Scot McCloughan on Kirk Cousins: "I Don't See Special" - Headed for UFA

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes and no. Garropolo has 7 NFL starts and is 7-0. He’s been in the league 4 full seasons and has attempted 272 passes. The sample size is small but it’s not 1 game of Rob Johnson.

 

It may be early to say he’s in the top 10 but I’d bet that there are 10 QBs in the league that they take straight up for him. I’m guessing that Cousins will get more than Jimmy G this offseason but not a ton more. As a hypothetical say that Jimmy G and Cousins each had 1 year and $22M left on their contract. Would Washington flip Cousins straight up for Garoppolo? Would SF say yes? I would bet that SF would rather Garoppolo than Cousins all things being equal.

 

Yup! So would anyone with a decent set of eyes who has watched either of them play.

[LABILLBACKER]

I want elite. I want a franchise top 12 qb. Not a .500 guy who will occasionally get you a 300 yard game. Paying him  $34M is absolutely ridiculous. I'd rather rent Alex  Smith for a substantially lower contract and let him mentor Peterman and whoever we draft for 2 years.

Edited January 22, 2018 by LABILLBACKER

[Tenhigh]

On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 5:56 PM, papazoid said:

TD's thrown

 

KC - 27

TT- 13

 

that's more than slightly better

 

if cousins was on this years team....we beat JAX

At home.

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Is Cousins better than TT: Yes.  Is Cousins so much better than TT that we should throw a ridiculous amount of money at him: nope.  Get a comparable yet lesser priced FA (Bradford, Smith, etc), spend the money on the front 7 defense and perhaps OL.  

 

Yes I would throw money at him.

 

Much better QB then the Bill's had at QB maybe since Bledsoe but much better then him. Some people say Nick Foles but Kirk much better then him IMO. Nick is good with a good D bad D exposed.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes and no. Garropolo has 7 NFL starts and is 7-0. He’s been in the league 4 full seasons and has attempted 272 passes. The sample size is small but it’s not 1 game of Rob Johnson.

 

It may be early to say he’s in the top 10 but I’d bet that there are 10 QBs in the league that they take straight up for him. I’m guessing that Cousins will get more than Jimmy G this offseason but not a ton more. As a hypothetical say that Jimmy G and Cousins each had 1 year and $22M left on their contract. Would Washington flip Cousins straight up for Garoppolo? Would SF say yes? I would bet that SF would rather Garoppolo than Cousins all things being equal.

Not saying Jimmy is bad, good or great but I still need to see a full schedule against legit contenders.   See Cassel.  

 

The SOS he has faced thus far has not been very hard.  

IIRC 

Seattle was in decline, Jacksonville and Bortles, SF and Goff. The rest were easy teams to defeat.  

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[ndirish1978]

On 1/19/2018 at 10:44 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Okay, but again, you're excusing Cousins' poor record because he plays a tough schedule with a less than talented team. Well what are the Bills outside our secondary? 

 

Isn't the whole point of getting the magical franchise QB is finding someone who elevates his team? 

 

That's kind a difficult point to argue. Are you saying you don't know they would have been a much worse team without him?

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Yes I would throw money at him.

 

Much better QB then the Bill's had at QB maybe since Bledsoe but much better then him. Some people say Nick Foles but Kirk much better then him IMO. Nick is good with a good D bad D exposed.

 

do you think Cousins is much better than Bradford or Smith?   I haven't watched a ton of Cousins, but what I have seen would have me put him in that category....a tier below "break the bank."  I agree with Cousins over Foles.  

[reddogblitz]

14 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Haven't people learned that with Tyrod?  

and Osweiller and Tebow and Cassel and ............... ................ .............

 

Rob Johnson

 

Watson

Wentz

 

Way too early to these guys too.

Edited January 23, 2018 by reddogblitz

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes and no. Garropolo has 7 NFL starts and is 7-0. He’s been in the league 4 full seasons and has attempted 272 passes. The sample size is small but it’s not 1 game of Rob Johnson.

