How difficult will it be to get back in 2018?

[dollars 2 donuts]

I know it seems all about personnel today, but I can't help but think about this, as well.

 

if the Bills (and AFC, generally) can't finally get relief as a result of drop off from Brady, Ben and Rivers it is going to get crowded near the top 6.

 

Patriots - 41 next year...please be going on 50 at that point, but unlikely.

Dolphins - would Tannehill have made a difference?  2-0 against us in 2016.  We lucked out with that injury.

Jets - projected 90 million in cap space and they draft high...they will either draft or buy a stud qb in 2018

 

Steelers - again, frustrating how these aging qbs aren't really aging.

Ravens - one play away from the streak being 18 years.

Cincy - they are a better team than the way they played this year, but we may have been helped by the re-upping of Marvin...what changes?

Browns - no threat yet, but they will be getting one of the best, if not the best, qb in the draft.

 

Jags - hate Marrone, but they are one QB away from being damn good and a dominating team.

Tenn - This I believe is the paper tiger. I like Marriota, but saving Mularkey's job helps us and others.  I believe they are out in 2018.

Texans - They frighten me.  I wanted Watson and before he got hurt you are kidding yourself if you don't think they may have laid claim to our playoff spot.

Colts - aren't that good even with Luck...but at least they'll have him this year.

 

KC - Mahommes comes into his own in 2018?

Chargers- Rivers get old and go away, please.

Raiders - 12-4 in 16 and a hiccup in 2017.  Do you really think Chucky won't have them competing?

Broncos - they'll get one of the top 3 qbs in the 2018 draft.

 

Before we knew the Sabres were a tire fire I would argue with friends who thought they would challenge for the playoffs by saying there were definitely at least 9 Eastern teams better than the Sabres.

 

Are there 10 AFC teams definitely worse than the Bills in 2018?  

 

I hope so, but I'm not sure.

 

Teams that will be the biggest obstacles in 2018: Texans, Ravens, Raiders, Dolphins, and maybe the Colts.

 

Thank you for ending the drought, Bills.  Please do what you can to start a playoff streak next December.

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Max Fischer]

I agree. Next year won’t be any easier and the Bills will need to take yet another leap to make the playoffs.  The good news: all those teams look at breakdown the same way and likely shutter to think how much Buffalo can improve with a new QB, seasoned rookies and all the draft picks.  

[zevo]

I think it will be a couple years before we really have a chance again

[PIZ]

Get a QB, pass rush, linebacker, and a true compliment to Shady and we are as good as anyone.

[entropyrules]

agree......I was chatting with my brother after the game and thought they will probably take a slight step back (6-10 or 7-9) next year and then battling for a playoff spot in 2019,

 

I am torn with this coaching staff.. they really got a lot out of a fairly mediocre squad of players. Then they have those horrible in game decisions which makes me think they aren't taking this team very far into the playoffs even if they slip in each year as a wild card.

 

Its really sheer torture being a Bills or Sabres fan

[John in Jax]

14 minutes ago, entropyrules said:

Its really sheer torture being a Bills or Sabres fan

Truer words have never, ever been written!

[PolishDave]

It depends on how they manage the draft this year and free agency.

 

And it depends on what changes (if any) are made on the offensive coaching staff.

 

With the right changes and right upgrades, this team could potentially win the AFC East.

 

With the wrong moves, they could become a 2-14 team.

[Woodman19]

Depends on the offseason, while we may have to change big pieces in the offense I could also see us drastically improve the defense to offset it if we add a good coverage LB and pass rush.

[Big Turk]

Tannehill usually played terrible against the Bills save for last year under Rex

[mjt328]

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

Edited January 8, 2018 by mjt328

[richardb1952]

18 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

 

Totally agree.  Year 2 of "The Process" needs to make the most of FA and the draft to continue to improve the roster.  While I liked the chemistry of this current team, I also believe they will upgrade from 7 - 10 positions on this roster.  I believe that some of the conservatism in McDermotts in game decision making had a lot to do with the limitations of the current roster.  I also believe it is hard to hit on 7 - 10 additions.  Let's hope that 2018 draft is as profitable as was the 2017 draft class.  Bills might not make the playoffs next year and actually have a better roster.

[Dorkington]

We got A LOT of lucky bounces this year. We'll need to shore up our LB corps, and find a more talented QB. (this is assuming we keep our secondary in tact) On the coaching front, we need a better offensive play designer/coordinator imo. 

