Why I Think the Smart Move is Pay to Get Cousins

[Royale with Cheese]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'll jump back in.  A couple of things. 

 

First, to reiterate a point I made earlier, I think there's a difference between overpaying for a QB and overpaying for a position player.   If you pay top 3 money to a receiver or a tackle or a linebacker who turns out to be top 10 at his position, you've overpaid and it was a mistake.    You could have gotten as effective a guy for a lot less.   Like Sammy.   The Bills paid two first round picks plus for a guy who performed like several guys they could have gotten with one pick.   So that was a mistake. 

 

At QB it's different.   If you pay top 3 money for a QB who turns out to be the 10th best QB in the league, it's not a mistake.    You're paying too much, but it isn't a mistake, because you couldn't have gotten another guy who's 10th best.   They just aren't easy to find.  

 

More importantly, if you have the 10th best receiver, or 10th best offensive tackle, that guy isn't on his own putting you in the playoff conversation year in and year out.   If you have the 10th best QB, you are in the conversation.    

 

If you pay top 3 money for a QB and he turns out to be the 15th best AB, then you've made a mistake, because the 15th best QB DOESN'T put you in the playoff discussion.  

 

Yes, whoever gets Cousins will have overpaid for him.   But I think it won't be a mistake. 

 

Second, a lot of the discussion has turned to whether Cousins would come to Buffalo.   Someone said there's an SI article about what he's looking for and how McD is the kind of guy he'd like.  I'll need to go find that article - my sense has been exactly that.   Cousins is a guy who LIKES being in a program, a system, where everyone has a role and where he can do his.    

 

I don't think people should overlook the ability of OBD to sell itself now.   Terry and Kim are a very attractive pair - they're pleasant, warm, charming, and earnest.   The simple fact that they're spending BILLIONS of dollars because they want to do something for Buffalo is pretty impressive.  It speaks to their sincerity.   Then you get to Bean and McDermott, two guys who are interest, deadly serious and committed.   They LOOK like winners.    That's a pretty impressive package.   

 

So I think if the Bills decide that Cousins is someone they want, I think they'll be willing to spend and they'll sell themselves quite well. 

 

The Giants, by virtue of tradition and market, would be formidable competition.   I don't think they'd shy away from the bidding just because they have Eli.  They'd find a way to deal with the cap and compensation issues.   The Giants problem is they don't have a coach, and the team actually is in much more disarray than the Bills.   The Bills offer a stable package going forward; the Giants are up in the air.   

 

The Broncos would seem to be more attractive.   Elway is an attraction.   There probably are other things that might make the Broncos a place he'd like. 

 

But let's go back to the Bills for a minute.   I think there are some other things, intangibles, that might make Buffalo especially attractive to him.   One is the challenge of bringing a championship to the city.    But think about this:

 

Cousins is from Illinois, I think.   He went to high school in Michigan, played at Michigan State, and has played pro ball on the East Coast.   His parents now live in Florida.   I think he's and east coast/midwest guy, and Denver may have little geographic appeal to him.  

 

Moreover, his father's a pastor, he went to a Christian high school, he participated in Athletes in Action in college.   McD and I believe Beane are serious Christians - they don't beat people over the head with it, so far as I can tell, but if Cousins is a serious Christian, there's a good chance he's going to feel a connection to McD.   And having an owner who lives in Florida where is parents live is another connection.  

 

Not saying it's going to happen, but I don't think it's far-fetched.  

 

You’re always going to overpay for QB’s because of how important the position is.

 

Cousins will be overpaid just like Jameis Winston will be a few years, Goff and Wentz will follow.  Stafford and Carr last year..

 

 

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Please understand, these arent my opinions. I'm going off of what I've literally heard Cousins say in interviews. I'm digging hard for a link or something in print, but it wasnt too long ago I saw this. He/his agent basically said that it didnt matter how much the offer from Washington was, they weren't going to sign it last year, and they still arent going to sign it this year. And they've seen enough of a poorly run franchise to prioritize moving to a better FO. Much like how Eli refused San Diego for the Giants, and Elway refused the Colts for Denver.

 

Also, I don't think you are giving the Broncos enough credit, and I dont blame you because I used to think that way as well. I was surprised to learn it, but apparently that franchise is incredibly well respected across the Pro Sports world.

Two days ago Cousins apparently said he would consider playing for the Browns.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-kirk-cousins-would-seriously-consider-playing-for-the-browns/

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

His top target Jordan Reed says hello.  LT Trent Williams says hello. I could go on. 

Yeah a TE that’s constantly hurt and a LT. big time weapons 

[Royale with Cheese]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Flacco and the Ravens won a SB, they were going to pay him whatever he wanted. That's just how it goes, and rightfully so: if you told me within the next 5 years we'd win a championship but be saddled with a monster Cousins contract that would strap us for 7 years...wouldn't you take that deal every day?

