Keep the picks or just get a QB?

[billspro]

I am all for trading up for a QB, but only if they look like a franchise guy. 

 

I would not trade up into the top ten for any of the Qbs in this draft. Cleveland is going to take a QB 1st overall, so one guy will be off the board. Darnold has had trouble with decision making this year, Rosen does not seem to have the attitude of a franchise Qb, Allen does not have the stats, and Mayfield does not have the size. 

 

I might be willing to trade up into the teens for Mayfield or Allen, I would also be okay waiting to see if one of those guys drops to us. This does seem like a deep QB class so we might fair better drafting one in the second round and having a vetran QB start next year (Taylor, Keenum, Bradford, Bridewater, etc.).

[BuffaloRebound]

Plausible scenario where Cleveland takes Rosen, Giants take Barkley, and Indy trades out of #3.  Would Bills give up our 2 #1's and a #1 next year for Darnold?

[BigDingus]

9 minutes ago, I_want_2_BILL_Lieve said:

 

We also had a TE be our leading receiver with just over 500 yards. A QB that throws with anticipation lowers the sack total.  I think that those are on the QB. And by the way, I like TT. But you and I disagree on how to build a team. 

 

 

 

His quote was wrong anyway. The OL is not responsible for TT hanging on to the ball for too long. He holds on to it longer than all but 2 QB's in the league, and that's including everyone who started this year, not just 32 players.

[billspro]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Plausible scenario where Cleveland takes Rosen, Giants take Barkley, and Indy trades out of #3.  Would Bills give up our 2 #1's and a #1 next year for Darnold?

 

I would rather take Allen or Mayfield later in the draft. I don't see a huge separation between them as prospects. 

 

I also don't like drafting sophmore QB's. I can't think of any that became successful. 

[GunnerBill]

So in a situation where people want to Bills to trade up to #3 or #4:

 

#4 takes both 2017 1sts and one of our 2nds. 

#3 takes both 2017 1sts and either both 2nds or our 2018 1st in all likelihood.  

 

That is too rich for me unless Rosen is still somehow sitting in the green room.  

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So in a situation where people want to Bills to trade up to #3 or #4:

 

#4 takes both 2017 1sts and one of our 2nds. 

#3 takes both 2017 1sts and either both 2nds or our 2018 1st in all likelihood.  

 

That is too rich for me unless Rosen is still somehow sitting in the green room.  

 

This is reasonable. How much for who's there. If McBean is convinced X is our guy, and he's still there. Then yeah. I'm OK with #4. But the QB position is always over-drafted. But you have to until you find your guy. 

 

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That WAS the 2005 pick.  Or else where did it come from?  We didn't go into the 2004 draft with 2 first rounders.  We got the second one used to select Losman by moving our 2005 1st rounder forward a year.  The cost to do that was a 2nd round pick in 2014.  

 

If it is 2 first round picks invested in Losman then in order to select Losman and Evans over a two year period we would have needed 3 First Round picks to start with (2 for Losman and 1 for Evans).  

We only needed two to start with in 2004 and one to give up in 2005:

 

#13 2004, #22 2004 (from Dallas), #20 2005 (to Dallas)

 

I think you are hung up on the net #1 total and I agree; we didn’t lose a number one pick because we swapped them with Dallas. But we still invested two in Losman; one (2004) to take him and one (2005) to make it happen. 

 

So I amend my earlier statement. I agree to agree that we didn’t lose a first round pick and agree to disagree that we didn’t invest two first round picks. 

 

Hey, we half agree! ?

Edited January 4, 2018 by K-9

[GunnerBill]

Just now, K-9 said:

We only needed two to start with in 2004 and one to give up in 2005:

 

#13 2004, #22 2004 (from Dallas), #20 2005 (to Dallas)

 

I think you are hung up on the net #1 total and I agree; we didn’t lose a number one pick because we swapped them with Dallas. But we still invested two in Losman; one (2004) to take him and one (2005) to make it happen. 

 

So I amend my earlier statement. I agree to agree that we didn’t lose a first round pick and agree to disagree that we didn’t invest two first round picks. 

 

 

 

Okay but in terms of 1st rounders spent on QBs since Kelly we agree it is 4? Because we didn't lose one on Losman he didn't cost us an extra 1st.  

[K-9]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Okay but in terms of 1st rounders spent on QBs since Kelly we agree it is 4? Because we didn't lose one on Losman he didn't cost us an extra 1st.  

