UPDATED: 44 Games with Tyrod at QB - % breakdown

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Figster said:

Yes winning is a team stat and this current Buffalo Bills football team won 9 games and earned its 1st playoff game in 17 years and not because of a boatload of talent. The Bills finally did what had become the impossible with hard work, dedication and good character.

 

Tyrod Taylor exemplifies what makes this team play the way it does and accomplish the things they do in my humble opinion.

I agree on his intangibles.

 

That doesn't make him a good passer. He's a decent QB, but the Bills need a great one to be a consistent contender.

[twoandfourteen]

5 minutes ago, Figster said:

Yes winning is a team stat and this current Buffalo Bills football team won 9 games and earned its 1st playoff game in 17 years and not because of a boatload of talent. The Bills finally did what had become the impossible with hard work, dedication and good character.

 

Tyrod Taylor exemplifies what makes this team play the way it does and accomplish the things they do in my humble opinion.

 

All very true. The guy is an excellent example of what you would want in a professional athlete. Works hard, great teammate, great citizen... couldn't ask for more. 

 

Except when it comes to actually performing the requirements of his job on the field. There, he is severely lacking in just about every capacity. 

 

 

[Figster]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

I agree on his intangibles.

 

That doesn't make him a good passer. He's a decent QB, but the Bills need a great one to be a consistent contender.

I agree GOAT on not Taylor not being where  we as Bills fans want him to be as a passer, but through hard work and dedication Tyrod Taylor is going to continue to improve his game in my humble opinion.

 

  

[Bangarang]

11 hours ago, jr1 said:

Tyrod has a better career winning percentage than Cousins 

 

Not quite as good as Tebow’s though ?

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

All very true. The guy is an excellent example of what you would want in a professional athlete. Works hard, great teammate, great citizen... couldn't ask for more. 

 

Except when it comes to actually performing the requirements of his job on the field. There, he is severely lacking in just about every capacity. 

 

 

thanks for the reply,

 

Question, do you think Sammy Watkins could have helped Buffalo advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs?

 

Or how about this, a TE like Gronk?

 

Myself personally, I think we might be able to beat the Pats with a TE like Gronk.( Taylor behind center)

Edited January 10, 2018 by Figster

[twoandfourteen]

38 minutes ago, Figster said:

thanks for the reply,

 

Question, do you think Sammy Watkins could have helped Buffalo advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs?

 

Or how about this, a TE like Gronk?

 

Myself personally, I think we might be able to beat the Pats with a TE like Gronk.( Taylor behind center)

 

Nope, not really. To me, it doesn't matter who the receivers are when the QB responsible for delivering the ball just can't do it. 

 

Gronkowski's greatest strength is his ability to out-muscle any defensive player for the ball. Brady throws it to him whether he's covered or not. Taylor just refuses to do that. 

 

As an aside, I've sometimes wondered what would have become of Gronkowski had the Bills drafted him. I think he probably would have had a couple of meh-to-decent seasons, left in FA, and most likely gone on to have a decent, if not unspectacular, career. Certainly not the all-world, all-time great he became with TB12 throwing at him. Well, unless he landed somewhere with Rodgers, Brees, Manning or Rivers. 

 

 

[Dr. Fong]

12 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

QB can't win playoff games with running. I disregard this stuff.

 

Blake Bortles did.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

thanks for the reply,

 

Question, do you think Sammy Watkins could have helped Buffalo advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs?

 

Or how about this, a TE like Gronk?

 

Myself personally, I think we might be able to beat the Pats with a TE like Gronk.( Taylor behind center)

 

Especially if it means the pats don’t have a TE like Gronk 

[twoandfourteen]

 So this little exercise got me thinking... how can I continue to waste more time on pointless things today?  And it hit me... I can see what a "comparable" QB's %s look like over the past 3 seasons. 

 

Since there is some discussion about him being the same QB as Taylor, how about a little look into the life and times of Alex Smith? I didn't give him the "Full Tyrod", but most of it is here. Tyrod #'s in parenthesis. 