 

It may be early to say he’s in the top 10 but I’d bet that there are 10 QBs in the league that they take straight up for him. I’m guessing that Cousins will get more than Jimmy G this offseason but not a ton more. As a hypothetical say that Jimmy G and Cousins each had 1 year and $22M left on their contract. Would Washington flip Cousins straight up for Garoppolo? Would SF say yes? I would bet that SF would rather Garoppolo than Cousins all things being equal.

 

I was starting to pull together my annual post season QB rankings yesterday..... the two hardest guys to rank are Watson and Garoppolo because with both you love what you have seen so far.... but you are looking at 5 starts and 7 starts..... and how do you rank that against an Andy Dalton type who has been in the league 7 years and been consistently good but not great?? 

 

If you gave most NFL GMs a choice I suspect they take Jimmy or Deshaun over the known ceiling of Dalton but it is such a small sample size when you are trying to say who is superior.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Rob Johnson

 

Watson

Wentz *

 

Way too early to these guys too.

good point.   Lets add Goff too.  * One bad season one good season.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

On 1/22/2018 at 7:00 AM, Process said:

Brady

Roethlisberger

Luck

Rivers

Newton 

Brees

Ryan

Rodgers

Stafford

Wentz

Watson

Wilson

Garappalo

 

And there are several that are debatable, Carr, Winston, Mariota, flacco, goff

 

He is not a top ten QB lol, not even close. 

 

Some of you are nuts. I hope you goes to the Jets.

I'd probably put Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Wilson, and Ryan ahead of Cousins. That puts him 9th, for me anyway.

 

Guys I'd put him ahead of are Rivers, Carr, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Mariota, Winston, Manning, Flacco, Smith.

 

Wentz, Goff, Watson, Prescott, and Jimmy G are still in Wait & See territory.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'd probably put Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Wilson, and Ryan ahead of Cousins. That puts him 9th, for me anyway.

 

Guys I'd put him ahead of are Rivers, Carr, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Mariota, Winston, Manning, Flacco, Smith.

 

Big Ben is way better than him for me.  I'd have Rivers over him too (though there is some Rivers in him I think).  The rest of your list I agree he is ahead of.  I suppose that is 11th.  

Edited January 23, 2018 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Big Ben is way better than him for me.  I'd have Rivers over him too (though there is some Rivers in him I think).  The rest of your list I agree he is ahead of.  I suppose that is 11th.  

Ben's placement is partially based on the fact that he is contemplating retirement after every season, and that he's benefited from incredible talent at the skill positions throughout his career.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Ben's placement is partially based on the fact that he is contemplating retirement after every season, and that he's benefited from incredible talent at the skill positions throughout his career.

 

He remains the 4th best QB in the league for me after the three obvious ones.  He had a shaky first few weeks in 2017 but once he hit his stride he was outstanding again.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/19/2018 at 7:42 PM, HT02 said:

I think that is an very honest and on-target assessment.   I think he is over-hyped and would be fine at the right price but not what he's going to make.

 

Here's the problem in a nutshell: no QB is worth the money they're going to make on the open market. 

 

I mean, seriously.  One guy with a brain, feet, and an arm.  >$20M a year?  What's he gonna do for that, achieve world peace?  Cure cancer?

The NFL marketplace has become absurd.  But if you're running a football team, It Is What It Is.

 

It's like the joke about the guy who takes his brother to a psychiatrist:

"he thinks he's a chicken" "how long has this been going on?" "10 years" "why didn't you bring him in sooner?" "we needed the eggs"

 

If an NFL team wants to win, they need to take enough shots at finding a QB.  F*ck if he's "worth it".  Can he do what you need?

-Top FA, you lower your risk by having a body of work in the NFL to work with.  You need to look very carefully at the details just in case.  What plays does he make consistently?  When he screws up, why?  Is he completing off-target passes because his wideouts are All-World?  Sign a high-priced FA who can't cut it, you screw your team.

