was a pro for him. He wasn’t some raw prospect like Cardale that was 2 years away from being able to get on the field. Peterman is smart and can get through progressions. He was close to a finished product coming out. He’s just not very good and won’t be starting anywhere. 5th round QBs come and go in this league all of the time. Hell, the Saints used a top 75 pick on Garrett Grayson and cut him after 1 year. It isn’t insane at all to write off a guy that stinks.

[SouthNYfan]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

If we get Smith, I don’t need another guy. peterman is young and can develop. Use the picks to fill the roster in around Alex Smith. He came out of the same draft as Rogers. These guys have plenty of time left. 

 

Smith has one year left on his deal

Who says he will re-sign if he knows we have a QB in waiting?

He was forced out by kaep

He was forced out by mahomes

I don't think he wants that again

Unless we sign him long term he's not gonna be more than a year

That's why I wouldn't risk not taking a QB if we have a chance at a guy we like

Nate has potential, but I'm not willing to bet the next decade on "Nathan Peterman and maybe Alex Smith will re-sign"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Just thinking out loud, do you think that KC cuts Smith out of respect? Instead of forcing him to go somewhere like the Jets that aren’t good maybe they let him pick his next destination (like the Colts did with Peyton)? If so, we would probably be high on the list behind maybe only Jacksonville.

 

No. 

 

In the end, football is a business.  If KC gets several equivalent offers, they may (of respect) ask Smith his preferences rather than telling him his new home, but that's only if the offers are equivalent or "close enough" - unless Smith has a trade approval clause in his contract (no word on that).

 

What the Colts did with Manning had nothing to do with respect.  It was all about business.  Manning wasn't 100% at that time and the Colts had a $28M bonus about to come due.  They cut Manning rather than pay $28M to an aging QB with no guarantee he could throw passably, let alone return to his former form.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

With a GM who may not want to give up the farm to trade up and a salary cap space that's needed with a huge amount of UFA's, what's the plan for if we aren't able to snag someone in FA or the draft who can compete for the starting job.

 

Let's just assume that the Bills want in on ALL top QB's available.  Cousins could easily go for a price tag outside of where we are willing to go.  Two of the three Qb's in Minnesota are likely to be retained, but it's very well possible that we don't land the leftover.  If they keep Keenum and Bridgewater, we may not even want Bradford.  

 

Then, let's say the Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold all go in the top 3-5 picks and we couldn't get a deal done to move up.  

 

I don't think any of those scenario's are unrealistic at all.  So what then?  Do we actually keep Tyrod and get someone in the later rounds we hope develops and wait until next year when there is less QB competition?  

 

Basically, what would plan C need to include to make you optimistic about our offense next year if we can't land the top 3 guys at QB or FA QB's?

 

Plan C would be see what Nate Peterman can do  to get you the #1 overall pick or close next season, I just don't see how you can pay Taylor 18M knowing he can't throw the ball only to be bumped out of the playoffs round 1 again, rinse, repeat and again wipe our chances of getting a top QB yet again. We have the draft capital this year to go all in, Cleveland is an excellent trade partner if Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfiled or Jackson is on the Bills radar. I would give up the motherload for that position and that position only and we can only hope/pray that the guys making the decisions know what the hell they're doing.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Smith has one year left on his deal

Who says he will re-sign if he knows we have a QB in waiting?

He was forced out by kaep

He was forced out by mahomes

I don't think he wants that again

Unless we sign him long term he's not gonna be more than a year

That's why I wouldn't risk not taking a QB if we have a chance at a guy we like

Nate has potential, but I'm not willing to bet the next decade on "Nathan Peterman and maybe Alex Smith will re-sign"

Forced out by Kap. That was the dumbest thing the 49ers ever did. To this day, I will never not feel like the 49ers beat the Ravens if Alex Smith starts. Kapernicks first half is why Joe Flacco has a ring. That Ravens team is the single worst team that I have ever seen, that won a super bowl. No way to know for sure but I bet you Smith doesnt lose that game.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No. 

 

In the end, football is a business.  If KC gets several equivalent offers, they may (of respect) ask Smith his preferences rather than telling him his new home, but that's only if the offers are equivalent or "close enough" - unless Smith has a trade approval clause in his contract (no word on that).

 

What the Colts did with Manning had nothing to do with respect.  It was all about business.  Manning wasn't 100% and the Colts had a $28M bonus about to come due.  They cut Manning rather than pay $28M to an aging QB with no guarantee he could throw passably, let alone return to his former form.

The option would have been picked up by the Colts and would have increased there dead cap space but they could have. In hindsight, the Colts would have been better off turning the roster over and taking the picks. They’d be in a much better place had they dealt him instead of releasing him. 

 

It happens in sports a lot though. There are plenty of examples of a team releasing a guy instead of trading him out of respect. Dwyane  Wade this year. I’m not saying that the Chiefs do it but I’m not convinced that they don’t. 

[Doc Brown]

Plan C

 

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Forced out by Kap. That was the dumbest thing the 49ers ever did. To this day, I will never not feel like the 49ers beat the Ravens if Alex Smith starts. Kapernicks first half is why Joe Flacco has a ring. That Ravens team is the single worst team that I have ever seen, that won a super bowl. No way to know for sure but I bet you Smith doesnt lose that game.

