ddaryl Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 (edited) Pick up a vet and draft a QB Not much to even defend at this point as there is lots of months to hone in on who we could or should draft and what QB's are really left on the table for FA or even trade Edited January 11, 2018 by ddaryl
snafu Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 To me, Cousins is overrated and not worth all the money he'd suck up from the cap. He hasn't elevated the Redskins and he will be hated here if he doesn't bring wins. Better off getting a cheaper FA who's teams have about a .500 career win% and spend the money on upgrading the holes in the roster. Throwing all that money on Cousins seems like a stupid idea for where this team is right now.
BigBuff423 Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 The issue with defending a position related to the QB, is that it also requires the knowledge of which OC will be present - whether it's Dennison or another OC because that determines exactly which QB would best fit the system and need, to some extent. However, based on the current information available and as of right now, January 11th at 8:20 a.m., Dennison is the OC and to that end I make the following proposition: 1. Trade a 4th round pick to KC for Alex Smith and here's why: Alex has a 2018 Cap salary of $17 million, actually LESS than Taylor's salary and the reports of the $20 million Cap hit are misconstrued based on Dead Cap and previous pay outs, take a look at his salary in Spotrac and it's only for one year, with no dead cap after 2018 and no commitments. Additionally his stats for 2017 were: approx. 4,000 yards, 67% completion rate, with 26:5 TD-INT ratio, had a rating of 104.7 and was sacked 35 times. He is NOT the long term answer, but getting Alex Smith who will be 34 when the season starts is just 4 years older than Kirk Cousins, who bill be 30 next season which bridges me to why NOT Cousins - Cousins had approx. 4,000 yards passing, with a 64.3% completion rate, while throwing 27:13 TD-INT ratio, was sacked 41 times and had a rating of 93.9. But, Cousins will cost approximately $26 million over at least 4 years with all kinds of guarantees and Cap hits if he doesn't work out or his age shows based on hits, making it a roughly $9 million difference just next year and you're committed to a 30 year old QB who on the down slope of his prime. 2. Draft your QB of the future - I would wait until 21 and hope Mason Rudolph is there; he has progressed as a 3 year starter by more than 1,200 yards in production from his Sophmore to Senior season, has increased his percentage completion rate by percentage points each season leading to a 65% completion rate as a senior, has gone from 21 to 37 TDs and maintained the same number of INTs, meaning his production has skyrocketed while his mistakes have remained steady. Additionally, he is 6'5", is a Senior, has an NFL arm (despite reports he doesn't - just watch the film), is accurate, relatively poised and has loads of experience. However, if FA plays out with Alex Smith and you're able to get lots of good depth players and a couple good starters by making multiple OTHER trades ala Jerry Hughes, Glenn, etc. then I could also see the Bills trading way up into the top 5 and selling out - IF they were to do that, then I'd say take Rosen since he's got the purest talent, but I would prefer to stay at 21. 3. And of course, I'd also like a 4th arm for camp and a lottery ticket, so I'd take Tyler Bray as well, let him and Peterman duke it out for that 3rd position.
4merper4mer Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 It will be hard to do this without sounding negative, but tbh I just don't think that there are a lot of options that are likely to help the Bills in the short run and I admit I'm not enough of a scout to know what I think of the longer terms prospects. I'll erase Keenum from the equation because I think the Vikes are going to keep him for sure. They'll also keep one of the other two and I'm guessing it will be Bridgewater because of his age and probable loyalty to the franchise that stuck by him after that horrible injury. Bradford is a gigantic "no thanks" as he is hurt more than Tim Connelly. So no Vikes. The next easy elimination to me is trading 400 draft picks and committing 40% of our cap to the most disappointing player in the history of sports. The Colts might not even do it anyway. Let some other team try to convince them. I don't like packaging 900 picks to move up to 1 or 2 at all. Donald literally sucks and Rosen is a question mark that will probably work out but not in 2018. We're not getting them and the trade scenarios I've seen on here are either unrealistically using "draft value chart" numbers to convince people it could be done or overly eager to give away Ricky Williams type trades. I'm not a fan of moving up for a guy going after the top two because I think that will be costly as well. In this case, if the Bills did it I would probably trust Beane and McD after the fact. I don't like Mayfield from what I've seen, but I'm not a scout. Some of the guys on here that have loved Connor Cook, Talleywhacker, Gabbert and Bortles while thinking Cam Newton and D. Watson stink really like him so I'm scared. I don't see getting him for a reasonable price. Staying at 21/22 and taking a guy is something I could like but doubt it will do much for us in 2018. Alex Smith sucks and would be a waste of time, bridge or not. I