Scot McCloughan on Kirk Cousins: "I Don't See Special" - Headed for UFA

[pimp on da' net]

18 hours ago, papazoid said:

TD's thrown

 

KC - 27

TT- 13

 

that's more than slightly better

 

if cousins was on this years team....we beat JAX

1) As a fair(er) comparison why not look at total TD's? Its well know that TT also score TD with his legs...

 

Also, let's get a better overall total QB comparison:

 

KC- 27 TD passes, 13 INT's W/L 7-9 (overall record 26-30-1)- existing offensive system 2017

TT - 14 TD passes, 4 INT's, W/L 8-6 (overall record 22-20)- new offensive system 2017

 

KC is a far better passer indeed but what does that get you? He needs a supporting case around him to succeed, see his total overall W/L record. But how do you surround him with the necessary talent when his contract will account for a large portion of the cap?

 

Is the cost to sign KC worth eating up 25+ Mil of the payroll? 

 

That's franchise QB money and KC is a slightly above average QB who has a TD/INT ratio of  2:1 and a below .500 career winning percentage.

 

2) Since we're going hypothetical's ,  If KC was on this team hypothetically speaking we would be 7-9 and we would NOT have even played Jax in the playoffs, ijs.

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's a product of high volume passing attempts in schemes designed by Sean McVay and Jay Gruden that greatly padded his statistics.  He isn't a high level decision maker with great accuracy who makes his teammates better. The following are all QBs I'd rather have instead of him:

 

Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Jimmy Garoppolo
Phillip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Cam Newton

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger are Hall of Fame QBs.   If you're objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB, then Cousins is not for you.   You're only chance is to draft one, which means you have to go all in on trading up every few years until you hit one.   I don't think that's a good strategy for building a team, but if that's what you want, I won't argue with you. 

 

Garoppolo is unproven.   Stafford hasn't outplayed Cousins.   Cousins actually is a better quarterback than Newton.  

 

It leaves Cousins where I've said he is - not a Hall of Famer but a top 10 quarterback in the current NFL.   

 

To say that he's a product of a high volume passing attack simply isn't true.   His passer ratings have been excellent the past three years, which means he has a good TD to INT ratio and a good completion percentage.   So where do you get this Accuracy concern from?   He's had several fourth quarter comebacks.   

 

I just don't know where you're getting this conclusion that he isn't a good QB.   What do you want from the guy?   

 

I get that some people think the money will be too much for what you get, but forget the money for a minute.   If you don't want Cousins, what's your plan for getting a QB better than Cousins - like a Matt Ryan or better - in Buffalo?

[26CornerBlitz]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger are Hall of Fame QBs.   If you're objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB, then Cousins is not for you.   You're only chance is to draft one, which means you have to go all in on trading up every few years until you hit one.   I don't think that's a good strategy for building a team, but if that's what you want, I won't argue with you. 

 

Garoppolo is unproven.   Stafford hasn't outplayed Cousins.   Cousins actually is a better quarterback than Newton.  

 

It leaves Cousins where I've said he is - not a Hall of Famer but a top 10 quarterback in the current NFL.   

 

To say that he's a product of a high volume passing attack simply isn't true.   His passer ratings have been excellent the past three years, which means he has a good TD to INT ratio and a good completion percentage.   So where do you get this Accuracy concern from?   He's had several fourth quarter comebacks.   

 

I just don't know where you're getting this conclusion that he isn't a good QB.   What do you want from the guy?   

 

I get that some people think the money will be too much for what you get, but forget the money for a minute.   If you don't want Cousins, what's your plan for getting a QB better than Cousins - like a Matt Ryan or better - in Buffalo?

 

I'd take Garoppolo over Cousins 100 times out of 100 chances. As for Cousins being better than Stafford and Newton, that's a matter of your opinion that I happen to disagree with. 

 

Cousins is pretty good, but not worth top tiered money that will tie up quite a bit of cap space.  That's where I'm at and I already posted what I would do. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[BillsFan130]

43 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's a product of high volume passing attempts in schemes designed by Sean McVay and Jay Gruden that greatly padded his statistics.  He isn't a high level decision maker with great accuracy who makes his teammates better. The following are all QBs I'd rather have instead of him:

 

Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Jimmy Garoppolo
Phillip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Cam Newton

I would even add in Andrew Luck as well (only if he's healthy of course)

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

I would even add in Andrew Luck as well (only if he's healthy of course)

 

I totally forgot about Luck. Absolutely add him to the list. 

