Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2018 Author Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, BuffaloBillsGospel said: All these charts are stupid, I mean I get the math and formulas but this is what scouts are for, they go to the schools, they talk to coaches/loved ones/ I've even heard they find out people that don't like you and ask them about these players. Identify the correct QB because it's your job and bring him to Buffalo dammit. Nice assessment, Gospel, now please confer your great insight concerning the top 20 threads on this board currently. It's just for fun, bro, if you think it's stupid, show us your wit and wisdom by contributing something you deem smart. If the standard is "don't bother discussing if you're not a professional", this board would go silent fast.
BuffaloBillsGospel Posted January 13, 2018 Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Nice assessment, Gospel, now please confer your great insight concerning the top 20 threads on this board currently. It's just for fun, bro, if you think it's stupid, show us your wit and wisdom by contributing something you deem smart. If the standard is "don't bother discussing if you're not a professional", this board would go silent fast. You started the thread, you should expect a smart ass comment every now and again, I know it's for fun that's why I added my 2 pennies. I don't need charts to know that there is a risk selecting a QB high. How about doing ILB, WR or DE, I'm sure you'd get alot of the same results.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 13, 2018 Author Posted January 13, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said: In general I like the premise of the post and always appreciate effort when a person takes the time to carefully create a thread with some good information and planning. What this information says to me - you’re about as equally likely to secure a great QB beyond the top 5 in all the rest of the Draft combined as you are in the top 5... In my mind that doesn’t mean you trade up, it means you must know within the existing pool beyond the top 5 there are hidden gems. I would take all of those QBs and compile a comprehensive list of all the traits those QBs share in common, narrow down your QB focus to those that possess those specific traits, and see where you land in terms of names and projected round. Count me still on the Rudolph train at 21, but as I’ve said, IF the Bills trade up, it has to be allllllll the way up to 1 or 2.... Thanks for the kind word. I think that's a reasonable take. Another way of looking at it is the results may reflect draft patterns...teams that need a QB, may actually tend to get antsy and trade up if they're sitting in the bottom third of the 1st and they suspect someone above them also covets that player...depending upon what it takes, not a bad value. But "sit tight and do careful scouting" may be the best strategy GIVEN one might not improve the odds too greatly unless you trade all the way up to the first 2 picks. I was motivated to do this by a number of posts with the viewpoint, essentially, going after Cousins would be too costly, but trading up to a top pick would not. I don't know whether or not Cousins would price himself out of our reach but I do know (and this study reinforces) top picks are far from sure bets. So if you do trade up, you better be super sure, because you're gonna need a wad of FA cash to replace the cost-effective players you could otherwise draft and play for 4-5 years with those picks. Edited January 13, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1
PolishDave Posted January 13, 2018 Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Sounds interesting, keep us posted! 1-4 can be derived from the table of data I posted, if you accept my methodology as meaningful. For example, top 10 would be 14/31 or 45% If you PM I'll send you my Excel, and you can add rounds 6 and 7 I don't know of a good way to pull data on UDFA though. Maybe someone here does. So using your criteria and stats posted..... Percentage of times teams found a decent Qb in 1) Top 10 draft picks 45% (teams decided they absolutely MUST have this qb) 2) Round 1 - picks 11-32 18% (teams decided they want the guy but won't trade up hardcore with first picks for him) 3) All round 1 picks combined 34% 4) Rounds 2 and 3 combined 18% (teams think guy might make a franchise QB, but serious question marks) 5) Rounds 4-5 8% (unlikely to become Franchise guy soon but take a shot because he has enough upside chance) Fun interpretation: Based on these odds it makes sense for the Bills to trade down with both of their first round picks so that they have at least 3 first round picks next year. Odds are they get a guy because 34% each guy drafted. Or: Take both first round QB's this year. If you don't hit, take one in the first next year. Or Take one first rounder this year. If you don't hit, take one first rounder next year. If you don't hit there, take one first rounder the following year. Whoever came up with the idea of taking a QB in the first every year until you hit on one is a genius.
