QB Film Room: Baker Mayfield

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, CritMark said:

Great write up on Mayfield.  I hope you don't mind if I comment with some of your conclusions.  In your negatives you listed three things I disagree with.  Actually two I disagree with and one I don't think is as important at you may.

 

-Inconsistent field vision - watch the tape and you will see his eyes are always down field.  Even when he scrambles his eyes are up.  He is certainly guilty of bypassing shorter route for down field plays but when you lead the nation in accuracy on long passes it's kinda hard to ding him too hard for that.

 

-Needs work under center  - Absolutely accurate...but, while I am looking for 2017 stats, here are some interesting numbers on 2016. According to Tru Media Networks ( a company chaired by Tony Kahn, Jag's owners son), 78.9% of passing plays started in shotgun.  When talking about Tom Brady's injury it was mentioned that he operates out of the gun over 70% of the time.  Does Mayfield need more experience under center yes, but the NFL is changing.

 

-Didn't play many top defenses  - this one drives me crazy because people have just adopted the narrative as true without actually looking at the numbers.  Please forgive the length of this reply but I am a numbers geek.

 

I did an analysis on the six games for each QB against the highest ranked defensive teams faced. So here is the data. Each teams defense ranking is in (##)

Sam Darnold: Record 4-2: W vs Stanford (35), W vs Texas (30), W vs Utah (39), L vs ND (31), W vs Stanford (35) L vs Ohio St (16). Average defense team ranking 31.
Josh Rosen: Record 3 - 3. L vs Stanford (35), W vs Colorado (75), W vs Oregon (82), L vs Washington (5), L vs USC (60), W vs Cal (80). Average defense team ranking 56.
Baker Mayfield: Record 4 - 2. W vs Ohio State (16), W vs TCU (15), W vs Texas (30), L vs Iowa State (27), W vs TCU (15), L vs Georgia (6). Average defense team ranking 19.

So Mayfield faced the stiffest defenses in their toughest six games, he and Darnold had the same W/L record and Rosen faced the easiest competition and fared worse in W/L. Every one of the six Mayfield faced were ranked in the top 30 defensively, Darnold had 2, Rosen had only 1 with three others ranked 75 or worse!

That's the team numbers. How did the QBs perform?

Darnold 62.6 Completions. 14 TD/6 INT (2.33 td/int ratio), 330 YPG, 152.97 rating
Rosen 62.9 Completions. 12 TD/4 INT (3.00 td/int ratio), 306 YPG, 142.95 rating
Mayfield 68.9 Completions. 16 TD/2 INT (8.00 td/int ratio), 310 YPG, 180.92 rating

So what does this tell us? Far superior numbers by Mayfield against tougher competition that either other 2 QBs.

I am not saying Mayfield is a sure fire NFL star. What I am saying is given the body of work for each of these three, there is no reason to believe he is far, if at all, behind the other two as a NFL prospect.

 

If I had to take one of the top three, I take Mayfield every time.  BTW - I did not include Josh Allen in this analysis given his awful completion % in a small conference and his 0-3 record against Power Five teams with 0 TDs and 8 INTs.  He is not the same conversation for me.

 

 

Good job and I will touch on your comments...

 

Inconsistent field vision- I was not talking about his ability to keep his eyes up when moving around. He's good at that..I was more touching on his ability to Read and scan the field and defenses post snap( he can struggle with disguised coverages )... which is not bad by any means.... but inconsistent

 

needs work under center- I understand that the NFL goes shotgun a lot... but it has for 20 years... baker still needs to work on his 3 step drop and footwork under center  which can get sloppy ... just needs work

 

good job breaking down the defenses but next time go through the whole year or his career and you'll see why I said it...

