Alex Smith, assessment from a KC fan

[Zerovoltz]

Smith will be available and for a team like Buffalo, he'd be a good bridge to whoever your next franchise QB is.  Let me tell you now, he isn't more than that.  You will look at his sparkling stat sheet and see that he throws for a high completion percentage, doesn't turn the ball over, and this season, his YPA was pretty good as he did go downfield more than his career numbers would suggest.  He's tough, smart and a good locker room and community guy.  You'd think by all this he is everything you could want in a QB...and for the Bills or the Browns, Jags...he CAN do what he did for us...and that is bring stability and good play to the quarterback position.  DO NOT think you are getting a guy who elevates the roster around him and makes a key play when it matters most.  He isn't that guy.  The thing about Smith that doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and you don't see it just watching a game unless you are looking for it, is that Smith will make "nothing out of something" several times a game and especially at crucial moments.  His pocket presence is awful.  Let me explain this.  When Smith takes a snap, stays in the pocket, does his reads, sets and throughs...he can throw a beautiful NFL pass...even downfield.  The problem is, Smith often will take a snap and with the slightest bit of percieved pocket getting a little tight...takes off and runs...and not aiming to throw, just to run.  He misses guys breaking open all the time because of this.  It doesn't go down as an interception, it doesn't go down as a sack.  It doesn't go down as an incomplete pass.  It looks like a two yard run on the stat sheet and keeps his other numbers from looking bad.  A fan just watching the game will get the impression that Smith is "improvising" or "buying time" when actually he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket and taken a good play and made it into something completely unproductive.  He does this at various points of a football game, but the more crucial the situation, the worse his tendency to do this becomes.  Here is an example of what I am talking about.  He does this all the time.  You won't see Brady or Brees etc do this...they "win" in the pocket.  This alone is why Alex Smith is good and not great.  Just understand that is what you'd be getting...good but not great...a stablizing player at QB, but not a guy who elevates the talent around him.  We've seen enough of Mahomes the beleive the kid is a rare talent and looking forward to that era here.  If you get Smith, you'll be happy for a while.  He will get you to the next franchise QB..but he IS NOT a franchise QB. 

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Zerovotlz

[Wayne Arnold]

Have opposing defensive players ever said after a game the key to shutting him down was "making him a quarterback"? On multiple occasions?

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Have opposing defensive players ever said after a game the key to shutting him down was "making him a quarterback"? On multiple occasions?

Like I said...he'd be a great fit there...you'd be happy to have him....he'd be an upgrade over what you have...all I am saying is to temper your expectations.  He was the right guy at the right time for us...the Chiefs were in shambles when we got him...he served his purpose.  

It is worth adding, that if Mahomes hadn't shone like he has so far, this wouldn't be a topic....you can do alot worse at QB than Alex Smith.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Thanks . I really appreciate the summation but...let's ignore the madness that Wayne and Savior Peterman. put out.

 

We kind of have a cheaper bridge in Tyrod. He can do with his legs what Smith does with his arm, when he isn't forced into whatever you call Rico's system. If you look over the numbers from 2015 and 2016 (when he had an OC who knew how to use him) he has similar completion %, Y/A and TD:Int ratio as Smith. Smith has more yards, obviously, coming from the Andy Reid philopspohy of Pass, Pass, Pass, and when you get tired of that, Pass (Sorry, that's what I hear nonstop from fans here in Philly)

 

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

We know Tyrod isn't the answer. But why on Earth would we spend MORE money by putting a new guy who we know is not the long term answer on the roster to be a bridge for the rookie it seems we are to inevitably take?