like TT and respect the work he has put in and his effort here but at this point I agree with those who say he has reached the end of the road. That leaves Cousins and one other wild card that probably won't happen. I was never optimistic on Cousins because even though I don't watch the Skins a lot, I still see him do MANY dumb things after doing some good things. He will also cost $$$$$ restricting us in other areas, but he won't cost us any draft picks so I would say he is a maybe. I think the wild card is the Giants. Could we get Manning as a bridge? Would the cost be cheap enough? If they keep Manning and draft a QB at 2, could we get Davis Webb and live with a crappy guy like Bradford or Smith for a while knowing we have two lottery tickets with Webb and Peterman? I don't see many great options. I'd love it if I thought Peterman could step up but he clearly lacks arm strength to make NFL throws. Brady increased his arm strength and that's about all I remember of guys doing that. It's possible that his increased strength may have involved something Peterman is too ethical to do. My choice would be get Manning as cheap as you can and draft a QB like Rudolph if he is there and you like him. If not, take a flyer on a guy like White or Keane in a later round and see if there is someone there in 2019. You could try this with McCarron too if you really liked him. This seems less than likely to happen so my choice would be to reluctantly pay Cousins. My top avoidances would be Luck and trading everything to move up.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said: "Sucks" is hard to put into words but if you rewatch Bills or Titans vs. Chiefs, it is easy to understand. I'm wondering if the Chiefs made any changes in the last few years other than Smith. I wouldn't say Smith sucks, but there's no question to me that he's not an elite "franchise" QB despite his numbers and the posters here who have asserted (generally without a cogent argument) that he is. To me, Smith is what Tyrod Taylor might grow into with good consistent coaching for several years and a game plan that helps him grow - he could improve dramatically but he's never going to be Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, and he's always going to have that instinct to tuck the ball and scramble instead of standing in to throw - a blessing and a curse. I can remember back when you would read an article about Alex Smith and if you blanked out the names and gave it to a Bills fan today, they'd say "it's about Taylor, right?" As far as Chiefs changes - mostly for the good, or thought to be neutral. The Chiefs lost their OC Doug Pederson to be Eagles HC after 2015, but they already had Nagy and Childress on board as assistants. Statistically, this has been their best year on offense. They acquired Hill in 2016 and Hunt this year, so they've added weapons. Where the Chiefs have dropped off this year talent-wise is on defense, largely due to injuries. I will say that right after the game someone (was it the Chin? Cowher?) was highly critical of Andy Reid, saying bluntly "he is not the guy to get you deep into the playoffs". Of course, once upon a time in the late 90's, early 2000's, that was said of Cowher, if that's who it was.
papazoid Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 bills are projected $38 mil under cap next season.....will be $60 mil after cuts. #1- over pay in free agency to get QB #2- keep all your draft picks and remaining $30 mil to fix other holes.
NewEraBills Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 11 hours ago, JMF2006 said: Trade for Alex Smith a 3rd should do it. Draft the BQBA at 21 and trade down with 22 to get 2 or 3 more picks if there are any takers. 4th and a conditional in the 2020 draft. I wouldn't give up the 3rd. That's a good player (draft) in the trenches or in the secondary. Or even at HB or WR this year.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, racketmaster said: Am I missing something here. Don’t the Bills already have something similar to that (Smith) in Taylor. They have something similar to what Smith was 2009-2010 ish (only with less picks and better wheels). The question is, is Dennison Taylor's Harbaugh and can he take a step to work better in Dennison's system, or not? 13 minutes ago, papazoid said: bills are projected $38 mil under cap next season.....will be $60 mil after cuts. #1- over pay in free agency to get QB #2- keep all your draft picks and remaining $30 mil to fix other holes. Who are you cutting to get to $60?
Harryhood280 Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 9 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: What makes you think that Smith will be cheaper than Cousins? Smith is 33, and not that good. If he hadn’t had MVP chatter early in the season I think he’s available for a conditional 3rd or 4th. Today, it will probably take a 2nd and Glenn. Meh. Cousins is 29, and is good. He’s a Free Agent. He will almost surely sign the richest contract in NFL history.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: They have something similar to what Smith was 2009-2010 ish (only with less picks and better wheels). The question is, is Dennison Taylor's Harbaugh and can he take a step to work better in Dennison's system, or not? Smith and Taylor's overall production was actually incredibly comparable in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Just this year Smith stepped up and Tyrod stepped back.
