Alex Smith, assessment from a KC fan

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

So, you’ll settle for a different kind of QB aggravation which equals the same results?

Make no mistake, I worry OBD will settle as well..

Amen. I am sorry for the herky jerky posting, my phone was wonky.

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Tyrod isn't cheap, not even for a bridge. It would cost us $15 mill more to keep him than to let him go, $10 mill more in 2018 and then $5 mill more in dead cap in 2019. He's not cheap.

 

And Smith has consistently put up better YPC and completion percentage numbers than Tyrod has managed except for that brief period in his first year starting when teams didn't know how to handle him. 

 

2017 YPC Alex Smith 8.0 (5th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.7 (25th)

2016 YPC Alex Smith 7.2 (18th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.9 (26th)

 

2017 Comp % Alex Smith 67.5% (3rd in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (18th) 

2016 Comp % Alex Smith 67.1% (6th in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (21st) 

 

Those are two specific stats and it's more complex than that, but they're the two stats you yourself pointed out. Smith is better, significantly so. We should be drafting someone high. Smith would not be a good choice as the long-term guy, but as a bridge he'd be better than Tyrod and not significantly more expensive, though Tyrod's cap hit is partly a year later.

 

Smith is also a guy who plays better from the pocket than Tyrod, and that's the one thing that McDermott has said is necessary for a QB in his system.

 

40 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

You honestly believe Smith brings the same level of play as Tyrod? Smith will at least ATTEMPT contested passes.

 

 

I don't think you are listening. Tyrod is not the same player as Smith. Smith is much more of a pocket passer. He is a better fit for Rico's offense. But when I look side by side at the two in the years when they both had competent OC's (I see you left out 2015 good sir) they are far closer. Again, we are talking about "let's pass short to the goal line on first and goal" Rico. "10th in scoring to 22nd in scoring" Rico. I won't fight too hard about Smith being a better QB. If he is, it's marginal.

 

Let's also talk about the realities of getting him. Do you want to chase him on the open market? He wants to be a long term starter. What kind of money are you throwing at him to lure him to the Bills? Going rate is probably +$22M a year. Do you want to trade for him? What assets are you going to give up to the Chiefs (who paid 2 firsts for him, and another to move up for his replacement) to pay him $17M a year, on top of the $8.6 in dead money to Tyrod? For a one year rental on a QB likely disgruntled at being the bridge two years in a row.

 

Either way wrecks the cap and requires immediate cuts and causes succession problems.

 

I am seeing people who hate Tyrod so, so very much, that they are willing to jump at ANY alternative, no matter how foolish long term, to see him gone. Smith is NOT the answer.

Just now, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Try watching Tyrod for 3 years and then tell us “Alex Smith isn’t anything special”.

 

I have. He ain't.

[CEN-CAL17]

5 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Amen. I am sorry for the herky jerky posting, my phone was wonky.

 

 

I don't think you are listening. Tyrod is not the same player as Smith. Smith is much more of a pocket passer. He is a better fit for Rico's offense. But when I look side by side at the two in the years when they both had competent OC's (I see you left out 2015 good sir) they are far closer. Again, we are talking about "let's pass short to the goal line on first and goal" Rico. "10th in scoring to 22nd in scoring" Rico. I won't fight too hard about Smith being a better QB. If he is, it's marginal.

 

Let's also talk about the realities of getting him. Do you want to chase him on the open market? He wants to be a long term starter. What kind of money are you throwing at him to lure him to the Bills? Going rate is probably +$22M a year. Do you want to trade for him? What assets are you going to give up to the Chiefs (who paid 2 firsts for him, and another to move up for his replacement) to pay him $17M a year, on top of the $8.6 in dead money to Tyrod? For a one year rental on a QB likely disgruntled at being the bridge two years in a row.

 

Either way wrecks the cap and requires immediate cuts and causes succession problems.

 

I am seeing people who hate Tyrod so, so very much, that they are willing to jump at ANY alternative, no matter how foolish long term, to see him gone. Smith is NOT the answer.

 

I have. He ain't.

