OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, swnybillsfan said: i am incredibly open to jackson. though, i know nothing about him other than what is posted here and what i hear on the radio. i wouldn't be opposed to a mobile qb, i just don't want a running qb. i am not calling jackson a running qb, but i know that others have. i am definitely intrigued by this guy. ....thanks for your assessment and analysis...much appreciated....
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Posted January 20, 2018 Just now, PIZ said: I'm very intrigued with Jackson. The guy is electric. However, I am concerned about this: Completion %: 2015….. 54.7 2016..... 56.2 2017..... 59.1 College career average... 57.0 Allen has a similar comp % and Kiper has him mocked to go #1 overall. I would argue that Lamar also hasn't had the same quality of OL or receiving weapons like some of the other QB's in the draft had too. But totally agree, its where some of the risk or concern comes from, and I think the biggest issue has been inconsistent footwork at times like someone mentioned, but that is correctable. Sign Teddy (or keep TT) and let the kid learn this next season until he is ready, unless he flat out wins the job in preseason.
DCOrange Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 For those that haven’t watched full games of his, I highly recommend checking him (and basically every other draft prospect) out through this Google Doc. I’m personally very high on Lamar, but you can decide for yourself by watching these videos that show the good and the bad from him. He definitely sails some passes but I think he’s more accurate than he gets credit for and while he runs a lot of read option, he’s really quite comfortable throwing from the pocket. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13RgfxMu4CW0NKMZebZ88cgg7b7MlszjfzXxEeId7Y34/htmlview#
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: He is as dangerous with his legs as TT, maybe even more (hard to say since we are comparing college and NFL). But to me, he seem to be a better passer than Tyrod as after watching lots of clips and highlights of him I see a lot of big time NFL throws, tight window throws, timing throws, etc. TT isnt as bad as some here make him out to be, but he also has legit limitations as a thrower. I have seen a lot of things that Lamar does that are better those things that TT is limited at. Think about this...with TT we have flirted with the playoffs under terrible coaching, a terrible defense, and terrible receivers (due to injuries) prior to this year. Then with TT in 2017 we made the playoffs with mostly terrible receiving group as a result of FA, trades, and injuries and a D that fell apart for 3 weeks where it gave up an average of 46 points per week. If we can get someone who is a lethal threat like TT with his legs, but is also better as a passer where TT is weak..then that could be interesting and exciting. .....analysis is MUCH appreciated 'Dawg....many thanks.......... 1
Gugny Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 My case against: Lamar Jackson We've had an older version of him for the past three years, resulting in a total offense ranking 26-31 in each of the years he started. No gracias. 1
DCOrange Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, PIZ said: I'm very intrigued with Jackson. The guy is electric. However, I am concerned about this: Completion %: 2015….. 54.7 2016..... 56.2 2017..... 59.1 College career average... 57.0 His completion percentage hides just how huge of a leap he’s made this year. The WR play fell off a cliff this season. Adjusted for drops, he was over 73% of his passes, a higher rate than Darnold and within 1% of Rosen and Rudolph.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said: you keep Taylor if you take this guy. Develop and scheme the Offense for Jackson right away. When he is ready ? His surroundings will be developed. TT can bridge that. Yeah, thats what I would do too for same reasons. But I could see the Bills wanting to sign Teddy instead as he would be cheaper than TT, which I wouldn't hate either. Edited January 20, 2018 by Alphadawg7
DCOrange Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gugny said: My case against: Lamar Jackson We've had an older version of him for the past three years, resulting in a total offense ranking 26-31 in each of the years he started. No gracias. The offense was in the 10-12 range the two years before this season on a per drive basis.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, DCOrange said: The offense was in the 10-12 range the two years before this season on a per drive basis. And 3rd in 2016 in most TD's scored behind only Atlanta and Saints in the 15 games TT started.
Gugny Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, DCOrange said: The offense was in the 10-12 range the two years before this season on a per drive basis. Passing offense. I stand corrected. Anyway ... he sucks. And so will Lamar Jackson.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, PIZ said: I'm very intrigued with Jackson. The guy is electric. However, I am concerned about this: Completion %: 2015….. 54.7 2016..... 56.2 2017..... 59.1 College career average... 57.0 I have come to the conclusion that completion percentage must mean nothing or at least is a poor indicator of accuracy. If you look at college QB stats, guys like EJ Manuel were more accurate than. guys like tom Brady. I don’t get it, but somehow this stat doesn’t tell the whole story on accuracy.