[PromoTheRobot]

59 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

His cap hit might prevent us from signing other free agents this coming season.  Cousins would likely be the biggest difference maker they could sign though.  The following season the Bills are projected at having over 100k in cap (before Cousins and other re-signings.)  To me, perfectly worth it.  They can get players in the draft with all those picks instead of unloading the important ones on one guy that has potential.

If you did sign Cousins you would still have to upgrade WR or what's the point? I suppose KB is an upgrade once healthy. Zay maybe. You need at least one more.

Edited January 20, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[eball]

With Cousins on this roster the Bills would be legitimate SB contenders for the next 5-6 years.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

Cousins is pretty good, but not worth top tiered money that will tie up quite a bit of cap space.  That's where I'm at and I already posted what I would do. 

This point is where I disagree fundamentally.  This is the core issue. 

 

In my opinion, "not worth top tier money" is a concept that doesn't apply to QBs.   It may to other players, but not QBs.

 

In my opinion, if you want to compete for championships in the NFL, have a chance to compete every year, you have to have a top 10 QB.   There are, in my opinion, only two tiers - the top 10 and the others.   If you have a top 10 QB, you have a chance to compete every year.   If you don't, you don't.   You might get there once in a while with a top 20 QB, but you need a lot of things to fall right.  

 

So you gotta have a top 10 QB.   Once you've decided that, in my opinion it doesn't matter if you're paying the guy #2 money and he's #8.    Sure, you'd rather be paying #8 money to have a QB who's #8, but that isn't what's important.   What's important is having a top 10 QB.   If you're overpaying, well, that's the price you're paying to have a chance at a title every season.   

 

Under which scenario am I going to be the happier fan?   (1)  My team has a top 20 QB and the paying him like a top 30 guy.   (2)  My team has a top 10 QB and they're paying him like a top 2 guy.   I'll take (2) all day, every day.   

 

When the Browns write the big check to get Cousins, am I going to be laughing because they overpaid and the Bills have Tyrod?    No.   The Bills have Peterman?  No.   The Bills have some guy they drafted?    No, at least not until that guy turns into a top 10 NFL QB.   

 

A top 10 QB comes along in free agency maybe once every five years.   Brees was the last.   People thought Schaub was one but he busted.   When that guy comes along, he gets overpaid.   That's the way it works.   Brees got overpaid when he signed.   Do you think Saints fans cared?

 

When you have a top 10 QB and his contract runs out, you have to pay him top 5 money to keep him, because if you don't, someone else will.   That's simply the price.   He doesn't get the highest salary in the league because people think he's the best QB in the league.   He gets it because someone will pay it.   Flacco got it, and it turned out to be a mistake.   Ryan got it, and it wasn't a mistake.   

 

If you don't pay the price, you don't get the guy.   

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Shaw66

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Rodgers ok.  Wilson?  You think Wilson carries his team?  Not with that defense he didn't.

 

Why do you think Cousins is not franchise caliber?  IMO he is in the tier directly behind the elites (Brady, Rodgers, Brees) That is the tier where you shell out money for your QB. That is the tier I would call Franchise. If you are holding out for Brady, Rodgers, Brees you are likely to hold out forever.

Didn’t you know 26 knows all about QBs and he’s not to be questioned?

 

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Garoppolo is unproven.   Stafford hasn't outplayed Cousins.   Cousins actually is a better quarterback than Newton.  

I think Jimmy is his new idol @ QB. 

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This point is where I disagree fundamentally.  This is the core issue. 

 

In my opinion, "not worth top tier money" is a concept that doesn't apply to QBs.   It may to other players, but not QBs.

 

In my opinion, if you want to compete for championships in the NFL, have a chance to compete every year, you have to have a top 10 QB.   There are, in my opinion, only two tiers - the top 10 and the others.   If you have a top 10 QB, you have a chance to compete every year.   If you don't, you don't.   You might get there once in a while with a top 20 QB, but you need a lot of things to fall right.  

 

So you gotta have a top 10 QB.   Once you've decided that, in my opinion it doesn't matter if you're paying the guy #2 money and he's #8.    Sure, you'd rather be paying #8 money to have a QB who's #8, but that isn't what's important.   What's important is having a top 10 QB.   If you're overpaying, well, that's the price you're paying to have a chance at a title every season.   

 

Under which scenario am I going to be the happier fan?   (1)  My team has a top 20 QB and the paying him like a top 30 guy.   (2)  My team has a top 10 QB and they're paying him like a top 2 guy.   I'll take (2) all day, every day.   

 

When the Browns write the big check to get Cousins, am I going to be laughing because they overpaid and the Bills have Tyrod?    No.   The Bills have Peterman?  No.   The Bills have some guy they drafted?    No, at least not until that guy turns into a top 10 NFL QB.   