Edited January 9, 2018 by WhitewalkerInPhilly

[billsfan_34]

37 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Smith will be available and for a team like Buffalo, he'd be a good bridge to whoever your next franchise QB is.  Let me tell you now, he isn't more than that.  You will look at his sparkling stat sheet and see that he throws for a high completion percentage, doesn't turn the ball over, and this season, his YPA was pretty good as he did go downfield more than his career numbers would suggest.  He's tough, smart and a good locker room and community guy.  You'd think by all this he is everything you could want in a QB...and for the Bills or the Browns, Jags...he CAN do what he did for us...and that is bring stability and good play to the quarterback position.  DO NOT think you are getting a guy who elevates the roster around him and makes a key play when it matters most.  He isn't that guy.  The thing about Smith that doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and you don't see it just watching a game unless you are looking for it, is that Smith will make "nothing out of something" several times a game and especially at crucial moments.  His pocket presence is awful.  Let me explain this.  When Smith takes a snap, stays in the pocket, does his reads, sets and throughs...he can throw a beautiful NFL pass...even downfield.  The problem is, Smith often will take a snap and with the slightest bit of percieved pocket getting a little tight...takes off and runs...and not aiming to throw, just to run.  He misses guys breaking open all the time because of this.  It doesn't go down as an interception, it doesn't go down as a sack.  It doesn't go down as an incomplete pass.  It looks like a two yard run on the stat sheet and keeps his other numbers from looking bad.  A fan just watching the game will get the impression that Smith is "improvising" or "buying time" when actually he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket and taken a good play and made it into something completely unproductive.  He does this at various points of a football game, but the more crucial the situation, the worse his tendency to do this becomes.  Here is an example of what I am talking about.  He does this all the time.  You won't see Brady or Brees etc do this...they "win" in the pocket.  This alone is why Alex Smith is good and not great.  Just understand that is what you'd be getting...good but not great...a stablizing player at QB, but not a guy who elevates the talent around him.  We've seen enough of Mahomes the beleive the kid is a rare talent and looking forward to that era here.  If you get Smith, you'll be happy for a while.  He will get you to the next franchise QB..but he IS NOT a franchise QB. 

 

Im sure you know much more about him than any of us, but what I see is a pocket collapsing and every receiver blanketed except 1 in the flat that has pick 6 written all over it. Maybe find some other film?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Thanks . I really appreciate the summation but...let's ignore the madness that Wayne and Savior Peterman. put out.

 

We kind of have a cheaper bridge in Tyrod. He can do with his legs what Smith does with his feet, when he isn't forced into whatever you call Rico's system. If you look over the numbers from 2015 and 2016 (when he had an OC who knew how to use him) he has similar completion %, Y/A and TD:Int ratio as Smith. Smith has more yards, obviously, coming from the Andy Reid philopspohy of Pass, Pass, Pass, and when you get tired of that, Pass (Sorry, that's what I hear nonstop from fans here in Philly)

 

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

We know Tyrod isn't the answer. But why on Earth would we spend MORE money by putting a new guy who we know is not the long term answer on the roster to be a bridge for the rookie it seems we are to inevitably take?

If Taylor returns, that’s equivalent to surrender 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Is he better than TT?    If he is the same and a pocket passes, he would look more like where the coaches want to go.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

4 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

If Taylor returns, that’s equivalent to surrender 

 

 

Hahahaha, that's a good one...

 

Or were you serious?

 

Look, I fully expect us to draft a rookie (emphasis for Wayne and Joe). But unless we throw all of the picks in the world at the Colts for Luck, hoping Irsay is high enough to take it, you better believe that it will cost is through the nose for whatever scrub we get. We live in a league where Sam Bradford and Brock Osweiler get paid like kings. Do you honestly think that Smith takes a deal that is less than that? If we are trading for him, what assets are you giving up for the same level of play as Tyrod?

 

It's a bad idea. How do people not see this?

[H2o]

If they give up Smith for a 4th I can deal with that. If they want anything more then I would pass. Not give up a 3rd or any kind of multiple picks for a game manager in his mid 30's. 

[Zerovoltz]

....for those of you wondering why you'd give up assets for Smith, then pay him....that's what I'd be asking also.  No reason to trade for and pay Smith...there will be other "bridge" QB's available, or just keep Tyrod and he can be the bridge if that works for you.  

