Bills salary cap 2018

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, klos63 said:

from 3 wins to super bowl? Wow

That would be a stretch but I could see them going to the playoffs.  Arguably the best WR in the game if not surely top 4 would be back.  They could draft the best RB prospect in quite some time and new coaching staff, I could see them improving quite a bit.

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, klos63 said:

from 3 wins to super bowl? Wow

I may have been the idiot that picked them to go this year. Oops. That said, the Jags went from 3-13 to afc championship game after a HC change so you never know. 

[FearLess Price]

25 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I could see Cordy going to the NYG in a trade... 

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

You barely save anything with Glenn and create another hole. Why do people continue want to make the Dareus mistake?

 

I shouldve explained better.

 

Glenn can be used as trade fodder with the Colts or Giants for us to trade up and get us Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield without having to trade the farm.

 

Both NYG and IND need OL help SEVERLY.

 

I could see us using #21, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick and Glenn to move up into either of those teams draft slots.

 

IF it works out like that we'd have a top QB prospect,  pref Mayfield or Darnold.

 

And still have a 1st, a 2nd, a 4th, 2 5ths, a 6th and a 7th etc...

 

Those 6th and 7th round picks can also be thrown in if we are in a QB draft bidding war.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, freester said:

With Eric Woods retirement  the trade of Marcel Dareus  and inevitably tyrods release. Where are we with the cap?  Is signing Cousins even feasible?  Who knows what will happen with Glenn and his huge cap number. 

I think you're ignoring a fundamental point:   Beane has been very clear that he believes (and I agree) that the best place to get talent at the lowest cost is in the draft.   I think McDermott is on board with that, too.   I think McDermott believes that he can teach guys to what they need to do, guys like Milano and Thompson and others.  So McD is happy to get a bunch of guys out of the draft, if they have talent.

 

That means, I think, that Wood's retirement means it's MORE likely that the Bills will trade another player or two for picks.  If you have more holes to fill, it's more important to go to the place where you can get talent cheap, and that's in the draft.   It also makes it, I think, MORE likely that the Bills will be willing to spend cap room on a QB, if there is one they really want (Cousins, Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum), because that's the one position where cheap talent isn't the best way to go.  

 

So, for example, Wood retiring makes it more likely that the Bills will trade Glenn for a pick.   If I have it right, he will cost the Bills $14 million in cap space to keep him and $11 million if they trade him.   The Bills have Dawkins to play left tackle, they seem at least satisfied with Mills on the right.   If they can trade Glenn for, say, a third round pick, they save $3 million in cap space (making it easier to sign a QB).  Then they can use a first round pick to get a quality center, if there is one in the draft, and use the third round pick they get for Glenn to draft another olineman to groom.  

 

 

[KingRex]

Quote

Tyrod was the perfect QB to get this team into the  playoffs for4 the first time in 17 years! However, its very doubtful he could lead this team to their next reasonable goal Go deep in the playoffs.  You can tell who is a good Bill's fan because the fan is BOTH appreciative of TTs' very good skillset which were a key to this team finally making the playoffs, but ALSO realizes that this team is committed to utilizing a successful dropback passer.  This is not T'yrod .

So thanks to him and there is such a scarcity of playoff making QBs in this league he will do quite well in 2018.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Dead cap is the cost of new regime. Beane said this week he doesn’t expect the dead cap to be where he wants it until 2019. They still appear in better shape than they’ve been in recent years when they would be like 7-9 and up against the cap. They had a winning record, made the playoffs, and have more draft capital and cap space than I can remember. I do not expect them to sign Cousins so I’m not worried about that taking up a big chunk.

Thanks for talking about the big picture.   (I actually hope they do sign Cousins, but that's beside the point.)   The point is that it often is the case that new regime makes changes, and changes cost money.   

 

I will remember for a long time Whaley talking about the fact that there's enough cap room to have six core players, and he thought he had them in Taylor, Sammy, Glenn, Hughes, Gilmore and Dareus.   McCoy was an added bonus.   Whaley believed the Bills were going to win with those core players and with some improved talent on the rest of the roster.  

 

Then Beane and McDermott came in and didn't want Sammy, Gilmore or Dareus.   They probably don't want Taylor.   They may not want Glenn at his pricetag.   When the new regime is that fundamentally unhappy with the core players that the previous regime spent all the cap money on, you have to assume that you're going to be stressed in the cap department until they can flush those contracts out of the system.   You can't expect the new regime to just let the contracts play out, because that means they're trying to win with players that don't fit their philosophy.  

 

I wonder if the Pegulas and Whaley understood that McD was going to want this kind of turnover when they hired him.   And if McD wasn't clear about it, I wonder if the Pegulas understood that Beane certainly was going to do it this way.   I tend to think they did, because everything I've seen suggests to me that the Pegulas intend to let McD and Beane have the time they need to get the team running the way they want it.  

[bobobonators]

Next year's bills team is going to look very different. We have so many spots to either add or replace. If we cut TT/Glenn, we need:

 

2 DL - Dareus replacement and an edge rusher

1 LB - we need an upgrade at MLB

2 OL - Wood and either a RG or RT; Incognito is old as hell too 3 OL??

1 QB

 

That's 6 starting caliber players we need to draft/sign; possibly 7. Beane is going to earn his pay this off season.