 

you Can only play who you schedule so I cannot knock OU that much and they did play some good defense in TCU, Georgia , OSU, Texas... but they did not play an SEC type schedule which would've been a great test for baker. The average defense they played was 62 in the nation. That's after getting 15th ranked defense TCU twice. 6th ranked Georgia, and 16th ranked OSU... they played a lot of teams ranked 70-80-90-100 in defense

 

again you need to have negatives on every guy no matter how big or small. It would've been nice to see him in an SEC type schedule because the Big12 was too easy for him 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Buffalo716

[CritMark]

Buffalo716 I agree you can only play the defenses  on the schedule but here is my big issue.  I hear that comment a lot about the defenses he faced and how bad the Big 12 is.  However, for 2017 at least, they ranked ahead of the Pac 12, which had several teams fall out of the top 100.  However, you never hear any such comment about Rosen or Darnold.  Add to that of the three, Mayfield started as the better statistical QB and got better.  Not something you can say about the two Pac 12 QBs. 

 

I selected those to see how each QB performed against the best talent they faced.   Both Mayfield and Darnold beat up on everyone else not included in their top 6 defenses faced.  Rosen not so much, losing to Arizona who ranked outside the top 100 defensively where Rosen threw 0 TDs and 3 INTs. 

 

Bottom line is, if you accept that a top NFL prospect should beat bad teams, Mayfield out performed Rosen & Darnold against good teams, and the numbers are not even close.

 

And let's throw this in for good measure, if you go back and look at the preseason comments about OU, you will frequently see the question,  where are the skill players going to come from.  Mayfield lost 82% of his receiving production and 64% of his rushing production to the NFL before this past season.  It's real easy to say at the end of the season how great the talent was around him, but at the beginning of the season nobody was saying that.  The one constant at OU was Mayfield.  Maybe, just maybe, he does a pretty good job of making the other players around him better. 

 

Finally, the top of the SEC was good, as always.  Much of the SEC was barely pedestrian.  Historically I would agree they represent a tougher schedule, but not this year.  Just look at Alabama's opponents during the regular season.

Edited January 25, 2018 by CritMark

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, CritMark said:

Buffalo716 I agree you can only play the defenses  on the schedule but here is my big issue.  I hear that comment a lot about the defenses he faced and how bad the Big 12 is.  However, for 2017 at least, they ranked ahead of the Pac 12, which had several teams fall out of the top 100.  However, you never hear any such comment about Rosen or Darnold.  Add to that of the three, Mayfield started as the better statistical QB and got better.  Not something you can say about the two Pac 12 QBs. 

 

I selected those to see how each QB performed against the best talent they faced.   Both Mayfield and Darnold beat up on everyone else not included in their top 6 defenses faced.  Rosen not so much, losing to Arizona who ranked outside the top 100 defensively where Rosen threw 0 TDs and 3 INTs. 

 

Bottom line is, if you accept that a top NFL prospect should beat bad teams, Mayfield out performed Rosen & Darnold against good teams, and the numbers are not even close.

 

And let's throw this in for good measure, if you go back and look at the preseason comments about OU, you will frequently see the question,  where are the skill players going to come from.  Mayfield lost 82% of his receiving production and 64% of his rushing production to the NFL before this past season.  It's real easy to say at the end of the season how great the talent was around him, but at the beginning of the season nobody was saying that.  The one constant at OU was Mayfield.  Maybe, just maybe, he does a pretty good job of making the other players around him better. 

 

Finally, the top of the SEC was good, as always.  Much of the SEC was barely pedestrian.  Historically I would agree they represent a tougher schedule, but not this year.  Just look at Alabama's opponents during the regular season.

 

Oh I agree... Bama certainly had a weak schedule for there pedigree... but their average opponents defense was stilll 48...

 

im just saying if he had a typical SEC schedule it be a great test

 

You also did a great job breaking down the stats of Baker, Darnold, and Rosen vs good competition... but Baker is well older than both , plays in a much more high powered offense and has better players around him 

 

again cant really knock Baker much for who he plays with but I certainly thought OU was a playoff team in the beginning of the year. They are loaded with 4* and 5*s

 

But UCLA is a hot mess... they are bad. Rosens #s are actually incredible for what he has to work with 

 

Darnold has a better team as USC but still not OU caliber... He has great promise but He needs to get better with ball protection though 

 

I don't think you hear much talk about the Caliber of defenses that Rosen or Darnold play because I think it's a given as well that they aren't that good. They don't play many high powered defenses and I really don't like Pac12 ball. Not that they don't produce good players, just don't like the style

 

but Rosen and Darnold play in pro styled offenses so people give them passes 

27 minutes ago, CritMark said:

Buffalo716 I agree you can only play the defenses  on the schedule but here is my big issue.  I hear that comment a lot about the defenses he faced and how bad the Big 12 is.  However, for 2017 at least, they ranked ahead of the Pac 12, which had several teams fall out of the top 100.  However, you never hear any such comment about Rosen or Darnold.  Add to that of the three, Mayfield started as the better statistical QB and got better.  Not something you can say about the two Pac 12 QBs. 