 

Alex Smith - 2015-2017

46 games as the Chiefs QB (TT-44):  

 

INT

Games with 3+ INT - 0 - 0.0%  (1/2.2%)

Games with 2 INT - 3 - 6.5%  (0/0.0%)

Games with 1 INT - 14 - 30.4%  (13/29.5%)

Games with 0 INT - 29 - 63.0%  (30/68.1%)

 

Games with 1 or 0 INT - 43 - 93.4%

Games with 1+ INT - 17 - 36.9%

Games with 2+ INT - 3 - 6.5%

 

Passing Yards - AS Best Game: 386    TT Best Game: 329

7 games over 300 - 15.2%  (1/2.2%)
39 games under 300 - 84.7%  (43/97.7%)
35 games under 280 - 76.0%  (38/86.3%)
20 games under 230 - 43.4%  (30/68.1%)
14 games under 200 - 30.4%  (23/52.2%)
9 games under 180 - 19.5%  (16/36.3%)
2 games under 130 - 4.3%  (7/15.9%)
0 games under 100 - 0.0% (2/4.5%)

 

Passing TDs - AS Best Game: 4    TT Best Game: 3

2 games with 4 pass TD - 4.3%  (0/0.0%)
3 games with 3 pass TD - 6.5%  (6/13.6%)
12 games with 2 pass TD - 26.0%  (7/15.9%)
20 games with 1 pass TD - 43.4%  (19/43.1%)
9 games with 0 pass TD - 19.5%  (12/27.2%)

 

Games with 1 or 0 passing TD: 29 - 63.0%  (31/70.4%)
Games with 2 or fewer passing TD: 41 - 89.1%  (38/86.3%)
Games with 2 or more passing TD: 17 - 36.9%  (13/29.5%)

 

Rushing - AS Best Game: 78    TT Best Game: 79

2 Games with 70-79 rushing yds - 4.3%  (3/6.1%)

4 Games with 60 rushing yds or more - 8.6%  (6/13.6%)

5 Games with 50 rushing yds or more - 10.8%  (10/22.7%)

41 Games with 49 rushing yds or less - 89.1%  (34/77.2%)

15 Games with 25 rushing yds or more - 32.6%  (33/75.0%)

31 Games with 24 rushing yds or less - 67.3%  (11/25.0%)

 

Passing & Rushing

2 games with 200+ passing yards & 50+ rushing yards - 4.3%  (4/9.0%)
13 games with 150+ passing yards & 25+ rushing yards - 28.2%  (27/61.3%)

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

No, dude, it is.

Case closed. It is.

 

Not to burst your bubble with that long rant you just had but they (ESPN, sports media etc.) are always touting Brady's Win total and comparing him to other QBs. They say that he is the winningest QB, etc.. It may not be an official stat for QBs but it is certainly one that is often used.

Edited January 10, 2018 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[34-78-83]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

No, dude, it is.

 

Case closed. It is.

 

Wins and losses are a team stat. It makes about as much sense to refer to QB wins and losses as Long snapper wins and losses. 

 

As far as Rob Johnson and Doug Flutie, same deal. Wins and losses are a team stat. Simple.

 

Wanna evaluate the QBs? Look at how the QBs performed. And Flutie and Johnson are indeed prime examples.

 

Take 1999. The Bills went 10-5 when Flutie started. That makes Flutie terrific, right? bull ****! The offense scored 14, 17, 26, 23, 24, 14, 16, 13, 34, 23, 7, 17, 17, 31, and 13. They averaged 20 points a game. We didn't win so much that year because of Flutie. We won because of the defense, which allowed 14.3 points per game that year, 2nd in the league, and 252.8 yards per game, 1st in the league.

