QB: Mike White WKU

[SoTier]

14 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I don't get returning to the well of "let's take a non-elite QB." We have gone that route since JK retired with the exception of Manuel and it has never worked.  

 

I agree with this with a caveat. 

 

QBs are basically two kinds: franchise QBs and everybody else -- a Ryan Fitzpatrick or a Tyrod Taylor or a Nick Foles, and generally, there's one franchise QB in a draft.  A good year might yield a couple of franchise QBs, one of which is at the lower end of the franchise spectrum (Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco).   A bad year like 2007 or 2013 yields no franchise QBs.  Generally speaking, franchise QBs go in the Top 5 picks.  Franchise QBs who come out of the bottom half of the first round are pretty rare, and about as likely as those who come out of later rounds: Chad Pennington (2000), Aaron Rodgers (2005) and Joe Flacco (2008).  Scouting is pretty thorough these days, so there aren't a lot of top prospects QBs "slipping through the cracks" and falling to the 2nd half of the first or into the second or third round unless there are some extenuating circumstances. 

 

My caveat is that if you're drafting a QB outside of the Top 5, unless it's truly a great QB draft ( like 2004) or a QB has some "extenuating circumstances", you're drafting an "everybody else".  The question is, as a GM and a team, can you live with those "extenuating circumstances" if they come with an otherwise potentially great QB prospect?  Tom Brady was a part time player because of athletic department politics.  Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are short.  Kirk Cousins is built more like a HS basketball player than a pro football player.

 

So, if Baker Mayfield, who is short and supposedly has some baggage, is available at 17, and the Bills traded up for him, I wouldn't be opposed to that because without those two negatives, he'd probably go much higher.  I also wouldn't cry in my beer if they passed on him either.

 

 

32 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Touche. But we made him the first QB taken, so I figured I'd give them a point for apparently trying.  

 

Actually, taking a QB in the first round who wasn't a first round talent ought to lose them at least one point IMO.  They simply took a QB in the first round just to take a QB in the first round.  FAIL!

21 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Man, if only we had just sweetened the pot to Jacksonville...scaredy-cats thinking there receiver was going to be gone if they traded with us.

 

...and, correct me if I am wrong...if we don't trade the following year's 1st round pick to move up for Losman we would have been able to pick up Aaron Rodgers at that spot?

 

Absolutely.  The Bills would have had the 18th pick in 2005, and Rodgers, who had been expected to be the #1 pick and fell for some reason, wasn't taken until #24 by the Packers.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

40 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Losman was the 4th QB taken and we unwisely traded back into the 1st round to take him only after drafting lee evans, which should show you that they didn't actually view him as elite. We took him as a consolation prize after not getting Big Ben and tried to sell him as being just as good as Ben, Eli and Rivers  

This can never happen again.  Btw we tried to hop over Pitt and get Big Ben and we didn't agree to terms. We were trying to move up i believe 2 , 3 spots with Hou. I wonder what the pks were being discussed.  

40 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Losman was the 4th QB taken and we unwisely traded back into the 1st round to take him only after drafting lee evans, which should show you that they didn't actually view him as elite. We took him as a consolation prize after not getting Big Ben and tried to sell him as being just as good as Ben, Eli and Rivers  

This can never happen again.  Btw we tried to hop over Pitt and get Big Ben and we didn't agree to terms. We were trying to move up i believe 2 , 3 spots with Hou. I wonder what the pks were being discussed.  

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

51 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I've watched a few games of his. He certainly has the physical tools you look for in a developmental guy. However, his ball placement is very inconsistent and he seems to take a long time to process what's happening around him. I'd be fine taking a chance on him in like the 6th or 7th round, but I prefer a handful of other guys once we get past the 1st round guys. Eliminating the guys that I view as 1st rounders (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, and Lamar), I'd go with:

 

1. Kyle Lauletta

2. Logan Woodside

3. Luke Falk

4. Mason Rudolph

5. Chase Litton

6. Riley Ferguson

7. Kurt Benkert

8. Mike White

I have been watching Luke Falk a lot this month. Solid arm strength good vision, needs some good coaching but could become a QB like Cousins. He makes some throws that are amazing, some nice fade route passes in the end zone. He has his mental mistakes but I think those could be fixed with coaching. Seems to be a first one in last one to leave type player with film study. Not sure he is a leader but seems to be a quiet guy that lets his play on the field do the talking. I am impressed with his upside, on a lot of his passes the ball is thrown where only the WR can catch it and it's right in stride. He move safties with his eyes then jams the football into tight windows. The more I watch the more I'm liking Luke Falk.

[blacklabel]

I've seen Mike White's name linked with the Bills as far back as October. I believe a Rotoworld piece said White would be a darkhorse QB that would climb up boards. I haven't looked at the dude whatsoever but in reading up on him he certainly seems to fit the off-field and character stuff McBeane like. 