 

I selected those to see how each QB performed against the best talent they faced.   Both Mayfield and Darnold beat up on everyone else not included in their top 6 defenses faced.  Rosen not so much, losing to Arizona who ranked outside the top 100 defensively where Rosen threw 0 TDs and 3 INTs. 

 

Bottom line is, if you accept that a top NFL prospect should beat bad teams, Mayfield out performed Rosen & Darnold against good teams, and the numbers are not even close.

 

And let's throw this in for good measure, if you go back and look at the preseason comments about OU, you will frequently see the question,  where are the skill players going to come from.  Mayfield lost 82% of his receiving production and 64% of his rushing production to the NFL before this past season.  It's real easy to say at the end of the season how great the talent was around him, but at the beginning of the season nobody was saying that.  The one constant at OU was Mayfield.  Maybe, just maybe, he does a pretty good job of making the other players around him better. 

 

Finally, the top of the SEC was good, as always.  Much of the SEC was barely pedestrian.  Historically I would agree they represent a tougher schedule, but not this year.  Just look at Alabama's opponents during the regular season.

 

Baker is on ESPN right now doing drills...

 

Polian just called him the twitchiest QB since Mike Vick and McNair but more accurate passers

 

and id agree... he certainly snaps it out quick and beautiful 

[ghostwriter]

I'm officially off the Rudolph bandwagon and I am onto the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. He is over 6', big hands, stocky frame that can take a hit. My main concerns with Mayfield before was height, 6' is tall enough.

[CritMark]

41 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Oh I agree... Bama certainly had a weak schedule for there pedigree... but their average opponents defense was stilll 48...

 

im just saying if he had a typical SEC schedule it be a great test

 

You also did a great job breaking down the stats of Baker, Darnold, and Rosen vs good competition... but Baker is well older than both , plays in a much more high powered offense and has better players around him 

 

again cant really knock Baker much for who he plays with but I certainly thought OU was a playoff team in the beginning of the year. They are loaded with 4* and 5*s

 

But UCLA is a hot mess... they are bad. Rosens #s are actually incredible for what he has to work with 

 

Darnold has a better team as USC but still not OU caliber... He has great promise but He needs to get better with ball protection though 

 

I don't think you hear much talk about the Caliber of defenses that Rosen or Darnold play because I think it's a given as well that they aren't that good. They don't play many high powered defenses and I really don't like Pac12 ball. Not that they don't produce good players, just don't like the style

 

but Rosen and Darnold play in pro styled offenses so people give them passes 

 

Baker is on ESPN right now doing drills...

 

Polian just called him the twitchiest QB since Mike Vick and McNair but more accurate passers

 

and id agree... he certainly snaps it out quick and beautiful 

 

Sorry but again, I have to disagree that OU had the better talent.  I think we can agree that all of the talent on the teams were from the recruiting classes of 2014 through 2017.  The exception would be a red-shirt senior from 2013.  So I went back and looked up the recruiting class rankings for the past four years.  Here are the numbers;

 

 

USC had far and away the best recruiting classes in aggregate.  Three of the four years they had the best of the three schools and two of those years USC was ranked in the top four.  A deeper dive would say that you should really focus on 2015 & 2016 since there are not a lot of true freshmen who play at these three schools and the best talent doen't stay until their senior year and opt for the NFL.  In those two key years, USC rocks with top talent, and UCLA ranked better than OU both years.  This would seem to indicate that USC and not OU had the best talent, and UCLA was on par with OU. 

 

I will say it again, by any objective measure, Mayfield should be considered the best Qb in the class.