 

Or take 2000. The Bills went 4-1 when Flutie started. Let's look at those five games. The Bills lost the first one. Flutie must have been terrible, because he started and they lost, according to you. Well, no, they lost 31-27. Flutie was 28/43, 2 TDs and 0 INTs and 8 yards rushing. But, no, according to this dumb idea of giving every win to one player, it was a bad game for Flutie, because they lost. It's not the defense's fault for allowing 31 points. No, it's Flutie's fault. Flutie's next game he went 18 for 35 with 0 TDs and 0 INTs and 15 yards rushing. Great game, Doug, because they won. Flutie's next start the offense scores 16 points and they win. Flutie completes 48% of his passes and has a passer rating of 71.8. Great game, Doug!! They won!! It wasn't the defense allowing only 13 points!! No, no, it was Flutie.

 

Flutie's fourth start, he goes 16 for 26 for 171 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT, with a passer rating of 64.7 and racks up 6 yards rushing on 6 attempts. Excellent game, Doug!!! They won. It wasn't the defense holding Chicago to three points!!! No, no, it was Flutie's excellent play, theoretically. 

 

In his final start, Flutie really did have a terrific game, 20 for 25 for 366 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs and the offense scores 42 points. He really did have a large share of that win, which by the way was against 6-10 Seattle.

 

Yeah, Flutie and Johnson had mostly the same guys around them on the Buffalo offense. But the teams Flutie started against ended the season with a cumulative winning record of 36-44, a winning percentage of 45%. Whereas the teams Johnson started against had a cumulative winning record of 96-80, a winning percentage of 55%. Put another way, of the five teams Flutie started against, three had losing records and two had winning records, whereas of the eleven teams Johnson started against, eight had winning records and three had losing records. In fact, of the games Johnson started, six of the eleven teams he played had win totals in double figures.

 

More, there were plenty of games where both guys played. Look at game 15 where Johnson started and threw three passes before Flutie finished up throwing 25. Should Johnson really get the blame for that 10 - 13 loss, a loss where Flutie threw more than eight times as many passes as Johnson did? Or look at week 13 where Johnson was bad in a 33 - 6 loss. Johnson went 6 of 18 for 44 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. Horrible. If only Flutie had been able to play ... oh , wait, he did. Flutie went 2 for 9 for 31 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT. Couldn't be that Buffalo's whole offense was simply outmanned, could it? No, no, Johnson started so he gets total blame for that loss. None of it belongs to Flutie or the rest of the team.

 

The whole idea of giving all the credit for wins and losses to one guy is fundamentally flawed and dumb.

 

Was it Rob Johnson that lost the Music City Miracle game? The idea's ridiculous. But if you look at pure wins and losses, Rob started the game and they lost, so it must've been his fault. Simply doesn't make sense.

 

It is bone-stupid to try to give one person a win-loss record. It's a team stat. Yeah, some QBs have a huge impact on the game, and pretty much every QB has more impact than any other player. But it's a team game. Unless you believe that Trent Dilfer was sensational the year the Ravens won the title with him running up 7-1 record as their starter was because he was performing at Aaron Rodgers-like levels of proficiency, you have to realize the extremely simple fact that it's a team stat.

 

Hell, the official name of that stat is actually "TEAM record in games started by this QB (regular season)" (my capitalization).

this times a million.

 

[Jay_Fixit]

18 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

this times a million.

 

Yep. Thurman appreciates that QB Winz is ridiculous. The worst “stat” in sports. Pitcher Winz is next.

 

My friend is a huge Tebow fan (they do exist) and uses “he wins” as his main excuse for him.

 

QB’s do not win/lose games. Teams do.

[grb]

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Nope, not really. To me, it doesn't matter who the receivers are when the QB responsible for delivering the ball just can't do it. 

 

 

Hilarious : Taylor had Watkins and Woods on the field together just 15 games over two seasons.

Those games he did this :  63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 TD passes. 6 Ints

 

Fifteen games is, of course, nearly the length of an entire season, so it's a pretty good gauge of how Taylor would perform if receivers do in fact matter.

