Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Chuck Wagon]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

What I know about college football could be written on a dime and lost, but I don't want to see the Bills draft any guy whose completion percentage isn't >60% and trending upward through his college years. 

 

Can anyone educate me about a QB with a completion percentage <60% all 4 years in college who became a successful NFL QB?

 

 

 

Eli finished at 60% for his college career and was under 60% 2 of his 4 years.

 

Vick was at 56%, I'd say he was successful in the NFL.

 

Matt Ryan was under 60% for his college career.

 

Tom Brady was at 61% for his career.

 

[K-9]

14 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

it's a huge bummer that Rudolph won't be participating in the Senior Bowl.  the scouts really needed to see his footwork, if he could take a snap under center, what he could do in a normal offense where you have to work in the pocket and make multiple reads.  also needed to see his arm strength.  he is accurate on the deep throws but i haven't seen too many NFL type throws where he plants it and let's it rip on a 15 yard out to move the chains.  they said his foot isn't healthy enough yet to compete but that seems like a calculated move by his agent to buy him more time to get with a QB guru and get ready for the combine and pro day, both of which are a much more controlled environment than a whole week of coaches poking and prodding you at their will.  if he went to the senior bowl and looked sloppy it would hurt his draft stock.  right now he is seen as a late 1st rounder based solely on his size and success in a stat boosting college offense.

Rudolph is scheduled to attend the Senior Bowl. Did something happen to prevent this?

 

EDIT: just saw the article about his food injury. I agree it’s a lost opportunity for him. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by K-9

[Kirby Jackson]

35 minutes ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

Doesn't mean anything at the next level. Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, all had better college careers than Brady, Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees so what does that mean?

 

 

Not than Brees, he had all kinds of Big 10 records. 

[K D]

I think Mayfield will have a good week and solidify his spot as a 1st rounder.  he is competitive and he will go out of his way to beat out the other QB's there.  i think he will be the hardest worker and the coaches will like his fire up close and in person.  the senior bowl is a great place for someone like him.  he will be the first taken after the Rosen, Darnold, Allen group

[Kirby Jackson]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just wanting to interject that it would actually be a relatively rare scenario to have 4 QB drafted in the 1st round before round 21. 

 

It has happened 2x in the last 2 decades, and the results each time discouraged the following years QB Draft Inflation

 

2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder all gone by pick 12

1999: Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper and Cade McNown all gone by pick 12

 

In those years, it's not as though there were a gem later on, either - unless you count Kaepernick

The difference is that there are at least 4 QBs in the top 15 overall players in this class. QBs also get pushed up the board (like Ponder did). This year is an exception. We aren’t talking about player 35 going at 12. We are talking about player 12 going at 8. It’s apples and oranges.

[K D]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Rudolph is scheduled to attend the Senior Bowl. Did something happen to prevent this?

they said he had a boo boo on his foot and it wasn't healed yet.  they said he will be healed up in a couple of weeks but not quick enough to participate in the senior bowl.  i think what really happened was he got with a QB coach and they said he needs a lot of work before we show him off to the scouts and they used his foot as an excuse to hold him out.  it's a great story: "he really wants to play but the doctors said he should rest!"  if you go to a doctor they will always tell you to rest so that's an easy out

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Rudolph is scheduled to attend the Senior Bowl. Did something happen to prevent this?

Injury

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

Eli finished at 60% for his college career and was under 60% 2 of his 4 years.

 

Vick was at 56%, I'd say he was successful in the NFL.

 

Matt Ryan was under 60% for his college career.

 

Tom Brady was at 61% for his career.

 

 

I'm less concerned about the average over 3 or 4 years (changing receiver corps can impact that) than with achieving >60% during the entire college career, especially if the bad year is the first.  Sorry to be not clear.    Matt Ryan 62.1, 61.6, 59.3.  I want to know why it dropped off his Sr year but at least he showed he could do it.

 

So everyone you mention but Vick passed that >60% eyeball test.

 

Mike Vick.  Inarguable that he had some success in the NFL. 

 

Answer me this, if the Bills had drafted Vick, would you have regarded that as successful acquisition of a Franchise QB?  Look at his team's offensive performance.  2001-2006.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The difference is that there are at least 4 QBs in the top 15 overall players in this class. QBs also get pushed up the board (like Ponder did). This year is an exception. We aren’t talking about player 35 going at 12. We are talking about player 12 going at 8. It’s apples and oranges.

 

Can you educate me, Kirby?  Top 4 QB in the top 15 players per whom?  I'm not a college football maven at all.  I see Mizzou sometimes, that's it.

 

It seems to me there are a huge number of teams needing QB this year, and that influences the projections.  

 

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm less concerned about the average over 3 or 4 years (changing receiver corps can impact that) than with achieving >60% during the entire college career, especially if the bad year is the first.  Sorry to be not clear.    Matt Ryan 62.1, 61.6, 59.3.  I want to know why it dropped off his Sr year but at least he showed he could do it.

 

So everyone you mention but Vick passed that >60% eyeball test.

 

Mike Vick.  Inarguable that he had some success in the NFL. 

