ESPN 2018 NFL Draft QB Primer: Kiper & McShay Breakdown & Analysis

[Paulus]

Keep Taylor, maybe trade him at some point, and draft a QB high. I still think the Bills take Mayfield in the first.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, Yav said:

Cousins. Perfect fit and if you look at his numbers and who his WR are in Washington you'll realize he did a lot with nothing. He lost his top 2 guys and still had a great year. 

 

You put Cousins on the Bills with Shady, Clay and Benj. and you'll have a damn good offense. 

Keep them draft picks and fill the D-line, O-line and LB's and get Shady a real deal backup and you're talking a true contender.

 

 

No way does Cousins come to Buffalo and at the price tag for landing him I would not want him.  Do you really want that much cap space eaten up by a guy who has not really proven himself as an elite QB?

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I can't tell you where I have them on my overall big board because my overall big board isn't yet built.  I am too far behind on a lot of other position groups.  I can give you my QB rankings which are currently broadly:

 

1. Josh Rosen - top 5 grade

2. Sam Darnold - mid 1st round grade

3. Baker Mayfield - mid/late 1st round grade

4. Mason Rudolph - 1st/2nd borderline

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

5. Lamar Jackson - late 2nd round grade

6. Josh Allen - 3rd round grade

7. Luke Falk - 4th round grade

 

Haven't looked at enough of anyone else to include them before people start chucking other names at me.  They are the 7 I feel I have watched enough tape to form a solid opinion on.  I have some opinions on some of the later names but they are just off the tv opinions not evaluations.  

 

 

EDIT:  I'll explain again my grades do not necessarily correspond with where I think they will be picked.  Nor do they correspond with where I have ranked them in the whole class.  A mid first means I have a player's tape graded in the middle of the objective first round scale that I have every year for each round.  

So based on all of this there is a pretty good chance we can get a good prospect without having to give up draft picks (other then the 1st round pick we use to draft the qb)

 

That is a pretty good scenario

[gonzo1105]

I think IF the Bills go the FA route or veteran route it would be Alex Smith. I think they will look at all QBs in the draft not just the top 3

[The_Dude]

I think we're now in the 'Alex Smith and Mason Rudolph' world. 

 

I'd really get to know Mason Rudolph if you don't know who he is. He's got "process" written all over him. 

[Southern Bills Fan]

Alex Smith and Peterman next year. Bank it.

[PIZ]

On 1/5/2018 at 7:00 AM, GunnerBill said:

I can't tell you where I have them on my overall big board because my overall big board isn't yet built.  I am too far behind on a lot of other position groups.  I can give you my QB rankings which are currently broadly:

 

1. Josh Rosen - top 5 grade

2. Sam Darnold - mid 1st round grade

3. Baker Mayfield - mid/late 1st round grade

4. Mason Rudolph - 1st/2nd borderline

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

5. Lamar Jackson - late 2nd round grade

6. Josh Allen - 3rd round grade

7. Luke Falk - 4th round grade

 

Haven't looked at enough of anyone else to include them before people start chucking other names at me.  They are the 7 I feel I have watched enough tape to form a solid opinion on.  I have some opinions on some of the later names but they are just off the tv opinions not evaluations.  

 

 

EDIT:  I'll explain again my grades do not necessarily correspond with where I think they will be picked.  Nor do they correspond with where I have ranked them in the whole class.  A mid first means I have a player's tape graded in the middle of the objective first round scale that I have every year for each round.  

 

How are you qualified to do this?  Not being a prick at all.  Just wondering if you scout, or if you just do this for fun.  I like your 1 - 4....hope we get one of them.

 

Who do you think is the best fit for the current Bills offense?

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by PIZ

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I can't tell you where I have them on my overall big board because my overall big board isn't yet built.  I am too far behind on a lot of other position groups.  I can give you my QB rankings which are currently broadly:

 

1. Josh Rosen - top 5 grade

2. Sam Darnold - mid 1st round grade

3. Baker Mayfield - mid/late 1st round grade

4. Mason Rudolph - 1st/2nd borderline

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

5. Lamar Jackson - late 2nd round grade

6. Josh Allen - 3rd round grade

7. Luke Falk - 4th round grade

 

Haven't looked at enough of anyone else to include them before people start chucking other names at me.  They are the 7 I feel I have watched enough tape to form a solid opinion on.  I have some opinions on some of the later names but they are just off the tv opinions not evaluations.  