 

Using this season's final QB stats as a benchmark, some points :

• 63.6% would only rank 13th 
• 8.25 yards per attempt would be 1st in the NFL by 2017 numbers
• 27 touchdown passes would have tied for 8th, with Cousins

 

Please remember, this data is spread out over the entirety of two years, particularly given Watkins missed most of the beginning / all of the middle of last year. You know, people who like to talk about Taylor's "regression" just never seem to notice how closely that "regression" tracks the continual draining of offensive talent over his Bills' career - sometimes by injury, but often by letting players walk or trading them away. By passing rating, Taylor finished the year just below Matt Ryan, and just above Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. I wonder how much we'd see "receivers matter" if Ryan or Carr was throwing to the Bills' targets while Taylor inherited the situation in Atlanta or Oakland. I think you'd find a whole lot of things "matter" if Dak suddenly played behind the Bill's o-line, while Taylor was throwing from Dallas' pocket. Also : Bring in Keenum and we'll see whether it "matters" that his situation is so cushy in Minnesota. 

 

I suspect you'll find out it does.....

Edited January 10, 2018 by grb

[twoandfourteen]

1 hour ago, grb said:

 

Hilarious : Taylor had Watkins and Woods on the field together just 15 games over two seasons.

Those games he did this :  63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 TD passes. 6 Ints

 

Fifteen games is, of course, nearly the length of an entire season, so it's a pretty good gauge of how Taylor would perform if receivers do in fact matter.

 

Using this season's final QB stats as a benchmark, some points :

• 63.6% would only rank 13th 
• 8.25 yards per attempt would be 1st in the NFL by 2017 numbers
• 27 touchdown passes would have tied for 8th, with Cousins

 

Please remember, this data is spread out over the entirety of two years, particularly given Watkins missed most of the beginning / all of the middle of last year. You know, people who like to talk about Taylor's "regression" just never seem to notice how closely that "regression" tracks the continual draining of offensive talent over his Bills' career - sometimes by injury, but often by letting players walk or trading them away. By passing rating, Taylor finished the year just below Matt Ryan, and just above Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. I wonder how much we'd see "receivers matter" if Ryan or Carr was throwing to the Bills' targets while Taylor inherited the situation in Atlanta or Oakland. I think you'd find a whole lot of things "matter" if Dak suddenly played behind the Bill's o-line, while Taylor was throwing from Dallas' pocket. Also : Bring in Keenum and we'll see whether it "matters" that his situation is so cushy in Minnesota. 

 

I suspect you'll find out it does.....

 

I just looked at pretty much everything Taylor did over the course of three years. 

 

You are essentially saying that Tyrod was handicapped by various things: coaching, injuries, player movement, etc. right? Well, for this to be at all relevant over a span of three years then it would have to stand that no other QB was forced to adjust or manage similar things. We all know that's not even remotely true -- rarely is a situation 100% optimal. However, I suppose you might be able to make a case if you're looking to compare head-to-head performances on a single game or very small group of games basis. 

 

However, over the course of three years all of the extraneous stuff really tends to just cancel itself out with a large enough sample size, at least in my opinion. Pretty much every QB across the league deals with injuries, changing systems, players leaving, players coming in, whatever. There's really no way to accurately or account for those things. If there was, I certainly don't have the interest or motivation to analyze every little circumstance to see how it positively or negatively affects players. 

 

Here's the deal. Stuff happens throughout the season and from season to season. Good players are talented and skilled enough to adjust and maintain acceptable standards of production. Not-so-good players regress and struggle.

 

Backup-quality players like Tyrod Taylor can produce relatively decent numbers when things are close to optimal. But when they aren't, they completely fall apart and the result is a spectacular cascade of total failure. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[Big Gun]

2 hours ago, grb said:

 

Hilarious : Taylor had Watkins and Woods on the field together just 15 games over two seasons.

Those games he did this :  63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 TD passes. 6 Ints

 

Fifteen games is, of course, nearly the length of an entire season, so it's a pretty good gauge of how Taylor would perform if receivers do in fact matter.