[Real McClappy]

Op,

The video posted shows nearly flawless pass coverage by the opposing D and a pocket that completely collapsed. I will personally take your QB as a bridge that has lead you to the playoff 4 out of 5 years there with a 50-26 record as a starter. You haven't seen I guess what our current QB leaves on the field. 

 

Good luck with Mahomes. It gets so much worse if he flops. We just want to be competitive while grooming a rookie QB like you guys paved the way.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Real McCoy

[Thurman#1]

36 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Thanks . I really appreciate the summation but...let's ignore the madness that Wayne and Savior Peterman. put out.

 

We kind of have a cheaper bridge in Tyrod. He can do with his legs what Smith does with his feet, when he isn't forced into whatever you call Rico's system. If you look over the numbers from 2015 and 2016 (when he had an OC who knew how to use him) he has similar completion %, Y/A and TD:Int ratio as Smith. Smith has more yards, obviously, coming from the Andy Reid philopspohy of Pass, Pass, Pass, and when you get tired of that, Pass (Sorry, that's what I hear nonstop from fans here in Philly)

 

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

We know Tyrod isn't the answer. But why on Earth would we spend MORE money by putting a new guy who we know is not the long term answer on the roster to be a bridge for the rookie it seems we are to inevitably take?

 

Tyrod isn't cheap, not even for a bridge. It would cost us $15 mill more to keep him than to let him go, $10 mill more in 2018 and then $5 mill more in dead cap in 2019. He's not cheap.

 

And Smith has consistently put up better YPC and completion percentage numbers than Tyrod has managed except for that brief period in his first year starting when teams didn't know how to handle him. 

 

2017 YPC Alex Smith 8.0 (5th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.7 (25th)

2016 YPC Alex Smith 7.2 (18th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.9 (26th)

 

2017 Comp % Alex Smith 67.5% (3rd in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (18th) 

2016 Comp % Alex Smith 67.1% (6th in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (21st) 

 

Those are two specific stats and it's more complex than that, but they're the two stats you yourself pointed out. Smith is better, significantly so. We should be drafting someone high. Smith would not be a good choice as the long-term guy, but as a bridge he'd be better than Tyrod and not significantly more expensive, though Tyrod's cap hit is partly a year later.

 

Smith is also a guy who plays better from the pocket than Tyrod, and that's the one thing that McDermott has said is necessary for a QB in his system.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Pbomb]

28 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Thanks . I really appreciate the summation but...let's ignore the madness that Wayne and Savior Peterman. put out.

 

We kind of have a cheaper bridge in Tyrod. He can do with his legs what Smith does with his feet, when he isn't forced into whatever you call Rico's system. If you look over the numbers from 2015 and 2016 (when he had an OC who knew how to use him) he has similar completion %, Y/A and TD:Int ratio as Smith. Smith has more yards, obviously, coming from the Andy Reid philopspohy of Pass, Pass, Pass, and when you get tired of that, Pass (Sorry, that's what I hear nonstop from fans here in Philly)

 

This was the first year Tyrod had a halfway decent defense to help him out. It also was a year with an OC who tried to make him a drop back, three second passer at the same time that they shipped out his WR1, 2, 3 and 4 and brought in a gaggle of entirely new guys. 

 

We know Tyrod isn't the answer. But why on Earth would we spend MORE money by putting a new guy who we know is not the long term answer on the roster to be a bridge for the rookie it seems we are to inevitably take?

Because he would be a way better bridge qb, who cares about a couple million in cap room. Tyrod scored 2 offensive tds this year in 7 games against playoff teams. He is terrible against good competition. Case closed, time to move on. 

 

You cant be serious saying  tyrod and smith play on the same level

Edited January 9, 2018 by Pbomb

[Zerovoltz]

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

43 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

Hahahaha, that's a good one...

 

Or were you serious?

