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Alex Smith, assessment from a KC fan


Zerovoltz

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Just now, Teddy KGB said:

 

He won the nfl title game the following week then lost 34-31 in the sb.  

 

If kelce didnt get smoked and Reid went Reid again idk if this talk is happening.  

 

I get your point, but I’m not buying all of it.   

Teddy, I think you have your years mixed up....After beating the Saints, the niners lost he following week to the Giants in a close game.  The NEXT SEASON Smith got a concussion and lost his job to Kaepernick about week 8 or so...the Kaepernick led 49ers lost to the Ravens in the Super bowl.  Smith was traded to KC that offseason for 2 2nd round draft picks.

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2 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Is that Dead cap after March 1... or just if we don’t resign him?

 

either way no way Tyrod is on this team. I love my Bills but I’ll sit back and wait til he’s gone, cause he just can’t do it.

 

I still take Smith for 2 years.

Again, 2 years would mean he's signing a new deal. We'll have to see if he's open to that and what he would even accept. Something tells me he's looking more at a 3 year $65M deal.

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You do realize that from 3 years of film, I could pull some similar moments on TT.  You do realize that, right?

 

No,  you surely can’t.        Especially a playoff game 80 yard drive for the win. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Is that Dead cap after March 1... or just if we don’t resign him?

either way no way Tyrod is on this team. I love my Bills but I’ll sit back and wait til he’s gone, cause he just can’t do it.

I still take Smith for 2 years.

 

I don't understand your question.  Tyrod is under contract for 2018, there's no resigning. 

If we cut him, we take $8.64M dead cap unless he resigns elsewhere for more than $1M (guaranteed salary).  If we trade him before his roster bonus comes due it's $7.64M.

 

That is why my first choice acquiring a QB is NOT to trade for Smith.

7 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

He won the nfl title game the following week then lost 34-31 in the sb.  

If kelce didnt get smoked and Reid went Reid again idk if this talk is happening.  

I get your point, but I’m not buying all of it.   

 

Isn't that a little like saying "if Thompson caught that pass and didn't have that stupid holding penalty and and Benjamin didn't get that OPI penalty and Clay didn't step OOB?"

 

But you're mixed up.  That's from 2012 playoffs (2011 season).  Smith lost the NFL title game to the Giants the following week.

The next year, when the 49ers went to the SB, Smith had lost his job to Kaepernick.  Keep that phrase in mind, eh?

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What the OP said sounds a bit like some posts I've read about Tyrod.  I don't necessarily disagree.  I view Alex Smith as a bridge QB, the same way I've viewed Tyrod.  I think his passing overall is a little better than Tyrod's, and for that reason I'd be willing to pay a bit more than I'd pay Tyrod to get us through 2 or 3 more seasons until we can find/develop a true franchise guy.  I'm still looking though.  

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6 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

No,  you surely can’t.        Especially a playoff game 80 yard drive for the win.

 

If you stipulate "playoff game" no I can't.  Must we play this silliness?

That's the whole point of highlight films they're cut to make the guy look great.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PISCzWFn43Q

 

Note how Watkins actually has to hesitate and come back for that long pass, and note how he leads Clay and threads the pass between defenders.

 

Again the point I'm trying to make is that you can't define a guy, any guy, as an NFL player from a couple of highlights.

2 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

What the OP said sounds a bit like some posts I've read about Tyrod.  I don't necessarily disagree.  I view Alex Smith as a bridge QB, the same way I've viewed Tyrod.  I think his passing overall is a little better than Tyrod's, and for that reason I'd be willing to pay a bit more than I'd pay Tyrod to get us through 2 or 3 more seasons until we can find/develop a true franchise guy.  I'm still looking though.  

 

Smith's passing at this point is, and has been for a couple years, significantly better than Tyrod.  The point is that

1) earlier in Smith's career, exactly the same kind of things were said about Smith as are said about Tyrod

2) when push comes to shove, Smith still can fall into the same patterns - happy feet, flush from the pocket instead of step into a lane, leave throws downfield

3) the last couple years, Smith has had a sturdy, reliable TE target in Kelce (missed fewer games than Clay) and a reliable burner target in Hill.  His other WR are upgrades to ours.

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37 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Of course we have problems more than Alex.  We have Alex and lost at home to the Titans after leading by 18 at halftime.  Our defense is pretty slow and old at key places, not to mention our cap issues causing a lack of decent roster depth.  That said...we have plenty enough talent to go farther if not limited at the QB spot.  Wanting to move on from Smith to Mahomes isn't the same as choosing to go back to being 2-14 again....Smith only gets you so far...for the reasons I have explained above.  He isn't a bad player..his quite good..but that's it...good.  See the videos I posted here...this is TYPICAL.  You can win a lot of games with Smith at QB...he just isn't quite equal to big moments and you can tell he plays with his main priority being not to make a mistake....it's a detriment for a player with his talent...because again...as I said, when he actually stays in a pocket, makes a read..sets and throws..Smith has NFL talent...he can and does throw a beautiful NFL pass.  The problem is that he bails if you so much as fart in his direction when he's back there...he's got to have a spacious pocket that he can stand in and see all the rushers to his front.  He will be a WONDERFUL bridge player for whoever gets him....I am just telling you fine Bills fans, that is all he is.  He is missing the pocket pressence that would put him up there with a Brees, brady, etc.  

Can someone dial up Videos of Tyrod's short comings so OP can see what we are dealing with?

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14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you stipulate "playoff game" no I can't.  Must we play this silliness?