 

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, CritMark said:

 

Sorry but again, I have to disagree that OU had the better talent.  I think we can agree that all of the talent on the teams were from the recruiting classes of 2014 through 2017.  The exception would be a red-shirt senior from 2013.  So I went back and looked up the recruiting class rankings for the past four years.  Here are the numbers;

 

 

USC had far and away the best recruiting classes in aggregate.  Three of the four years they had the best of the three schools and two of those years USC was ranked in the top four.  A deeper dive would say that you should really focus on 2015 & 2016 since there are not a lot of true freshmen who play at these three schools and the best talent doen't stay until their senior year and opt for the NFL.  In those two key years, USC rocks with top talent, and UCLA ranked better than OU both years.  This would seem to indicate that USC and not OU had the best talent, and UCLA was on par with OU. 

 

I will say it again, by any objective measure, Mayfield should be considered the best Qb in the class.

 

 

Recruitlng classes can be misleading buddy.

 

USC has top ten recruit nearly yearly and they have been a mess for a while. Just getting back on track now..Same with UCLAs recruiting numbers 

 

OU does develop talent better than both those schools since 09 when Carroll left

 

none of these schools are slouches really but OU is a legit top 10 program yearly... USC is not anymore although they are on the right track and neither is UCLA. 

 

I would politely disagree that USC has more talent... on paper their recruting classes are good but they don't develop it like OU right now 

 

Baker is awesome. I think he's great. I think you are focusing too much on the negatives 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Buffalo716

[CritMark]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Recruitlng classes can be misleading buddy.

 

USC has top ten recruit nearly yearly and they have been a mess for a while. Just getting back on track now..Same with UCLAs recruiting numbers 

 

OU does develop talent better than both those schools since 09 when Carroll left

 

none of these schools are slouches really but OU is a legit top 10 program yearly... USC is not anymore although they are on the right track and neither is UCLA. 

 

I would politely disagree that USC has more talent... on paper their recruting classes are good but they don't develop it like OU right now 

 

Baker is awesome. I think he's great. I think you are focusing too much on the negatives 

 Forgive me if it seems like I am focusing on the negatives.  As a numbers guy I like to look at stats and try to find ones from credible sources that say something meaningful.  As a result, I bristle when people make statements that aren't supported by fact. 

 

While I agree that it 'feels' like OU does a better job at developing talent, the only objective measure I have is recruiting class.  It's also a slippery slope to excuse away what the stats and the tape, and say there is no good measure so I will go with what I feel.  Why rank recruiting classes then.  Instead let's measure over time the ranking of a player entering a program and leaving a program over multiple years and all players.  That would combine with the recruiting class going in to see what is the player and what is the program.

 

FYI - when I say "I" a I am not talking about you or anyone else specifically, I'm talking conceptually.

 

It 'feels' like the Big 12 doesn't play any defense but statistically the Pac 12 is worse, yet Mayfield gets dinged for it and the other top prospects get a pass.

 

It 'feels' like OU has much better talent, yet recruiting stats don't support that.  Mayfield's performance gets discounted by some measure instead of getting praise for whatever contribution to the elevation of play those around him enjoy that the Qb might be responsible for.  Darnold who had much better talent recruited around him gets excused away as they don't develop talent.

 

It 'feels' like he is a gunslinger which by insinuation is he takes too many chances and is reckless with the ball.  Yet any of the top QBs can only dream of his completion % and TD/INT ratio, even against top defenses.

 

I'm glad you like Mayfield, I do too.  And I will repeat, I am not saying he is a sure fire NFL star.  What I am saying is to all evaluators out there, stop with the excuses, look at the numbers, look at the tape (film tape not measuring tape) and see the things that matter. 

 

OK, stepping down from my soap box now.

[Buffalo716]

23 minutes ago, CritMark said:

 Forgive me if it seems like I am focusing on the negatives.  As a numbers guy I like to look at stats and try to find ones from credible sources that say something meaningful.  As a result, I bristle when people make statements that aren't supported by fact. 

