Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

39 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

 

This is essentially the logic behind my top choice.  The unknown is how high other teams with more cap space are willing to bid.

 

I don't think it's going to be all about money for Cousins.  I think he wants to win, and he's gotten fed up with Washington team building and coaching.

So part of acquiring Cousins is going to be selling him on "The Process" for each team who wants him.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except the 3 years he has been the Redskins starter they have won 9, 8 and 8. I was slow to come around on Cousins.... I think he is borderline top 10 but there is no evidence he raises his team up around him so far. 

 

Fair enough, but think of it this way.  On my QB draft thread, someone pointed out that by my criteria, ~half of the QB I sorted as "good" were not "Superbowl worthy" by his criteria.

I think that's the same thing as "raises the team" and the point is - the odds of finding a QB who 'raises his team up around him' are even lower than the odds of finding a QB who can just give us years of competent QB play - roughly 25% vs 50% in the first 5 picks of the draft, and perhaps 15% lower down.

[Batman1876]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Yes I am ok spending that. QBS help soo much on a team. Would put us playoffs every year. Not lucky to get in and stuff.

Then have 15 mill to sign our rookies and fill all our other holes?

[mead107]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is essentially the logic behind my top choice.  The unknown is how high other teams with more cap space are willing to bid.

 

I don't think it's going to be all about money for Cousins.  I think he wants to win, and he's gotten fed up with Washington team building and coaching.

So part of acquiring Cousins is going to be selling him on "The Process" for each team who wants him.

 

Fair enough, but think of it this way.  On my QB draft thread, someone pointed out that by my criteria, ~half of the QB I sorted as "good" were not "Superbowl worthy" by his criteria.

I think that's the same thing as "raises the team" and the point is - the odds of finding a QB who 'raises his team up around him' are even lower than the odds of finding a QB who can just give us years of competent QB play - roughly 25% vs 50% in the first 5 picks of the draft, and perhaps 15% lower down.

We could keep Tyrod with the new OC.  (Shula) 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Then have 15 mill to sign our rookies and fill all our other holes?

 

Yes at this point. Bill's had soo many team wasted lots of talent with bad QB. I want the Bill's just go for it with Kirk Cousins,

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, jr1 said:

would you make a starting pitcher with a 26-30-1 career record the highest paid player in MLB?

 

Um, in the NFL they do.  They did it with Kap, Luck, Stafford, Carr, Tannehill, etc.  QB's get grossly over paid all the time for being young or in prime with upside.  I dont agree with it, but its the way the NFL works right now.

 

And, can we all just stop the nonsense of pinning a the W/L record on the QB's...means nothing.  You all hate TT, and he was a playoff QB this year.  Dilfer won a SB.  

 

Drew Brees record the last 4 years:  32-33

Pretty sure Brees is one of the GOAT's too.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Then have 15 mill to sign our rookies and fill all our other holes?

 

Well, first off, if you don't draft a QB (and especially if AND DAMN, Eagles gonna regret that...sorry, Bird Bowl), you have more picks to fill holes.

But yeah, part of the cap math is that it's possible to make a guy happy by giving him a front-loaded contract with a fat signing bonus this year and not much salary this year.

 

Then part of the math is that between shedding Dareus this year, and possibly trading or cutting Taylor, is that we have a big chunk of Dead Money cap change coming off the books this year - more than $20M I believe.  In fact, I hold the belief that one driver for the Dareus trade was to hand off his guaranteed salary to someone else, and accelerate his cap hit onto the books this year so we'd clear space next year to pay more salary.

[Domdab99]

I'm fine with trying out Cousins as the Bill's QB. What I'm not fine with is the price and cap hit it will take to get him here. 

[mead107]

57 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the off-season that secures the Bills' future is to write the big check for Cousins.  I haven't studied the cap situation, but on the assumption the Bills could find the room, I think that's the way to go.

 

Why?  Two part answer:

 

1.  Looking for a QB in the draft is a crapshoot, even near the top of round 1.  Teams have demonstrated for years that it simply isn't easy to identify the right guy in draft.    So you're much better off if you can solve your QB problem another way and use your picks to build the rest of the team.   That isn't easy to do, but if you can do it, you're way ahead of the game.  That's what the Seahawks did - admittedly with a little luck, they solved their QB problem with Wilson in the third round.   The result was that they had a lot of picks, in earlier years and for a year or two later, and they acquired a lot of cheap talent in the draft.   

 

So if the Bills can fill the QB slot without burning a lot of picks, that's the way to go.  They have those five picks in the first three rounds, which means they can get a lot of good young talent to bolster the team at several positions.   

 

And, if they sign Cousins, they still can take a shot at a decent young QB in the draft where they see value.  Maybe they'll get lucky and have a kid on the bench who can grow into the job and eventually take it from Cousins. 

 

2.  Why Cousins?   Do I think he's a HOF QB?   No.   But I think you're playing a fool's game if your objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB.   To do that, you have to pick at the top of the draft and then hope things work out, because the top of the draft is where Hall of Fame QBs come from.    And if you tell me that there's Brady and Watson and Brees, then fine, my strategy plays right into that - pick a QB along the way when you see what you think is a good one. 

 

But in the meantime, you want to compete, and to compete you need a top 10 QB.   I've said that for years.   After Taylor's first year I said that if he'd keep playing at that level, he'd be the guy.   Unfortunately, it's two years later and he hasn't played at the same level, he's dropped to the point where he's an average or below average QB in the league, and that isn't good enough. 