PIZ Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said: I have come to the conclusion that completion percentage must mean nothing or at least is a poor indicator of accuracy. If you look at college QB stats, guys like EJ Manuel were more accurate than. guys like tom Brady. I don’t get it, but somehow this stat doesn’t tell the whole story on accuracy. Just scary when we are coming off how many years of horrid QB play? I want a sure bet. Daboll is probably the best place though for Lamar Jackson. 1
swnybillsfan Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: He is as dangerous with his legs as TT, maybe even more (hard to say since we are comparing college and NFL). But to me, he seem to be a better passer than Tyrod as after watching lots of clips and highlights of him I see a lot of big time NFL throws, tight window throws, timing throws, etc. TT isnt as bad as some here make him out to be, but he also has legit limitations as a thrower. I have seen a lot of things that Lamar does that are better those things that TT is limited at. Think about this...with TT we have flirted with the playoffs under terrible coaching, a terrible defense, and terrible receivers (due to injuries) prior to this year. Then with TT in 2017 we made the playoffs with mostly terrible receiving group as a result of FA, trades, and injuries and a D that fell apart for 3 weeks where it gave up an average of 46 points per week. If we can get someone who is a lethal threat like TT with his legs, but is also better as a passer where TT is weak..then that could be interesting and exciting. this is the type of thing that can get a guy all kinds of excited! 1
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, PIZ said: Just scary when we are coming off how many years of horrid QB play? I want a sure bet. Daboll is probably the best place though for Lamar Jackson. I hear you! I am definitely not advocating for Jackson. To me, the most critical thing is to get a really accurate, smart QB. I am not sure that’s him. Just watching his highlight video above, almost every one of those throws was to a wide open receiver.
K D Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Lamar Jackson could be pretty good for a couple of seasons. Vick, RG3, Young all had a couple of good years. They don't last though. Injuries, hits, LB spies. Eventually they don't become as effective. If the Bills do draft him (I highly doubt it) they would be wise to keep Tyrod seeing as how they are similar. If Jackson beats him out or one of them gets hurt then you can plug in a QB with a similar skill set
BringBackOrton Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: For a long time I felt like Baker Mayfield was going to be a Bill next year, long before many were on that train. Got flamed a lot saying he wouldn't go until the 2nd or 3rd round. Funny thing happened along the way...Baker shut everyone up and proved he is a lock for the first round barring some incident or injury, and Bills had a winning season and wound up with a much lower draft pick than expected. Now to get Baker, its going to cost to move up, and probably cost more than Beane would consider spending, especially the way he covets picks and the depth of QB in this draft. I honestly do not expect a big move up for a QB in this draft because its going to be expensive with all the QB needy teams in the top 12, which is probably the min you need to get to this year to get any of the top 4 guys. Instead I could see us making a modest move if someone they like slips out of the top 12 or even a small trade up to get a stud defender they might covet like Roquan or something. So where does that leave the Bills options at QB...well guys like Mason, Falk, and of course Jackson are the obvious ones to look at. I still strongly feel that making a play for Cousins, if he is available, would be the best move so we can focus the draft picks on other players. But we dont know if Cousins is available, and there will be stiff competition for his services with better weather to play in than Buffalo, so not sure he would even choose the Bills if he was an option. So, I started watching a lot of footage of Falk, Mason, and Jackson...and after doing that, I am really coming around to the idea of Lamar Jackson. We dont need to discuss how special he is with his legs, thats a given. What I was really surprised to see is how many straight legit tight NFL throws he makes both from the pocket and on the run. I have loved watching him play, but up until now I had not watched closely at the whole package, and I really feel this kid has by far the highest ceiling of any player in this draft at QB. The issue is he has a lower floor than some, and its going to come down to developing the kid. My Plan: Sign Teddy Bridgewater (or keep Taylor), and draft Lamar Jackson...assuming Kirk Cousins doesn't become a Bill. Take someone like (in no particular order) Vita Vea, Mike McGlitchey, Roquan Smith (might need to trade up for him), or Rashaan Evans at 21 then take Jackson at 22. We may even be able to take 2 players at 21 and 22 that aren't a QB, and package a couple of our next picks together to move back up to end of the first or top of 2nd to grab Jackson too. There are things to like and dislike about most the QB's, but I think waiting on a QB to keep as many picks as we can for other holes and grabbing a guy like Jackson would be pretty exciting. I know not everyone is going to like this idea, and thats fine. But I think to fairly asses him, you need to remove Tyrod from your minds and not just label him another TT just because he makes plays with his legs. Watch this tape...yes anyone can make someone look good on a highlight video, but look at the legit NFL throws, the tight windows, the touch, etc...its there! Cannon and a playmaker but lacks accuracy, vision, and sound mechanic base. At best, he's a project with a ton of physical talent. At worst, he's an RB playing QB. How many incredibly athletic QB's who struggle with basic passing fundamentals make it in the NFL? Edited January 20, 2018 by jmc12290