 

While I agree that it 'feels' like OU does a better job at developing talent, the only objective measure I have is recruiting class.  It's also a slippery slope to excuse away what the stats and the tape, and say there is no good measure so I will go with what I feel.  Why rank recruiting classes then.  Instead let's measure over time the ranking of a player entering a program and leaving a program over multiple years and all players.  That would combine with the recruiting class going in to see what is the player and what is the program.

 

FYI - when I say "I" a I am not talking about you or anyone else specifically, I'm talking conceptually.

 

It 'feels' like the Big 12 doesn't play any defense but statistically the Pac 12 is worse, yet Mayfield gets dinged for it and the other top prospects get a pass.

 

It 'feels' like OU has much better talent, yet recruiting stats don't support that.  Mayfield's performance gets discounted by some measure instead of getting praise for whatever contribution to the elevation of play those around him enjoy that the Qb might be responsible for.  Darnold who had much better talent recruited around him gets excused away as they don't develop talent.

 

It 'feels' like he is a gunslinger which by insinuation is he takes too many chances and is reckless with the ball.  Yet any of the top QBs can only dream of his completion % and TD/INT ratio, even against top defenses.

 

I'm glad you like Mayfield, I do too.  And I will repeat, I am not saying he is a sure fire NFL star.  What I am saying is to all evaluators out there, stop with the excuses, look at the numbers, look at the tape (film tape not measuring tape) and see the things that matter. 

 

OK, stepping down from my soap box now.

 

I have watched every single throw in his career.

 

i never said once that the Pac12 plays better defense than the Big12.

 

and as for recriting classes, they are a great ranking of HS talent as a freshmen usually ... once they get on campus it is a completely different game and every kid can and does develop differently 

 

USC is up and down since Carroll left  and UCLA is usually pretty bad... 

 

OU is a powerhouse. They have the best win % since WW2.They do a tremendous job of developing kids and I think their record and amount of big 12 championships prove that 

 

i love stats... but you also need to project to the NFL

 

Jonny Manziel was also the most accurate QB in the country from the pocket and it didn't project 

 

Not saying he's Jonny at all, but I'm saying that Jonny was also very accurate 

 

 

Did you see all the Positives I listed? I literally said advanced levels of touch... I haven't said that since Drew Brees and Matt Ryan , also Luck but you get the point..

 

I don't even think it's close with the positives / negatives and I have said in this thread on a different day how hard it is to find true flaws in his game

Edited January 25, 2018 by Buffalo716

[CritMark]

Buffalo716 I don't think we are far apart in our sentiments here.  But let's be clear on what we are both saying.

 

I never accused you of saying the Pac 12 had a better defense.  What I was commenting on was the criticism directed at Mayfield that he plays in a conference that doesn't play defense when Rosen & Darnold get no such criticism when they play in a statistically worse conference and when facing their toughest defenses, Mayfield played demonstrably better.

 

Of course recruiting rankings are HS and the trick is how they perform in college.  The draft is exactly the same thing except college to the pros.  If it was a science we would have nothing to debate about.  Then what would we be doing today?

 

As for Manziel, he did have a very good completion %.  Mayfield's was better, but I will be happy to concede a push here.  That said, Manziel's rating was over 40 points lower than Mayfield's in one year and 26 points lower his second compared to Mayfield's last two years.  I used that because that is the guy you are getting in each case.  Also, his TD/INT ratio is nowhere near as good as Mayfield's.

 

I thought the positives were spot on and I think Drew Brees is a good comp for Mayfield.  I hope he can be that good in the pros. 

 

Be well my friend.

[Buffalo716]

20 minutes ago, CritMark said:

Buffalo716 I don't think we are far apart in our sentiments here.  But let's be clear on what we are both saying.

 

I never accused you of saying the Pac 12 had a better defense.  What I was commenting on was the criticism directed at Mayfield that he plays in a conference that doesn't play defense when Rosen & Darnold get no such criticism when they play in a statistically worse conference and when facing their toughest defenses, Mayfield played demonstrably better.

 

Of course recruiting rankings are HS and the trick is how they perform in college.  The draft is exactly the same thing except college to the pros.  If it was a science we would have nothing to debate about.  Then what would we be doing today?