Also OldTime, you don't put up Cousins' numbers being mediocre. He's borderline elite IMO. He's just playing on a mediocre team.

 

We’re eventually going to have to overpay a QB....whether it’s now or a few years down the road.  You’re in a good spot if you have someone that you can pay a ridiculous contract.

 

i like the idea of Cousins because he keeps us competitive now.  Our defense is a few positions away from being very good.

 

Next best thing is the draft but they probably means a step back next year which I would hate.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Two days ago Cousins apparently said he would consider playing for the Browns.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-kirk-cousins-would-seriously-consider-playing-for-the-browns/

 

lol, fair enough. we'll see.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

lol, fair enough. we'll see.

 

I think that’s just a way his agent is driving up his contract.

 

Man sucks to be a Browns fan...”I’ll even consider playing for your team!”

 

Its like saying “I’ll even consider going to a Jacksonville strip club if I have to”

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

We’re eventually going to have to overpay a QB....whether it’s now or a few years down the road.  You’re in a good spot if you have someone that you can pay a ridiculous contract.

 

i like the idea of Cousins because he keeps us competitive now.  Our defense is a few positions away from being very good.

 

Next best thing is the draft but they probably means a step back next year which I would hate.

Exactly this. Windows are short and patience is a commodity. Take your chance now with Cousins, use the draft to fill needs, hope for the best in 2 years. And since Cousins is significantly better NOW than any rookie QB will be in 2018 (and maybe ever), it's lower-risk than moving up in the first round. Plus if it works out, he's only 29.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You’re always going to overpay for QB’s because of how important the position is.

 

Cousins will be overpaid just like Jameis Winston will be a few years, Goff and Wentz will follow.  Stafford and Carr last year..

 

 

And I'd say that it's better than even money that at least one of those is going to be a disappointment, in the sense that he got, say, top 5 money but turns out to be only a top 15 guy.   In other words, at least one will be the next Flacco.  

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Exactly this. Windows are short and patience is a commodity. Take your chance now with Cousins, use the draft to fill needs, hope for the best in 2 years. And since Cousins is significantly better NOW than any rookie QB will be in 2018 (and maybe ever), it's lower-risk than moving up in the first round. Plus if it works out, he's only 29.

Yes.

 

He'd be an upgrade right now, and you keep drafting QBs.   That way you have his replacement on board if Cousins turns out not be THE answer.  

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Their defense has been pretty much on the same level as the Bills.  Aside from that, Cousins isn't a great decision maker and he throws for big yards because of the offense he plays in with a high volume of pass attempts. 

 

I understand the reluctance to pay Cousins the highest contract at the position when he’s not in the top 5 among QB’s.  But that’s what the position commands.  Carr and Stafford got their mega deals because of it.

 

IMO opinion, Cousins is a top 10 QB in a bad organization.  

[Shaw66]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I understand the reluctance to pay Cousins the highest contract at the position when he’s not in the top 5 among QB’s.  But that’s what the position commands.  Carr and Stafford got their mega deals because of it.

 

IMO opinion, Cousins is a top 10 QB in a bad organization.  

That's where I started.   I think he's top 10.   On the bubble, but top 10.  

 

The whole point is (1) you're have to overpay him to get him and (2) it's worth it to overpay him if he's actually top 10.   Worth it at top 10 or better, a mistake at top 15 or worse.  

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's where I started.   I think he's top 10.   On the bubble, but top 10.  

 

The whole point is (1) you're have to overpay him to get him and (2) it's worth it to overpay him if he's actually top 10.   Worth it at top 10 or better, a mistake at top 15 or worse.  

 

The QB position is like a used Toyota.  You can keep the prices higher than other used cars because people will pay that because they are reliable vehicles.  

[DrDawkinstein]

15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think that’s just a way his agent is driving up his contract.

 

Man sucks to be a Browns fan...”I’ll even consider playing for your team!”

 

Its like saying “I’ll even consider going to a Jacksonville strip club if I have to”

 

[Foxx]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'll jump back in.  A couple of things. 

 

First, to reiterate a point I made earlier, I think there's a difference between overpaying for a QB and overpaying for a position player.   If you pay top 3 money to a receiver or a tackle or a linebacker who turns out to be top 10 at his position, you've overpaid and it was a mistake.    You could have gotten as effective a guy for a lot less.   Like Sammy.   The Bills paid two first round picks plus for a guy who performed like several guys they could have gotten with one pick.   So that was a mistake. 

 

At QB it's different.   If you pay top 3 money for a QB who turns out to be the 10th best QB in the league, it's not a mistake.    You're paying too much, but it isn't a mistake, because you couldn't have gotten another guy who's 10th best.   They just aren't easy to find.  ...