 

Cousins IS a top 10 QB.   He's had three good seasons, altho 2017 fell off a bit.   His passer rating comfortably averages in the top 10.   He has good size.   He seems smart and in control of the game.   He sees and is willing to make the throws Taylor doesn't and isn't.   Actually, in some ways he reminds me of Kelly.   Not the best thrower, but good enough.   Tough.   Competitor.

 

So pay him.   Get him in Buffalo.   It means you're not going after any other high priced free agents, because you won't have the cap room.   But that's okay.   Benjamin is the only who will be coming off a contract soon who will get a big contract.   Watkins and Dareus are gone.  McCoy won't get another huge deal.   

 

Load up on talent in the draft, and go to work.   

 

If you have Cousins on a six-year deal, you can draft an occasional QB.   If you find one who looks like the guy, then you cut Cousins late in his contract and eat some cap room, if necessary to keep the youngster.   And if somehow Cousins emerges into a true star, then you trade the youngster you drafted, like the Pats have done over and over again, and you ride Cousins for the next 8-10 years.  

 

Make me GM for a day and that's where I'm going.   

You do have a way of making long post.  Most are interesting. 2 paragraphs could hav gotten same message across.  Just saying.  ?

[MJS]

I don't care what they have to spend. If they believe Cousins is a franchise guy, go try to get him. If you don't think he is, don't even bother. Draft a 1st rounder high and bring in a vet to play while he develops.

 

I personally think Cousins is a good QB and I would not be unhappy if they brought him in, regardless of price.

[RiotAct]

36 minutes ago, jr1 said:

would you make a starting pitcher with a 26-30-1 career record the highest paid player in MLB?

If his team regularly gave him 1-2 runs per game of run support, then sure, if his ERA and WHIP demanded it.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Not saying this reflects my opinion, but reading this thread made me think to go to PFF and see their 2017 rankings:

 

7. Smith: 85.9

12. Taylor: 84.1 

20. Cousins: 78.9

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except the 3 years he has been the Redskins starter they have won 9, 8 and 8. I was slow to come around on Cousins.... I think he is borderline top 10 but there is no evidence he raises his team up around him so far. 

The redskins fo is a dysfunctional team imo.  

 

I’m not a big fan but living in the area you hear stuff.   

[Happy]

I'm not against going after Cousins, as well as Alex Smith.  How much is too much to pay for Cousins...$25M/yr, $30M/yr, etc?  At those prices, he's overvalued, but FA QB's will be with the lack of good ones available.  The problem I think we run into with Cousins is Denver will be competition and will further drive the price up.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Fair enough, but think of it this way.  On my QB draft thread, someone pointed out that by my criteria, ~half of the QB I sorted as "good" were not "Superbowl worthy" by his criteria.

I think that's the same thing as "raises the team" and the point is - the odds of finding a QB who 'raises his team up around him' are even lower than the odds of finding a QB who can just give us years of competent QB play - roughly 25% vs 50% in the first 5 picks of the draft, and perhaps 15% lower down.

 

I respect guys like Cousins and Alex Smith. I just don't think you throw top end money at them.

 

It is irrelevant anyway..... Cousins is not coming here. Denver, Jacksonville and Arizona are all more likely. 

[JaCrispy]

47 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

He’s going to sign the richest contract ever, think 150 over 5 years more if there is s bidding war. Are you ok with spending that? 

I guarantee no one is paying that...probably more in the neighborhood of 4 yrs $100 million

10 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Not saying this reflects my opinion, but reading this thread made me think to go to PFF and see their 2017 rankings:

 

7. Smith: 85.9

12. Taylor: 84.1 

20. Cousins: 78.9

 

 

These stats are a joke...no one, and I mean no one believes Taylor is a better QB than Cousins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Not saying this reflects my opinion, but reading this thread made me think to go to PFF and see their 2017 rankings:

 

7. Smith: 85.9

12. Taylor: 84.1 

20. Cousins: 78.9

 

I kinda wish someone would put Play Fantasy Football (aka PFF) in the toilet and flush.  Their rankings just aren't correlated to actual game performance.

 

[Batman1876]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

I guarantee no one is paying that...probably more in the neighborhood of 4 yrs $100 million

He’s going to get Stafford money. Someone will make him the highest paid player in the NFL. With the Browns and Jets sitting on 100+ mil cap space it’s sure to happen. When was the last time a major free agent wasn’t over paid?  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I guarantee no one is paying that...probably more in the neighborhood of 4 yrs $100 million

These stats are a joke...no one, and I mean no one believes Taylor is a better QB than Cousins

 

Yeah, I'm certainly not saying they should be taken as the end-all-be-all, but I do know a lot of people consider PFF to be at least somewhat credible/useful. 

 

I do not think Taylor is a better QB than Cousins, but I also do not think the gap is as wide as it is made out to be. 

[Domdab99]

15 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't care what they have to spend. If they believe Cousins is a franchise guy, go try to get him. If you don't think he is, don't even bother. Draft a 1st rounder high and bring in a vet to play while he develops.

 

I personally think Cousins is a good QB and I would not be unhappy if they brought him in, regardless of price.

 

but what do you impersonally think?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I respect guys like Cousins and Alex Smith. I just don't think you throw top end money at them.

 

It is irrelevant anyway..... Cousins is not coming here. Denver, Jacksonville and Arizona are all more likely. 

 

Why do you see those as the most likely landing spots?

1 minute ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

Yeah, I'm certainly not saying they should be taken as the end-all-be-all, but I do know a lot of people consider PFF to be at least somewhat credible/useful. 

 

I do not think Taylor is a better QB than Cousins, but I also do not think the gap is as wide as it is made out to be. 

 

PFF is useful - for folks who play Fantasy Football