 

As for Manziel, he did have a very good completion %.  Mayfield's was better, but I will be happy to concede a push here.  That said, Manziel's rating was over 40 points lower than Mayfield's in one year and 26 points lower his second compared to Mayfield's last two years.  I used that because that is the guy you are getting in each case.  Also, his TD/INT ratio is nowhere near as good as Mayfield's.

 

I thought the positives were spot on and I think Drew Brees is a good comp for Mayfield.  I hope he can be that good in the pros. 

 

Be well my friend.

 

I certainly think he is a better prospect than Manziel. I was just saying how completion % isn't end all be all... EJs was very good in college as well.

 

Baker is very refined in what he does. If he was 6'4 it wouldn't be a question that he would probably be a top 3 pick if not the #1 pick

 

Baker will get finely critiqued because of the offense he plays in... a lot of people give Darnold and Rosen a pass for some things

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Good job and I will touch on your comments...

 

Inconsistent field vision- I was not talking about his ability to keep his eyes up when moving around. He's good at that..I was more touching on his ability to Read and scan the field and defenses post snap( he can struggle with disguised coverages )... which is not bad by any means.... but inconsistent

 

needs work under center- I understand that the NFL goes shotgun a lot... but it has for 20 years... baker still needs to work on his 3 step drop and footwork under center  which can get sloppy ... just needs work

 

good job breaking down the defenses but next time go through the whole year or his career and you'll see why I said it...

 

you Can only play who you schedule so I cannot knock OU that much and they did play some good defense in TCU, Georgia , OSU, Texas... but they did not play an SEC type schedule which would've been a great test for baker. The average defense they played was 62 in the nation. That's after getting 15th ranked defense TCU twice. 6th ranked Georgia, and 16th ranked OSU... they played a lot of teams ranked 70-80-90-100 in defense

 

again you need to have negatives on every guy no matter how big or small. It would've been nice to see him in an SEC type schedule because the Big12 was too easy for him 

....from what I'm reading bud, he won't be there when Bflo selects at 21/22.....with that being said, I just don't see this gang surrendering major draft capital to move up into let's say the top 10 to chase Mayfield (OR perhaps even higher).....what do you think and what would be the alternative pick?.............

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....from what I'm reading bud, he won't be there when Bflo selects at 21/22.....with that being said, I just don't see this gang surrendering major draft capital to move up into let's say the top 10 to chase Mayfield (OR perhaps even higher).....what do you think and what would be the alternative pick?.............

 

The Bills can go a lot of ways at 21-22...

 

if they have an established vet on the roster they can go OL or Dline or maybe Smith, the linebacker from Georgia.

 

they can always pick at 21 and trade 22 away or vice versa and pick up an extra second and third or something 

 

I think At the end of the day if they can't have any of the top 3 I think they would love to have Rudolph in the second but who knows if he'll be there...

 

i mean from a team that reached on EJ Manuel at 16 and Missed on the great JP Losman in the 20s maybe they will finally get that mid/late first round QB correct the third time 

[CritMark]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I certainly think he is a better prospect than Manziel. I was just saying how completion % isn't end all be all... EJs was very good in college as well.

 

Baker is very refined in what he does. If he was 6'4 it wouldn't be a question that he would probably be a top 3 pick if not the #1 pick

 

Baker will get finely critiqued because of the offense he plays in... a lot of people give Darnold and Rosen a pass for some things

 

If he was 6'4" he would be the unquestioned #1 pick IMO. 

 

I agree that completion % is not the exclusive measure.  That's why I like to include rating, TD/INT ratios, performance vs better defenses and not lousy defenses, progress/regression year-to-year, etc.  In addition to looking at total completion %, I also like to look at completion % vs a blitz and % when under pressure (Pro Footbal Focus keeps these stats).  Each is a piece to a puzzle.

 

When I look at all the pieces of the QB puzzle, none of them are perfect, but the clearest picture is Mayfield's.

[CritMark]

16 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....from what I'm reading bud, he won't be there when Bflo selects at 21/22.....with that being said, I just don't see this gang surrendering major draft capital to move up into let's say the top 10 to chase Mayfield (OR perhaps even higher).....what do you think and what would be the alternative pick?.............