 

Using this season's final QB stats as a benchmark, some points :

• 63.6% would only rank 13th 
• 8.25 yards per attempt would be 1st in the NFL by 2017 numbers
• 27 touchdown passes would have tied for 8th, with Cousins

 

Please remember, this data is spread out over the entirety of two years, particularly given Watkins missed most of the beginning / all of the middle of last year. You know, people who like to talk about Taylor's "regression" just never seem to notice how closely that "regression" tracks the continual draining of offensive talent over his Bills' career - sometimes by injury, but often by letting players walk or trading them away. By passing rating, Taylor finished the year just below Matt Ryan, and just above Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. I wonder how much we'd see "receivers matter" if Ryan or Carr was throwing to the Bills' targets while Taylor inherited the situation in Atlanta or Oakland. I think you'd find a whole lot of things "matter" if Dak suddenly played behind the Bill's o-line, while Taylor was throwing from Dallas' pocket. Also : Bring in Keenum and we'll see whether it "matters" that his situation is so cushy in Minnesota. 

 

I suspect you'll find out it does.....

Hey, there it is again for the 1000th time.

 

Like it's relevant or something. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by PeterGriffin

[reddogblitz]

If WRs don't matter, only the QB does, why would Bill Bellyache trade a #1 pick for a WR (Brandon Cooks) when he has Tommy?

 

Or, why would the Atlanta Falcons trade uP to take Julio Jones when they have Matt Ryan?

 

This notion is one of the more ridiculous things I read here frequently IMHO.

4 minutes ago, PeterGriffin said:

Hey, there it is again for the 1000th time.

 

Like it's relevant or something. 

 

Was it just a fluke that Hotrod's stats are significantly better with Watkins and Woods than with all The other schmucks we trot out there?

[grb]

46 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

I just looked at pretty much everything Taylor did over the course of three years. 

 

You are essentially saying that Tyrod was handicapped by various things: coaching, injuries, player movement, etc. right? Well, for this to be at all relevant over a span of three years then it would have to stand that no other QB was forced to adjust or manage similar things. We all know that's not even remotely true -- rarely is a situation 100% optimal. However, I suppose you might be able to make a case if you're looking to compare head-to-head performances on a single game or very small group of games basis. 

 

However, over the course of three years all of the extraneous stuff really tends to just cancel itself out with a large enough sample size, at least in my opinion. Pretty much every QB across the league deals with injuries, changing systems, players leaving, players coming in, whatever. There's really no way to accurately or account for those things. If there was, I certainly don't have the interest or motivation to analyze every little circumstance to see how it positively or negatively affects players. 

 

Here's the deal. Stuff happens throughout the season and from season to season. Good players are talented and skilled enough to adjust and maintain acceptable standards of production. Not-so-good players regress and struggle.

 

Backup-quality players like Tyrod Taylor can produce relatively decent numbers when things are close to optimal. But when they aren't, they completely fall apart and the result is a spectacular cascade of total failure. 

 

Three points :

• Some of what you say is true. For instance, it's not directly comparable how I use the 2017 season numbers because all quarterbacks deal with some degree of injury
• But, the numbers w/ Watkins and Woods weren't "relatively decent" - they were damn good. One of the statistics - yards per attempt -  was extremely exceptional.  How are those numbers even possible per your TT-hating theology?
• "Close to optimal" ??? Who are you trying to kid? Watkins and Woods are a good pair of receivers, but there is nothing "optimal" about them per NFL standards. I have no idea where they'd rank league-wide as a pair, but I'm guessing nowhere near the top duos.

Remember : We launched into this particular argument because you claimed Taylor was sooooooo very bad it didn't matter how awful his targets were.

Wrong & Wrong. Maybe your theology is a little simplistic?

 

 

8 minutes ago, PeterGriffin said:

Hey, there it is again for the 1000th time. Like it's relevant or something. 

 

Yep : Posted right after the 1000th time someone made the lack-brain claim Taylor can't throw to good receivers. 