MrEpsYtown Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 I'm going Alex Smith, and a trade up for Rosen/Darnold. We have tried a lot of different things over the past fifteen years to try and get a QB. The one thing that we haven't tried is a bold trade up for an elite prospect. I think now is the time for that move. I think a trade up with the Giants can definitely happen. What they need more than anything is a offensive line. At 21 and 22 the Giants could grab the best LT available like McGlinchey or Connor Williams and get a guy like Billy Price. That instantly takes them to playoff contenders again and lengthens Eli's career. They could also ask for Cordy Glenn in trade scenarios. The Beane-Gettleman connection certainly helps. I think, just cap space wise, Kirk Cousins goes to the Browns or the Jets. Teams like us, Jacksonville, Denver, Arizona are simply not able to afford him. The Browns and Jets have enough cap space to sign him without blowing up their entire team. We can't afford Cousins, and even if we could we are in competition with people who have way more money under the cap. Finally, if you sign the 30 year old Cousins, he isn't a bridge, he is your guy, which solidifies the position for 5 years or so. Then we are looking again for a long term answer. Drew Brees is a huge wildcard, but I don't see him leaving New Orleans. If he did he'd go to a dome like Minnesota or Arizona. Here's a guess on how things play out in QB carousel 2018: Browns - AJ McCarron - I think they get it done this time by trying something different than drafting a young guy. They have tried to draft guys and it hasn't worked. Get AJ and use your two top picks to get Barkley and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Or use one of those picks to trade down. I think they like Kizer as a developmental guy. Jets - Cousins - They have a ton of Cap and if I'm Cousins I'd pick NY over Cleveland. Bowles has a chance here with his mini contract extension. Drafting a guy high guarantees he won't be the head coach when that guy is ready. I think they go veteran as Cousins can save his career. It makes zero sense for this coach and GM to go with a rookie QB. Vikings - Keenum - I think they would be crazy to let him walk after this year. I think they should keep Bridgewater, but I think they have to keep Keenum. Redskins - Bradford - He's a good fit for what Jay Gruden does. I think they draft a guy this year. I'm going Mason Rudolph here. Broncos - I think they will make a play for Cousins. They are also a great fit for Alex Smith. KC will not trade him in the division in my opinion. To me the Broncos wind up with Jay Cutler or something like Nick Foles, Josh McCown and draft a young guy. I'm guessing Josh Allen. Seems like what Elway would want. Cardinals - Can't really say until they hire their coach, but I'm going Teddy Bridgewater. He's 25 years old and a great fit in a dome. This allows you to use your first round pick on something else. Jags - I think they are our biggest competitor for Alex Smith. I could see them making a play for Josh McCown if the Jets sign Cousins. Bortles should be out and I'm assuming Marrone will want a veteran. I could see them making a play for Bradford as well. If this scenario plays out, we'd be left with Alex Smith and would just have to get things done in the draft. I do think that Andy Reid gives the Bills a slight discount on an Alex Smith trade. They need to move him because he has a 20 million dollar cap hit. They also clearly want to move on to Mahomes and are looking for an excuse to do so. You just need to offer them something respectable like a 3rd rounder or two. In my opinion, they will not cut him for fear that he will go to the Broncos in their division. The Bills biggest competition would probably be the Jags or Redskins.
sjjr Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 There are probably 2 potential franchise QBs in this draft that will go very early and almost impossible for the Bills to get to. There are a few more that can be drafted later but all will have risks and must be developed in the right situation to have chances. The Bills can probably look at guys like Cousins, Alex Smith or McCarron in free agency/trade that wouldn't be too expensive. They all can play winning football supported by a strong running game and good defense. Most likely would be Alex Smith because he's been successful at not turning the ball and using a short passing game to players with similar skills sets to what the Bills currently have. He'd also probably come cheapest because the Chiefs probably need to move him and McDermott has a good relationship with Reid it seems. If none of those three are viable then can't rule out keeping Tyrod. Have to keep developing Peterman and see if there isn't another developmental prospect they could look at in the draft (Mayfield, Rudolph, Linehan). This draft can be about improving the offensive and defensive lines along with getting depth at RB. Might also have to look at a new MLB that will lead the D going forward if Brown isn't re-signed.