 

A top 10 QB comes along in free agency maybe once every five years.   Brees was the last.   People thought Schaub was one but he busted.   When that guy comes along, he gets overpaid.   That's the way it works.   Brees got overpaid when he signed.   Do you think Saints fans cared?

 

When you have a top 10 QB and his contract runs out, you have to pay him top 5 money to keep him, because if you don't, someone else will.   That's simply the price.   He doesn't get the highest salary in the league because people think he's the best QB in the league.   He gets it because someone will pay it.   Flacco got it, and it turned out to be a mistake.   Ryan got it, and it wasn't a mistake.   

 

If you don't pay the price, you don't get the guy.   

 

 

Shaw,

I don't agree with you on everything but you are spot on with this!

IF and I keep saying IF the "process" takes us down a top 10 QB FA signing you don't worry if you may be "overpaying".

 

The same goes for signing a QB on your team so he DOES NOT get to FA.

 

TOP 5 QB Average Salaries:

1.  Stafford - 27 million

2.  Carr - 25 million

3.  Luck - 24 1/2 million

4.  Brees - 24 1/4 million

5.  Flacco -  22+ million

 

5 QB's, total of 2 Super Bowls.

 

It's just what QB's cost.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Didn’t you know 26 knows all about QBs and he’s not to be questioned?

 

 

I think Jimmy is his new idol @ QB. 

I don't know 26 that well, but I wouldn't dump on him that much.  

 

As for Jimmy, I like his prospects, but he hasn't proven anything to me yet.   Paying him 25 is a much bigger risk than paying Cousins 25.  

 

What he doesn't get is that Cousins is solidly in the range of 5th to 12th best QB in the league.   Look at his stats over the past three years.   Same as Stafford's, better than Newton's (who's really had only one good year).   People rave about Luck - Cousins has been better.  Matt Ryan's had one blowout year; otherwise, he's struggled to put up numbers as good as Cousins, and he's throwing to Julio Jones.   

 

Cousins isn't Rodgers, I know.   But look at the guys who are in the 12 to 20 range of QBs - Eli, Flacco, Taylor, Dalton.   I can't believe he wouldn't want Cousins over those guys. 

[26CornerBlitz]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This point is where I disagree fundamentally.  This is the core issue. 

 

In my opinion, "not worth top tier money" is a concept that doesn't apply to QBs.   It may to other players, but not QBs.

 

In my opinion, if you want to compete for championships in the NFL, have a chance to compete every year, you have to have a top 10 QB.   There are, in my opinion, only two tiers - the top 10 and the others.   If you have a top 10 QB, you have a chance to compete every year.   If you don't, you don't.   You might get there once in a while with a top 20 QB, but you need a lot of things to fall right.  

 

So you gotta have a top 10 QB.   Once you've decided that, in my opinion it doesn't matter if you're paying the guy #2 money and he's #8.    Sure, you'd rather be paying #8 money to have a QB who's #8, but that isn't what's important.   What's important is having a top 10 QB.   If you're overpaying, well, that's the price you're paying to have a chance at a title every season.   

 

Under which scenario am I going to be the happier fan?   (1)  My team has a top 20 QB and the paying him like a top 30 guy.   (2)  My team has a top 10 QB and they're paying him like a top 2 guy.   I'll take (2) all day, every day.   

 

When the Browns write the big check to get Cousins, am I going to be laughing because they overpaid and the Bills have Tyrod?    No.   The Bills have Peterman?  No.   The Bills have some guy they drafted?    No, at least not until that guy turns into a top 10 NFL QB.   

 

A top 10 QB comes along in free agency maybe once every five years.   Brees was the last.   People thought Schaub was one but he busted.   When that guy comes along, he gets overpaid.   That's the way it works.   Brees got overpaid when he signed.   Do you think Saints fans cared?

 

When you have a top 10 QB and his contract runs out, you have to pay him top 5 money to keep him, because if you don't, someone else will.   That's simply the price.   He doesn't get the highest salary in the league because people think he's the best QB in the league.   He gets it because someone will pay it.   Flacco got it, and it turned out to be a mistake.   Ryan got it, and it wasn't a mistake.   

 

If you don't pay the price, you don't get the guy.   

 

 

Perfectly fine with me because he's not the guy. 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Shaw,

I don't agree with you on everything but you are spot on with this!

IF and I keep saying IF the "process" takes us down a top 10 QB FA signing you don't worry if you may be "overpaying".

 

The same goes for signing a QB on your team so he DOES NOT get to FA.

