Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

You dont pay franchise money for a guy who isn't a franchise QB. And Cousins is DEFINITELY not a franchise QB

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The going price for a starting QB is around $20 mil / year.  

 

Make a a fair priced 3 to 5 year deal and Cousins might be interested.  

 

You dont known unless you try.  

 

I’ve posted Denver may have interest a few times already.  

[fridge]

57 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He actually has been since being named starter. I agree with OP wholeheartedly and have thought similarly since it looked like Washington wasn’t going to keep him. 

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but could you share some metrics that support the idea that Cousins has been lighting up the league? A quick glance shows that he's been pretty pedestrian.  Of course, pedestrian is a giant upgrade over Taylor, but at what cost?

[McBean]

IMO we have 2 options:

 

1. Sign Cousins like you said and build through draft.

 

2. Trade the house for the #2 overall pick and get Darnold or Rosen.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, fridge said:

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but could you share some metrics that support the idea that Cousins has been lighting up the league? A quick glance shows that he's been pretty pedestrian.  Of course, pedestrian is a giant upgrade over Taylor, but at what cost?

 

He puts up a lot of yards but doesnt make plays when it counts. Which is a large part of why he has a terrible record as a starting QB.

[aceman_16]

2 hours ago, jr1 said:

would you make a starting pitcher with a 26-30-1 career record the highest paid player in MLB?

Sure.... in 1987 Nolan Ryan had a 2.76 ERA, 142 ERA+, 270 Strikeouts, 2.47 FIP, 6.5 Hits/9, and a 3.10 K/BB ratio, all of which led the league...

...and went 8-16.

[Process]

Cousins is an average QB. Not even top 10 in the league. And he might become the highest paid player in league history. 

 

What is wrong with you people?

[BadLandsMeanie]

I can support Shaw's position.

 

First, of course he would consider Buffalo. Because if he is not a foolish person, he is most concerned with what kind of offensive line he will have. That is number one for a QB. We haven't got a top Oline but we are getting there and more importantly McDermott and Beane have not shown themselves to be liars.

 

So if they tell Cousins they will get him a good line he can play safely behind, he can believe them.

 

I don't know if he is foolish or not but if he is intelligent that is what he will be looking for.

 

I also am not sure he is a franchise QB because I personally haven't watched the film on him. But assuming he is, he isn't nearly as expensive as people think. It could actually be cheaper to pay him.

 

Follow along please before you jeer me.

 

 

To trade up to grab at the top of the draft lets say it will cost us 3 first round picks, or, 2 firsts and two 2nds.

 

I will do this with 2 firsts and 2 seconds.

 

 

TL;dr for this segment is this. The drop off from Gilmore to Tre White has been pretty much zero.

 

In 2017 Tre White made 2.5 million, Gilmore made 14 million. To pay the market rate for a corner back like that costs 11.5 million more.

 

Do that twice with 2 first round picks and there is Cousin's salary.

 

If we give up all those picks we have to pay free agents to do those jobs.

 

The average mid 20's first round draft pick makes about 2.5 million a year.

 

The average mid round 2^nd round pick makes around 1.25 million a year.

 

Say we hit on 3 of 4 of those picks you can figure we are getting 30 million dollars worth of players for 5 million. There is the 25 million for Cousins right there.

 

 

Or we can trade the 2 firsts and the 2 seconds and gamble. We might get a legit starter or or 50-50 chance we get a bust.

 

To me the safer and maybe even cheaper option is to get Cousins and then keep picking up good prospect Qbs in the 2^nd or around in there.

 

Use the picks to help build a stronger team. And we can still afford some good quality free agents.

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[y2zipper]

Cousins is a top 3rd of the league talent over the last 3 years in spite of Washington being a historically cheap organization. Cousins was a top ten talent by any metric 2 years ago and last year despite Washington being unable to run or play defense. Frankly 

 

He wasn't as good this season, but Washington let both his top receivers go and Pryor had a bad year. Buffalo already has better support than Cousins did in Washington. 

 

He isn't a top 5 guy but he's good enough to make him the highest-paid player and is at an age where he'll be good for the mAjority of a contract.

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

id take my chances on a top kid, or a later first round kid and Alex Smith and then sign some people.

I agree with this.

[GoBills808]

39 minutes ago, fridge said:

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but could you share some metrics that support the idea that Cousins has been lighting up the league? A quick glance shows that he's been pretty pedestrian.  Of course, pedestrian is a giant upgrade over Taylor, but at what cost?

Sure. Over the last 3 years (he became starter in 2015), here are his NFL ranks among qualified active starters:

 

3rd in comp%

4th in yards

8th in TDs

6th in rating (if you like qb rating, because if you don't...)