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2018 Author Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: Cannon and a playmaker but lacks accuracy, vision, and sound mechanic base. At best, he's a project with a ton of physical talent. At worst, he's an RB playing QB. How many incredibly athletic QB's who struggle with basic passing fundamentals make it in the NFL? Wilson has done pretty good and Watson was off to a great start (someone I was critical of coming out of college too). All fair points, but is anyone that enamored with Mason or Falk? Odds are, Beane won't pay the price to get Allen or Baker (Neither Darnold or Rosen are going to be obtainable in my opinion). I think 4 QB's are likely going in first 13 picks, and all 4 could go top 10 as there will be a lot of action I think for anyone willing to trade down with so many QB needy teams this year. So for me, I think we are likely looking at choices of Mason, Falk, or Jackson. And I like to gamble on upside, and I do think he is under rated as a passer. And if we can get a guy like TT that is better where TT is weak as a passer, that would be a pretty hard offense to defend. I won't be mad if we grab someone else, I just have started really coming around to Jackson as the guy with the most upside. Sign Teddy or keep TT to give Lamar the time he needs to develop and see what this kid can do. He likely cant be any worse than TT right, and that got us to the playoffs.
starrymessenger Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 (edited) I wouldn't say that Jackson has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft because there is Josh Allen. IMO the sky is the limit for both of these prospects at the next level, but there is an important difference between the two. The difference is that it is Jackson, the so-called running QB, who has provided evidence that he is capable of executing from the pocket in a traditional pro offence, not Allen (they both play in Os with predominately pro concepts). Oh yeah, and Jackson did also manage to run for about 1,600 yards last year while he was at it, Allen 532. Shame on Lamar. We'd all like him so much better if he hadn't run like that lol. Bill Polian might even begin to think he was a QB! By draft day there is every possibility that he will be regarded as the #1 prospect in this QB class. The problem therefore is not Jackson. The problem is that we are likely picking too far back, way too far back, to nab him. I just pray that the Jets don't get him. Right now I think we are the team most likely to start pressuring the Patriots in the AFC East. If the Jets get Lamar Jackson, that could well change things IMO. Edited January 20, 2018 by starrymessenger 1
JohnC Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said: I wouldn't say that Jackson has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft because there is Josh Allen. IMO the sky is the limit for both of these prospects at the next level, but there is an important difference between the two. The difference is that it is Jackson, the so-called running QB, has provided evidence that he is capable of executing from the pocket in a traditional pro offence, not Allen (they both play in Os with predominately pro concepts). Oh yeah, and Jackson did also manage to run for about 1,600 yards while he was at it, Allen 532. Shame on Lamar. We'd all like him so much better if he hadn't run like that lol. Bill Polian might even begin to think he was a QB! By draft day there is every possibility that he will be regarded as the #1 prospect in this QB class. The problem therefore is not Jackson. The problem is that we are likely picking too far back, way too far back, to nab him. I just pray that the Jets don't get him. Right now I think we are the team most likely to start pressuring the Patriots in the AFC East. If the Jets get Lamar Jackson, that could well change things IMO. I like Lamar Jackson a lot, as I do Mayfield. This organization needs to identify their top qb prospects and then make an aggressive move to be in a position to get one of them. I certainly have my preferences but I'm still very open minded about the best qb prospect for us. What I don't want to see happen is for us to be passive and then be surprised when another team leaps ahead of us to acquire the player we had our sights on. If the Bills are going to make a mistake in this draft I would rather it come from being aggressive rather than be defensive. 1
Mikie2times Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 No thanks and yes, I have watched him. Long release, stares down his targets, takes a long time in the pocket leading to high sack rates. Learned the game with his legs first and now is trying to learn with his head. Certainly a project. If we don't want to invest in Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield I would rather invest outside the QB position. Prefer the former.
Recommended Posts