Young34 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Defenses in the top 10 can also be a product of a potent Offense that keeps the other teams offense off the field, and your defense rested Would have to dive into that data, I'm not contesting that at all. A good offense keeps the defense fresh and off the field. It's just an interesting statistic.
twoandfourteen Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: Yes, you need a good QB or an all time defense. The Vikings and Jags D, to me, both look like top 10 defenses since 2000. When you have epically great defenses, you don’t need a “great QB”. When you don’t have an epically great defense, you need a great QB. Exactly -- you need at least a competent QB. Think of Bortles or Foles as the bare minimum. Not great QBs by any stretch, but have exhibited some ability to make accurate, attacking throws. A guy like JP Losman isn't taking a team deep into the playoffs, no matter how great the defense is. You still need to score some points and make a few timely, clutch throws to advance. What got you to 9-7 (simply avoiding turnovers and playing for field position) sure isn't going to get you any further once the big boys are playing for a trophy. You need to be able to get big first downs and to respond to opposition scores. Edited January 15, 2018 by twoandfourteen
Young34 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said: THIS JUST IN: Good teams tend to win championships. ALSO: 90% of Top 10 defenses don't win championships. So what you're saying is only one team can win the Superbowl? Because even if it was a top 10 offense that won, 90% of the top ten offenses that year didn't as well, which is the same exact thing. What's your point?
SoTier Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Young34 said: I'm not contesting that at all. A good offense keeps the defense fresh and off the field. It's just an interesting statistic. Not necessarily if the offense is explosive. We saw this with Philly under Chip Kelly. They scored a lot but they scored fast, so that their Ds were always on the field. This also was part of the problem with the Bills in the 1990s when they faced the tough NFC teams in the Super Bowl. IMO, a team can win a Super Bowl without a top offense but I don't think they can win consistently without a top defense. I think it's easier for a good defense to disrupt a good offense than vice versa, and the playoffs are a gauntlet of good defenses leading to the SB. The years that the Pats have made the Super Bowl, they have always had a top D even if everybody was looking at Brady and the O. The times they've lost Super Bowls, they've been beaten by superior defensive performances.
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 Of course it's essential..... The moral of the Saints win. By Tatonka68, 16 hours ago in The Stadium Wall 1
Young34 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said: Exactly -- you need at least a competent QB. Think of Bortles as the bare minimum. A guy like JP Losman isn't taking a team deep into the playoffs, no matter how great the defense is. You still need to score some points and make a few timely, clutch throws to advance. What got you to 9-7 sure isn't going to get you any further once the big boys are playing for a trophy. Superbowl QB's Joe Kapp ( Career Stats: Record: 24-21-3, 55.2 QBR, 5,911 YDS, 40 TD, 64 INT ) David Woodley ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT) Rex Grossman ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT ) Trent Dilfer ( Career Stats: Record: 58-55-0, 70.2 QBR, 20,518 YDS, 113 TD, 129 INT ) Kerry Collins ( Career Stats: Record: 81-99-0, 73.8 QBR, 40,922 YDS, 208 TD, 196 INT ) Doug Williams ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Craig Morton ( Career Stats: Record: 81-62-1, 73.5 QBR, 27,908 YDS, 183 TD, 187 INT ) Billy Kilmer ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Earl Morrall ( Career Stats: Record: 63-37-3, 74.1 QBR, 809 yards, 161 TD, 148 INT ) Tony Eason ( Career Stats: Record: 28-23-0, 79.7 QBR, 11,142 YDS, 61 TD, 51 INT ) vs. JP Losman 2006 (75.6 QBR, 6271 YDS, 33 TD, 34 INT) Bad QB's get to Superbowls, and comparing JP Losman to the 10 worst Superbowl QB's to play, he has the 2nd highest QBR. So, yeah, a guy like JP Losman can take a team "deep into the playoffs", since there are 10 JP Losman's right there. 1
row_33 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 49 minutes ago, ddaryl said: yes the odds atill go up considerably if you have a Brees Brady or Roethlisberger. Get back to me when a average QB is part of a dynasty multiple SB winning team that competes in the playoffs almost every year [Bob Griese...]