[GunnerBill]

I suspect next year will see a small step back with a rookie QB.  I can see a 7-9, 8-8 type season but I think we will be in with a chance on a slightly easier schedule.  I expect us to be in that same 7 to 9 win range in 2018. But with a 2nd year QB in 2019 and two years of solid drafts and FAs around him and all the dead money from Dareus and the like off the books I expect us to be a division winner.  

[Mango]

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

 

 

Agreed. We made a few moves this year that still haven’t been an improvement. RG, RB2, and WR are all moves that we made moves in with zero or negative improvement. 

 

Its not lost, but if those types of moves continue, 6 wins is right in our wheel house. Not that we weren’t deserving, but we did also get bounces Bills fans are not accustomed to. 

 

IMO we need to hit much more than we miss in the draft this year to just sustain what we did this year. 

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not confident about next year.  Neither our offensive nor defensive rosters are loaded with young talent.   Our O and D statistics were underwhelming.   The only stat that looked good was turnover differential and turnovers can be fickle.

 

But I don't know how good Beane is.  Maybe  he'll strike gold in the draft and again in free agency.  

[Jerome007]

It'll be very hard. A lot depends on the draft picks and trades/signings, on how Father Time affects some of the core group, etc. A LOT of unknowns going into year. Nobody knows with any certainty.

 

Last year the Bills were a few plays from being playoff bound with Rex Ryan! Some made field goals and tackles, coach challenges, and boom. An really, many years of that drought could have been playoff years if not for a few plays. The difference between winning and losing is often so thin that I do laugh at the "expert predictions".  Sure none expect the Browns to be 12-4 next year or the Patriots to go 3-13. But otherwise yes 6-10 or 10-6 can be had by a few select plays.

 

I had posted this paragraph before, and I reposted it, as NFL fans in general need a slap in the face sometimes. Only 4 of last year's 12 playoff teams rejoined the dance this year. A lot of teams can go from 6-10 to 10-6, or 15-1 to 6-10... I'm soooooooo glad the drought is over but now prepare for the "longest time without a playoff win" media rambling.

[Chuck Schick]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills have won between 6-9 games every season for the last seven years.  I don't believe this team was any "better" than those that came before it.  I don't believe we got "special" coaching from Sean McDermott.  We finally had some lucky bounces go our way in close games, and the rash of quarterback injuries in the AFC allowed us to have a chance with only 9 wins under our belt.

 

It's highly unlikely everything falls our way like that again in 2018.  If the team does not improve greatly in several areas, I highly doubt they will return to the playoffs again next year.

 

Despite getting to the playoffs, I expect a massive overhaul in the offseason.  We could easily see in the area of 10 new starters across the roster.  The next few months are going to be crucial towards the overall success of Brandon Beane and McDermott.  While 2017 was mostly about purging unwanted players from the roster, this will be our first true glimpse at rebuilding.  They need to make the right decision on whether to keep or fire Rick Dennison.  And if they move on, they need to hire the right guy this time.  They need to properly address the quarterback position, both in free agency and the draft.  And they need to get a nice haul from the 2018 draft class, which they have so highly invested in.

Welcome to the new NFL.   Loading up with big name players is out, and finding competent lower-cost players that fit specific roles is in.

If you can't give McDermott credit for doing a pretty damn good job of that in Year 1, I don't know what to tell you.  

 

As for the "lucky bounces" thing.....can you tell me any sport you've played from high school on where "luck" actually determined the winner of a game?   For me, the better team is going to end up winning 99 times out 100.  A play or two here and there does not win games despite what the highlight shows make it seem.  

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Chuck Schick

[corta765]

OP you make some really good points and this was well thought out. That said remember the Bills plan is if they score 24 pts they believe their defense can keep the opposing team under that. It's very similar to what Minnesota is doing and if you look at the Vikings I doubt you'd say Case Keenum is better then a host of the teams they've beaten this year but here we are. So it's very hard in general to tell next year because things change so much.

 

I think the AFCE in general is going to be a buzz saw for all of the teams even NE just because of how everyone is adding pieces across the board.

 

If Buffalo goes 6-2 again at home they will be in the playoff race until the end again, that may be the biggest thing really is to defend the dirt as McD says.

[QCity]

I think those with tempered expectations for next year are correct. The rebuild is still in its infancy and doesn't really begin until the 2018 draft. In fact, there are still major pieces on this roster that will likely be shed.

[Tatonka68]

Bills cast out Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Darby, Ragland, Dareus among others and made the playoffs with less talent. A strong off season signing good free agents and a strong draft then it is possible. The Bills are as good as any one else. The old Bills are DEAD, trust "the process". The arrow is pointing up.