papazoid Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Who are you cutting to get to $60? lots of options.... Tyrod for starters. he's currently on the books for $18 million 2018. that's not happening. save $15-16 mil by moving on. kelvin Benjamin $8 mil Richie $6mil Lo Alexander $3mil mills, ducasse, DeMarco, holmes, Washington = $5mil (that gets you to $75 mil under the cap) If the Bills are committed to moving on — and by all appearances they are — they will try to trade Taylor first before cutting him. He took a pay cut before the start of the season and now has only $1 million guaranteed next year with another $6 million due on the third day of the 2018 league year, which essentially becomes the Bills’ deadline for moving on from him. His salary cap hit for 2018 is $18.08 million. The Bills would take a $3 million cap hit by cutting him and a $2 million hit by trading him. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/09/bills-have-decisions-to-make-on-rick-dennison-tyrod-taylor/
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, papazoid said: lots of options.... Tyrod for starters. he's currently on the books for $18 million 2018. that's not happening. save $15-16 mil by moving on. kelvin Benjamin $8 mil Richie $6mil Lo Alexander $3mil mills, ducasse, DeMarco, holmes, Washington = $5mil (that gets you to $75 mil under the cap) If the Bills are committed to moving on — and by all appearances they are — they will try to trade Taylor first before cutting him. He took a pay cut before the start of the season and now has only $1 million guaranteed next year with another $6 million due on the third day of the 2018 league year, which essentially becomes the Bills’ deadline for moving on from him. His salary cap hit for 2018 is $18.08 million. The Bills would take a $3 million cap hit by cutting him and a $2 million hit by trading him. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/09/bills-have-decisions-to-make-on-rick-dennison-tyrod-taylor/ If Tyrod isn't on the roster, his dead cap hit is roughly $8.7M. The most we can save there is $10M and that's if we trade him. Cutting him save closer to $9.5M.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, papazoid said: lots of options.... Tyrod for starters. he's currently on the books for $18 million 2018. that's not happening. save $15-16 mil by moving on. kelvin Benjamin $8 mil Richie $6mil Lo Alexander $3mil mills, ducasse, DeMarco, holmes, Washington = $5mil (that gets you to $75 mil under the cap) If the Bills are committed to moving on — and by all appearances they are — they will try to trade Taylor first before cutting him. He took a pay cut before the start of the season and now has only $1 million guaranteed next year with another $6 million due on the third day of the 2018 league year, which essentially becomes the Bills’ deadline for moving on from him. His salary cap hit for 2018 is $18.08 million. The Bills would take a $3 million cap hit by cutting him and a $2 million hit by trading him. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/09/bills-have-decisions-to-make-on-rick-dennison-tyrod-taylor/ Pap, I think you may be doing your math a bit wrong. Take Tyrod: He's got a cap figure of $18.3M this year. You subtract his dead cap of $8.64M to get the savings if he's cut of $9.6M. So $10M this year, not $15-16M. Similar down the line - cutting Cog saves $5M not $6M. Cutting Holmes saves you $.65M once dead cap is subtracted. Etc etc. Overthecap is easier to work with than Spotrac for this, but it seems to be non-responsive a lot these days (probably just for that reason, lots of fans doing cap math). You can cut players like Mills, Alexander, Ducasse, and Washington, but they're none of them very costly players, not much more than vet minimum. You can't replace them all with draftees, so the cost of replacing them is very likely close to a wash on the $3.8M you actually save. Cutting Benjamin after just trading a draft pick for him would be a major waste, especially as if healthy, he's the best WR we've got at a position that needs major upgrades. You'll spend as much or more to replace him, and you won't get the pick returned. Bottom line, cutting a few high-priced players like Taylor, Hughes, and Cog may get you up to $50M cap, but $60M is not too likely 1
CuddyDark Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 Draft a Rookie, 1st round. Keep Peterman at #2. Sign a vet or keep TT until rookie is ready.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 Here is my manifesto. The goal is risk management and fiscal responsibility. 1) Attempt to re negotiate a deal with Tyrod that retains him as a safety net but avoids a major cap hit if they are able to immediately upgrade by season opener (I’m not counting whoever they draft). If not he s cut 2) trade for or pick up in free agency a veteran QB who has potential but was behind an entrenched starter. (There is another Jimmy G somewhere out there) AJ mcc, Keenum, etc... 3) draft a legimate prospect to groom prioritizing quick release, ability to process pre snap reads and burning competitive desire.... that maybe lost draft status because of a bad college program or other. This should be in the 10th overall to 40th overall range 4) do not chase a topped out high priced free agent like Alex and DO not under any circumstances chase overpriced underperforming potential FA like cousins, who will mire the franchise in mediocrity and cap trouble for seasons to come.