 

TOP 5 QB Average Salaries:

1.  Stafford - 27 million

2.  Carr - 25 million

3.  Luck - 24 1/2 million

4.  Brees - 24 1/4 million

5.  Flacco -  22+ million

 

5 QB's, total of 2 Super Bowls.

 

It's just what QB's cost.

Thanks for making the point about what it costs to re-sign your top 10 guy.   As of today it appears that exactly ONE of those guys is on a Hall of Fame trajectory - Brees.   The other four got what some people would think is Hall of Fame money.   

 

Is it working out in every case?   Absolutely not.   Was it the wrong move?   No.   Oakland betting on Carr was a better bet than saving $10 million and having no QB.  

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Perfectly fine with me because he's not the guy. 

That's fine with me, too.  If you're the GM and you don't think he's top 10, top 12, then I agree you shouldn't spend the money.   If Beane and McD don't think so, they should save their money.  

 

But if you think he's top 10, you're going to have to pay top dollar, and it's the right move, in the sense that it's a smart bet.  

[reddogblitz]

7 hours ago, ALF said:

I would rather use a 3rd rd pick for Alex Smith , draft the best QB without trading up and hope Peterman can progress.

 

Cousins would limit cap to bring in needed FAs. 

 

ALF - I agree. You da man, or ALF, or something.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for making the point about what it costs to re-sign your top 10 guy.   As of today it appears that exactly ONE of those guys is on a Hall of Fame trajectory - Brees.   The other four got what some people would think is Hall of Fame money.   

 

Is it working out in every case?   Absolutely not.   Was it the wrong move?   No.   Oakland betting on Carr was a better bet than saving $10 million and having no QB.  

 

I just posted this in another thread.

 

I can live without having the next Manning/Brady.

I just want the Bills to have a top 12 QB for 4-5 years running.

Please.

 

I don't care how they do it, just do it.

If they go down the FA route it will cost.

If they make a big move to go up the draft, they better get it right.

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If you did sign Cousins you would still have to upgrade WR or what's the point? I suppose KB is an upgrade once healthy. Zay maybe. You need at least one more.

 

Kb and Zay will make plays because Cousins will throw accurate passes

 

Cousins likes to spread it around, the 3 and 4 wideouts will be targeted 

[Kirby Jackson]

18 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Kb and Zay will make plays because Cousins will throw accurate passes

 

Cousins likes to spread it around, the 3 and 4 wideouts will be targeted 

Zay has the worst year a receiver has had in like the last 5 seasons by the advanced metrics (notice how far below anyone else he is graded). http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

 

The Bills CANNOT be counting on that guy. If he contributes it’s found money but he did nothing to inspire confidence. He was historically bad. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[26CornerBlitz]

1 hour ago, eball said:

With Cousins on this roster the Bills would be legitimate SB contenders for the next 5-6 years.

 

Like Washington has been? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In my opinion, if you want to compete for championships in the NFL, have a chance to compete every year, you have to have a top 10 QB.   There are, in my opinion, only two tiers - the top 10 and the others.   If you have a top 10 QB, you have a chance to compete every year.   If you don't, you don't.   You might get there once in a while with a top 20 QB, but you need a lot of things to fall right.  

 

So you gotta have a top 10 QB.   Once you've decided that, in my opinion it doesn't matter if you're paying the guy #2 money and he's #8.    Sure, you'd rather be paying #8 money to have a QB who's #8, but that isn't what's important.   What's important is having a top 10 QB.   If you're overpaying, well, that's the price you're paying to have a chance at a title every season.   

 

Under which scenario am I going to be the happier fan?   (1)  My team has a top 20 QB and the paying him like a top 30 guy.   (2)  My team has a top 10 QB and they're paying him like a top 2 guy.   I'll take (2) all day, every day.   

 

To your point re: top 10 QB and Cousins. 

I took my QB Draft Stats data and filtered it for QB who have more than 1 1/2 seasons of starts for insufficient data (this does eliminate Goff, Wentz, and Garappolo), and for QB who have thrown for <220 YPG on average for not generating enough passing attack (this eliminates Kaepernick, Smith, and Prescott and would eliminate Tyrod).

 

Then I sorted it for YPA, TD/INT ratio, and completion percentage, as three stats widely reported as correlating to a successful passing attack and to wins.

 I don't think many would argue with the names on that list except perhaps near the bottom, for Winston and Mariota.

Cousins shows up on that list at #6.  If you sort in a different order, he's still on the list, order just shifts around a bit (up a few spots or down a few spots.)