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Young34 said: Superbowl QB's Joe Kapp ( Career Stats: Record: 24-21-3, 55.2 QBR, 5,911 YDS, 40 TD, 64 INT ) David Woodley ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT) Rex Grossman ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT ) Trent Dilfer ( Career Stats: Record: 58-55-0, 70.2 QBR, 20,518 YDS, 113 TD, 129 INT ) Kerry Collins ( Career Stats: Record: 81-99-0, 73.8 QBR, 40,922 YDS, 208 TD, 196 INT ) Doug Williams ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Craig Morton ( Career Stats: Record: 81-62-1, 73.5 QBR, 27,908 YDS, 183 TD, 187 INT ) Billy Kilmer ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Earl Morrall ( Career Stats: Record: 63-37-3, 74.1 QBR, 809 yards, 161 TD, 148 INT ) Tony Eason ( Career Stats: Record: 28-23-0, 79.7 QBR, 11,142 YDS, 61 TD, 51 INT ) vs. JP Losman 2006 (75.6 QBR, 6271 YDS, 33 TD, 34 INT) Bad QB's get to Superbowls, and comparing JP Losman to the 10 worst Superbowl QB's to play, he has the 2nd highest QBR. So, yeah, a guy like JP Losman can take a team "deep into the playoffs", since there are 10 JP Losman's right there. Morrall, Kilmer, Morton even Williams weren't the same flash in the pan types like Grossman and Dilfer. Thye had lgit winning records and 20K yard careers. JPL wasn't even a flash in the pan. He's barely an NFL footnote. He doesn't QB a SB win for the Ravens in 2000. No way.
Bangarang Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Young34 said: Superbowl QB's Joe Kapp ( Career Stats: Record: 24-21-3, 55.2 QBR, 5,911 YDS, 40 TD, 64 INT ) David Woodley ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT) Rex Grossman ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT ) Trent Dilfer ( Career Stats: Record: 58-55-0, 70.2 QBR, 20,518 YDS, 113 TD, 129 INT ) Kerry Collins ( Career Stats: Record: 81-99-0, 73.8 QBR, 40,922 YDS, 208 TD, 196 INT ) Doug Williams ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Craig Morton ( Career Stats: Record: 81-62-1, 73.5 QBR, 27,908 YDS, 183 TD, 187 INT ) Billy Kilmer ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Earl Morrall ( Career Stats: Record: 63-37-3, 74.1 QBR, 809 yards, 161 TD, 148 INT ) Tony Eason ( Career Stats: Record: 28-23-0, 79.7 QBR, 11,142 YDS, 61 TD, 51 INT ) vs. JP Losman 2006 (75.6 QBR, 6271 YDS, 33 TD, 34 INT) Bad QB's get to Superbowls, and comparing JP Losman to the 10 worst Superbowl QB's to play, he has the 2nd highest QBR. So, yeah, a guy like JP Losman can take a team "deep into the playoffs", since there are 10 JP Losman's right there. Youre not really comparing the QB ratings for guys who played in completely different eras are you? Tyrod has a better career QB rating than Jim Kelly. 1
NewEraBills Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 41 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Defenses in the top 10 can also be a product of a potent Offense that keeps the other teams offense off the field, and your defense rested Would have to dive into that data, See Baltimore Ravens from 2000 forward. Their lack offense from all those years wasted their top defensive units. Then their latest SB was because the offense got better. But since then they are back in the same boat. Their offense cannot sustain drives, the defense gets gassed and they cannot finish games. 1
GoBills808 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Youre not really comparing the QB ratings for guys who played in completely different eras are you? Tyrod has a better career QB rating than Jim Kelly. Kelly, Elway, Marino...you can't compare guys across generations by rating. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Young34 said: Superbowl QB's Joe Kapp ( Career Stats: Record: 24-21-3, 55.2 QBR, 5,911 YDS, 40 TD, 64 INT ) David Woodley ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT) Rex Grossman ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT ) Trent Dilfer ( Career Stats: Record: 58-55-0, 70.2 QBR, 20,518 YDS, 113 TD, 129 INT ) Kerry Collins ( Career Stats: Record: 81-99-0, 73.8 QBR, 40,922 YDS, 208 TD, 196 INT ) Doug Williams ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Craig Morton ( Career Stats: Record: 81-62-1, 73.5 QBR, 27,908 YDS, 183 TD, 187 INT ) Billy Kilmer ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Earl Morrall ( Career Stats: Record: 63-37-3, 74.1 QBR, 809 yards, 161 TD, 148 INT ) Tony Eason ( Career Stats: Record: 28-23-0, 79.7 QBR, 11,142 YDS, 61 TD, 51 INT ) vs. JP Losman 2006 (75.6 QBR, 6271 YDS, 33 TD, 34 INT) Bad QB's get to Superbowls, and comparing JP Losman to the 10 worst Superbowl QB's to play, he has the 2nd highest QBR. So, yeah, a guy like JP Losman can take a team "deep into the playoffs", since there are 10 JP Losman's right there. Dude, dude. I'm a stats geek, all the longtimers here know that. But the reason I cut it off at >20 years when looking at the fate of drafted QB and so forth, is that the NFL rules have changed to substantially favor the passing game. You can't compare Tony Eason and JP Losman. If JP Losman teleported back into Tony Eason's game, he'd get eaten for breakfast and spit out in pieces.