Done, my good man! Done! Let’s have another! 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Why not think of this draft as the top five  2018 QB's PLUS the top 6 available veterans who have already proven that they can take a snap under center AND win games in the NFL:   Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford?

 

Use one of those four top two round draft picks on a defensive tackle......AND use the other 3 for big uglies on the offensive line who put a hand in the dirt.   Which is better?   (NEW baby Toy & current ok o-line)  or (NEW older Toy with much improved o-line)  ?

 

Might that be a viable plan, rather than a 21 year old kid who has a 2/3 chance of flaming out?

 

I think that TT 's skill set is not really a good fit for the coaches and our players. (risking a throw far down field would let Shady run an extra 10 yards before meeting a safety).   I wonder if one of those vet's film, shows our coaches just what they want.

Edited January 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[BuffaloRebound]

I'm all for Bills going after their guy at QB this year.  Put everything on the table.  Our two 1sts, two 2nds, next years 1st, and Cordy should all be on table.  This year was a nice feel-good story, but it's all for nought if we don't find our QB.  Since Cleveland is in the business of collecting assets and not actually winning, maybe they trade out of #1. Certainly seems to have worked out for Rams and Philly going up and getting their guy.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...this gang didn't spend their time acquiring our best draft capital in years to blow it all on one guy........this Cousins for multiple picks AND 30 mil/yr is shear lunacy right up there with "Ditka's Draft For Ricky.....Vikes boatload for Herschel......Boy Danny Snyder's ransom for RG II 1/8"...ain't happenin' IMO.....THAT for mediocrity?.....can see this gang playing it close to the vest......possibly OL/DL and Rudolph (not start ready) with the 1sts, trading a 2nd to KC for Alex Smith (rumors are that is what Andy is looking for), and using the other 2nd for OL/DL...after that, stay tuned.......think Star will be a FA target so I am probably wrong.....

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The quickest way to a competitive roster is a franchise Quarterback.  

heh?    From where the Bills are drafting (and have been drafting for the last decade- the middle third of the first round), it would take basically take about 2.5 years of first and second round picks to get a shot at a top franchise QB.  Something like 2 or 3 first round picks and 3 or 2 second round picks.  That is 5 picks at positions where the "bust rate" is much lower- so maybe 4 sure starters are exchanged for a ? 50% chance at a superior QB.  IMO that is too much to pay.  50% x 2 = (hope) 100% to get a very good QB, who is than playing WITHOUT 10 or so better supporting players? ???   How does that 1 QB give you a competitive roster?  It give you a star QB that nobody will ever see, because he will spend his time flat on his back.  

Edited January 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[Virgil]

The more I think about it, I think I’m staying put unless it’s a minor trade up into the Teens for Rudolph or Mayfield.  I think Rudolph is the only one having a shot of still being there. 

 

If it doesn’t happen and we roll with Tyrod and get quality around him, I think we can sell the farm next year for a QB.  Most teams will have gotten them this year, so there’s less competition. And we need to solidify a lot of holes.  I think that adding the depth changes a few of those blowout losses this year and  we are a better team. 

 

This isn’t a positive vote for TT, but I just can’t justify losing so much potential talent for a “Maybe” QB. 

 

Ideally, I would want Cousins and use our picks like normal.  

 

I think we are a 10-6/11-5 team in that scenario and we have the cap room. 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Virgil

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

heh?    From where the Bills are drafting (and have been drafting for the last decade- the middle third of the first round), it would take basically take about 2.5 years of first and second round picks to get a shot at a top franchise QB.  Something like 2 or 3 first round picks and 3 or 2 second round picks.  That is 5 picks at positions where the "bust rate" is much lower- so maybe 4 sure starters are exchanged for a ? 50% chance at a superior QB.  IMO that is too much to pay.  50% x 2 = (hope) 100% to get a very good QB, who is than playing WITHOUT 10 or so better supporting players? ???   How does that 1 QB give you a competitive roster?  It give you a star QB that nobody will ever see, because he will spend his time flat on his back.  

 

Nonsense.  There was a franchise Quarterback sitting there at #10 last year and this franchise punted instead to take a defensive back (a player who I love by the way... but even if you draft the best corner in the league - a Revis II - a top 10 level Quarterback say Matt Ryan or Cam Newton is still worth more than that).  The Bills have drafted in the bottom third of the draft plenty.  Before 2014 we had NINE - count them - NINE losing seasons in a row including a 4-12 followed by 6-10, 6-10, 6-10. 