 

In an ideal world, I would:

 

1. Cut TT/Glenn

2. Sign Cousins

3. Sign the best DL we can afford in FA

4. Rebuild the entire OL through the draft (drafting 2-3 OL)

5. Draft a MLB

6. Resign Gaines

 

It's a lot but it's doable. We would have to hit on our draft picks:  MLB/DL in first round; OL/OL in second round, is how I would go. Then in 3rd round go with a speedy deep threat at WR to compliment KB and Zay

Edited January 27, 2018 by bobobonators

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 hours ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

Gaines 3-4? You're nuts. He's going to get 8-9 mil per year...

Good luck with that. It's not coming from this regime or me if I'm in charge. The guy was making 2M and is a good, scheme specific player, with durability issues. I'm not giving him 8-9 million year. I could see 5 at most no more. Draft a cheaper replacement if that's the market.

Edited January 27, 2018 by horned dogs

[Clemfield2622]

8 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Good luck with that. It's not coming from this regime or me if I'm in charge. The guy was making 2M and is a good, scheme specific player, with durability issues. I'm not giving him 8-9 million year. I could see 5 at most no more. Draft a cheaper replacement if that's the market.

 

 

don't worry, nobody is confusing you with an NFL GM. We'll see what he gets

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

 

 

don't worry, nobody is confusing you with an NFL GM. We'll see what he gets

Why so snarky?48 posts and you don't know me and I don't know you. I have an opinion and so does everyon else. Being rude just labels you as a tool!

Edited January 27, 2018 by horned dogs

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Ittakestime said:

 

You barely save anything with Glenn and create another hole. Why do people continue want to make the Dareus mistake?

Dareus wasn’t a mistake 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

31 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Next year's bills team is going to look very different. We have so many spots to either add or replace. If we cut TT/Glenn, we need:

 

2 DL - Dareus replacement and an edge rusher

1 LB - we need an upgrade at MLB

2 OL - Wood and either a RG or RT; Incognito is old as hell too 3 OL??

1 QB

 

That's 6 starting caliber players we need to draft/sign; possibly 7. Beane is going to earn his pay this off season.

 

In an ideal world, I would:

 

1. Cut TT/Glenn

2. Sign Cousins

3. Sign the best DL we can afford in FA

4. Rebuild the entire OL through the draft (drafting 2-3 OL)

5. Draft a MLB

6. Resign Gaines

 

It's a lot but it's doable. We would have to hit on our draft picks:  MLB/DL in first round; OL/OL in second round, is how I would go. Then in 3rd round go with a speedy deep threat at WR to compliment KB and Zay

 

...if Glenn is healthy, why the cut?.....move him to the right side which may be less wear and tear than the blind side.....Dawkins at LT is cheap so your tackle money is relevant.....and just say NO to Cousins......I'd rather overpay for a beer versus him, the poster boy for mediocrity......Allen is a pretty good personnel guy and George Allen's kid....why the hell can't HE get a long term deal done if Cousins is the greatest invention since beer?.....makes no sense.........this guy has overplayed his hand.........

[billsfan89]

My main priority if I were the Bills would be to resign Gaines and some of the better backups. I think then they will have a little bit of cap space to work with signing Star or another run stuffing DT would be a good get that considering the market would come fairly affordable and a mid-level starting caliber LB would be two gets that could plug some holes on a good value. 

 

I don't expect much from the Bills in free agency but Gaines and a good DT are two things that they desperately need to make happen. 

[GoBills808]

I hate to keep repeating myself, but these guys are from Carolina and saw exactly how to deal with a cap problem between the Hurney/Gettelman switchover. I’m not too concerned about salary cap issues at this point.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...if Glenn is healthy, why the cut?.....move him to the right side which may be less wear and tear than the blind side.....Dawkins at LT is cheap so your tackle money is relevant.....and just say NO to Cousins......I'd rather overpay for a beer versus him, the poster boy for mediocrity......Allen is a pretty good personnel guy and George Allen's kid....why the hell can't HE get a long term deal done if Cousins is the greatest invention since beer?.....makes no sense.........this guy has overplayed his hand.........

Why the cut?    My guess is that he's gone, one way (cut) or the other (trade).

 

Why is he gone?   Because it's now completely clear that Beane and McD want a team with their kind of guys.   That means a lot of changes.   Obviously, we've seen it already, and it's likely that we'll continue to see it.  

 

Think for a minute what that means in terms of acquiring new players.   Don't focus on who might be leaving, just focus on how to acquire new players.   To do that, you need capital.   There are two kinds of capital:  draft choices and cap room.   So I'm guessing the way Beane is looking at his job right now is to find ways to build capital so that he can get new players.   