 

5th in ANY/A (my personal favorite)...which takes into account the amount of sacks he takes (it's a lot) due to what IMO is a bad Washington line.

 

also 7th, 3rd, and 16th (a down year in 2017) by DYAR if you're a Football Outsiders kind of guy...and he's done all this with the kind of offensive weapons that Bills fans would scoff at. He is in no way pedestrian. Cousins is a legit talent and the fact that he might be available is crazy...I don't understand why people wouldn't want him. Personally I'd make him the highest paid QB in the NFL and not bat an eye.

 

[Real McClappy]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Sure. Over the last 3 years (he became starter in 2015), here are his NFL ranks among qualified active starters:

 

3rd in comp%

4th in yards

8th in TDs

6th in rating (if you like qb rating, because if you don't...)

 

5th in ANY/A (my personal favorite)...which takes into account the amount of sacks he takes (it's a lot) due to what IMO is a bad Washington line.

 

also 7th, 3rd, and 16th (a down year in 2017) by DYAR if you're a Football Outsiders kind of guy...and he's done all this with the kind of offensive weapons that Bills fans would scoff at. He is in no way pedestrian. Cousins is a legit talent and the fact that he might be available is crazy...I don't understand why people wouldn't want him. Personally I'd make him the highest paid QB in the NFL and not bat an eye.

 

Nice Post. 

 

I think Skins had 17 diff players start on the O-line this year as well due to non stop injuries. Cousins has never had a true RB1 and a elite TE that only plays 50% of the time. Lastly, what happened to Garcon and Jackson after they left Washington with +1K yards receiving? I can't remember hearing their names much this year, they are literally half the player this year without Cousins proving the "QB elevates the players around him" crowd 100% wrong.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Real McCoy

[fridge]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Sure. Over the last 3 years (he became starter in 2015), here are his NFL ranks among qualified active starters:

 

3rd in comp%

4th in yards

8th in TDs

6th in rating (if you like qb rating, because if you don't...)

 

5th in ANY/A (my personal favorite)...which takes into account the amount of sacks he takes (it's a lot) due to what IMO is a bad Washington line.

 

also 7th, 3rd, and 16th (a down year in 2017) by DYAR if you're a Football Outsiders kind of guy...and he's done all this with the kind of offensive weapons that Bills fans would scoff at. He is in no way pedestrian. Cousins is a legit talent and the fact that he might be available is crazy...I don't understand why people wouldn't want him. Personally I'd make him the highest paid QB in the NFL and not bat an eye.

 

 

Thank you for that.

[Batman1876]

I like him and if the previous regime had not put us in a bad cap spot I would be all for signing him.  I just think that we will be priced out of the market.  He’ll either go to a team that only needs a QB or a team with a ton of cash looking to build around him.

[DefenseWins]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Cousins is not signing for Buffalo. 

 

I've asked before why anyone thinks that Cousins would be more inclined to sign here as opposed to anywhere else. I still haven't heard a good answer to my question. I mean - Don't you think that the Jets, Broncos or Cardinals will be making Cousins big $$$ offers?

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I want Cousins. I don’t want to settle for the 4th or 5th guy in the draft and nobody else available is as good as Cousins. Pay him, get a real qb for a change and let’s start challenging for Div titles.

[oldmanfan]

Completely agree with Shaw on this.  Think through it.   Another post today talks about a 50% probability of finding a guy if you pick high in the first round.   To get there you'd have to give up a ton of picks that could be used elsewhere.

 

Cousins is a top ten guy.  Some here say he's not a franchise QB.  To which I say: define the term.  Ten people will give you at minimum ten different definitions of what franchise QB means.  Some say he'll cost too much against the cap.  To which I say:  every good QB does.  It's the nature of the position, and how the league works.  Doesn't necessarily make it right but it is what it is.  Some say he won't sign with us vs. teams like Denver or Cleveland.  To which I say:  read the recent SI article about him.  He is all about process, as is our HC, and we are a playoff team that needs more in offense to continue improvement.  It is easy to see him fitting in perfectly with our organization.

 

is he a Brady?  No.  A Rogers?  No.  But he's a good solid QB.  Don't let the aura of great be the enemy of good.

[26CornerBlitz]

Yes. Let's just go get Cousins.  He'll have no say in the matter.  Goodell will mandate that he comes to OBD. 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Yes. Let's just go get Cousins.  He'll have no say in the matter.  Goodell will mandate that he comes to OBD. 

Yes, we all understand it is not a given.  Get over yourself.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Yes, we all understand it is not a given.  Get over yourself.

 

Shut up!