Predict the 2018 OC/Rookie QB combo

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

I did not realize that Canada was available. I'd like him a lot. A bright, creative, innovative guy is not a bad way to go. Look at the Rams. 

As far as QBs go my guess is that Beane likes Josh Allen. Why? Because he was Director of Player personnel in Carolina when they picked another circa 6'5" 235 pound QB who could run like the wind and had a very strong arm. There were lots of questions surrounding Cam's ability to transition successfully to the NFL passing game (some might say there still is lol). He couldn't throw a shallow out at the Combine but the Panthers were confident that he could develop and they were right. Some folks also question Allen's accuracy but the funny thing is it's the "easy" throws that he needs to work on. His long ball accuracy is considered very good. When Beane says he does not want a scheme specific QB I think he's signaling his preference for a prototypical big boy pocket passer. If the guy is mobile that's a plus for sure. I think Allen goes to Arizona or Denver. They may have to move up to get him.

 

Comparing Cam Newton to Josh Allen makes me want to puke.

 

Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit, Heisman Trophy Winner who dominated College Football. He put a mediocre Auburn team on his back and carried them to a National Title.

 

Josh Allen was a nobody coming out of highschool, and just an average QB in the Mountain West Conference. He can throw the ball a mile, and run fast, but he's not a very good football player and he's shown hardly anything that suggests he makes the players around him better.

 

A much better Josh Allen comparison would be EJ Manuel. Same size, same arm, same mobility, same accuracy problems, same reputation for  being a mediocre college QB who couldn't elevate his team. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by jrober38

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Comparing Cam Newton to Josh Allen makes me want to puke.

 

Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit, Heisman Trophy Winner who dominated College Football. He put a mediocre Auburn team on his back and carried them to a National Title.

 

Josh Allen was a nobody coming out of highschool, and just an average QB in the Mountain West Conference. He can throw the ball a mile, and run fast, but he's not a very good football player and he's shown hardly anything that suggests he makes the players around him better.

 

A much better Josh Allen comparison would be EJ Manuel. Same size, same arm, same accuracy problems, same reputation of being a mediocre college QB who couldn't elevate his team. 

This Manuel/Allen narrative you keep pitching is a stretch.

[jrober38]

Just now, N.Y. Orangeman said:

This Manuel/Allen narrative you keep pitching is a stretch.

 

Why?

 

Lay out each guys pros and cons coming out of college. They're identical. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by jrober38

[Starr Almighty]

22 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Please stop using college stats. They're completely irrelevant when projecting QBs to the NFL. 

I know that but I don't see how hes inaccurate. The point was TT isnt and if someone throws 60 more attempts they shouldn't have a higher completion % if they are inaccurate as well. I'm asking because I have only seem him play a handful of times and thought someone could explain.

[BrooklynBills]

OC: McCoy

QB: Rosen(trade up with Giants)

 

 

[jrober38]

Just now, Starr Almighty said:

I know that but I don't see how hes inaccurate. The point was TT isnt and if someone throws 60 more attempts they shouldn't have a higher completion % if they are inaccurate as well. I'm asking because I have only seem him play a handful of times and thought someone could explain.

 

It's the offense he plays in and the fact that they throw a ton of wide receiver screens that inflate his completion percentage, as is the case with most raw spread offense QBs whose accuracy deteriorates as they throw farther down the field. 

 

Every scouting report I've read about Rudolph questions his accuracy and ball placement. It says both are inconsistent, and each report also questions his arm strength as only being average.

 

In my eyes there is nothing elite about Rudolph, and his inconsistent accuracy and limited arm tell me he's probably a guy with a really low NFL ceiling. 

[BrooklynBills]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I do not think Lamar Jackson fits their player profile or QB profile but he’s projected to go in the 1st so i included him. 

 

Another OC who is available is Matt Canada from LSU. He was Peterman’s OC at Pitt. It’s a bit out of the box. But he’s creative and highly thought of. I don’t think it worked out with Orgeron but it wasn’t from an Xs and Os basis from what i hear. 

Canada strikes me as a guy who would need to get into the NFL as a positional coach before he would get an OC job. If we hired an OC who experience with QB development(a la McCoy, Bevell), I would like bringing him in to coach QBs.

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

Canada strikes me as a guy who would need to get into the NFL as a positional coach before he would get an OC job. If we hired an OC who experience with QB development(a la McCoy, Bevell), I would like bringing him in to coach QBs.