Adam727 Posted January 13, 2018 Posted January 13, 2018 Thanks OP for this post. I thought it was really interesting and none of the numbers are really surprising. I think going the FA route for a QB is a legit option this year as there are actually some good QBs available in FA this year which doesn't happen often. I also like PolishDave's post about drafting a QB each year. Realistically you can't draft one high every year, but if they really wanted to, the Bills could draft one in 2018, another one in 2019, and another one in 2021 if the QB drafted in 2018 isn't working out by then. At that point odds are in your favor you will have found your franchise QB. And if you wind up with two, then trade one for picks like the Pats always do. I like that a lot more than giving Losman/Edwards/EJ/next Bills QB 3 years without any sort of back-up plan in place, because then if you're not in the 20% or 50% of teams that drafted the right QB you haven't wasted 3 years and you aren't starting over from scratch afterwards. (If the bills followed this plan the year after drafting Losman they might have wound up with Rodgers) For me, the worst parts of the Bills' playoff drought were watching teams with a QB that I thought it was pretty easy to see would never become a franchse QBs (Trent/EJ especially.) Those years would have been easier to watch if the next guy was already on the team learning and waiting to step in. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Bills keep trading one of their early draft picks for picks in the following draft every year until they have a franchise QB on the roster so that they always have extra draft capital and can move around the draft board as necessary to draft the right QB until they find one. I know spending that much draft capital on the QB position could set the team back in the short term, but I would happily take 2-3 years of 5-11/6-10 football if it meant we have a franchise QB for the next 10-15 years after that..
keepthefaith Posted January 13, 2018 Posted January 13, 2018 6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This has almost become my yearly pre-draft post (like Just Jack's preseason post, only less exciting and more informational) The source is Pro Football Reference Draft Finder, coped into Excel for better slicing and dicing. In previous years, I've used the 'eyeball test', this year I used hard numeric cutoffs. Shout-out to Shady Bills Fan for help with the Excel files. He's a Right Guy! Looking at the first 5 rounds of QB drafted in prev. 20 years (2017 omitted for insufficient data, and didn't go back further due to arguments about rule changes) I calculated three statistics I consider important for QB e v a l: completion percentage, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. My sort criteria were: Greater than 59% completion, Greater than 6.5 YPA, Greater than 1.5 TD/INT (practically speaking, that means if a guy throws 3 TD in a game, he throws 1 and not 2 INTs) Here's what the summarized data look like for success rate in picking a QB who can do these things, by draft round. 1st round broken down further. Bottom line: even at the top of the 1st round, the odds of getting a good QB are something like 50-50. At the bottom of the 1st round, it falls to about 20%, which is the same as the 2nd round. If you play with the criteria a bit, it may rise to 1 out of 3 (30-33%) at the bottom of the 1st round. I'll include the names of the QB these three criteria sorted below, not sure it will be legible: the bottom line is you can nitpick names and cutoffs, but the "song remains the same" overall. Surprises to me: criteria excluded 1st round QB Eli Manning, Cutler, Culpepper, Bridgewater, Campbell. In the later round the surprise exclusion was Schaub (likely be included without his final year). If you add the criterion of averaging >220 ypg, you exclude Kaepernick and Tannehill The data suggest a couple things. Not shown, but with 2 exceptions, all the successful high 1st round QB were pick 1 or 2. Therefore, it may be unwise to mortgage too much of the draft to get to the 1st round 3-5 picks: Go Hard, or stay home. The success rate in picks 6-10 is no higher than the success rate in the 2nd round. It rises from pick 11-20, so if we're going to trade up, trading up a few picks may be the value strategy vs trading up to pick 3-10. After the 3rd round, it's basically throwing darts. This is why letting someone else throw the dart, and trying to pluck the bulls eye off the dartboard is a popular choice. If you start writing a response, "You need to look at this that or the other data or recalculate everything with the moon over the formahaut and X set to Malignify", please save us all time and dial 1-800-Bite-Mee - No seriously, check your personal vals, bro. You're welcome to take and massage the data for yourself. If you message politely I'll even get you my excel file. Interesting info. It would be more relevant if picks by the Bills and Browns were excluded
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: and TD/INT >= 1.5 Dont like it? 1-800....is the number *smooch*. I think it works - it produces a list of QB you can win with given a decent D, includes most QB I think it should, and excludes most QB I think it shouldn't. I highlight the exceptions - most of the surprise exclusions failed on TD/INT. Most of the surprise inclusions have low YPG. Keep in mind I'm using career data so one has to allow for guys who had early bad years then the switch flipped on. But you are welcome to collate the data yourself and slice it any way that pleases you. Im good. You’ve done fine work here. Also tells me you have decent probability outside of the top 5 so do your homework qb scouting staff.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Im good. You’ve done fine work here. Also tells me you have decent probability outside of the top 5 so do your homework qb scouting staff. Yes, I think that was one of the key observations for me - good scouting in the late 1st, 2nd, or 3rd could really pay off 1 hour ago, joesixpack said: So better not try amirite That's not my take-home but I put the data out there - spin it as you wish 1
SDS Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 3 hours ago, PolishDave said: So using your criteria and stats posted..... Percentage of times teams found a decent Qb in 1) Top 10 draft picks 45% (teams decided they absolutely MUST have this qb) 2) Round 1 - picks 11-32 18% (teams decided they want the guy but won't trade up hardcore with first picks for him) 3) All round 1 picks combined 34% 4) Rounds 2 and 3 combined 18% (teams think guy might make a franchise QB, but serious question marks) 5) Rounds 4-5 8% (unlikely to become Franchise guy soon but take a shot because he has enough upside chance) Fun interpretation: Based on these odds it makes sense for the Bills to trade down with both of their first round picks so that they have at least 3 first round picks next year. Odds are they get a guy because 34% each guy drafted. Or: Take both first round QB's this year. If you don't hit, take one in the first next year. Or Take one first rounder this year. If you don't hit, take one first rounder next year. If you don't hit there, take one first rounder the following year. Whoever came up with the idea of taking a QB in the first every year until you hit on one is a genius. Unfortunately, statistics don’t work that way.