 

Calling that Ravens team the "single worst team I have ever seen" instantly ruins your credibility.

 

Flacco had literally the greatest postseason QB run in NFL history, capping it off with 3 tds against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Calling that Ravens team the "single worst team I have ever seen" instantly ruins your credibility.

 

Flacco had literally the greatest postseason QB run in NFL history, capping it off with 3 tds against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

 

He said worst in NFL history to win a Superbowl so cut him some slack.  I would argue the 2001 Patriots would compete for the top spot.

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

He said worst in NFL history to win a Superbowl so cut him some slack.  I would argue the 2001 Patriots would compete for the top spot.

 

Fair enough.

 

My point earlier was that Smith was forced out by 2 other younger QBs, and only has a year left on his contract if we trade for him.

 

If we draft a QB he's most likely not going to sign an extension.

 

If we don't draft a QB then we are betting on 33 year old Alex Smith to be the guy for the next 3-5 years, hoping he will sign.

 

I wouldn't bet on Smith long term, and he's not signing an extension if we draft a QB.

[mjt328]

This is a great question.  Fans have been talking the past 8-9 months like getting "our guy" was going to be a slam dunk, especially with one of the "best" quarterback classes in history coming in 2018.  But now that the college season has ended, the prospects have declared and draft order is pretty much set - it's starting to become pretty clear that we are still in a really tough place.

 

First of all, I don't see us keeping Tyrod Taylor.  No way.  Not a chance.  That ship has sailed.  It's crystal clear our coaching staff doesn't believe in him.  Last offseason, they exhausted all other options before reluctantly taking him back with a pay cut.  Then they benched him in the middle of a playoff race for a 5th Rounder who wasn't even close to ready.  Now we are clearly looking at draft prospects.  Taylor wants to start.  The guy took less on the market to sign with us originally, just so he could have a chance to start.  He has renegotiated his contract for us twice, instead of hitting free agency.  I think he'll just let the Bills cut him and hit the open market.

 

By my count, there are 6 teams (all ahead of us in the draft) who are desperately in need of a QB:  Cleveland (1 & 4), New York Giants (2), Denver (5), New York Jets (6), Washington (13) and Arizona (15).  There are rumblings about Indianapolis looking for a QB, but there is no way they move from Andrew Luck unless they know his shoulder is done.  There have been talks about Miami doing the same, but I think they give Ryan Tannehill one more shot before throwing in the towel.  Baltimore is probably blowing smoke, hoping for trades to push more talent down the board.  Jacksonville saw enough from Blake Bortles to let him play out 2018.

 

Most likely, one of these six teams is going to sign (or keep) Kirk Cousins.  Maybe it's us.  But probably not.  I just have a hard time seeing us get into that bidding war.  Watching the teams who go after Cousins will tell us a lot about how GMs/Scouts see this particular QB class.  Either way, his signing will knock the number of "needy-QB teams" to five.  Ideally, he will go to one of the teams in the Top 5-6, giving us a much better chance to trade ahead of Washington or Arizona.

 

By my count, there are 5 quarterbacks getting serious consideration for 1st Round status.  Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson.  All of these guys are flawed prospects.  And based on past NFL history, it's highly unlikely all these guys are going to succeed in the NFL.  Maybe 2 or 3 at the most.  It's also questionable if the Bills even like all of these guys, so you can't just assume they would be happy taking anyone who falls. 

 

It all depends on how many QBs the Bills like, and where .  Hopefully they see starting potential in more than a couple guys.  If they only see that in 2-3 guys, then Buffalo will probably need to sell the farm and target a trade with Indianapolis (3) or Cleveland (4).  If one of the top 6 teams gets Cousins, and/or our staff likes 4-5 guys, then we can probably just look to getting ahead of Washington or even staying put.

 

It will also be very important to watch how the veteran QB market plays out in March and April.  The best thing for the Bills is for some of these teams to get themselves sold on a veteran option.  It's quite possible some other team could weed themselves out of the discussion:

It's possible that one of these teams trades for Alex Smith... though I'm skeptical, because I've heard the price tag is a 2nd Rounder.

It's possible that one of these teams is happy taking whoever the Vikings don't want (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater) and making him a starter.

It's possible that the Giants cut or trade Eli Manning, which may cause his new team (assuming he doesn't retire) to be comfortable waiting until a later round.

It's possible that teams really like AJ McCarron, and he causes more noise in free agency than anyone is expecting.

It's possible that Nick Foles will become a popular trade target.  His contract voids after the 2018 season, so the Eagles may be eager to get something in return.

It's possible that after we cut Tyrod Taylor, and another team thinks they can salvage him as a starter.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by mjt328

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

9 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Calling that Ravens team the "single worst team I have ever seen" instantly ruins your credibility.

 

Flacco had literally the greatest postseason QB run in NFL history, capping it off with 3 tds against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

 

That won the Super Bowl. Not worst team period. The worst super bowl champion

Alex Smith sounds like he knows he’s out in KC

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

That won the Super Bowl. Not worst team period. The worst super bowl champion

 

 

Yeah that was pointed out (I missed the Superbowl party)

I disagree with you on that statement, but they definitely weren't one of the strongest, so apologies for misreading your statement about them