He’s a guy who I think is going to want to get a College HC job somewhere maybe at a smaller program. He seems to want a lot of power and not be overridden by the HC (Orgeron poured a gallon of vanilla into his offense and it didn’t go well). He’s bounced around a lot. But, he’s very good imo at designing offense to fit the strengths of the players.

Edited January 10, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

No, but I assume they're a lot of the things Rudolph doesn't possess.

• doesn't have any experience going through progressions

 

I think that is true and not true at the same time.  The biggest concern I think on Rudolph is the offense he comes from.  It is a very simple offense, with a small playbook and they beat you with tempo rather than complexity in the passing game.  But Rudolph does know his progressions in that simplified offense.  He gets through them frequently.  The question is whether he can translate that to a complex playbook with receivers with a full route tree and having to understand how the protections and the routes govern the progressions.  I think Rudolph is a guy for whom the interview process is massive. You want to decipher how well he actually understands his progressions or whether he simply remembers them, because that will give you real insight into his ability to pick up an NFL playbook and digest it.  

 

I think he is a lot better than Bryce Petty though.  He is more accurate, his footwork is better and he has improved year on year through his collegiate career whereas Petty went backwards when teams got film on him and adjusted.  

[starrymessenger]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Comparing Cam Newton to Josh Allen makes me want to puke.

 

Cam Newton was a 5 star recruit, Heisman Trophy Winner who dominated College Football. He put a mediocre Auburn team on his back and carried them to a National Title.

 

Josh Allen was a nobody coming out of highschool, and just an average QB in the Mountain West Conference. He can throw the ball a mile, and run fast, but he's not a very good football player and he's shown hardly anything that suggests he makes the players around him better.

 

A much better Josh Allen comparison would be EJ Manuel. Same size, same arm, same accuracy problems, same reputation of being a mediocre college QB who couldn't elevate his team. 

 

Comparing Josh Allen to EJ Manuel makes me want to puke. Yes EJ was a big guy and he was athletic for his size. But Allen's athleticism is in a different dimension altogether. EJ was always an innacurate passer, even at FSU. Maybe you should revisit Bud Elliot's pre-draft assessment of EJ in Tomahalk Nation. It was 1000% spot on. I wish Whaley had taken the time to read it. EJ was part of the worst QB class in memory. My guess is that only one GM was deluded enuf to take him in the first round. The Patriots had him graded as a fifth round pick under the caption "athlete". 

EJ was an innacurate passer. In fact he could not hit the broad side of a barn. Allen is not "innacurate" in the same way. He often displays excellent accuracy, especially when making the more difficult throws. He needs to work on touch and the short passing game (the "easier" throws). Allen is inconsistent with his accuracy, like Cam was. That leads many to think that his issues are mechanical and will improve with coaching. A lot like Cam. 

Allen is 21 years old. True he was a nobody coming out of high school. He couldn't land a gig at a big football factory. But the guys who run the big college programs who passed on him are for sure kicking themselves now. Allen's 2017 team had basically no good skill position players (except him of course). Whatever they were able to accomplish was very much because of him. I would love to see how Sam Darnold would have made out with the team Allen played on. And actually Darnold and Allen are similar prospects except that Allen actually has a higher ceiling. What scouts see is that his throwing mechanics are much better than Darnold's. No wasted motion, basically straight over the top. And y'know that's why these two players will come off the board at or near the top of the draft (in spite of what you may think).

Back in the BBMB days I remember you being a diehard defender of EJ's accuracy when it was clear to anyone who was not blind that he had none. You were also the first guy on - wait for it - the Geno Smith train. Remember that. Choo choo!!! As a judge of QBs you have no credibility. 

You should follow your own advice in this thread regarding box scores and college stats.

[SaviorPeterman]

QB is easy since all signs point to NP.

 

OC is the wildcard but still wondering if Dennison survives given what he had to work with in a very limited back up type of QB like TT.

[BrooklynBills]

14 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He’s a guy who I think is going to want to get a College HC job somewhere maybe at a smaller program. He seems to want a lot of power and not be overridden by the HC (Orgeron poured a gallon of vanilla into his offense and it didn’t go well). He’s bounced around a lot. But, he’s very good imo at designing offense to fit the strengths of the players.

He's never coached in the NFL though. Don't anyone is going to give him an offense without him at least working in the NFL in some capacity. 

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, BrooklynBills said:

He's never coached in the NFL though. Don't anyone is going to give him an offense without him at least working in the NFL in some capacity. 

That’s why i said he’s out of the box. I don’t actually think he’s going to the nfl at all if I had to bet, but you may be right that he would need to start at position coach if he did. Unless he has some great connection with a HC somewhere.