 

We have 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year... that's why everyone is talking about trade up scenarios because the Bills have the ammunition and this is a reasonably deep Quarterback class. And I am not actually advocating using ALL of that ammunition.  Unless Rosen slides to a spot where a team would entertain a trade I would not entertain moving up.  But if Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold are all off the board by the time Green Bay goes on the clock and you have the potentially Cousinsless Redskins at 15 right behind them then the Bills bundling their 2 1sts back into one for Mason Rudolph is not a move that is going to set the franchise back.  Quite the opposite. 

 

The fastest way to becoming a true contender in the NFL is to find a franchise Quarterback.  They very, very rarely come up in FA to the extent that a borderline franchise guy like Kirk Cousins will become the highest paid player in league history this spring..... so you better be ready to shoot for one in the draft. 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nonsense.  There was a franchise Quarterback sitting there at #10 last year and this franchise punted instead to take a defensive back (a player who I love by the way... but even if you draft the best corner in the league - a Revis II - a top 10 level Quarterback say Matt Ryan or Cam Newton is still worth more than that).  The Bills have drafted in the bottom third of the draft plenty.  Before 2014 we had NINE - count them - NINE losing seasons in a row including a 4-12 followed by 6-10, 6-10, 6-10. 

 

We have 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks this year... that's why everyone is talking about trade up scenarios because the Bills have the ammunition and this is a reasonably deep Quarterback class. And I am not actually advocating using ALL of that ammunition.  Unless Rosen slides to a spot where a team would entertain a trade I would not entertain moving up.  But if Rosen, Mayfield and Darnold are all off the board by the time Green Bay goes on the clock and you have the potentially Cousinsless Redskins at 15 right behind them then the Bills bundling their 2 1sts back into one for Mason Rudolph is not a move that is going to set the franchise back.  Quite the opposite. 

 

The fastest way to becoming a true contender in the NFL is to find a franchise Quarterback.  They very, very rarely come up in FA to the extent that a borderline franchise guy like Kirk Cousins will become the highest paid player in league history this spring..... so you better be ready to shoot for one in the draft. 

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

[jrober38]

26 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

 

The problem is the ammo isn't very valuable given that both us, and the Chiefs made the playoffs.

 

Moving up far enough to get a top QB is going to be nearly impossible this year given how many teams need QBs. 

[GreggTX]

If they are serious about making this team a SB contender, they have to draft a qb with mvp potential or stop pretending and I don't mean Cousins either.

[GreggTX]

8 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Cleveland is not trading this time man.  I'm not sure why people think they will but they set themselves up for this EXACT scenario.  Unless they pay Cousins, they are taking Darnold or Rosen at 1.  Believe it.  Nobody is going to do the Bills favors and pass on a franchise QB when they set themselves up for this just because Bills fans are desperate for a QB (and I'm not saying we shouldn't want one, because we should).

The furthest I can see us moving up is by trading with the 49'ers or Colts. I just hope we get the best one of the bunch.

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Why not think of this draft as the top five  2018 QB's PLUS the top 6 available veterans who have already proven that they can take a snap under center AND win games in the NFL:   Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford?

 

Use one of those four top two round draft picks on a defensive tackle......AND use the other 3 for big uglies on the offensive line who put a hand in the dirt.   Which is better?   (NEW baby Toy & current ok o-line)  or (NEW older Toy with much improved o-line)  ?

 

Might that be a viable plan, rather than a 21 year old kid who has a 2/3 chance of flaming out?

 

I think that TT 's skill set is not really a good fit for the coaches and our players. (risking a throw far down field would let Shady run an extra 10 yards before meeting a safety).   I wonder if one of those vet's film, shows our coaches just what they want.

I don't want ANY of those veteran QB's. There's a reason why they are available and we already have a mediocre QB anyways. We need to aim higher.

[Big Turk]

Depends who is available...if there is someone they genuinely like them trade the picks...of its someone they don't and they are just getting them because they need a QB them keep the picks because that would be thr worst thing that happens...

 

Spend draft capital to get a guy they dont really want and then have to replace him in a few years...

 

And least if its a guy they believe in it would be easier to stomach if he doesnt turn out