 

So in the case of Glenn, the question for Beane and McD is NOT whether Glenn is their kind of player.  The question is whether they can use Glenn to increase their capital.   The answer to that is yes.   They can get a lot of cap room by cutting him.   Trading him also gets them cap room, but less, but it also gets them a pick.   Yes, you create a hole if you move on from Glenn, but you already have Dawkins filling that hole, and you can get another lineman with some of the cap room you've created or with the pick you acquired.   It's a net win to move Glenn.  

 

Wood retiring creates a new hole to fill, which means the Bills need MORE capital, which means moving Glenn is more likely today than it was when the season ended.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

14 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

My main priority if I were the Bills would be to resign Gaines and some of the better backups. I think then they will have a little bit of cap space to work with signing Star or another run stuffing DT would be a good get that considering the market would come fairly affordable and a mid-level starting caliber LB would be two gets that could plug some holes on a good value. 

 

I don't expect much from the Bills in free agency but Gaines and a good DT are two things that they desperately need to make happen. 

For those of you who are interested, If you use the Fanspeak salary cap manager(i'll include a link) it uses OTC data I believe; it does a reasonable job, I think, of simulating the different situations. In the included scenario I have for arguments sake removed Tyrod, Cordy and Wood, this has the Bills at just shy of 56M in cap space. I then went ahead and offered EJ Gaines 3 years/ 4M 40% signing bonus, Kirk Cousins 5yr/ 25 M 60% signing bonus and Star Lotulelei 4yrs/8.5 they all accepted in this scenario with still 30 M in cap available https://fanspeak.com/mtc/freeagency.php. I have done  this type of scenario with Paul Richardson and 5 yrs 9 M before and the other approximately where they are. It doesn't always work...sometimes Cousins take 27.5 and Lotulelei 9-9.5 and you get rejected, but it gives and idea. FWIW

Edited January 27, 2018 by horned dogs

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

For those of you who are interested, If you use the Fanspeak salary cap manager(i'll include a link) it uses OTC data I believe; it does a reasonable job, I think, of simulating the different situations. In the included scenario I have for arguments sake removed Tyrod, Cordy and Wood, this has the Bills at just shy of 56M in cap space. I then went ahead and offered EJ Gaines 3 years/ 4M 40% signing bonus, Kirk Cousins 5yr/ 25 M 60% signing bonus and Star Lotulelei 4yrs/8.5 https://fanspeak.com/mtc/freeagency.php

The link doesn't show your outcome and I don't want to try to recreate it.   I assume you're saying this works within the cap.   If so, you're on exactly the page I'm on.   

 

I don't know the rules about trades of players for picks, but assuming such trades are possible this time of year, I think Tyrod or Cordy could be traded, which might give a little less cap relief but add a pick or two.   

 

I think Cousins is the only free agent QB who has a good chance of turning out to be a long-term (5+ years) solution; if Beane and McD think he is, I wouldn't be surprised to see them follow your formula.   If they don't like Cousins, then I'd think they'll be more likely to try trade to get more picks, either to move up for a QB or just to get further down the road on restructuring the way they want.

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

 

You barely save anything with Glenn and create another hole. Why do people continue want to make the Dareus mistake?

 

You were wrong about the cap space so this was your fall back?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Why the cut?    My guess is that he's gone, one way (cut) or the other (trade).

 

Why is he gone?   Because it's now completely clear that Beane and McD want a team with their kind of guys.   That means a lot of changes.   Obviously, we've seen it already, and it's likely that we'll continue to see it.  

 

Think for a minute what that means in terms of acquiring new players.   Don't focus on who might be leaving, just focus on how to acquire new players.   To do that, you need capital.   There are two kinds of capital:  draft choices and cap room.   So I'm guessing the way Beane is looking at his job right now is to find ways to build capital so that he can get new players.   

 

So in the case of Glenn, the question for Beane and McD is NOT whether Glenn is their kind of player.  The question is whether they can use Glenn to increase their capital.   The answer to that is yes.   They can get a lot of cap room by cutting him.   Trading him also gets them cap room, but less, but it also gets them a pick.   Yes, you create a hole if you move on from Glenn, but you already have Dawkins filling that hole, and you can get another lineman with some of the cap room you've created or with the pick you acquired.   It's a net win to move Glenn.  

 

Wood retiring creates a new hole to fill, which means the Bills need MORE capital, which means moving Glenn is more likely today than it was when the season ended.  

....double edged sword...if, IF Glenn is healthy, they know what they have which may mean one less hole to fill after the Eric shocker....interesting times coming up and hope this gang comes up real BIG.....stay tuned.............

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

 

You barely save anything with Glenn and create another hole. Why do people continue want to make the Dareus mistake?

It's clear that Beane and McD are NOT INTERESTED in high-priced talent.  They have a different philosophy.   They still might break the bank on a star here or there, but they are focused on lower-cost good, young talent.   They're focused on the draft.   

 

Watkins, Dareus and Gilmore were the three high-priced guys, special-talent guys on the roster (other than McCoy).   They unloaded all three within their first year on the job.   Beane's said that the way to get good players most cheaply is through the draft, not through free agency.   

 

Glenn isn't a truly special talent, but he's up there.   And he comes with a really high price tag.   So I think he has a bulls-eye on his back.