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Comparing Josh Allen to EJ Manuel makes me want to puke. Yes EJ was a big guy and he was athletic for his size. But Allen's athleticism is in a different dimension altogether. EJ was always an innacurate passer, even at FSU. Maybe you should revisit Bud Elliot's pre-draft assessment of EJ in Tomahalk Nation. It was 1000% spot on. I wish Whaley had taken the time to read it. EJ was part of the worst QB class in memory. My guess is that only one GM was deluded enuf to take him in the first round. The Patriots had him graded as a fifth round pick under the caption "athlete". 

EJ was an innacurate passer. In fact he could not hit the broad side of a barn. Allen is not "innacurate" in the same way. He often displays excellent accuracy, especially when making the more difficult throws. He needs to work on touch and the short passing game (the "easier" throws). Allen is inconsistent with his accuracy, like Cam was. That leads many to think that his issues are mechanical and will improve with coaching. A lot like Cam. 

Allen is 21 years old. True he was a nobody coming out of high school. He couldn't land a gig at a big football factory. But the guys who run the big college programs who passed on him are for sure kicking themselves now. Allen's 2017 team had basically no good skill position players (except him of course). Whatever they were able to accomplish was very much because of him. I would love to see how Sam Darnold would have made out with the team Allen played on. And actually Darnold and Allen are similar prospects except that Allen actually has a higher ceiling. What scouts see is that his throwing mechanics are much better than Darnold's. No wasted motion, basically straight over the top. And y'know that's why these two players will come off the board at or near the top of the draft (in spite of what you may think).

Back in the BBMB days I remember you being a diehard defender of EJ's accuracy when it was clear to anyone who was not blind that he had none. You were also the first guy on - wait for it - the Geno Smith train. Remember that. Choo choo!!! As a judge of QBs you have no credibility. 

You should follow your own advice in this thread regarding box scores and college stats.

 

Well you remember wrong. Geno Smith? Ummmmmmm, what? I hated that guy as a prospect. I was maybe the biggest EJ Manuel critic on the whole board. I spent years arguing with his fans that he was one of the worst QBs in the league. I think I even suggested at one point he should take the Logan Thomas route and give it a try at Tight End. 

 

My reputation over there was as an overly critical judge of QBs, and I was usually right. I hated Matt Barkley, I hated Blake Bortles, I hated Blaine Gabbert, I really hated Jimmy Clausen. All were popular Bills targets among Bills fans and I spent most of my time arguing with people about how terrible they all were. 

 

And I don't buy the lack of a supporting cast argument considering he played mostly teams with zero talent themselves. 

 

I don't see it with Allen. All I see is a guy who can only throw bullets, who lacks touch and struggles with short passes (the overwhelming majority of NFL throws are under 10 yards). I think his upside is Ryan Tannehill and his downside is EJ Manuel.

 

I don't care how big he is. I don't care how fast he is. I don't care that he can probably throw a football 80 yards. I don't see a guy who can "pass" the football the same way quality NFL QBs can. He's a thrower who only has one speed, who didn't even come close to dominating the competition he faced. 

 

Drafting guys solely based off their physical traits rarely works out in the NFL. It's really hard to find a good QB at the NFL level, and I'm not betting the farm on a guy like Allen when so many guys like him in the past were complete busts.

Edited January 10, 2018 by jrober38

[YoloinOhio]

12 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

QB is easy since all signs point to NP.

 

OC is the wildcard but still wondering if Dennison survives given what he had to work with in a very limited back up type of QB like TT.

Edited January 10, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[starrymessenger]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Well you remember wrong. Geno Smith? Ummmmmmm, what? I hated that guy as a prospect. I was maybe the biggest EJ Manuel critic on the whole board. I spent years arguing with his fans that he was one of the worst QBs in the league. I think I even suggested at one point he should take the Logan Thomas route and give it a try at Tight End. 

 

And I don't buy the lack of a supporting cast argument considering he played mostly teams with zero talent themselves. 

 

I don't see it with Allen. All I see is a guy who can only throw bullets, who lacks touch and struggles with short passes (the overwhelming majority of NFL throws are under 10 yards). I think his upside is Ryan Tannehill and his downside is EJ Manuel.

 

I don't care how big he is. I don't care how fast he is. I don't care that he can probably throw a football 80 yards. I don't see a guy who can "pass" the football the same way quality NFL QBs can. He's a thrower who only has one speed, who didn't even come close to dominating the competition he faced. 