 

Answer me this, if the Bills had drafted Vick, would you have regarded that as successful acquisition of a Franchise QB?  Look at his team's offensive performance.  2001-2006.

 

 

 

Can you educate me, Kirby?  Top 4 QB in the top 15 players per whom?  I'm not a college football maven at all.  I see Mizzou sometimes, that's it.

 

It seems to me there are a huge number of teams needing QB this year, and that influences the projections.  9

 

 

A variety of the big boards from draft analysts have the QBs at or near the top. QBs ALWAYS get pushed up the board and there are a lot of QB needy teams. So while a guy like Trubisky may have been the 10th overall player a team traded to 2 to get him. This year Rosen and Darnold might be players 1 & 2 while guys like Allen and Mayfield (and even Rudolph & Jackson) are considered amongst the best overall players. 

 

The 12th best player might go anywhere from like 8th to 20th if they are a OT or DB in a particular draft. If the 12th best player is a QB he is going top 5. Teams will trade up if need be. This year happens to be an anomaly in that a case could easily be made that 6 QBs are amongst the 32 best overall players. By comparison CJ Beathard was the 6th QB taken last year and many thought he wouldn’t get drafted.

[Chuck Wagon]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not than Brees, he had all kinds of Big 10 records. 

 

Big Ben was awesome in college as well.  Easily better than Russell.

[BuffaloHokie13]

There are 2 guys in the draft that check all of the classic Parcells boxes: Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield. One other meets them in spirit, in my opinion, in Riley Ferguson. Doesn't meet the starts because the coach that recruited him left and he had transfer complications.

[K D]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Can you educate me, Kirby?  Top 4 QB in the top 15 players per whom?  I'm not a college football maven at all.  I see Mizzou sometimes, that's it.

 

It seems to me there are a huge number of teams needing QB this year, and that influences the projections.  9

 

 

Rosen is the best pocket passer since Andrew Luck.  he is a real deal #1 pick but his white priviledge attitude rubs people the wrong way.  Darnold is also a top 15 player in this draft but has some things to work on.  Allen some would argue is a #1 type prospect just based on his rare size and arm strength.  the best arm since JeMarcuss Russel, but it takes more than a big arm to be a QB imo.  I'd put those 3 at the top.  Mayfield obviously had a great college career but if Drew Brees and Russel Wilson don't exist I don't think anyone is talking about him as a top 15 pick.  Guys like him were always typically day 2 picks.  he can be successful, it's just more of a risk than what you typically see out of top 10 players chosen.  if you are picking him that high then you are saying this is my franchise QB for the next 10 yrs.  his size is a real concern.  Drew Brees was a 2nd rounder as a result.  Russel Wilson was a 3rd rounder.  Jackson and Rudolph are day 2 type projects that will get pushed high into the 1st round because they are QB's and teams are desperate.  both may be gone before we pick.  so 6 QB's taken before we even pick is very possible!  i'd only say 3 are worth the picks though, but that's how it goes with QB's!

[H2o]

If it's between the two then I take Rudolph over Jackson. When it comes to playing the QB position itself Rudolph is the better QB. Jackson is clearly the better athlete, but we are drafting a guy to take snaps, make reads,, and throw the football. 

[starrymessenger]

Just a guess and one fan's opinion but I strongly suspect that Jackson has Beane's attention in a big way as well as that of evaluators from other teams. The two best prospects for playing the position at the next level are Jackson and Rosen. If you want a traditional pocket passer who can make all the throws with accuracy and touch and who is ready to stand in behind a good offensive line and play at a high level Rosen is your guy. But he is limited inasmuch as he is pretty much unable to operate outside the pocket either as a runner or a passer at the next level.

Jackson is not a Tyrod clone. He was fully in command of Petrino's complicated pro style offence. He can read a defence and go through his progressions. Tyrod could never do that. He is exactly the same guy today as he was at Tech. Jackson can execute from the pocket. Except for designed runs he stands in very well and can see the field. He bails only when he has to and when he does he keeps his eyes downfield and squares his shoulders before firing. Unless Beane feels that Jackson can develop as a pocket passer he won't consider him, but in my view it's pretty clear that Jackson can do that. The last thing that anybody wants, especially in Bills land is a guy who is really just a running college variety spread QB who cannot see the field and bails early. That is not Jackson IMO. 

There is a problem that affects Jackson's accuracy and that causes his ball occasionally to sail high. He pushes off his front foot rather than transferring his weight properly after pushing off his back foot. He absolutely needs to correct that. Not making excuses for him but lots of good prospects taken high in the draft have mechanical glitches in their throwing mechanics that need work - Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold. In fact Darnold's issues are much more serious and difficult to correct. He has a big windmill arm motion where the ball drops to hip level before coming back up - the exact opposite of a compact delivery. It's led to many turnovers in college, so imagine what will likely happen in the pros unless he corrects that. And that's a lot harder to correct than Jackson's weight transfer problem. 