-Draft, higher risk.  Experts who do the job for a living screw up half the time at the top of the draft.  If you take someone you like who falls to you or a modest trade-up, less risk.  Trade away 2 drafts worth of picks and the guy screws up, you screw your team.

 

The problem the Bills have had is a penchant for doing neither.  We try to get by on the QB Blue Light Specials, then we give them all 3 years.

 

Edited January 23, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[HT02]

On 1/23/2018 at 9:38 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Here's the problem in a nutshell: no QB is worth the money they're going to make on the open market. 

 

I mean, seriously.  One guy with a brain, feet, and an arm.  >$20M a year?  What's he gonna do for that, achieve world peace?  Cure cancer?

The NFL marketplace has become absurd.  But if you're running a football team, It Is What It Is.

 

It's like the joke about the guy who takes his brother to a psychiatrist:

"he thinks he's a chicken" "how long has this been going on?" "10 years" "why didn't you bring him in sooner?" "we needed the eggs"

 

If an NFL team wants to win, they need to take enough shots at finding a QB.  F*ck if he's "worth it".  Can he do what you need?

-Top FA, you lower your risk by having a body of work in the NFL to work with.  You need to look very carefully at the details just in case.  What plays does he make consistently?  When he screws up, why?  Is he completing off-target passes because his wideouts are All-World?  Sign a high-priced FA who can't cut it, you screw your team.

-Draft, higher risk.  Experts who do the job for a living screw up half the time at the top of the draft.  If you take someone you like who falls to you or a modest trade-up, less risk.  Trade away 2 drafts worth of picks and the guy screws up, you screw your team.

 

The problem the Bills have had is a penchant for doing neither.  We try to get by on the QB Blue Light Specials, then we give them all 3 years.

 

I am with you 100% with the need to get a top 5 QB, my point is I don't think that describes what Cousins is or can be.  I'd say his top end is 10-15 which is fine but from what I've seen of him play I don't see him as a guy who can take an 8-8 team and make them 11-6 or 12-5.  He will take up a huge chunk of the salary cap and you won't have much money left to build around him.  This guy could be the top paid QB in the NFL and he's not going to bring that kind of value to your club.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, HT02 said:

I am with you 100% with the need to get a top 5 QB, my point is I don't think that describes what Cousins is or can be.  I'd say his top end is 10-15 which is fine but from what I've seen of him play I don't see him as a guy who can take an 8-8 team and make them 11-6 or 12-5.  He will take up a huge chunk of the salary cap and you won't have much money left to build around him.  This guy could be the top paid QB in the NFL and he's not going to bring that kind of value to your club.  

 

It depends upon your 8-8 team, right?

 

The Bills were a 9-7 team last year, 9-9 if you count playoffs.  We lost 2 regular season games by 3 and 4 points - one TD wins it for us.

We lost the playoff game by 7 points - 1 TD ties it.

 

I can see 2 more wins there easily with a QB who can mount an effective passing attack, if you disagree, why?  That would put us at 11-5.  If we're able to sustain more drives and keep the D fresh, maybe we get more stops and other games are within reach - the first Jets game, for example.  Now we're 12-4.

 

Now that said, hopefully the Bills have someone picking apart Cousin's game to assess whether or not he's worth it from the details of how he goes through his progressions, handles pressure in the pocket, and the precision of various throws, but in terms of the stats available he actually is in the top 10 and a bunch of the QB commonly listed as "top 10" have not, for the last couple years, been performing at that level - Cam Newton would be one example.

 

On the QB pay, I think we've been cheerfully over-paying for every position BUT QB.  Maybe if we didn't hand out huge contracts to multiple DLmen and to a TE we underutilize 'cuz, QB, we can pay a QB AND build around him.

