ALF Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 I was shocked when the Bills did not draft Mahomes or Watson without having to trade up. Tre White is a great player if they can land a good QB without trading up.
ghostwriter Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 The top 5 guys are 50/50 and I think that's because they are expected to be the 'guy' and carry a franchise, often with poor rosters. The early 2nd round have a much better success rate than I expected. Is it because they are going to a franchise where they are not expected to carry the franchise and be the 'guy' right away? Or is it because they are going to teams with a better roster around them? Does anybody really think Jimmy Garropolo would be the QB he is today had he went to the Browns and not New England? Having a solid prospect is important but drafting a prospect with a talented team around him is just as equally important to them not busting. I'm not big on expecting a 20 something year old to be a savior, they need to be handled properly. Sit them down behind a professional, build a roster around him and take the pressure off of him. That is just as important as which prospect you draft or where in the draft you take him. 1
PolishDave Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 9 hours ago, reddogblitz said: I have a question about this strategy. If you do that, how are you going to know if any of these guys are really any good before you have to shuffle one off to get the next one? Let's play this out. 2018 - Bills draft QB B in i round 1. He plays. I assume you have a vet and Nasty Nate and QB A. 2019 - Bills draft QB B in round 1. Who plays? Can you really judge QB A on one year? So you dump the vet. Now you have QB A, QB B, and Nasty Nate. 2020 - Bills draft QB C in round 1 QB A has played 2 years so so . QB B has hardly played. Cut Nasty Nate. 2021 - Bills draft QB D in round 1. Now you have cutting one of your first round pick QBs. If you don't hit soon, then you got a bunch of 1st round picks that haven't played much. The rest of your team suffers because all your first round picks go to one position that only 1 can play at a time. The other first rounders are riding the pine. Each QB gets one, maybe 2 years. Can you really judge a guy that fast? I don't know. Could work I suppose. Other teams have come close. Jets and Clowns come to mind. Jets drafted Gino, Petty, and Hackensack in the period of about 5 years and they're still playing rental vet QBs like Fitz and McCown. The draftees have hardly played. Clowns, well they go through QBs like a person with the flu goes through kleenex. 6 hours ago, MJS said: Nope. It takes you at least 3 years to know if you have a good QB or not, so if you take a bunch year after year how do you evaluate them? It's not Madden. You can't see their stats right after the draft. Oh yeah. There's that.
Young34 Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 On 1/13/2018 at 9:03 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said: I calculated three statistics I consider important for QB e v a l: completion percentage, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. My sort criteria were: Greater than 59% completion, Greater than 6.5 YPA, Greater than 1.5 TD/INT (practically speaking, that means if a guy throws 3 TD in a game, he throws 1 and not 2 INTs) Taylor stats for 2017: 14TD/4INT = 3.5:1 TD to INT Completion %: 62.6 YPA: 6.7 By your above criteria, wouldn't that make Tyrod "That Guy"?
Tatonka68 Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 Why even field a QB if they are so hard to find, might as well just play in the wildcat all game.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 16, 2018 Author Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 2:42 PM, Young34 said: Taylor stats for 2017: 14TD/4INT = 3.5:1 TD to INT Completion %: 62.6 YPA: 6.7 On 1/14/2018 at 2:42 PM, Young34 said: By your above criteria, wouldn't that make Tyrod "That Guy"? If we'd drafted him high, it would certainly make him a QB that we or others would still be interested in. (If TT were a 3rd year guy who had started as a rookie and been drafted high, some teams arguably would have more patience because of the above). I considered adding a 4th criteria of YPG, something pretty mild like >220 ypg. I didn't, because I didn't have the data to justify it as a QB criterion with good correlation to team wins and I didnt want to play "massage the data until the QB sort exactly as I think they should sort". But if I had, it would have taken out three quarterbacks. Two of them were Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor. I chose my three criteria as QB stats correlated to team wins, to shed light on the odds of just picking a QB who can play in the NFL, vs an out-and-out bust and they seem to have done that job. Keep in mind what others have alluded to: If we tightened criteria to choose only elite QB, then the odds of finding one plummet. On 1/14/2018 at 2:44 PM, Tatonka68 said: Why even field a QB if they are so hard to find, might as well just play in the wildcat all game. If you could actually win consistently in the NFL playing wildcat all game, I'm sure someone would do it. That's also missing the point of the exercise as I see it, which isn't to say "it's hard, so don't try". As I see it, what the data say are: 1) the draft, even high in the draft, is a percentage, not a certainty, even for experts who make this their job. If we're going to trade up to the top of the draft, mortgaging all other positions, we better be sure. 2) the Bills historical approach over the last 20 years, which is to draft or acquire 1 guy and give him 3 years (without exploring other avenues during that time), is a Fail per the probabilities 3) there's a case to be made that signing a good FA, even at a high price, is a value strategy (again, if the experts are sure) because it spares high draft picks for other positions
BringBackFlutie Posted January 16, 2018 Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/14/2018 at 1:27 AM, reddogblitz said: I have a question about this strategy. If you do that, how are you going to know if any of these guys are really any good before you have to shuffle one off to get the next one? Let's play this out. 2018 - Bills draft QB B in i round 1. He plays. I assume you have a vet and Nasty Nate and QB A. 2019 - Bills draft QB B in round 1. Who plays? Can you really judge QB A on one year? So you dump the vet. Now you have QB A, QB B, and Nasty Nate. 2020 - Bills draft QB C in round 1 QB A has played 2 years so so . QB B has hardly played. Cut Nasty Nate. 2021 - Bills draft QB D in round 1. Now you have cutting one of your first round pick QBs. If you don't hit soon, then you got a bunch of 1st round picks that haven't played much. The rest of your team suffers because all your first round picks go to one position that only 1 can play at a time. The other first rounders are riding the pine. Each QB gets one, maybe 2 years. Can you really judge a guy that fast? I don't know. Could work I suppose. Other teams have come close. Jets and Clowns come to mind. Jets drafted Gino, Petty, and Hackensack in the period of about 5 years and they're still playing rental vet QBs like Fitz and McCown. The draftees have hardly played. Clowns, well they go through QBs like a person with the flu goes through kleenex. QB A plays linebacker. Solved. Next?
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