Schmuggs Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 Mcdermot and Beane have a plan for the QB position and they will implement it this off- season.... 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Posted January 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, Schmuggs said: Mcdermot and Beane have a plan for the QB position and they will implement it this off- season.... As long as it's not a plan where they lose their hat. Any plan where you lose your hat is a Bad Plan
Tatonka68 Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 So maybe we shouldnt even try right, like the Bills have done the last 17 years. 0% chance to win Super bowl with Tyrod. 2
Wily Dog Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 I think you should draft a QB every year , with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd or possibly the 4th ( think of Dak Prescott). If you hit on one you are golden. If you hit on two You can recoup draft picks up the ying yang.
OldTimer1960 Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 Thank you for this post. It should be brought back every year at draft time. Really good QBs are very hard to find. It isn’t as easy as just trading “whatever it takes to go get your guy”.
SoCal Deek Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 I find it prophetic, hilarious and sad that the Bills First Round Pick falls exactly into the WORST percentage slot on this chart. Now THAT is Billsy!
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 14, 2018 Author Posted January 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Tatonka68 said: So maybe we shouldnt even try right, like the Bills have done the last 17 years. 0% chance to win Super bowl with Tyrod. Tatonka68, I'd like to introduce you to your new BFF Joesixpack. Joesixpack, Tatonka68. You guys have a lot to say to one another, I feel eternally sure
Big Turk Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 (edited) Any list that has Manning, Newton and Vick in the no category is an epic fail IMO Edited January 14, 2018 by matter2003 1
reddogblitz Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 7 hours ago, PolishDave said: Whoever came up with the idea of taking a QB in the first every year until you hit on one is a genius. I have a question about this strategy. If you do that, how are you going to know if any of these guys are really any good before you have to shuffle one off to get the next one? Let's play this out. 2018 - Bills draft QB B in i round 1. He plays. I assume you have a vet and Nasty Nate and QB A. 2019 - Bills draft QB B in round 1. Who plays? Can you really judge QB A on one year? So you dump the vet. Now you have QB A, QB B, and Nasty Nate. 2020 - Bills draft QB C in round 1 QB A has played 2 years so so . QB B has hardly played. Cut Nasty Nate. 2021 - Bills draft QB D in round 1. Now you have cutting one of your first round pick QBs. If you don't hit soon, then you got a bunch of 1st round picks that haven't played much. The rest of your team suffers because all your first round picks go to one position that only 1 can play at a time. The other first rounders are riding the pine. Each QB gets one, maybe 2 years. Can you really judge a guy that fast? I don't know. Could work I suppose. Other teams have come close. Jets and Clowns come to mind. Jets drafted Gino, Petty, and Hackensack in the period of about 5 years and they're still playing rental vet QBs like Fitz and McCown. The draftees have hardly played. Clowns, well they go through QBs like a person with the flu goes through kleenex. 1
MJS Posted January 14, 2018 Posted January 14, 2018 10 hours ago, PolishDave said: So using your criteria and stats posted..... Percentage of times teams found a decent Qb in 1) Top 10 draft picks 45% (teams decided they absolutely MUST have this qb) 2) Round 1 - picks 11-32 18% (teams decided they want the guy but won't trade up hardcore with first picks for him) 3) All round 1 picks combined 34% 4) Rounds 2 and 3 combined 18% (teams think guy might make a franchise QB, but serious question marks) 5) Rounds 4-5 8% (unlikely to become Franchise guy soon but take a shot because he has enough upside chance) Fun interpretation: Based on these odds it makes sense for the Bills to trade down with both of their first round picks so that they have at least 3 first round picks next year. Odds are they get a guy because 34% each guy drafted. Or: Take both first round QB's this year. If you don't hit, take one in the first next year. Or Take one first rounder this year. If you don't hit, take one first rounder next year. If you don't hit there, take one first rounder the following year. Whoever came up with the idea of taking a QB in the first every year until you hit on one is a genius. Nope. It takes you at least 3 years to know if you have a good QB or not, so if you take a bunch year after year how do you evaluate them? It's not Madden. You can't see their stats right after the draft.
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