 

If you want a QB in the first round at 21 I think you are looking at Mason Rudolph from OKST.  Solid QB, good college career and a competitor.  I think he can be a middle of the pack starter in the NFL.  I don't see him ever breaking in to the top 10 in he NFL but given there are never 32 starting quality QBs to play in the NFL in any given year, that's not bad.  That's just one man's opinion.

 

I think that before pick 21 there will be five QBs off the board.  My guess is this order: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and Jackson.  I think the first three will be off the board by pick #6.  Even some of the QB needy teams who sign a veteran will pick a guy in the top of this draft if the guy they want is available.  That would give them a chance to have the rookie watch and learn for a year or two.  The current CBA makes the numbers work.   And if the veteran is a great long term option they can flip the young QB for decent capital like Jimmy G to the 9ers.

 

So let me ask you a question.  Would you be willing to trade both 21 & 22 plus a later pick to get one of the top three QBs?

[Buffalo716]

Just now, CritMark said:

 

If he was 6'4" he would be the unquestioned #1 pick IMO. 

 

I agree that completion % is not the exclusive measure.  That's why I like to include rating, TD/INT ratios, performance vs better defenses and not lousy defenses, progress/regression year-to-year, etc.  In addition to looking at total completion %, I also like to look at completion % vs a blitz and % when under pressure (Pro Footbal Focus keeps these stats).  Each is a piece to a puzzle.

 

When I look at all the pieces of the QB puzzle, none of them are perfect, but the clearest picture is Mayfield's.

 

Definitely. Those sights are great for analysis and I break down every metric when looking at a QB

 

Baker has had a phenomenal college career. His #s are spectacular

 

But he is going to have to break the mold because Drew Brees is still the only 6' tall pocket passer ... Russell Wilson is great but he's a playmaker not a standard drop back passer

 

Baker will have to play from the pocket and he does get happy feet in the pocket... Can he overcome that and see running lanes as passing lanes consistently ala Brees? 

 

I wouldnt bet against him 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

The Bills can go a lot of ways at 21-22...

 

if they have an established vet on the roster they can go OL or Dline or maybe Smith, the linebacker from Georgia.

 

they can always pick at 21 and trade 22 away or vice versa and pick up an extra second and third or something 

 

I think At the end of the day if they can't have any of the top 3 I think they would love to have Rudolph in the second but who knows if he'll be there...

 

i mean from a team that reached on EJ Manuel at 16 and Missed on the great JP Losman in the 20s maybe they will finally get that mid/late first round QB correct the third time 

 

...if I understand correctly, here is their order of selection.....as far as an established vet, Andy purported wants a 2nd for Alex, but he has one year left at $17 mil which makes a one year rental for a 2nd untenable.....a 3rd and an agreement in place for a one year extension with an additional option year works for me....he mentors your new 1st round pick and Peterman......staying at 21 nets you the Rudolph kid (available there by most accounts)....so now you have the other 1st and two 2nds to go OL/DL or DL/OL whichever is the priority preference.....still need to consider LB situation.....RB spot can happen in the 5th with two (I think).....get Star in FA for openers.......overall, would this be considered a success?....

 

Round 1

Round 1 (Acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for 10th overall pick)

Round 2

Round 2 (Acquired from Los Angeles Rams in Sammy Watkins trade)

Round 3 (Acquired from Philadelphia Eagles in Ronald Darby trade)

Round 4

Round 5

*Round 6 (Acquired from Jacksonville Jaguars in Marcell Dareus deal; now a 5th?l)

**Round 7

[CritMark]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Definitely. Those sights are great for analysis and I break down every metric when looking at a QB

 

Baker has had a phenomenal college career. His #s are spectacular

 

But he is going to have to break the mold because Drew Brees is still the only 6' tall pocket passer ... Russell Wilson is great but he's a playmaker not a standard drop back passer

 

Baker will have to play from the pocket and he does get happy feet in the pocket... Can he overcome that and see running lanes as passing lanes consistently ala Brees? 