IOW, by objective QB criteria other than passing yardage (skewed by a high-volume passing attack)  he is a top-10 QB and has been for years.

To tie together your point about competing every year with McClougahn's "I don't see special": that's exactly what I was getting at up-thread when I said it's not clear to me McCloughan knows how to put together a championship roster.  He has talent evaluation skills, yes, no question.  But you're damn straight about needing a consistent good QB to compete for a championship regularly, and if he didn't want to pay Cousins asking price 'cuz he's not Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, he needed to figure out how to get Drew Brees II or Aaron Rodgers Jr and bring them to Washington.
 

 

 

Quote

 

When the Browns write the big check to get Cousins, am I going to be laughing because they overpaid and the Bills have Tyrod?    No.   The Bills have Peterman?  No.   The Bills have some guy they drafted?    No, at least not until that guy turns into a top 10 NFL QB.   

 

A top 10 QB comes along in free agency maybe once every five years.   Brees was the last.   People thought Schaub was one but he busted.   When that guy comes along, he gets overpaid.   That's the way it works.   Brees got overpaid when he signed.   Do you think Saints fans cared?

 

A minor "nit" here.  Schaub was not a free agent until late in his career, when it was already evident "bad things happened" to his throwing control.  The Texans traded 2 - 2nd round picks for him.  In exchange, the Texans got 6 years of solid to very good (sometimes top-10) QB play, and 2 playoff appearances, which is more than they've had anytime since.  I would take a value of "bust" like that, although of course I'd prefer better, for longer, which brings me to a second point:

A team can win, and reach multiple playoffs with a QB who is 'not quite all that' like Schaub or Smith.  But they still need to address the question "at QB, how will we get better?"  Where the Texans went wrong with Schaub was in failing to do that.  Over 10 years, 3 draft picks (7, 5, and 4 round) used on TJ Yates and Tom Savage, are not the answer.
 

Quote

When you have a top 10 QB and his contract runs out, you have to pay him top 5 money to keep him, because if you don't, someone else will.   That's simply the price.   He doesn't get the highest salary in the league because people think he's the best QB in the league.   He gets it because someone will pay it.   Flacco got it, and it turned out to be a mistake.   Ryan got it, and it wasn't a mistake.   

 

If you don't pay the price, you don't get the guy.   

 

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To your point re: top 10 QB and Cousins. 

I took my QB Draft Stats data and filtered it for QB who have more than 1 1/2 seasons of starts for insufficient data (this does eliminate Goff, Wentz, and Garappolo), and for QB who have thrown for <220 YPG on average for not generating enough passing attack (this eliminates Kaepernick, Smith, and Prescott and would eliminate Tyrod).

 

Then I sorted it for YPA, TD/INT ratio, and completion percentage, as three stats widely reported as correlating to a successful passing attack and to wins.

 I don't think many would argue with the names on that list except perhaps near the bottom, for Winston and Mariota.

Cousins shows up on that list at #6.  If you sort in a different order, he's still on the list, order just shifts around a bit (up a few spots or down a few spots.)

IOW, by objective QB criteria other than passing yardage (skewed by a high-volume passing attack)  he is a top-10 QB and has been for years.

To tie together your point about competing every year with McClougahn's "I don't see special": that's exactly what I was getting at up-thread when I said it's not clear to me McCloughan knows how to put together a championship roster.  He has talent evaluation skills, yes, no question.  But you're damn straight about needing a consistent good QB to compete for a championship regularly, and if he didn't want to pay Cousins asking price 'cuz he's not Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, he needed to figure out how to get Drew Brees II or Aaron Rodgers Jr and bring them to Washington.
 

 

 

 

A minor "nit" here.  Schaub was not a free agent until late in his career, when it was already evident "bad things happened" to his throwing control.  The Texans traded 2 - 2nd round picks for him.  In exchange, the Texans got 6 years of solid to very good (sometimes top-10) QB play, and 2 playoff appearances, which is more than they've had anytime since.  I would take a value of "bust" like that, although of course I'd prefer better, for longer, which brings me to a second point:

A team can win, and reach multiple playoffs with a QB who is 'not quite all that' like Schaub or Smith.  But they still need to address the question "at QB, how will we get better?"  Where the Texans went wrong with Schaub was in failing to do that.  Over 10 years, 3 draft picks (7, 5, and 4 round) used on TJ Yates and Tom Savage, are not the answer.
 

 

Can't read the data, but I'm not surprised. 

 

Thanks about Schaub.   

 

The real point is that you don't many shots at guys who have had success in the league.  

 

Heck, when Brees was a free agent, people were worried that he'd bust.