 

 

EDIT:  I'll explain again my grades do not necessarily correspond with where I think they will be picked.  Nor do they correspond with where I have ranked them in the whole class.  A mid first means I have a player's tape graded in the middle of the objective first round scale that I have every year for each round.  

 

I have read a few times about the Bills liking White from WKU...what the heck...the 2017 White did just fine, and of course there has been the Keane buzz.  Do you have grades on either?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Notice in that article that there are a lot of teams that you can make a good case for also looking to move up and get a QB.

 

Remember that the teams that hold the highest picks are not in the business of doing the Buffalo Bills favors.  They will sell to the highest bidder.  In the article, they make the reasonable suggestion that there might be ten teams drafting ahead of us who could use a QB as much or more than we do. The "money" that you spend to move up is almost always draft picks.  Let's use the NFL draft value chart so see how much  MORE some other bidders have to spend by using their first round draft pick compared to our {1st #24}.  What I am getting at is what EXTRA we would have to spend to just meet their opening bid- not the total cost.  Regardless of the original plan, our success this year does not put us in a good place for moving up.

 

Other bidder      {1st # X}     difference in points                  What extra change we would

                                                                   compared to {1st #22}            have to spend just to match

Jets.................. #6              820                                {1st  ~ #21}

Fish...................#11            472                                {2nd    #11}

Skins.................#13            370                                {2nd    #21}

Ravens               #16            220                                {3rd     #10}

 

Do you really want to weaken the Bills compared to those other teams by this much extra? Realize that our later round picks makes this type of picture increasingly bad, as their value falls faster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[starrymessenger]

To me there are only three guys who you might consider moving up for, Rosen, Darnold and Allen (not saying it would be cost efficient). Moving up for either of the first two is not happening because the teams at the top of the draft order will not be trading out. Those two guys are headed to Cleveland and NY IMO.  I think Allen might warrant a modest trade up. I also think that if he is falls a bit and is there when we first pick the Bills could draft him. His physical attributes for playing the position are at the very top of this class. He has good intangibles. He's not nearly as polished/ready as Wentz was, but he's bigger, stronger and carries an top end NFL calibre cannon like no other in this class. He and Darnold have the highest ceilings IMO. Both are in need of coaching/ development and neither can be counted on to start. I'm a little puzzled why Darnold's risks/negatives don't budge the needle at all, while Allen's generate so much critical comment. They both have a lot to prove and a road to travel. 

I just don't think that Mason Rudolph will be regarded as good enuf, even if he is there when we pick. Mayfield is out of the question. There is no way Beane will pick a smurf. Jackson could be possible if he is there with our second pick in the second round, but it really depends on whether they believe he can execute from the pocket which appears to be unsettled, especially after the TaxSlayer fiasco. 

My suspicion is that they will try to trade for a vet good enuf to start - A. Smith, or compete for a UFA like Bridgewater if he is not extended. If so they may not draft any of the front runners and look instead for a diamond in the later rounds - Mike Smith if he makes day 3 (doubtful IMO).

i think the braintrust sees an opportunity to seriously challenge for the division next year with a good draft and FA and they have credibility as talent evaluators so why not. I think these guys are in a hurry and in the win now mode. 

[BigDingus]

I posted this in another thread, but I think I need to say it again, and why I think it's a mistake not to take a QB:

 

People always say "lots of holes to fill!" as if the QB position isn't a glaring hole and hasn't been for 18 years, when discussing whether it's worth trading away picks to move up in the draft... 

The Bills have had the longest playoff drought in NFL history, and therefore are equating us getting in with some kind of sustainable success attributed to the QB. That's not the case, and look at all the other bad teams that HAVE made the playoffs sooner than us, and how they still weren't good for long after with those QBs.