 

I wouldnt bet against him 

 

 

As I said, I think Brees is the best comp for Mayfield.  I agree he is much more like Brees than Wilson.  I don't think Mayfield moves in the pocket to look to run.  He keeps his head up, unlike a lot of young Qbs, looking to throw the ball.  He can run but I would not really consider him a running QB like some.  He's more of a pocket passer first, an out of the pocket passer second and a runner last.

 

I wouldn't bet against him either.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, CritMark said:

 

As I said, I think Brees is the best comp for Mayfield.  I agree he is much more like Brees than Wilson.  I don't think Mayfield moves in the pocket to look to run.  He keeps his head up, unlike a lot of young Qbs, looking to throw the ball.  He can run but I would not really consider him a running QB like some.  He's more of a pocket passer first, an out of the pocket passer second and a runner last.

 

I wouldn't bet against him either.

 

He certaintly can move a bit but he really is a pocket passer that can throw on the run

 

Hes not a dynamic athlete like Wilson or even as quick and shifty as Manziel but he is most certainly athletic enough to move in the pocket and evade rushers and throw on the run

6 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...if I understand correctly, here is their order of selection.....as far as an established vet, Andy purported wants a 2nd for Alex, but he has one year left at $17 mil which makes a one year rental for a 2nd untenable.....a 3rd and an agreement in place for a one year extension with an additional option year works for me....he mentors your new 1st round pick and Peterman......staying at 21 nets you the Rudolph kid (available there by most accounts)....so now you have the other 1st and two 2nds to go OL/DL or DL/OL whichever is the priority preference.....still need to consider LB situation.....RB spot can happen in the 5th with two (I think).....get Star in FA for openers.......overall, would this be considered a success?....

 

Round 1

Round 1 (Acquired from the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for 10th overall pick)

Round 2

Round 2 (Acquired from Los Angeles Rams in Sammy Watkins trade)

Round 3 (Acquired from Philadelphia Eagles in Ronald Darby trade)

Round 4

Round 5

*Round 6 (Acquired from Jacksonville Jaguars in Marcell Dareus deal; now a 5th?l)

**Round 7

 

If we take a QB... any QB and he becomes successful than I'd say the draft was good buddy  

[CritMark]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

 

He certaintly can move a bit but he really is a pocket passer that can throw on the run

 

Hes not a dynamic athlete like Wilson or even as quick and shifty as Manziel but he is most certainly athletic enough to move in the pocket and evade rushers and throw on the run

 

OK, I can sign off on a pocket passer that can throw on the run.  No he is not the athlete Wilson is. 

 

As for Manziel, I don't see the comparison at all.  Manzeil would run at the first sign of trouble.  A lot of his completions were to throw the ball up for grabs and let Evans win the battle.  Mayfield wants to throw the ball and puts it where the receivers can rack up YAC.  Two totally different animals.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 minutes ago, CritMark said:

 

If you want a QB in the first round at 21 I think you are looking at Mason Rudolph from OKST.  Solid QB, good college career and a competitor.  I think he can be a middle of the pack starter in the NFL.  I don't see him ever breaking in to the top 10 in he NFL but given there are never 32 starting quality QBs to play in the NFL in any given year, that's not bad.  That's just one man's opinion.

 

I think that before pick 21 there will be five QBs off the board.  My guess is this order: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and Jackson.  I think the first three will be off the board by pick #6.  Even some of the QB needy teams who sign a veteran will pick a guy in the top of this draft if the guy they want is available.  That would give them a chance to have the rookie watch and learn for a year or two.  The current CBA makes the numbers work.   And if the veteran is a great long term option they can flip the young QB for decent capital like Jimmy G to the 9ers.

 

So let me ask you a question.  Would you be willing to trade both 21 & 22 plus a later pick to get one of the top three QBs?

 

.....wish I had the opportunity to see college ball, but I don't.....so I can't answer your question legitimately......at the same time, I see this gang coveting their draft capital and not surrendering pick(s) to move up......merely a hunch or unsubstantiated opinion....probably why I see them taking Rudolph at #21, safe but unsexy with potential.........