Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[Maine-iac]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's quite simple. The Bills offense isn't very good for a lot of reasons. It could be made better with a variety of changes that include aspects of coaching and personnel.  However, if you're going to change one thing to get the biggest impact, it would be changing the QB.  

 

A better QB would make the offense a lot better. A worse QB would make it a lot worse.  

 

 

  Taylor comes in and The Bill's offense was good in both 15 and 16.  We never changed the QB yet we are scoring almost a full TD less this year.  What do you think the biggest impact has been?  

[Teddy KGB]

5 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

  Taylor comes in and The Bill's offense was good in both 15 and 16.  We never changed the QB yet we are scoring almost a full TD less this year.  What do you think the biggest impact has been?  

 

Shady and Gilleslie haven’t led the offense this year.  

[twoandfourteen]

11 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

  Taylor comes in and The Bill's offense was good in both 15 and 16.  We never changed the QB yet we are scoring almost a full TD less this year.  What do you think the biggest impact has been?  

 

Defenses have realized that the best way to beat Tyrod Taylor is to make him play quarterback. 

 

 

[Lfod]

I still stay neutral on Tyrod. He can scramble for 10 yards. He can also dance around until getting sacked for 10 yards. He can make some throws and he can miss some throws. He can be exciting and boring. 

 

I give him credit, he is a class act and is a tough player. I see you guys debating and I think both sides of the Tyrod division make great points. That's why I don't take sides by find myself on both sides of the divide at times.

 

He took a pay cut and was benched mid season. He also was the QB when the Bills made the Playoffs. That is why I stay neutral on him. People trash him to hard sometimes. People defend him to much at times. I'm critical but keep respect.

 

All that being said the offense looked very bad this year in my opinion and all my praise goes to defense. I don't care what direction the team takes next year. Build around Tyrod or bring in some one else. Just make the offense better and less boring.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Lfod

[Maine-iac]

Just now, twoandfourteen said:

 

Defenses have realized that the best way to beat Tyrod Taylor is to make him play quarterback. 

 

 

So for 2 full years the offense scores between 23 and 25 ppg and then magically they "make Taylor play QB" this year and we are scoring 18.9 ppg? 

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

So for 2 full years the offense scores between 23 and 25 ppg and then magically they "make Taylor play QB" this year and we are scoring 18.9 ppg? 

Those numbers are indicative of the impact of coaching and philosophy, not QB play.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Can you please demonstrate the run/pass ratio of the rest of the league with a lead?

The numbers are almost useless without context.

 

Meaning no offense (see what I did there? heh), in my day I've put work into putting together some data I found to be interesting, and more work into sharing it.

It's then really lukewarm when someone responds "can you please do some more work blah blah blah you didn't do this blah blah"

 

It's true it would be interesting to know what the r/p ratio of other teams may be when they have a lead - but you know, we're all just chickens here.

Everyone can pluck out the data that interests them, or even just point out what might be missing, without telling another chicken to scratch up the stuff they want.

 

[BringBackOrton]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Meaning no offense (see what I did there? heh), in my day I've put work into putting together some data I found to be interesting, and more work into sharing it.

It's then really lukewarm when someone responds "can you please do some more work blah blah blah you didn't do this blah blah"

 

It's true it would be interesting to know what the r/p ratio of other teams may be when they have a lead - but you know, we're all just chickens here.

Everyone can pluck out the data that interests them, or even just point out what might be missing, without telling another chicken to scratch up the stuff they want.

 

It begs the question why you find it interesting if you have no context in which to base it off of. 

 

Example, we pass 20% of the time when we have a lead.  The league average is 18% (let's say).  Is that stat truly interesting? What if league average is 20%?  What's interesting about it?  What about 23%?  

 

See, I just demonstrated 3 different ways that stat can be interpreted. One of them is basically useless to make any point (unless that point is that the Bills were average).  Just knowing the statistical average has very little worth when using it to make any point. 

 

And if you're going to use the "data you found to be interesting and sharing," you open yourself open to critiques on if you're using that data in a valid way that supports your point.  Transplant isn't.  And this isn't his first rodeo.  

