Kiper Mock Draft: Josh Allen #1

[Virgil]

If Baker Mayfield drops that far, I’d be upset if the Bills didn’t trade up to get him. They could keep a first, get Mayfield and still get the DT. I’d consider that a successful draft. 

 

I’d do the chiefs trade, jump to 10 by giving them our first this year and first next year.  

 

We keep the rest of our picks this year and fill a lot of holes. 

 

When we pick 32 next year, we won’t care we traded it away ??

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not a big scouting guy but I like to check out the top QBs coming out every year and from what I've seen of Allen it makes sense IMO. I don't think he's as polished a passer as Wentz was coming out, his body control and pocket presence aren't on the same level, but as far as pure arm talent he's off the charts. The guy has an Elway-like release and the ball just jumps out of his hand...you talk about a 'live arm' and Allen is the photo next to the definition. I could definitely see him going to Cleveland #1, the question in their minds will be whether they feel they have the structure in place to bring his development along, they're pretty young along the O line.

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

[MrEpsYtown]

25 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

 

I think one thing that is changeable on this list is the attitude. Rosen needs an attitude check. Everything else is good. 

 

Those other guys have pretty major flaws and therefore have a better chance to bust. Darnold has a good chance to make it if you let him sit 2 years. Mayfield will never get bigger, Jackson probably can't win from the pocket, Allen needs a lot of work (needs to sit 2-3 years), and Rudolph is slow with a so so arm as well as the footwork issues (To me he's Josh Allen without physical talent). I'm willing to take a shot of Rosen, Darnold, or even Allen round 1. The rest of those guys are a no for me.  I think Mayfield is a borderline first round pick, but Buffalo will not draft him.  

 

So to me its Rosen. Now if Rosen is a Ryan Leaf level douche then he's off the board, but if he's just a spoiled kid I'm good with it. 

[Acantha]

If Rosen or Darnold are available at Indy's pick and we don't give up whatever it takes to get them, we're just not playing at the right level.

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

[MrEpsYtown]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

I think that's a good comp. I think he can be Cam or Jake Locker. I think people need to be willing to put some time in to develop him. Cleveland should take Rosen or Darnold.  

 

Now if I'm Cleveland and I am going to pick Allen, I probably trade down and stick with Kizer. They have similar traits. Kizer is just five months older and has one year in the NFL under his belt. I was really impressed with how he was playing near the end of the season, but that's probably just me. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by MrEpsYtown

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Denver got their wish for an up close look at Mayfield. 

[ndirish1978]

This article is click-bait. He throws out a non-consensus pick now to generate interest in his position and will change his mind and have Rosen in there at #1 before the draft rolls around. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think that's a good comp. I think he can be Cam or Jake Locker. I think people need to be willing to put some time in to develop him. Cleveland should take Rosen or Darnold.  

 

Now if I'm Cleveland and I am going to pick Allen, I probably trade down and stick with Kizer. They have similar traits. Kizer is just five months older and has one year in the NFL under his belt. I was really impressed with how he was playing near the end of the season, but that's probably just me. 

I was high on Kizer and I think he's got a future but I don't know how much patience the Browns will have especially if they really like one of the top guys this year...

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I was high on Kizer and I think he's got a future but I don't know how much patience the Browns will have especially if they really like one of the top guys this year...

 

Agreed and it's unfortunate because to me, they already have Josh Allen on their roster. 

[yungmack]

Kiper is just plain idiotic. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, yungmack said:

Kiper is just plain idiotic. 

 

Jimmy Clausen is going to come back to prove Kiper right. 

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

If we did not do the above I would get a tattoo of the Bills logo on my chest (after I shave) or on my back (after I shave), strip naked and jump off of the top floor of the old Marine Midland Building screaming "what's the frequency, Kenneth?!" all the way down, officially verifying to you all, gentlemen, that this world is most assuredly bonkers and I want no further part of it.

 

...in short, if Darnold is there after the first two picks...get him.

I wonder if that would make Sportcenter?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Jimmy Clausen is going to come back to prove Kiper right. 

 

...LMAO...."paging The Pickle........."..............

[billykay]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Even if they’ve addressed QB I think people will be outraged with CB at 21. This team has holes everywhere except the defensive backfield. They can’t squander the 21st pick of the draft there. It has to be front 7 and/or WR in that case. OL is an option as well if they love someone but think that it falls behind front 7 and WR. 

IMHO, I feel that the current Bill's brain trust will be investing in a seasoned QB. Having said that, they will then be free to attack the front seven as you say. Mc D. seems to like draft capital, so I see some  sliding down on day 2 for future picks.

If for some reason we don't sign a veteran starter at the QB position, then I think that they will entertain a move up in the 1st round. I'm betting on the 1st scenario where we have a QB signed & we devote day one to the front seven. Three out of four of the teams still alive have middle of the pack QB's. They also have four of the best D's in the league.