 

Look, I fully expect us to draft a rookie (emphasis for Wayne and Joe). But unless we throw all of the picks in the world at the Colts for Luck, hoping Irsay is high enough to take it, you better believe that it will cost is through the nose for whatever scrub we get. We live in a league where Sam Bradford and Brock Osweiler get paid like kings. Do you honestly think that Smith takes a deal that is less than that? If we are trading for him, what assets are you giving up for the same level of play as Tyrod?

 

It's a bad idea. How do people not see this?

 

You honestly believe Smith brings the same level of play as Tyrod? Smith will at least ATTEMPT contested passes.

 

[8-8 Forever?]

go get Kirk Cousins and Mike McCoy and be done with it.   go bills.  

Edited January 9, 2018 by 8-8 Forever?

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Tyrod isn't cheap, not even for a bridge. It would cost us $15 mill more to keep him than to let him go, $10 mill more in 2018 and then $5 mill more in dead cap in 2019. He's not cheap.

 

And Smith has consistently put up better YPC and completion percentage numbers than Tyrod has managed except for that brief period in his first year starting when teams didn't know how to handle him. 

 

2017 YPC Alex Smith 8.0 (5th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.7 (25th)

2016 YPC Alex Smith 7.2 (18th in the NFL) and Tyrod 6.9 (26th)

 

2017 Comp % Alex Smith 67.5% (3rd in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (18th) 

2016 Comp % Alex Smith 67.1% (6th in the NFL) and Tyrod 61.7% (21st) 

 

Those are two specific stats and it's more complex than that, but they're the two stats you yourself pointed out. Smith is better, significantly so. We should be drafting someone high. Smith would not be a good choice as the long-term guy, but as a bridge he'd be better than Tyrod and not significantly more expensive, though Tyrod's cap hit is partly a year later.

 

Smith is also a guy who plays better from the pocket than Tyrod, and that's the one thing that McDermott has said is necessary for a QB in his system.

So, you’ll settle for a different kind of QB aggravation which equals the same results?

Make no mistake, I worry OBD will settle as well..

[Thurman#1]

13 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

So, you’ll settle for a different kind of QB aggravation which equals the same results?

Make no mistake, I worry OBD will settle as well..

 

 

No, I would settle for a better QB. Which would mean better results. Smith is a better QB. 

 

I would be very happy with that in a bridge QB, which is how I would want us to take Smith, drafting a QB high at the same time.

[BigBuff423]

I agree with some of the posters above that your original selection is not the best to make your point as Defense was quite good....BUT, I will say in looking at that play a couple times, Alex did do something that would make me frustrated as a fan. I can't see the number so I don't know the name of the WR, but the slot guy breaking over the middle of the field - that was virtually empty by NFL standards - had him breaking toward the middle and positioned so the Defender was behind him with the Safety still 5-7 yards away and Alex didn't pull the trigger at the right moment (or at all). The DE had just crested with Fisher toward the pocket but was not "on" Alex when the WR broke toward the middle, the ball had to come out at that very moment and it would have been a simple completion across the middle. 

 

Every other WR was blanketed, and even the flat screen would have been 0 yards because the Defender was on his way to him just as he turned around to look for the ball. The only place to go was the slot WR and it had to be done right at the break toward the middle. However, IF he had done that, little doubt the play would have been successful. Thanks for sharing...

 

As for A. Smith, I couldn't agree with you more about him being a "bridge" QB, but for us Bills fans, a bridge QB wins us 2 more games and probably that Jax game which gives the fan base even more hope. That said, hope Mahomes is everything you believe him to be - but it will take a couple years to find out. Thanks again.

[CEN-CAL17]

Try watching Tyrod for 3 years and then tell us “Alex Smith isn’t anything special”.

 

Hes exactly what the Bills need for 2-3 years while he grooms. If Tyrod can help get this team to 9 wins (whatever help you think that might have been) The Bills would be ok with Smith.

 

Think about that....  Tyrod will never be a #1 QB after leaving Buffalo.

Edited January 9, 2018 by 1ZAYDAY1