The Browns are now the longest active drought, but they got in before us. They made it with Kelly Holcomb (who almost beat the Steelers in those playoffs). The Redskins before Cousins made it in several times, but nobody remembers their QBs. The Bucs made it in with Jeff Garcia. The Jags made it in with David Garrard (and won a game). The Dolphins made it in with Chad Pennington. The Jets made it in with Mark Sanchez. The Titans made it in with Kerry Collins. The Broncos made it in with Tim Tebow, and before that Jake Plummer. The Rams made it in with Marc Bulger. The Bears made it in with Rex Grossman & later Jay Cutler. The Eagles made it in with Mike Vick & later Nick Foles. 

I'm glad we got the monkey off our back, but this doesn't mean we're suddenly settled at the QB position. It's still a glaring hole, and something we should seriously consider in the draft just as we were looking to do heading into the 2017 season.

 

2 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Alex Smith and Peterman next year. Bank it.

 

I'd be ok with that, although I'd hope we'd take someone in the later rounds this year to develop behind them.

Edited January 5, 2018 by BigDingus

[Bill Murray]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Notice in that article that there are a lot of teams that you can make a good case for also looking to move up and get a QB.

 

Remember that the teams that hold the highest picks are not in the business of doing the Buffalo Bills favors.  They will sell to the highest bidder.  In the article, they make the reasonable suggestion that there might be ten teams drafting ahead of us who could use a QB as much or more than we do. The "money" that you spend to move up is almost always draft picks.  Let's use the NFL draft value chart so see how much  MORE some other bidders have to spend by using their first round draft pick compared to our {1st #24}.  What I am getting at is what EXTRA we would have to spend to just meet their opening bid- not the total cost.  Regardless of the original plan, our success this year does not put us in a good place for moving up.

 

Other bidder      {1st # X}     difference in points                  What extra change we would

                                                                   compared to {1st #22}            have to spend just to match

Jets.................. #6              820                                {1st  ~ #21}

Fish...................#11            472                                {2nd    #11}

Skins.................#13            370                                {2nd    #21}

Ravens               #16            220                                {3rd     #10}

 

Do you really want to weaken the Bills compared to those other teams by this much extra? Realize that our later round picks makes this type of picture increasingly bad, as their value falls faster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i would give up a 1st and a 2nd to move up this year to match the fish, skins, and ravens.  i wouldnt give up two firsts this year to match the Jets however.  Honestly, im not sold on any of these guys including Rosen and Darnold.  When everyone thinks about trading up for the franchise guy, they imagine trading up for Luck or Peyton Manning.  I think locks like that are very rare and i dont think any of these guys are locks. Looking at QBs taken in the top 10 since 2000, its very hit or miss.  I think you have to take one if you are within striking distance, but you cant bet the farm on it IMO:

 

QBs taking in the top 10 since 2000

Mike Vick

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwich

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Alex Smith

Vince Young

Matt Leinart

JaMarcus Russell

Matt Ryan

Matt Stafford

Mark Sanchez

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Jake Locker

Blaine Gabbert

Andrew Luck

RGIII

Ryan Tannehill <- i was shocked to see he was taken 8th overall

Blake Bortles

Jameis Winston

Marcus Mariota

Jared Goff

Carson Wentz

Mitchell Trubisky

Patrick Mahomes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Bill Murray

[Manther]

14 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Pretty surprised Lamar Jackson Declared

Me too

[njbuff]

As we hit the playoff game on Sunday, the Bills might be in a dilemma that they thought they wouldn't be in at the start of the season........................

 

What will they do at the QB position?

 

We thought it was going to be cut and dry at the start of the season........... as we thought the Bills will be bad enough to get one of the top picks on their own.

 

But now any one of us can bring up any scenario and it wouldn't be far fetched, as your idea could be just as crazy as mine and neither of us will be wrong.

 

It can be anywhere from trading for Luck or taking Mike White in the third round as to being the Bills starting QB.

 

its pretty fascinating.

 

Would it shock anyone that with NO PRESSURE whatsoever that Taylor could solidify his position as starter for 2018? 

[H2o]

On 1/5/2018 at 7:00 AM, GunnerBill said:

1. Josh Rosen - top 5 grade

2. Sam Darnold - mid 1st round grade

3. Baker Mayfield - mid/late 1st round grade

4. Mason Rudolph - 1st/2nd borderline

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

5. Lamar Jackson - late 2nd round grade

6. Josh Allen - 3rd round grade

7. Luke Falk - 4th round grade

I agree with these pretty much.