[MAJBobby]

Allen is going higher than alot of people think (rightfully so). 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Hmm maybe Newton. I honestly don't think Allen has poor 'mechanics', his release looks OK to me. He doesn't have great pocket awareness and footwork a bit of a mess but if the right coach gets hold of him I think he'll be a good one.

 

I think it's fair to say Cam Newton has been the best of that type of QB, and he's only had one season I would consider living up to his draft pick. That was an amazing season but otherwise his career has been plagued with accuracy issues and poor decisions. And every other QB of that type is a who's who of draft busts. I think we have enough evidence that that skill set does not translate from college to the pros.

[jrober38]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Who was the last big arm with poor mechanics and accuracy QB who worked out in the NFL?

 

Only Cam Newton comes to mind, and he is a much better football player than Josh Allen. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by jrober38

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think it's fair to say Cam Newton has been the best of that type of QB, and he's only had one season I would consider living up to his draft pick. That was an amazing season but otherwise his career has been plagued with accuracy issues and poor decisions. And every other QB of that type is a who's who of draft busts. I think we have enough evidence that that skill set does not translate from college to the pros.

Stafford? 

[K D]

1 hour ago, PIZ said:

 

You write like a scout with the "we didn't see...".  Are you a scout or do you (with others?) do this for fun?  Just curious.  Thanks for the write-up.  I wanted to see a trade up for Darnold, but now you have me scared about the strips.

I'm not a scout but I've scouted for high school teams and I watch a lot of tape on QB's because I used to play the position so I at least know what to look for and I have an interest in it.  Josh Rosen checks all of the boxes on what a prototypical NFL QB looks like.  His only problem is what he has upstairs and in his heart.  Tom Brady was very "Peterman-esque" coming out of college but he had what it took to outwork everyone else and he continues to do so almost 2 decades later.  Rosen is the type of guy that is good at everything and his family is already wealthy so who knows if he has the interest or drive to be great at just football.  He might decide he is more interested in policitics or starting his own business and he would probably do really well at those too.

 

Sam Darnold wishes he was Josh Rosen because he wants it more.  He would be a McBeane guy because of his heart and he is still a very good player.  He has some things to work on but he can be a starter in the NFL.  He's not going to go head to head with Tom Brady and throw for 400 yards to keep you in the game but he can be a part of a balanced attack that will rush it down your throat and then convert on 3rd down to move the sticks.  He would have won us the Jags game but he wouldn't be much help vs the Pats.

 

Josh Allen has the type of arm strength that people tell stories about 20 yrs later.  You hear about how Elway could throw it from one endzone to the other and you are like noooo that can't be true.  If Allen ever puts it all together he could be very special.  He hasn't been able to yet and who knows if he ever will.  He's very boom or bust.  Drafting him #1 would be like putting your entire savings into bitcoins and holding on for dear life.

 

And Mayfield wishes he was half the physical athlete of any those guys because I think he would die for this game.  If he doesn't make it I don't think it will be for a lack of effort.  Too bad you can't put him into one of their bodies!  If he puts that same effort into his preparation and becomes a student of the game and stays level headed, he can be a good player.  There's just so much to overcome when you are short and can't see where you are throwing a lot of the time.  You really have to know exactly where the receiver is going to be.  I don't know if he will be able to put it all together so I would be leery of drafting him top 10.  Someone will reach though.

 

Rudolph, who knows!  He looks the part but you would have to get him under center to see if he knows what to do in a pro style offense.  He might be a mess and a long term project or he might be a natural that just needs fine tuning.  He didn't show anything in college to determine it one way or the other.  He does have a good deep ball and he is a big guy.  With proper footwork comes more accuracy underneath too so if he put it together he could be good as well.

 

Jackson is a very good athlete.  He could have a couple of good seasons but I just don't like dual threat QB's at the NFL level.  It's not a model for long term success.  He would be exciting to watch though.  He would actually be the 3rd safest pick because with him you know what you are getting.

 

If I had to pick someone to go #1 overall it would have to be Rosen but there's a chance he won't make it past his rookie deal so I wouldn't trade the farm to move up to get him.  He could be like Jake Locker and have an injury and say screw this my health is more important.  So that makes Darnold the safest pick but I think he projects as a game manager type QB who will need to be on a team with a strong running game.  So toss up between those 2 guys imo.  The other guys are more risky and if there weren't desperate teams out there I don't know if any of them would be 1st round picks.  It would be a toss up of who to take next vs Jackson or Allen.  I'd probably go Allen because if it works out I'm going to look like a genius but I think he needs to sit and learn.  Jackson is more of a sure thing but I would have to change the offense to suit him.  But how I think it will play out is 1) Darnold or Allen 2) Rosen 3) Allen or Darnold 4) Mayfield 5) Jackson 6) Rudolph

Edited January 18, 2018 by kdiggz