Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) 45 minutes ago, simpleman said: If we don't "rent" Smith for one year, and we keep TT in 2018 we still will owe TT 5 million in dead cap in 2019 if we cut him then. So in 2019 you will have spent effectively almost 24 million to keep TT on the team in 2018. How is that 50% more to cut TT and have a better QB option in 2018? You mention Cousins as a preferred option. With TT's dead cap and Cousin's guaranteed money and prorated signing bonus you realize having Cousins in 2018 would likely cost you over 35 + million for the 2018 year. Do you really think Cousins will bring the Bills a Superbowl? How many Superbowls has he brought his teams? Cousins in not the future, he is just a much more expensive bridge QB. Wouldn't it make more sense to ask, how many Superbowls has Jay Gruden brought his team? How many Superbowls did Drew Brees bring the Chargers? Cousins has performed very well for 4 years as starter, including in a frustrating situation as far as the rest of the team. What is this "teams", Redskins are his only team. We disagree on Cousins ceiling. If you move on from his ceiling to his contract, the question isn't guaranteed money or signing bonus or cash cost, the question is how the contract is structured against the cap for 2018, and that's fairly straightforward to do. You give Cousins something like a $30M signing bonus spread over 5 years and a minimal salary this year, say $1M. Now he's got a $7M cap hit this year, but he's a happy man because he just put $31M in his pocket. We have $47M in cap if we cut Taylor, enough money to sign Cousins, resign a couple players, and go after some FA to upgrade our OL and WR. Next year we have $25M of dead cap come off the books, plenty of money to pay Cousins on a well-structured contract. It's really a question of player evaluation and what you think Cousins level is. I think he's the best bet of the (likely) available FA QB and would allow us to take the Jimmy Garappolo route of drafting QB we like in the 2nd/3rd round and developing them for a couple years while using the draft to upgrade the DL, OL, LB, and WR. PS to your first sentence, the point is that TT and Smith have almost the same 2018 salary, but we need to cover TT's accelerated bonus if we cut him so the QB position winds up costing $24M, or 50% more. I'm not saying Smith isn't a better QB, but you have to believe he's 50% better to go that route, and that's only if you give up a pick to KC and take him on a 1 year rental. Edited January 9, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I don't think any Bills fans would be looking at Smith as being more than a guy for our QB of the future to sit behind and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: If we have to give up nothing (or we just trade Tyrod straight up for him) then I'm fine with Smith as our week 1 starter. If we are talking about a day 2 pick, no way am I making that deal. I think the Browns with Dorsey will be more aggressive for him anyway, but we need to use all our draft capital to get younger and deeper and potentially a QB we can actually groom. LOL KC is not giving up Smith for nothing, nor are they trading for Tyrod Taylor. The only reason KC would move on from Smith right now is that they're $7.8M in the red for 2018 and they need to get their cap down at the start of the league year. They can't take on Taylor's $16M salary. If the Chiefs can't find a taker, it's not beyond belief that they cut Smith, but I think in this QB market their odds of several bidders are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said: I don't think any Bills fans would be looking at Smith as being more than a guy for our QB of the future to sit behind and learn. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem giving up a day 2 draft pick for that stopgap, when I'm not sure the rest of the team is good enough to return to the playoffs anyway. 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: LOL KC is not giving up Smith for nothing, nor are they trading for Tyrod Taylor. The only reason KC would move on from Smith right now is that they're $7.8M in the red for 2018 and they need to get their cap down at the start of the league year. They can't take on Taylor's $16M salary. If the Chiefs can't find a taker, it's not beyond belief that they cut Smith, but I think in this QB market their odds of several bidders are good. Exactly. I understand the Browns being desperate enough and having enough picks to give up something of value for him. I understand a team like Arizona thinking a healthy David Johnson and Smith at qb vs Gabbert or Staton could put them in position for a run. I don't understand why we would give up a valuable pick for him when the rest of the roster isn't near good enough to win anything meaningful. Sam Bradford or even Josh McCown can buy time for a rookie and won't cost a draft pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem giving up a day 2 draft pick for that stopgap, when I'm not sure the rest of the team is good enough to return to the playoffs anyway. Do you mean day 2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think all we have to ask is would Smith have given the Bills a better chance to beat the Panthers, Bengals, and the Jags. I think so. I would trade a 4th or 5th to KC but the Bills need to fill more holes so they need all there picks in the 1-3rd rounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 (edited) Bills should set their sites higher than Alex Smith. He's not good enough. The answer is in the draft. Gotta be one or more of them there this year - even at the position the Bills first pick in. Just have to do a better job of identifying and picking that person than the other teams do. Cheaper rental QB's are available that can give you as much upside as Alex Smith can. Edited January 9, 2018 by PolishDave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: Not sure who that was down the seam, but that made me irrationally frustrated. Smith is an upgrade to TT. By how much is debatable. But an upgrade. Depends on cost I think. We have a lot of holes on this team and that is a bit scary. I would like to stay put and fill those holes with a Smith type if we can, and grab a guy that is sitting there for us late in the 1st. Unless we can trade up to the top 3 picks, I don't really have any interest in a guy like Mayfield in the middle of the first. Kirk Cousins at 22-23ish mil per year would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: He misses guys breaking open all the time because of this. It doesn't go down as an interception, it doesn't go down as a sack. It doesn't go down as an incomplete pass. It looks like a two yard run on the stat sheet and keeps his other numbers from looking bad. Should be a smooth transition for all the Tyrod believers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Wouldn't it make more sense to ask, how many Superbowls has Jay Gruden brought his team? How many Superbowls did Drew Brees bring the Chargers? Cousins has performed very well for 4 years as starter, including in a frustrating situation as far as the rest of the team. What is this "teams", Redskins are his only team. We disagree on Cousins ceiling. The took two 1000 yard receivers away from Cousins and expected him to get over the hump. Cousins has been prone to throw INT's and this last game being one of them. I'm wondering how tired of DC is he. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 OK so you toss KC a 3rd round pick and draft a qb to groom high As good a plan as any 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickelCity Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, John from Hemet said: OK so you toss KC a 3rd round pick and draft a qb to groom high As good a plan as any It really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teddy KGB Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, PolishDave said: Bills should set their sites higher than Alex Smith. He's not good enough. The answer is in the draft. Gotta be one or more of them there this year - even at the position the Bills first pick in. Just have to do a better job of identifying and picking that person than the other teams do. Cheaper rental QB's are available that can give you as much upside as Alex Smith can. Alex Smith could’ve beat the jags this weekend. Alex Smith also beat the snot out of the Pats this season. I dont see an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 33 minutes ago, John from Hemet said: OK so you toss KC a 3rd round pick and draft a qb to groom high As good a plan as any I could be wrong, but I think KC will get higher. I know SF got Jimmy Garappolo for a 2nd but that is widely regarded as "giving him away". It's not an awful plan but if there's any way we could sign Cousins without breaking our cap, I'd prefer it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: I could be wrong, but I think KC will get higher. I know SF got Jimmy Garappolo for a 2nd but that is widely regarded as "giving him away". It's not an awful plan but if there's any way we could sign Cousins without breaking our cap, I'd prefer it. Gotta take age into factor here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, John from Hemet said: Gotta take age into factor here Where Cousins is concerned, or where Smith is concerned? Smith is 33, Cousins is 29. I think Peyton Manning then Tom Brady skewed the expectations on QB performance with age. People figure Smith has 5-6 years left in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Smith, We will see....I think a 3rd is probably in the right ball park. Even possibly a 3rd and a latter round draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I could be wrong, but I think KC will get higher. I know SF got Jimmy Garappolo for a 2nd but that is widely regarded as "giving him away". It's not an awful plan but if there's any way we could sign Cousins without breaking our cap, I'd prefer it. Fetched a 3rd and a 5th .. 5 years ago. A 3rd at best now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starrymessenger Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: Not to quibble but the reason Alex bails is because he sees the SAM (James Harrison) with a clear path and breaking for him so he tries to keep his distance while surveying his options to the weak side. I agree that ideally you would have wanted him to hang in there long enuf to see Hill streaking free to his left for a sure TD. So yeah a bit like Tyrod there. IMO he would have probably had time to see Hill and deliver the ball before Harrison decapitated him, but just barely. A bloodthirsty Harrison is about to catch up to him on the sidelines just as the tape runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I suspect Smith ends up in Chicago,and Glennon ends up in cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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