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 I think I've been pretty consistent. I am not on board with picking up an mediocre schlub when we already have Tyrod. I have a pipe dream of waving our two firsts this year and our first next year in Irsay's face for Luck, but I doubt that will happen. Instead, I expect things will follow this path: A) Tyrod stays on contract through opening FA (We don't waste picks and money on another bridge guy) B) The Bills scour the rookie QB class this offseason (I think this is inevitable. You should always do this) C) On draft day, the Bills pick who they think is the best long term starter, likely trading multiple picks to move up in the 1st. The words "Day One ready" do not need to apply (We have a current starter under contract. Not one without problems, but there is no sense in rushing a product you know is not ready) D) Evaluate the rookie during OTA's. If he absolutely blows you away, cut Tyrod post June 1st to help with the cap. If not, proceed to E E) Training Camp: Make it a true open competition. If our rookie wins, great, cut Tyrod, pick up a cheap vet backup. From what I hear from half the posters here, a wet dish rag can beat out Tyrod If he can't win the spot, Tyrod opens this year. F) Evaluate during the season. If the rookie shows he is ready or Tyrod has a huge skid, bench Taylor and start the rookie G) In 2019 Tyrod's contract is done either way. You have a rookie who is either a bust and we redraft, or we have an heir apparent. H) Trust the Process. 1
frostbitmic Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 1. Make Jimmy Garoppolo an offer he can't refuse. I believe he's a free agent. 2. Tradea 2nd and what we got for Dareus to the Chiefs for Alex Smith. Draft Baker Mayfield at 22. 3. If #1 and #2 don't work out then sign Bradford for two years without over paying and draft Baker Mayfield. Have one Okie QB teaching the ropes to another Okie QB. 4. Draft a QB in the first and let him Peterman and any veteran QB fight it out in preseason.
section122 Posted January 11, 2018 Posted January 11, 2018 Draft a guy in the first. Draft a later round guy and have him compete with Peterman for the 3rd string/developmental spot. (I have no doubt Peterman would make it to the ps if they cut him in preseason potentially allowing 4 qbs on the roster). Keep Tyrod until that first round pick beats him out. It might be in training camp, it might be a few weeks into the season, it might be 2019. My defense: There is no reason to not try and improve the qb position. There is also no reason to make the team worse at qb. So Tyrod has proven he can win behind center and the team can continue to be competitive until the rookie is ready to take over the position. This seems like a win win for the team. If the lights come on for Tyrod (yes a very longshot) great, if not the Bills have an actual alternative (not a 5th round hope and prayer). After next year Tyrod can find a new team, the Bills will have no dead money from him, and hopefully be set with their franchise guy for the next 10-15 years! Piece of cake! 1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: I think I've been pretty consistent. I am not on board with picking up an mediocre schlub when we already have Tyrod. I have a pipe dream of waving our two firsts this year and our first next year in Irsay's face for Luck, but I doubt that will happen. Instead, I expect things will follow this path: A) Tyrod stays on contract through opening FA (We don't waste picks and money on another bridge guy) B) The Bills scour the rookie QB class this offseason (I think this is inevitable. You should always do this) C) On draft day, the Bills pick who they think is the best long term starter, likely trading multiple picks to move up in the 1st. The words "Day One ready" do not need to apply (We have a current starter under contract. Not one without problems, but there is no sense in rushing a product you know is not ready) D) Evaluate the rookie during OTA's. If he absolutely blows you away, cut Tyrod post June 1st to help with the cap. If not, proceed to E E) Training Camp: Make it a true open competition. If our rookie wins, great, cut Tyrod, pick up a cheap vet backup. From what I hear from half the posters here, a wet dish rag can beat out Tyrod If he can't win the spot, Tyrod opens this year. F) Evaluate during the season. If the rookie shows he is ready or Tyrod has a huge skid, bench Taylor and start the rookie G) In 2019 Tyrod's contract is done either way. You have a rookie who is either a bust and we redraft, or we have an heir apparent. H) Trust the Process. You could have saved me a lot of typing if you had posted 5 minutes earlier!!! This plan is excellent!!!
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