 

TL;DR Don't use worthless stats to further a strange crusade if you don't want your worthless stats to be called worthless.

Edited January 3, 2018 by jmc12290

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

It begs the question why you find it interesting if you have no context in which to base it off of. 

 

Example, we pass 20% of the time when we have a lead.  The league average is 18% (let's say).  Is that stat truly interesting? What if league average is 20%?  What's interesting about it?  What about 23%?  

 

See, I just demonstrated 3 different ways that stat can be interpreted. One of them is basically useless to make any point (unless that point is that the Bills were average).  Just knowing the statistical average has very little worth when using it to make any point. 

 

And if you're going to use the "data you found to be interesting and sharing," you open yourself open to critiques on if you're using that data in a valid way that supports your point.  Transplant isn't.  And this isn't his first rodeo.  

 

TL;DR Don't use worthless stats to further a strange crusade if you don't want your worthless stats to be called worthless.

 

It's one thing to believe someone's stats are worthless and make an argument to that effect, bolstered by your own data.

 

It's another to order someone else to go get data for you.  Get your own data if you want it, or argue from data you have.

The above post (if it contained real data) would be interesting in that it would contradict the common perception here that once we have a lead, McD and Dennison turtle up and go ultra-conservative.  You can't see that, no talkin' to ya. 

Might not be any talkin' to ya anyhow, you seem much more interested in orders and lectures vs putting the same effort into football discussion

Edited January 4, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Lazily?

 

You posted about how little we pass with a lead with zero context with the rest of the league. That number is useles without that context.

 

Interesting the way you don't even address the 3rd down thing. You're just always searching for something to pick apart when it's anything pro-Tyrod.

 

% of QB passes when leading... just some examples:

 

Tyrod- 26%

Wilson- 25%

Rivers- 30.6%

Cousins- 32.4%

Smith- 38.2%

Jimmy G- 44.4%

Brady- 48.2%

Wentz- 52.5%

Goff- 61.8%

 

And if you wanted the percentages in terms of a two score lead, they would be as follows:

 

Tyrod- 8.6%

Wilson- 4%

Rivers- 9.4%

Cousins- 6.5%

Smith- 13.9%

Jimmy G- 10.1%%

Brady- 12.6%

Wentz- 9.1%

Goff- 13.8%

 

 

Edited January 4, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[BringBackOrton]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's one thing to believe someone's stats are worthless and make an argument to that effect, bolstered by your own data.

 

It's another to order someone else to go get data for you.  Get your own data if you want it, or argue from data you have.

The above post (if it contained real data) would be interesting in that it would contradict the common perception here that once we have a lead, McD and Dennison turtle up and go ultra-conservative.  You can't see that, no talkin' to ya. 

Might not be any talkin' to ya anyhow, you seem much more interested in orders and lectures vs putting the same effort into football discussion

You missed the point.  He doesn't need to get the data for me.  He needs to get it for him.

 

"Tyrod Taylor has a 50% TD pass rate when the moon is in the 7th house in October and it's 61 degrees in Buffalo.  That's why he's valuable!"

 

"That stat doesn't prove anything on its own."

 

Sounds like a football discussion to me. However, your response was, 

 

"Why are you ordering somebody to get data for you?"

 

Rather than engaging in the actual valid criticism of his football argument.

Edited January 4, 2018 by jmc12290

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Now tell us about how poorly they did in the Red Zone.   (where they don't need a deep threat) 

 

2016 7th, 2017 21st in the league scoring TD's.   

 

You have a bad habit of highlighting the good and overlooking the bad transplant.  

 

And you have a bad habit of doing the opposite.

 

Yes Taylor regressed a bit in the red zone, where he was fantastic in 2016, that was why I didn't include it in the OP, which was all about his 2 most valuable assets in 2017, not his 2 biggest detriments.

 

You get that, right?  