Alex Smith wasn’t the problem in Kansas City. Nobody here is gonna say he’s a top 5 QB. But he’s a tremendous upgrade over Tyrod.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Really? Because, the way I see it, both have the exact same number of playoff wins over the past three years. Smith had the benefit of a more talent cast, and a defense that covered up his short comings.

 

Pray tell, what IS the problem in Kansas City? It looks like a massive case of Andy Reid to me (wonderful preparation in the regular season, piss poor adaptation in the playoffs).

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Tyrod isn't cheap, not even for a bridge. It would cost us $15 mill more to keep him than to let him go, $10 mill more in 2018 and then $5 mill more in dead cap in 2019. He's not cheap.

 

And Smith has consistently put up better YPC and completion percentage numbers than Tyrod has managed except for that brief period in his first year starting when teams didn't know how to handle him. 

 

2017 YPC Alex Smith 8.0 (5th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.7 (25th)

2016 YPC Alex Smith 7.2 (18th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.9 (26th)

 

2017 Comp % Alex Smith 67.5% (3rd in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (18th) 

2016 Comp % Alex Smith 67.1% (6th in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (21st) 

 

Those are two specific stats and it's more complex than that, but they're the two stats you yourself pointed out. Smith is better, significantly so. We should be drafting someone high. Smith would not be a good choice as the long-term guy, but as a bridge he'd be better than Tyrod and not significantly more expensive, though Tyrod's cap hit is partly a year later.

 

Smith is also a guy who plays better from the pocket than Tyrod, and that's the one thing that McDermott has said is necessary for a QB in his system.

Why skip 2015?

[Woodman19]

Smith would be worth it for just allowing us to finally establish a consistent structure on the offense.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Have opposing defensive players ever said after a game the key to shutting him down was "making him a quarterback"? On multiple occasions?

 

in back to back games no less and for the playoffs.   Make both QB's a QB.   Bortles beat us with his legs - which was supposed to be Superman TT's "strength" 

one year bridge between Smith and TT  -  Alex Smith easy. 

[Mrbojanglezs]

I would take Smith only if we draft a qb to groom behind him

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

10 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Alex Smith wasn’t the problem in Kansas City. Nobody here is gonna say he’s a top 5 QB. But he’s a tremendous upgrade over Tyrod.

 

Perhaps as a better question: Is he better than Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers, Luck, Wentz, Rodgers, Carr, Newton or Russell Wilson? Because he ain't in my eyes.

Would the Chiefs likely have fared similarly or better in playoff distance with Flacco, Dalton, Bortles, Cousins, Prescott, Stafford, Winston, Matt Ryan, or Goff?

I think they would.

 

That's 20 starters in a 32 team league. If your guy hovering around a group between 12th and 20th best in the league, that is the definition of average to sub average.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Smith will be available and for a team like Buffalo, he'd be a good bridge to whoever your next franchise QB is.  Let me tell you now, he isn't more than that.  You will look at his sparkling stat sheet and see that he throws for a high completion percentage, doesn't turn the ball over, and this season, his YPA was pretty good as he did go downfield more than his career numbers would suggest.  He's tough, smart and a good locker room and community guy.  You'd think by all this he is everything you could want in a QB...and for the Bills or the Browns, Jags...he CAN do what he did for us...and that is bring stability and good play to the quarterback position.  DO NOT think you are getting a guy who elevates the roster around him and makes a key play when it matters most.  He isn't that guy.  The thing about Smith that doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and you don't see it just watching a game unless you are looking for it, is that Smith will make "nothing out of something" several times a game and especially at crucial moments.  His pocket presence is awful.  Let me explain this.  When Smith takes a snap, stays in the pocket, does his reads, sets and throughs...he can throw a beautiful NFL pass...even downfield.  The problem is, Smith often will take a snap and with the slightest bit of percieved pocket getting a little tight...takes off and runs...and not aiming to throw, just to run.  He misses guys breaking open all the time because of this.  It doesn't go down as an interception, it doesn't go down as a sack.  It doesn't go down as an incomplete pass.  It looks like a two yard run on the stat sheet and keeps his other numbers from looking bad.  A fan just watching the game will get the impression that Smith is "improvising" or "buying time" when actually he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket and taken a good play and made it into something completely unproductive.  He does this at various points of a football game, but the more crucial the situation, the worse his tendency to do this becomes.  Here is an example of what I am talking about.  He does this all the time.  You won't see Brady or Brees etc do this...they "win" in the pocket.  This alone is why Alex Smith is good and not great.  Just understand that is what you'd be getting...good but not great...a stablizing player at QB, but not a guy who elevates the talent around him.  We've seen enough of Mahomes the beleive the kid is a rare talent and looking forward to that era here.  If you get Smith, you'll be happy for a while.  He will get you to the next franchise QB..but he IS NOT a franchise QB. 