That's the whole point of highlight films they're cut to make the guy look great.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PISCzWFn43Q

 

Note how Watkins actually has to hesitate and come back for that long pass, and note how he leads Clay and threads the pass between defenders.

 

Again the point I'm trying to make is that you can't define a guy, any guy, as an NFL player from a couple of highlights.

 

Smith’s resume blows Taylor’s resume away.  

 

It it is most definetly an upgrade, and I’m not saying Smith is “all that”

 

I think Taylor is really really bad but that’s my personal opinion.  Smith brings competence and timing to an offense that definetly needs it.  

Edited by Teddy KGB
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Zerovotlz, you are awesome! Thanks for your insight. I trust your assessment and agree. Smith would give us a consistent guy but it won't be enough to go all the way. I'd be fine with him if we also draft our real future 1st rd as well

 

Edited by ProcessTheTrust
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6 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Smith’s resume blows Taylor’s resume away.  

 

It it is most definetly an upgrade, and I’m not saying Smith is “all that”

 

I think Taylor is really really bad but that’s my personal opinion.  

Thing is some fans won’t believe it until Tyrod goes to a different team a still struggles.  Once people understand that running around isn’t the best way to play QB. Shoot we watch Brady twice a year and people still love that Tyrod runs around. I would be willing to bet 50% of the time he runs around he didn’t have to. But because his pre snap ability is weak, mental aspect to make checks is weak etc is why he’s running around. For god sake, the play he got hurt there was a wide open receiver he looked right at. It’s like he got himself hurt, that was his fault cause he doesn’t need to be running around. 

As fans we’ve seen to many opportunities passed up cause of his inability.

 

He won’t be a #1 ever again because of it. There’s too much tape and he’s had long enough where players coaches GMs etc know the truth. Fans can point fingers here or there. It’s false hope.

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3 hours ago, H2o said:

If they give up Smith for a 4th I can deal with that. If they want anything more then I would pass. Not give up a 3rd or any kind of multiple picks for a game manager in his mid 30's. 

I think there are so many teams desperate for an established QB, that Smith will return more than a 4th.  I could see a team giving up a 2nd.   

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1 minute ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think it is this simple. The Bills cannot sell Tyrod to the fan base for another year.

 

They have to get someone else. 

It’s nit just the Bills either... he will go somewhere and look exactly the same and fans will see the Tyrod of Buffalo and tell themselves “this is why Buffalo dumped him”

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49 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

McDermott is what got this team to 9 wins. He created a locker room that fought hard as Under dogs every week. Tyrods minimal 100 yd games weren’t the difference maker. Bills were the only team with zero completions over 50 yards. (....)

As far as Finances... Tyrod is set to make $18M next year with a $6M roster bonus March 1. Ain’t gonna happen. I’d give Smith $18M per for the next 3 years any day!

 

Would that "every week" include the week 9 Jets, week 10 Saints, and week 11 Chargers game?  Because personally those games, it kind of looked to me like our D was "phoning it in"

I've made the point before, but just what WR was Taylor supposed to throw >50 yards to?  We had a scrap heap at WR this year, Benjamin gave us 6 hampered games and Zay "Stone hands" Jones can't be what they hoped for as a WR.

Effectively you'll be paying $24.4M for the QB position next year on a 1 year rental of Smith.

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40 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Tyrod's 2018 cap hit is $16M per spotrac. Trading for Smith would involve the loss of a draft pick, likely a day 2 pick. Based on Smith's contract, we would owe him $17M this year plus we'd have $8.64M Dead cap from Tyrod. 2018 also appears to be the last year on Smith's current deal, so if he didn't want to be here he could play the year and leave and our 2018 QB cap hit would be over $25M.

We have the dead cap if we cut Tyrod. It does not matter who we sign as a Vet QB. We will still have the dead cap. Signing Smith does not affect TT dead cap. I would take Smith over Tyrod any day for a day 2 draft pick. The chances of turning a day 2 QB draft pick into an immediate starting quality QB of Smith's caliber is slim to none. TT is not good enough to advance this team in  the 2018 season.

 

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3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think it is this simple. The Bills cannot sell Tyrod to the fan base for another year.

They have to get someone else. 

 

To continue to develop as an offense, especially if they keep Dennison, the Bills have to make a QB change.  There's no question. 

 

That said, I really hate the idea of driving a QB change by what you can "sell to the fan base".  Nix got a lot of things wrong, but when he said "if you make decisions based on the fans, you'll be sitting with them soon", he was right.

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Just now, LabattBlue said:

I think there are so many teams desperate for an established QB, that Smith will return more than a 4th.  I could see a team giving up a 2nd.   

Yep, coming off a statistically solid season, still looks good. There is value there. And you’re right, some teams have a half a dozen holes (Bills) why not get a somewhat sure bet with a 2nd and save that first to fill a huge need. To many teams in the situation make the demand very high. 2nd rd is too what I’m saying.

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<The problem is, Smith often will take a snap and with the slightest bit of percieved pocket getting a little tight...takes off and runs...and not aiming to throw, just to run. >

 

I'm not buying this, at all.  He only ran 60 times all year and many of those runs were designed.

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4 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

It’s nit just the Bills either... he will go somewhere and look exactly the same and fans will see the Tyrod of Buffalo and tell themselves “this is why Buffalo dumped him”

I think so too but unless they watch him, they will go by his stats which have him as an above average QB game manager. Desperate fans will cling to hope,as we know all too well. :( I bet he lands somewhere

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