 

But since you brought it up, I don't know total drives per team to the red zone, but if Charles Clay could catch and hold onto the damn ball (and/or Riveron weren't being paid under the table by the Pats) the Bills would have 2 more red zone TDs and one less interception an the team would jump up a handful of spots from 21st considering the difference between 21 and 10 is 52.27% to 57.69%.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

21 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

PS: Taylor passed for 2,799 and 14 TD's. Those are numbers we can improve upon with a rookie or FA QB.

[Bills757]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And you have a bad habit of doing the opposite.

 

Yes Taylor regressed a bit in the red zone, where he was fantastic in 2016, that was why I didn't include it in the OP, which was all about his 2 most valuable assets in 2017, not his 2 biggest detriments.

 

You get that, right?  

 

But since you brought it up, I don't know total drives per team to the red zone, but if Charles Clay could catch and hold onto the damn ball (and/or Riveron weren't being paid under the table by the Pats) the Bills would have 2 more red zone TDs and one less interception an the team would jump up a handful of spots from 21st considering the difference between 21 and 10 is 52.27% to 57.69%.

You realize using logic and stats won't fly with some people, right? 

1 minute ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

PS: Taylor passed for 2,799 and 14 TD's. Those are numbers we can improve upon with a rookie or FA QB.

A rookie like Peterman maybe?  Oh wait......

[twoandfourteen]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

So for 2 full years the offense scores between 23 and 25 ppg and then magically they "make Taylor play QB" this year and we are scoring 18.9 ppg? 

 

I can see that accepting the fact that Tyrod Taylor is not very good at playing QB is difficult for you. So, why don't we defer to an expert? 

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2017/11/cameron_jordan_on_strategy_against_qb_tyrod_taylor_we_made_him_a_quarterback.html

 

 

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

PS: Taylor passed for 2,799 and 14 TD's. Those are numbers we can improve upon with a rookie or FA QB.

 

I mean, in his one full season as the starter, even JP Losman was putting up Tyrod's numbers this year. 

 

JP had 3051 yards passing and 19 TDs. 

 

He had 14 INTs, too. 

 

Not saying JP is better than Tyrod. Just pointing out the level of production we are working with here with Taylor, for some perspective. 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

The average QB did not.  He regressed! 

 

Not on 3rd downs  

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, KW95 said:

Marrone is watching the Jets and Saints game for the blueprint.  Bills are up crap creek if they don't have plan B.

 

Do you mean the "make him a QB" blueprint?

 

 I don't understand how people still say this 44 games into Taylor's career as a Bill... and what... 29 games since we heard that from the Ravens and everyone thought... "welp!!! Now Taylor's not going to be able to play QB because every team will do THAT!!!"

 

Except they haven't. Why is that?

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you mean the "make him a QB" blueprint?

 

 I don't understand how people still say this 44 games into Taylor's career as a Bill... and what... 29 games since we heard that from the Ravens and everyone thought... "welp!!! Now Taylor's not going to be able to play QB because every team will do THAT!!!"

 

Except they haven't. Why is that?

Tyrod Taylor has gotten worse every year that he's played.  I think they have.

 

Also, it wasn't just the Ravens who said that.

In fact, let's go down the list.

 

In 2017:

 

Lowest TD% of his career.  Lowest YPA of his career.  Lowest AYPA, Y/C, Y/G, passer rating, QBR.  Most sacks, sack yards, highest sack percentage.  Lowest, NY/A, ANY/A.  Lowest rushing total, lowest YPC, lowest rushing yards per game, lowest rushing TD total.

 

So what were you saying about defenses not having the blueprint again?

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid.

The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt.

 

What you say here sounds like a coaching thing.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in.  The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it.

Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints?

 

We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league.

 

I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB.  If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more.  It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense.

 

We were 6th in the league in rushing largely because of Taylor... you realize that, right?

 

Take his rushing yards out alone and we drop to 25th.

14 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose.  Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot.  Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves.  If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense.  This is my last post here with this.  Taylor is conservative.  Dennison and McDermott are conservative.  The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to.  The next scenario is drafting a QB.  Can't argue with that.  If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed.

 

Oh man... best post I've read so far this week!