The whole Bills talent situation has been compounded by 1) feeling that we're "close" so it's smart to bring in high-price FA to get us "over the hump" (Mario Williams, Clay) 2) creating holes for ourselves by constant coaching churn and scheme changes, which has led to shedding talented draftees who are no longer "right" but go on to the playoffs with other teams.  If we stop doing that yeah, we can pay a QB and put a team around him - how is N'Orleans doing it, they had a D this year for sure?  And for that matter, the Eagles have been throwing around QB money, not to 1 QB but to several (Bradford, Chase Daniels, Wentz, Foles - look at the signing bonuses they ate with the first 2)

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HT02 said:

I am with you 100% with the need to get a top 5 QB, my point is I don't think that describes what Cousins is or can be.  I'd say his top end is 10-15 which is fine but from what I've seen of him play I don't see him as a guy who can take an 8-8 team and make them 11-6 or 12-5.  He will take up a huge chunk of the salary cap and you won't have much money left to build around him.  This guy could be the top paid QB in the NFL and he's not going to bring that kind of value to your club.  

I don't think the objective is a top 5 QB.   I think it's top 10.   If you're objective is top 5, it will take 20 or 30 years to get there.   Dolphins have been looking that long.  Jets.   Redskins, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cincinnati.  Detroit, Buffalo, Denver, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay.  Minnesota.  Chicago's been looking 50 years.    

 

It's a fool's game to make your objective a top 5 QB.   The objective is to be competitive this year, or next, or the year after.   If you have a top 10 quarterback, you can compete.    Look at anyone's list of the top 10.   Those look like they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs every year, and that's what you want. 

 

So I think the question is whether Cousins is top 10, not top 5.   Top 10 is a close question.   Once Brady, Ben and Brees retire, Cousins probably is top 10.   

 

If you have a guy who's top 10, then I think Hapless is correct - it doesn't matter how much you pay him.   Obviously, you'd like to pay him as little as possible, but even if he's the 10th best QB and you make him the highest paid QB in the league, it's worth it, because he gives you a shot at the playoffs every year.   The Ravens did it with Flacco, but it turned out they were wrong - he isn't top 10.  Lions did it with Stafford, probably a good move.   Raiders did it with Carr, we'll see.  Colts did it with Luck, and we'll see about that, too.  Falcons did it with Ryan, good move.  Bengals did it with Dalton, probably not such a good move.  

 

The point, however, is not whether the decision turned out to be a good move or not.   It's whether the guy is a good bet to turn out top 10.   If he is a good bet, you make the bet, and it really doesn't matter how many chips you have to put on the table.   If you don't bet on someone, you can't win.   

 

And if you think Cousins is a good bet for the top 10, he's a better bet than an untested rookie, no matter how much contract money you save.   The surest of sure things in the last 10 years, Andrew Luck, doesn't look so much like a top 10 QB, and there are no QBs in the draft with odds anything like Luck coming out of college.  

[HT02]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It depends upon your 8-8 team, right?

 

The Bills were a 9-7 team last year, 9-9 if you count playoffs.  We lost 2 regular season games by 3 and 4 points - one TD wins it for us.

We lost the playoff game by 7 points - 1 TD ties it.

 

I can see 2 more wins there easily with a QB who can mount an effective passing attack, if you disagree, why?  That would put us at 11-5.  If we're able to sustain more drives and keep the D fresh, maybe we get more stops and other games are within reach - the first Jets game, for example.  Now we're 12-4.

 

Now that said, hopefully the Bills have someone picking apart Cousin's game to assess whether or not he's worth it from the details of how he goes through his progressions, handles pressure in the pocket, and the precision of various throws, but in terms of the stats available he actually is in the top 10 and a bunch of the QB commonly listed as "top 10" have not, for the last couple years, been performing at that level - Cam Newton would be one example.