 

Great post man. Alex has at most the potential to be a marginal bridge upgrade.... AND I’ll add if they retain Dennison, there is the question of how that will fit him..

 

i buy all of this.  

Edited January 9, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

Yet he regressed.   The defense alone should have gotten the team at least one more win had TT not sucked in the 2nd half of every freaking game.  

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Thanks . I really appreciate the summation but...let's ignore the madness that Wayne and Savior Peterman. put out.

 

We kind of have a cheaper bridge in Tyrod. He can do with his legs what Smith does with his feet, when he isn't forced into whatever you call Rico's system. If you look over the numbers from 2015 and 2016 (when he had an OC who knew how to use him) he has similar completion %, Y/A and TD:Int ratio as Smith. Smith has more yards, obviously, coming from the Andy Reid philopspohy of Pass, Pass, Pass, and when you get tired of that, Pass (Sorry, that's what I hear nonstop from fans here in Philly)

 

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

We know Tyrod isn't the answer. But why on Earth would we spend MORE money by putting a new guy who we know is not the long term answer on the roster to be a bridge for the rookie it seems we are to inevitably take?

 

Really, his numbers this year with Rico are nearly identical to his numbers under Lynn and Roman.  TT’s numbers did not change.  The running attack took a step back from #1 to #6 and that was basically the difference in offense.  

 

Smith also had an incredible year this year putting differences between TT normal year and what Smith can do at his best.

 

I am not sure Smith provides you a whole lot more than TT, but I think he is an improvement.  I would much rather have him mentor a young QB than TT because he can at least read the field.

 

I do not care if it is Smith or someone else from FA, but I do not want to see TT out their doing his thing anymore 3 years and 3 OC’s and people still think he is not the problem. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Yet he regressed.   The defense alone should have gotten the team at least one more win had TT not sucked in the 2nd half of every freaking game.  

 

 

Did...did you not read the part about where he lost his WR1, 2, 3 and 4, and was pushed into a system that does not suit his talents? Because that perfectly explains why he regressed, yet we won more games.

 

 

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Really, his numbers this year with Rico are nearly identical to his numbers under Lynn and Roman.  TT’s numbers did not change.  The running attack took a step back from #1 to #6 and that was basically the difference in offense.  

 

Smith also had an incredible year this year putting differences between TT normal year and what Smith can do at his best.

 

I am not sure Smith provides you a whole lot more than TT, but I think he is an improvement.  I would much rather have him mentor a young QB than TT because he can at least read the field.

 

I do not care if it is Smith or someone else from FA, but I do not want to see TT out their doing his thing anymore 3 years and 3 OC’s and people still think he is not the problem. 

 

Scoring offense from 10th to 22nd. That's something.

 

Again, I am agreeing that Smith might be a marginally better QB. I am also agreeing that we need to move on from Tyrod. But as I posted later, cutting Tyrod is a cap hit of 8.6 million in dead money, plus a $22+ million a year on the open FA market or $17M and trade assets for a one year rental via trade. It's a terrible deal for a guy we would looking to be gone from in 2019

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Did...did you not read the part about where he lost his WR1, 2, 3 and 4, and was pushed into a system that does not suit his talents? Because that perfectly explains why he regressed, yet we won more games.

What are you talking about? Didn't you know our HC got the most out of Tyrod!