Pretty relevant to that bit of nonsense, huh? 

 

Come up with less stupid talking points and you'll bump me off my routine. (I promise)

[Figster]

4 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Nope, not really. To me, it doesn't matter who the receivers are when the QB responsible for delivering the ball just can't do it. 

 

Gronkowski's greatest strength is his ability to out-muscle any defensive player for the ball. Brady throws it to him whether he's covered or not. Taylor just refuses to do that. 

 

As an aside, I've sometimes wondered what would have become of Gronkowski had the Bills drafted him. I think he probably would have had a couple of meh-to-decent seasons, left in FA, and most likely gone on to have a decent, if not unspectacular, career. Certainly not the all-world, all-time great he became with TB12 throwing at him. Well, unless he landed somewhere with Rodgers, Brees, Manning or Rivers. 

 

 

Tyrod Taylor had developed good chemistry with Sammy and Watkins would in all likelihood have impacted the game and season in my humble opinion. Taylor is short, doesn't see over the Oline well, and having chemistry with your WR is probably more important for Tyrod Taylor then any other QB in the league IMO.

 

with all due respect sir

Edited January 10, 2018 by Figster

[Big Gun]

43 minutes ago, grb said:

 

Three points :

• Some of what you say is true. For instance, it's not directly comparable how I use the 2017 season numbers because all quarterbacks deal with some degree of injury
• But, the numbers w/ Watkins and Woods weren't "relatively decent" - they were damn good. One of the statistics - yards per attempt -  was extremely exceptional.  How are those numbers even possible per your TT-hating theology?
• "Close to optimal" ??? Who are you trying to kid? Watkins and Woods are a good pair of receivers, but there is nothing "optimal" about them per NFL standards. I have no idea where they'd rank league-wide as a pair, but I'm guessing nowhere near the top duos.

Remember : We launched into this particular argument because you claimed Taylor was sooooooo very bad it didn't matter how awful his targets were.

Wrong & Wrong. Maybe your theology is a little simplistic?

 

 

 

Yep : Posted right after the 1000th time someone made the lack-brain claim Taylor can't throw to good receivers. 

Pretty relevant to that bit of nonsense, huh? 

 

Come up with less stupid talking points and you'll bump me off my routine. (I promise)

 

Don't need to as you are doing a mighty fine job already.

[Teddy KGB]

3 hours ago, grb said:

 

Hilarious : Taylor had Watkins and Woods on the field together just 15 games over two seasons.

Those games he did this :  63.6% comp. 8.25 YPA. 27 TD passes. 6 Ints

 

Fifteen games is, of course, nearly the length of an entire season, so it's a pretty good gauge of how Taylor would perform if receivers do in fact matter.

 

Using this season's final QB stats as a benchmark, some points :

• 63.6% would only rank 13th 
• 8.25 yards per attempt would be 1st in the NFL by 2017 numbers
• 27 touchdown passes would have tied for 8th, with Cousins

 

Please remember, this data is spread out over the entirety of two years, particularly given Watkins missed most of the beginning / all of the middle of last year. You know, people who like to talk about Taylor's "regression" just never seem to notice how closely that "regression" tracks the continual draining of offensive talent over his Bills' career - sometimes by injury, but often by letting players walk or trading them away. By passing rating, Taylor finished the year just below Matt Ryan, and just above Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. I wonder how much we'd see "receivers matter" if Ryan or Carr was throwing to the Bills' targets while Taylor inherited the situation in Atlanta or Oakland. I think you'd find a whole lot of things "matter" if Dak suddenly played behind the Bill's o-line, while Taylor was throwing from Dallas' pocket. Also : Bring in Keenum and we'll see whether it "matters" that his situation is so cushy in Minnesota. 

 

I suspect you'll find out it does.....

 

Give this man 2015 back.     8-8 team that couldn’t keep up with Sam Bradford or the Redkins 28th ranked defense when needed. 

 

??‍♂️