 

I know it'd take a lot to get into the top 5 picks and this team has plenty of spots to fill... all depends on what they do in free agency, if they free up enough space and fill, maybe half their needs in FA, maybe that'll allow them to deal some picks to get their franchise guy. 

 

Whatever happens, I expect a pretty busy off-season for this team. I think more trades are coming, they're gonna try to stockpile some more picks and have enough ammo to try to trade up... or they can meddle around another season and try to get an Alex Smith or something. But... if they got a guy that they truly believe in, it's way past high time for them to work some magic and come out of the draft with one of these top QBs. 

19 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This can never happen again.  Btw we tried to hop over Pitt and get Big Ben and we didn't agree to terms. We were trying to move up i believe 2 , 3 spots with Hou. I wonder what the pks were being discussed.  

 

I remember that '04 draft. It was like the second or third draft where I really started digging into prospects and whatnot. Bills were high on Rivers and Ben for that draft. They reportedly were trying to make a play to get just inside the top 10 where they thought Rivers might be, but then he picked up all sorts of steam and went 4th overall. After that, you're correct, they did try to work their way up the board from 13 to at least 7, 8 or 9. Donahoe probably tried to lowball any team they talked to because it's no secret that they've had a reputation for doing that. Pittsburgh stood pat and ended up with a Hall of Famer. Bills jumped back in the first for Losman and promptly ruined his career. Them schmucks should've kept Bledsoe for one more season after 2004 to let Losman get up to speed but instead they said, "Well, Bledsoe just lead this team to one of the best six game win streaks in their history (they were crushing teams in the second half of the season) but let's ditch him for the kid and see what happens." Bums!

 

If anything, I'm excited that the current brass at OBD seems to have a much better handle on things and a much clearer vision of what they wanna do. Sure mistakes will be made along the way but that's how we learn. It's gonna shake out one way or the other.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I have been watching Luke Falk a lot this month. Solid arm strength good vision, needs some good coaching but could become a QB like Cousins. He makes some throws that are amazing, some nice fade route passes in the end zone. He has his mental mistakes but I think those could be fixed with coaching. Seems to be a first one in last one to leave type player with film study. Not sure he is a leader but seems to be a quiet guy that lets his play on the field do the talking. I am impressed with his upside, on a lot of his passes the ball is thrown where only the WR can catch it and it's right in stride. He move safties with his eyes then jams the football into tight windows. The more I watch the more I'm liking Luke Falk.

 

I liked Falk a lot during last year's draft process when there were rumors he might declare early and I was really impressed by his game against USC this year; I thought he looked better than Darnold in that game. I haven't seen too much of him since, but from what I hear, he had a really poor stretch in the 2nd half of the year. I still like him a decent amount though; whenever I've seen him play, he's shown good ball placement and is willing to step into a hit in order to make a good throw, whereas nearly every top QB in this draft class shies away from contact. My main question with him is velocity, much like most of the small school guys that I like, is velocity.

 

Outside of my top 5, I'd basically throw all the prospects in two categories: (1) Physical tools but inconsistent accuracy, and (2) Good accuracy but questionable arm strength.

 

Physical Tools:

1. Chase Litton

2. Riley Ferguson

3. Kurt Benkert

4. Mike White

 

Accurate:

1. Kyle Lauletta

2. Logan Woodside

3. Luke Falk (I give a tiny edge to Woodside but those two are very close)

4. Mason Rudolph (don't really think he's accurate either, but I put him in this bucket due to the lackluster velocity)

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

If the Bill's miss out on the top 4 and are not thrilled with Rudolph or Jackson does someone like Mike White work for you ?

 

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentuckiana/2018/01/25/wku-quarterback-mike-white-getting-little-nfl-draft-buzz-senior-bowl/1062820001/

 

Looks interesting.  Any idea what's up with the large and negative "rush yards" this year (-258 on 64 attempts)?

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Losman was the 4th QB taken and we unwisely traded back into the 1st round to take him only after drafting lee evans, which should show you that they didn't actually view him as elite. We took him as a consolation prize after not getting Big Ben and tried to sell him as being just as good as Ben, Eli and Rivers  

My headache's back.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Looks interesting.  Any idea what's up with the large and negative "rush yards" this year (-258 on 64 attempts)?

In College sacks are removed from rush yards instead of pass yards. I can't see the article though, so I don't know if that makes sense in the context of what you're looking at.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

In College sacks are removed from rush yards instead of pass yards. I can't see the article though, so I don't know if that makes sense in the context of what you're looking at.

 

Thanks.  I guessed it was sacks.  But crap, that's a lot of yards.  In case you can make more out of it:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mike-white-6.html

[DCOrange]

 

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Looks interesting.  Any idea what's up with the large and negative "rush yards" this year (-258 on 64 attempts)?

 

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

In College sacks are removed from rush yards instead of pass yards. I can't see the article though, so I don't know if that makes sense in the context of what you're looking at.