 

On the QB pay, I think we've been cheerfully over-paying for every position BUT QB.  Maybe if we didn't hand out huge contracts to multiple DLmen and to a TE we underutilize 'cuz, QB, we can pay a QB AND build around him.

The whole Bills talent situation has been compounded by 1) feeling that we're "close" so it's smart to bring in high-price FA to get us "over the hump" (Mario Williams, Clay) 2) creating holes for ourselves by constant coaching churn and scheme changes, which has led to shedding talented draftees who are no longer "right" but go on to the playoffs with other teams.  If we stop doing that yeah, we can pay a QB and put a team around him - how is N'Orleans doing it, they had a D this year for sure?  And for that matter, the Eagles have been throwing around QB money, not to 1 QB but to several (Bradford, Chase Daniels, Wentz, Foles - look at the signing bonuses they ate with the first 2)

 

 

It's entirely possible that Cousins could have won a couple of games that Taylor let get away, he is definitely a better QB.  It is also possible he could have also lost at least one Taylor won because he did turn over the football more often. I think you mean the second Jets game, the Bills won the first.  He is no doubt a better QB than Taylor but I don't think he is good enough to eat up that much cap space.

 

I am in complete agreement with you that it all starts with the QB, get a good one and the rest falls into place.  Look at the Colts and Packers without Luck and Rogers.  If that type of QB becomes available open up the vault and pay him whatever it takes.  I would include Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, David Carr and a few others in that group.

 

Cousins career record as a starter is 26 -30-1, his best season was 9-7.  You could certainly make the case that the Redskins have not been great during that period and he'd be much better with a better team around him but that would sound very similar to the people who argue the same about Tyrod.

 

 

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think the objective is a top 5 QB.   I think it's top 10.   If you're objective is top 5, it will take 20 or 30 years to get there.   Dolphins have been looking that long.  Jets.   Redskins, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cincinnati.  Detroit, Buffalo, Denver, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay.  Minnesota.  Chicago's been looking 50 years.    

 

It's a fool's game to make your objective a top 5 QB.   The objective is to be competitive this year, or next, or the year after.   If you have a top 10 quarterback, you can compete.    Look at anyone's list of the top 10.   Those look like they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs every year, and that's what you want. 

 

So I think the question is whether Cousins is top 10, not top 5.   Top 10 is a close question.   Once Brady, Ben and Brees retire, Cousins probably is top 10.   

 

If you have a guy who's top 10, then I think Hapless is correct - it doesn't matter how much you pay him.   Obviously, you'd like to pay him as little as possible, but even if he's the 10th best QB and you make him the highest paid QB in the league, it's worth it, because he gives you a shot at the playoffs every year.   The Ravens did it with Flacco, but it turned out they were wrong - he isn't top 10.  Lions did it with Stafford, probably a good move.   Raiders did it with Carr, we'll see.  Colts did it with Luck, and we'll see about that, too.  Falcons did it with Ryan, good move.  Bengals did it with Dalton, probably not such a good move.  

 

The point, however, is not whether the decision turned out to be a good move or not.   It's whether the guy is a good bet to turn out top 10.   If he is a good bet, you make the bet, and it really doesn't matter how many chips you have to put on the table.   If you don't bet on someone, you can't win.   

 

And if you think Cousins is a good bet for the top 10, he's a better bet than an untested rookie, no matter how much contract money you save.   The surest of sure things in the last 10 years, Andrew Luck, doesn't look so much like a top 10 QB, and there are no QBs in the draft with odds anything like Luck coming out of college.  

I disagree with you about top 5 versus top 10.  A top 10 QB assures that you will have a  team that is a serious play-off contender each year, a top 5 QB almost certainly assures that you have a Super Bowl contender each year.  As far as once Brady, Ben and Brees retire, Cousins probably is top 10, that assumes Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or others aren't better.  I believe in 3 years he still won't be a top 10 guy.

[reddogblitz]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Bills were a 9-7 team last year, 9-9 if you count playoffs

 

9-8