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 Franchise QB essential for extended Windows of being good. keeping a great defense together for more than a couple seasons...very difficult. See Seahawks or Ravens or 49ers. keeping Franchise QB around and sprinkling in pieces is much easier. Vikings will understand that next Season when they have to play in a division with #12 back. oh yeah...recall Aaron Rodgers? Who got taken out by Vikes when the Pack were 4-1? vikes that then got 2 Ws against Pack and finished with a 13-3 record. I doubt Vikings are hosting anything yesterday if #12 is starting for Packers all season.
Lfod Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 I'm it the twilight zone. First it was "All you need is a franchise quarter back!". Now I'm reading "You can win with average QBs look!" Any given Sunday anything can happen and unpredictable stuff can happen. Best not to live in extremes.
xRUSHx Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 46 minutes ago, NewEra said: Yes, you need a good QB or an all time defense. The Vikings and Jags D, to me, both look like top 10 defenses since 2000. When you have epically great defenses, you don’t need a “great QB”. When you don’t have an epically great defense, you need a great QB. You need a QB to at least score when needed, to step up. 3 points by a QB in a big game is not a good QB that is just not good enough . If we had a QB that played just a little better the Jags great D wouldn't have advanced in the playoffs the Bills would have IMO.
ghostwriter Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, Young34 said: Superbowl QB's Joe Kapp ( Career Stats: Record: 24-21-3, 55.2 QBR, 5,911 YDS, 40 TD, 64 INT ) David Woodley ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT) Rex Grossman ( Career Stats: Record: 25-22-0, 71.4 QBR, 10,232 YDS, 56 TD, 60 INT ) Trent Dilfer ( Career Stats: Record: 58-55-0, 70.2 QBR, 20,518 YDS, 113 TD, 129 INT ) Kerry Collins ( Career Stats: Record: 81-99-0, 73.8 QBR, 40,922 YDS, 208 TD, 196 INT ) Doug Williams ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Craig Morton ( Career Stats: Record: 81-62-1, 73.5 QBR, 27,908 YDS, 183 TD, 187 INT ) Billy Kilmer ( Career Stats: Record: 61-52-1, 71.6 QBR, 20,495 YDS, 152 TD, 146 INT ) Earl Morrall ( Career Stats: Record: 63-37-3, 74.1 QBR, 809 yards, 161 TD, 148 INT ) Tony Eason ( Career Stats: Record: 28-23-0, 79.7 QBR, 11,142 YDS, 61 TD, 51 INT ) vs. JP Losman 2006 (75.6 QBR, 6271 YDS, 33 TD, 34 INT) Bad QB's get to Superbowls, and comparing JP Losman to the 10 worst Superbowl QB's to play, he has the 2nd highest QBR. So, yeah, a guy like JP Losman can take a team "deep into the playoffs", since there are 10 JP Losman's right there. You have to factor in that from a sheer numbers standpoint for every good QB there are 50 bad ones. So yes, you can get deep in the playoffs with a bad QB but you're talking 1:100 odds. I'll always take the field over any golfer, even if it's Tiger Woods or Vijay Singh. So back to a football standpoint, will Tom Brady win the Super Bowl every year? No. But he still gives you the best chance but of course a Trent Dilfer or Doug Williams will sneak one in, but we are talking about Powerball odds. 1
Lfod Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, xRUSHx said: You need a QB to at least score when needed, to step up. 3 points by a QB in a big game is not a good QB that is just not good enough . If we had a QB that played just a little better the Jags great D wouldn't have advanced in the playoffs the Bills would have IMO. That's all I could ask. Not like you have to be elite QB. Just make enough plays to score more then 10 points. Especially when your in the Playoffs and you had time and games to find a groove. 1
Young34 Posted January 15, 2018 Posted January 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Dude, dude. I'm a stats geek, all the longtimers here know that. But the reason I cut it off at >20 years when looking at the fate of drafted QB and so forth, is that the NFL rules have changed to substantially favor the passing game. You can't compare Tony Eason and JP Losman. If JP Losman teleported back into Tony Eason's game, he'd get eaten for breakfast and spit out in pieces. Your point is well taken. Either way, the above list is from the top 25 worst QB's to play in a Superbowl, even for their eras. My point is that even bad QB's have a shot if the defense is that good, proven in history. Granted, having a solid QB helps immensely, but people shouldn't be saying "you can't make it without a franchise QB", because that's wrong.
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