To me Jackson is the top QB prospect in this class all things considered, followed by Mayfield. At 6'3" and circa 215 he needs to pack on another 15 lbs to fill out his frame, especially if he's going to make plays with his feet, but he got thicker in his body just last year so he is still developing that way and it shouldn't be a problem for him. In Carolina Beane was part of the team that drafted Cam, who was the most talented QB in that draft. Jackson is the most talented QB in this class IMO. There were lots of questions concerning his ability to transition from a run heavy Auburn O to a pro offence where he would first and foremost have to execute from the pocket. The concerns were legit. He did poorly in passing drills at the Combine. But the braintrust had confidence that he could get there. I think Beane may well come to the same conclusion regarding Jackson. If I'm right about that you can bet Jackson is on Beane's radar and very prominently so.

If I were the Browns I would consider making him the first overall pick and then going Barkely at # 4. Two generational athletes. I'd actually be happy for long suffering Browns fans. I just don't want him to go to the Jets, who are definitely drafting a QB (unless they sign Cousins).

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

What I know about college football could be written on a dime and lost, but I don't want to see the Bills draft any guy whose completion percentage isn't >60% and trending upward through his college years. 

 

Can anyone educate me about a QB with a completion percentage <60% all 4 years in college who became a successful NFL QB?

 

 

Just heard them talking about that on the Billswire podcast in regards to Josh Allen. The number is staggeringly low.

 

If you aren't accurate in college, you aren't going to be accurate in the pros.

[BuffaloHokie13]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Can you educate me, Kirby?  Top 4 QB in the top 15 players per whom?  I'm not a college football maven at all.  I see Mizzou sometimes, that's it.

 

It seems to me there are a huge number of teams needing QB this year, and that influences the projections.  

Not necessarily all in the top 15, but:
Matt Miller has Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield all in the top 13 of his big board (not mock, just big board. so not projecting them up)

Mel Kiper has Allen, Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield all in the top 13 of his big board

Draftek has Rosen, Rudolph, Jackson, and Darnold in their top 21

USA Today has Rosen, Jackson, Mayfield, and Darnold in their top 20

CBS has Rudolph, Jackson, Rosen, and Darnold in their top 21

Walter Football has Rosen, Jackson, Darnold, and Allen in his top 32

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A variety of the big boards from draft analysts have the QBs at or near the top. QBs ALWAYS get pushed up the board and there are a lot of QB needy teams. So while a guy like Trubisky may have been the 10th overall player a team traded to 2 to get him. This year Rosen and Darnold might be players 1 & 2 while guys like Allen and Mayfield (and even Rudolph & Jackson) are considered amongst the best overall players. 

 

The 12th best player might go anywhere from like 8th to 20th if they are a OT or DB in a particular draft. If the 12th best player is a QB he is going top 5. Teams will trade up if need be. This year happens to be an anomaly in that a case could easily be made that 6 QBs are amongst the 32 best overall players. By comparison CJ Beathard was the 6th QB taken last year and many thought he wouldn’t get drafted.

 

Fair enough, can you point out a few of those boards with the 4 QB in the top 15?

 

I'm not asking to be difficult, I really don't follow college football - at all.

CBS has the first QB, Rudolph, at #10; Jackson at #12, and Rosen and Darnold out of the top 15.

Draftwire has the first QB, Rosen, at #6, Jackson at #7, and Mayfield and Darnold out of the top 15 - Rudolph in the 2nd round.

9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Not necessarily all in the top 15, but:
Matt Miller has Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield all in the top 13 of his big board (not mock, just big board. so not projecting them up)

Mel Kiper has Allen, Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield all in the top 13 of his big board

Draftek has Rosen, Rudolph, Jackson, and Darnold in their top 21

USA Today has Rosen, Jackson, Mayfield, and Darnold in their top 20

CBS has Rudolph, Jackson, Rosen, and Darnold in their top 21

Walter Football has Rosen, Jackson, Darnold, and Allen in his top 32

 

Understood difference between "Big Board" and "Mock" for CBS?

 

How did this compare in previous years, any gouge?

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

If we aren't going after Darnold or Rosen, I pass on the rest of these QBs and trade out of the 21st or 22nd pick for a 2019 1st rounder in hopes that it ends up being in the top half of the 1st round next year and give me more picks to get up and get a top QB next year.  Beane and McD will not waste picks on guys they don't trust to be here for a LONG time.  McD knows what positions he values most and needs to be the foundation of his team, and knows the positions he can scheme to minimize their weaknesses.  McD will get a top QB and they have a plan to do it... I trust Beane and McD.  I strongly believe that IF we are going to have a rookie QB wearing a Bills jersey next season that it will be Rosen or Darnold... But also see a strong possibility that we get Cousins or Smith in FA allowing us to draft other needs instead.

[chris heff]

I voted Jackson because I watched him play, I’ve never see Rudolph play and I know that is a bad reason. I’m going to defer to the brain trust at OBD, because what else can I do. I think having two first round picks allows them to gamble. I would absolutely use one of those picks on a QB.

 

Why are pocket passing and running ability mutually exclusive? 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Insightful.  At least you didn't say "He's just like Tyrod".

He's just like Tyrod.