 

Drafting guys solely based off their physical traits rarely works out in the NFL. It's really hard to find a good QB at the NFL level, and I'm not betting the farm on a guy like Allen when so many guys like him in the past were complete busts.

 

You were a diehard defender of EJs accuracy - until you turned on him. You were the first poster on the GS train - until you had to disembark. I'm sure I'm not the only one here who remembers even if you have forgotten.

Allen will not be drafted high only on the basis of his athleticism. He has great intangibles. Of course the landscape is littered wth athletes who did not develop as QBs. EJ is an example. But there are also guys who came up displaying elite characteristics who panned out pretty well. Big Ben. John Elway (closest to Allen) as a QB type. Many thought Cam would bust. League MVP instead. The folks who do this for a business will be taking Allen of the board very early. It's not because they are clueless and don't know what they are doing.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't see it with Allen. All I see is a guy who can only throw bullets, who lacks touch and struggles with short passes (the overwhelming majority of NFL throws are under 10 yards). I think his upside is Ryan Tannehill and his downside is EJ Manuel.

 

I agree 100% with you on Allen.  

[Dr. Who]

If we are going qb in the draft, we need to trade up for Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield.  The first two may be prohibitively expensive.

[jrober38]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

 

You were a diehard defender of EJs accuracy - until you turned on him. You were the first poster on the GS train - until you had to disembark. I'm sure I'm not the only one here who remembers even if you have forgotten.

Allen will not be drafted high only on the basis of his athleticism. He has great intangibles. Of course the landscape is littered wth athletes who did not develop as QBs. EJ is an example. But there are also guys who came up displaying elite characteristics who panned out pretty well. Big Ben. John Elway (closest to Allen) as a QB type. Many thought Cam would bust. League MVP instead. The folks who do this for a business will be taking Allen of the board very early. It's not because they are clueless and don't know what they are doing.

 

This simply isn't true about my past.

 

And for each guy you name, there are many more like them who didn't work.

 

• Paxton Lynch - great athlete, terrible QB.
• Christian Hackenberg - great athlete, great intangibles, terrible QB. 
• EJ Manuel - great athlete, great intangibles, terrible QB.
• Blaine Gabbert - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Tim Tebow - great athlete, great intangibles, terrible QB. 
• Josh Freeman - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Jake Locker - great athlete, great intangibles, terrible QB.
• Jamarcus Russell - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• JP Losman - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Vince Young - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Jason Campbell - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Kyle Boller - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• David Carr - great athlete, terrible QB. 
• Tim Couch - great athlete, terrible QB.
• Akili Smith - great athlete, terrible QB. 

You get the idea.

 

Newton and Allen are nothing alike. One is a quality football player who carried a team through a tough SEC schedule to a National Title, and the other was just a mediocre QB in a subpar conference. 

[BrooklynBills]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Well you remember wrong. I was maybe the biggest EJ Manuel critic on the whole board. I spent years arguing with his fans that he was one of the worst QBs in the league. I think I even suggested at one point he should take the Logan Thomas route and give it a try at Tight End. 

 

And I don't buy the lack of a supporting cast argument considering he played mostly teams with zero talent themselves. 

 

I don't see it with Allen. All I see is a guy who can only throw bullets, who lacks touch and struggles with short passes (the overwhelming majority of NFL throws are under 10 yards). I think his upside is Ryan Tannehill and his downside is EJ Manuel.

 

I don't care how big he is. I don't care how fast he is. I don't care that he can probably throw a football 80 yards. I don't see a guy who can "pass" the football the same way quality NFL QBs can. He's a thrower who only has one speed, who didn't even come close to dominating the competition he faced. 

 

Drafting guys solely based off their physical traits rarely works out in the NFL. It's really hard to find a good QB at the NFL level, and I'm not betting the farm on a guy like Allen when so many guys like him in the past were complete busts.

 

Allen is an interesting case study because of his background.  Alot of the modern collegiate scouting, especially at QB, is based heavily on attending QB development camps and the 7v7 camps. They act as a mini combine for the collegiate scouts(and its also how so many of these talented true freshman are able to step in and play immediately).  Allen did attend or seek out these camps. He played 3 sports in high school when most kids trying to get a collegiate scholarship begin specializing as early as their freshman year of HS.  He was only 6'3 180lbs when he graduated HS.

 

He's truly a throwback type prospect and late bloomer.  If he played in the PAC10 or BiG12 the production would be there with the other guys. Not a single other player on his team is an NFL prospect.