 

Rosen reminds me of Goff. I think he will be successful in the NFL and will be the 1st QB taken. 

 

I still think Mayfield is the best QB in the draft and is a top 15 player overall, but that is an opinion of my own. When I watch him play he reminds me of a more athletic Brees. People shouldn't base their entire opinion off of the UGA game, look at his entire body of work. Not saying that's you Gunner, just people in general. 

 

Darnold screams Jeff George to me for some reason. He is a guy with a good arm, can make all the throws, will wow you at times, but I just don't know if he'll ever put it all together. I do understand the interest of QB needy teams though. 

 

Rudolph is a solid 2nd Round guy. Great size, good arm, but what is he? He had the best WR group of any of the QB's in the upcoming draft. Two  possible first rounders catching passes has to be taken in to account. I've seen him on and I've seen him off in games for different reasons. I've seen him make big time throws then miss easy ones with a clean pocket. I've seen his receivers bail him out on badly thrown deep passes or other throws, but then some on the money. Consistency and ball placement worry me with him. I also wonder if he can process quick enough for the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen is the biggest boom or bust guy. Was it his team around him that held him back or is he just not that talented? Great arm, very athletic, good size, but does he have it mentally? Where do you take a chance on the guy at? I would take him with our second 2nd Round pick if he is still there.

 

I am not sold at all on Jackson being an NFL QB and think he should have gone back to school. I have him as a late 4th/early 5th Round QB prospect. I just don't think he will succeed at the position. He is too inaccurate and flawed imo. He is a freak athlete though and I think he can play WR ala Pryor or Edelman. He would probably be the best of the 3 to make that switch. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

19 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Alex Smith and Peterman next year. Bank it.

 

.....and Rudolph as their safe, un-sexy pick around #22..........allegedly, Andy will take a 2nd for Alex which is reasonable.....

[SoCal Deek]

What jumped out at me as both sad and tragic is that the Bills, Dolphins and Jets are listed as Teams in need of a first round quarterback and yet there sit the Patriots with the oldest starter since Moses and no backup to speak of ....and yet the OTHER three AFC East teams all need a quarterback?  Sheeeesh!

[1billsfan]

20 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Alex Smith and Peterman next year. Bank it.

 

IMO, Alex Smith just doesn't line up with what seems to be their player personnel philosophy. 

 

aging QB

big cap hit

giving up a 2nd rd draft pick

a QB not not trusting in his WRs

 

Also, I don't see them going into the 2018 season with the Mahomes vs Smith debate served on a platter for the media which would be a constant drum beat, and one that most probably wouldn't be in their favor. Do they want to hear, "You could have drafted Mahomes on a rookie contract and now you have an aging Alex Smith making how much????"

 

Right now, I don't see how the Bills move on from Taylor (in free agency period especially) given that the Bills are in the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. I think that the Bills sit tight, wait for the draft, see if a QB falls to them in the first round that they want. If that doesn't happen, then they use the high draft picks on positions of need and probably let Taylor and Peterman's have a competition for the starting job (with Peterman having to look like the knockout winner). Doing it this way doesn't force things, they probably really want to see what happens in the draft before making any moves at the QB position.

 

 

[hemma]

I don't think they'll want to throw the entire draft at moving up, so It looks like we'll be carved out of the top 4 QBs. 

 

I believe we'll have 8 picks in total & I think they look to trade a 2nd for a vet QB and use 4 picks on LB/DT + 2 on OL + 1 CB (give or take).  

 

[Da webster guy]

On 1/5/2018 at 6:38 AM, njbuff said:

I could see the Bills gambling on Teddy Bridgewater and hope they hit a home run there. When heathy Bridgewater is a much better fit for the Bills offense.

 

And to cover their tracks, the Bills would probably take one of the QB's they like in the second or third round.

 

If Bridgewater is healthy in 2018, it could be a major coupe for Buffalo.

agreed.   We need some serious help at Dline and LB, WR and Oline.  If we could avoid burning a pick on a QB it would be really sweet.