[CEN-CAL17]

13 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Really? Because, the way I see it, both have the exact same number of playoff wins over the past three years. Smith had the benefit of a more talent cast, and a defense that covered up his short comings.

 

Pray tell, what IS the problem in Kansas City? It looks like a massive case of Andy Reid to me (wonderful preparation in the regular season, piss poor adaptation in the playoffs).

Difference is you’re upset about losing your playoff game knowing you basically will have to go with a rookie QB next year and hope it works.

 

Where Bills fans know this team overachieved after stripping it and it’s only gonna get better, not only that but to replace Tyrod with an Alex Smith or Case Keenum etc we are sitting nice. 

 

You are looking at KC and spotlighting one individual for your playoff loss and comparing it to Tyrod and Buffalo. But Buffalo wasn’t even supposed to win but 4 games this year and we made it. It’s apples and oranges, most fans will be more than happy to take Alex Smith off your hands. Cause KCs problem is more than Alex.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

What are you talking about? Didn't you know our HC got the most out of Tyrod!

 

...I know you are being sarcastic, I just don't know what about.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

...I know you are being sarcastic, I just don't know what about.

It's a direct quote from the guy you're trying to have a conversation with... 

[CEN-CAL17]

Tyrod wont be a #1 QB ever again. Take it to the bank! 

 

There is 3 years of film team wont really care for, not to mention mental downsides of Tyrods game. He’s a 1 dimensional QB in a 3rd league.

 

That kid from Alabama probably grasps the mental side of the game over Tyrod.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Just now, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Difference is you’re upset about losing your playoff game knowing you basically will have to go with a rookie QB next year and hope it works.

 

Where Bills fans know this team overachieved after stripping it and it’s only gonna get better, not only that but to replace Tyrod with an Alex Smith or Case Keenum etc we are sitting nice. 

 

You are looking at KC and spotlighting one individual for your playoff loss and comparing it to Tyrod and Buffalo. But Buffalo wasn’t even supposed to win but 4 games this year and we made it. It’s apples and oranges, most fans will be more than happy to take Alex Smith off your hands. Cause KCs problem is more than Alex.

 

Again. I repeat now yet again: Do people understand the cost of bringing in Smith and dumping Taylor? Financial cost. Asset cost. Because it is impossible under the rules to simply swap one for the other without consequences.

 

As for the bolded points:

 

One, it was that USA today shill who predicted four wins. Few in national media have looked dumb by picking on the Bills the last decade. Even if we beat expectations by numerous wins, they could always fall back and say "Well, they didn't make the playoffs, did they?'

 

Two: Again, I ask you what are Kansas City's problems other than Alex Smith. I will again reference you to a list of greater or equal NFL starters. Tell me what they are (other than the obvious Andy Reid problem). I'm waiting.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

Again. I repeat now yet again: Do people understand the cost of bringing in Smith and dumping Taylor? Financial cost. Asset cost. Because it is impossible under the rules to simply swap one for the other without consequences.

 

As for the bolded points:

 

One, it was that USA today shill who predicted four wins. Few in national media have looked dumb by picking on the Bills the last decade. Even if we beat expectations by numerous wins, they could always fall back and say "Well, they didn't make the playoffs, did they?'

 

Two: Again, I ask you what are Kansas City's problems other than Alex Smith. I will again reference you to a list of greater or equal NFL starters. Tell me what they are (other than the obvious Andy Reid problem). I'm waiting.

 

I think the first thing that sticks out to me is KC's defense seems to have regressed every year since 2014.

They used to be elite.

I don't watch KC much so I really can't go any deeper than that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Have opposing defensive players ever said after a game the key to shutting him down was "making him a quarterback"? On multiple occasions?

 

That was pretty much the kind of thing that was said all the time in the first 4-5 years of Smith's career.  He's developed into enough of a downfield passer at this point in his career that it's not said now, but the fan is right on. 

 

And bear in mind he is playing for Andy Reid, who has tailored the offense to him.

 

This is why I am not thrilled with the notion of acquiring Smith.