 

...

seriously? are you even thinking before you let your fingers touch the keyboard? there is so much wrong with this logic that i am left flabbergasted and wouldn't even know where to begin to express it's failings. amazing.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Foxx

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

The Redskins for whatever reason have avoided making a long term commitment to him. That has to mean something. Teams just don’t let franchise guys walk like they are about to.

This is the team that signed Haynsworth and RG III.  

 

They hired a GM with a known drinking problem and let him go because of a drinking problem.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Jackson Reed and Garcon I answered...Crowder is a 4th round pick that Cousins made and NOT the other way around. Morris's one year (only one) with Cousins he averaged 3.7YPC. Do your homework.

Jordon Reed?  

 

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

And hes put up 9000 yards and 54 TDs with them.  What more do you want a QB to do? 

Have a name like Tyrod Taylor? 

 

? 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

This is the team that signed Haynsworth and RG III.  

 

They hired a GM with a known drinking problem and let him go because of a drinking problem.  

 

 

Jordon Reed?  

 

 

...But Bruce Allen is Prez and was pretty well respected for work in TB....think he is George Allen's kid.......why wouldn't he step in to override Cerralo or McCloughan ??........

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So...nothing? Just more snide? 

This is what you get when he’s not pasting other people’s information and data. 

Snark and ridicule. 

 

Or mind your your own business.  

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I’ve read the argument several times that the reason Taylor wasn’t more successful here is because if the defense.... specifically the Rex Ryan years.  Why can’t the same argument be made for Cousins who have had a worse defense?

Hippo crazy 

 

Two days running of  ranting.  Someone needs a vacation to relax.  

10 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...But Bruce Allen is Prez and was pretty well respected for work in TB....think he is George Allen's kid.......why wouldn't he step in to override Cerralo or McCloughan ??........

I’ll say it again.  

Im not a huge Cousins fan but I will say it is on DC and that he is better than Tyrod.   

[Shaw66]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No it wouldn't. We took a swing on a Quarterback in 2013 that didn't work out and after riding with him in his rookie year we have won 9, 8, 7 and 9 games the next 4 games.

 

Missing on Quarterback does not set teams back for years anymore. And if the Bills are spending extra picks they have this year rather than their 2019 picks then the most they are risking is a 1 or 2 year setback with a wrong choice. 

Someone else just quoted this and I wanted to talk about this.   It's a very good point.  

 

When you pick the wrong guy, whether as a draft choice or as a free agent, he sets you back three years, more or less.   Why?  Because you have to invest three years in him to know what you've got.   If he's the guy you want, you make him the starter and run with him.   It's only less if (1) he turns out to be a total bust or (2) somebody like Russell Wilson comes along and surprises everyone.    

 

If the guy you're investing in is drafted, if you're like the Bills and not sitting on a top pick, you have to give up several of your picks, usually a couple of firsts to move up, often three.   Giving up those picks means you have three holes someplace else for three to five years, and you have to fill them as well as you can.   If the guy you invest in is a free agent, it means you're using cap space, so you can't sign as many other free agents (or you have to lose some guys) as you ordinarily would.   

 

Bottom line, whichever way you go when you invest in a top QB, you're betting some of your short-term future on the guy.   

 

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

[26CornerBlitz]

We don't need Cousins. Nathan Peterman is the answer.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Someone else just quoted this and I wanted to talk about this.   It's a very good point.  

 

When you pick the wrong guy, whether as a draft choice or as a free agent, he sets you back three years, more or less.   Why?  Because you have to invest three years in him to know what you've got.   If he's the guy you want, you make him the starter and run with him.   It's only less if (1) he turns out to be a total bust or (2) somebody like Russell Wilson comes along and surprises everyone.    

 

If the guy you're investing in is drafted, if you're like the Bills and not sitting on a top pick, you have to give up several of your picks, usually a couple of firsts to move up, often three.   Giving up those picks means you have three holes someplace else for three to five years, and you have to fill them as well as you can.   If the guy you invest in is a free agent, it means you're using cap space, so you can't sign as many other free agents (or you have to lose some guys) as you ordinarily would.   

 

Bottom line, whichever way you go when you invest in a top QB, you're betting some of your short-term future on the guy.   

 

It's different if you're just taking a QB who's available with your pick.   That's what happened with Manuel.   In fact, the Bills traded down and picked up an extra pick.   So the Bills didn't invest a lot to get Manuel, and that's why they were able to be a .500 team even though Manuel didn't work out.   The problem with that route is that a guy you're taking with the 16th or 20th pick probably has about one chance in 8 or 10 to be what you need.   If he's not at the top of the draft he's a longshot.  

 

My argument though Shaw is you are only spending the extra picks you have accumulated you are not creating any extra holes. If the Bills spend a lot of 2019 capital on a trade up I would agree the length of time a bad decision can set you back is certainly a year or two longer. But if all they use is their extra ammunition in this draft then I don't buy the creating other holes argument.