 

Yeah, that's definitely what it is. You'll notice the same thing for most pocket QBs. Josh Rosen, for example, rushed for -154 yards in his UCLA career. As a sophomore, Luke Falk rushed for 3 TDs while gaining -114 yards lol.

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks.  I guessed it was sacks.  But crap, that's a lot of yards.  In case you can make more out of it:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mike-white-6.html

You figure each sack is somewhere between -5 and -10 yards...-258 equates to roughly 35 sacks if he doesn't rush for any yards at all. I'd guess he probably got sacked around 50 times this year based on his rushing numbers.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

I don't get returning to the well of "let's take a non-elite QB." We have gone that route since JK retired with the exception of Manuel and it has never worked.  

 

I would argue that even Manuel wasn't a departure from the Bills SOP.  No one thought Manuel was elite.  There was talk there might be 0 QB drafted in the first round his year.  Nix didn't have the stomach to wait until the 2nd, but they thought so highly of him that they traded down.

 

I don't mind the idea of the Bills grabbing a guy they like where they are in the 1st or high in the 2nd - BUT ONLY IF THEY HAVE SIGNED A QUALITY FA

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

You figure each sack is somewhere between -5 and -10 yards...-258 equates to roughly 35 sacks if he doesn't rush for any yards at all. I'd guess he probably got sacked around 50 times this year based on his rushing numbers.

 

It just stood out to me because it was such a change from his Jr year at WKU, any idea why?

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It just stood out to me because it was such a change from his Jr year at WKU, any idea why?

No clue. I just know the following:

 

Junior year: 22 sacks, -128 yards

Senior year: 48 sacks, -348 yards (most lost yards in the country by the way)

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It just stood out to me because it was such a change from his Jr year at WKU, any idea why?

Not saying it's definitely the cause, but he lost his top 2 receiving threats to the NFL (WR & TE). Maybe in '16 he was comfortable with them as safety valves and this year he felt he didn't have that trust so he took more sacks?

[Jamie Muellers Ghost]

Alex Smith, or Sam Bradford,  or A.J. McCarron 1-2 years

Peterman, White (or similar)

 

Keep all your picks for DL, LB, OL, etc.

[SouthNYfan]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Not saying it's definitely the cause, but he lost his top 2 receiving threats to the NFL (WR & TE). Maybe in '16 he was comfortable with them as safety valves and this year he felt he didn't have that trust so he took more sacks?

 

Also lost to draft:

 

Forrest Lamp (guard) went to San Diego chargers in 2nd round, pick #6, was a round one projection, one of the top lineman in the country

 

Max halpin (center) 4 year starter

 

Darrell Williams, Jr. (Tackle and guard) starter

 

 

So they lost 3 of their 5 guys starting on the OLINE, including Lamp, who was one of the best in the country.

 

Most likely why a fairly immobile pocket qb took a lot more sacks (in conjunction with the wr/te loss as stated above)

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Not saying it's definitely the cause, but he lost his top 2 receiving threats to the NFL (WR & TE). Maybe in '16 he was comfortable with them as safety valves and this year he felt he didn't have that trust so he took more sacks?

 

It doesn't seem like a definite deal-breaker to me, it just caught my eye as something I'd want to understand.

Losing a trusted receiver (much less 2) can have a definite impact on a QB, especially if the remaining receivers aren't as good at getting separation.

Though that statement does seem to evoke much doubt in these parts.

5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Also lost to draft:

 

Forrest Lamp (guard) went to San Diego chargers in 2nd round, pick #6, was a round one projection, one of the top lineman in the country

Max halpin (center) 4 year starter

Darrell Williams, Jr. (Tackle and guard) starter

 

So they lost 3 of their 5 guys starting on the OLINE, including Lamp, who was one of the best in the country.

Most likely why a fairly immobile pocket qb took a lot more sacks (in conjunction with the wr/te loss as stated above)

 

Thanks!

[Cripple Creek]

3 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Touche. But we made him the first QB taken, so I figured I'd give them a point for apparently trying.  

That’s a ridiculous statement. I’m not willing to break open that wound, but there  nothing to be lauded in the Manuel pick.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

Alex Smith, or Sam Bradford,  or A.J. McCarron 1-2 years

Peterman, White (or similar)

 

Keep all your picks for DL, LB, OL, etc.

 

Alex Smith, Check

 

Sam Bradford, we could be in for K. Kolb part Deux where the "bridge" gets blown up.  "No" unless you've got a sure replacement in the barn

 

AJ McCarron, IMHO this is too much like Ryan Fitzpatrick/Tyrod Taylor Part 2, handling our QB situation by rooting over other team's  scrap heap.  If I'm wrong, help me understand why.  EDIT: I should add I'm perfectly fine with picking up a 2nd tier FA and letting him compete, just not bringing him in as the main alternative to a shaky backup and a rookie.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan