Happy Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid. The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt. We scored 2....just 2 offensive TD's in the 2nd half in our last 6 games. This doesn't say anything good about Dennison. By not adapting to the opposing defense adjustments, Dennison is either lazy, arrogant, or not the most knowledgeable OC out there. I'll go with the last choice. A lot of posters make the offensive futility a Tyrod problem; he's part of the problem, but Dennison is certainly no solution.
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: This is why our 2nd half offense was so putrid. The opposing defense makes changes, we can't adapt. We scored 2....just 2 offensive TD's in the 2nd half in our last 6 games. Yet only lost 2 of those games. Both to the Pats. We scored a ton of points in the second half of the Chargers game. Having nothing to do with QB's do you see what I'm getting at? We have the lead and they run and we haven't been running particualarly well. Even less so when they predict we will be running. Then we end up in 3rd and 12 and people complain about a check down. New QB or Taylor back it makes little difference if we are winning games I think you will see the same type of thing next year. If the defense is even better and the running game hits it's stride again then hopefully we are winning more games and we run it out in the second half better.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said: You don’t buy “McDermotts super duper Extra conservative master gameplan” was the reason for not scoring points when up one score ? ? I need to research this again. I am pretty sure McDermott addressed the lack of late gamer TD's. Therefore in my eyes he sees it as an issue to be fixed. Now we get into the logistics. Is it coaching or turtling by the QB.
The Frankish Reich Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: The other was obviously protecting the football. But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills. If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be. With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh? Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game. Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead. In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game), just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead. This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @ ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor. in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs. Only one was successful. But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular. Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ). 42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks. That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter. Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions. When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time. So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs. And then there are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage. On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs. So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs. PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too). PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC. Good post. I don't understand why every analytical post is always met with negativity. If you don't have something to contribute (supporting, perhaps refuting) the analysis, just don't feel the need to respond .... 1 1
JerseyBills Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: The other was obviously protecting the football. But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills. If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be. With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh? Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game. Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead. In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game), just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead. This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @ ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor. in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs. Only one was successful. But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular. Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ). 42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks. That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter. Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions. When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time. So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs. And then there are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage. On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs. So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs. PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too). PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC. Good point. I posted this in a Taylor thread , it really hit me in week 17 , watching the 3 other WC potential games , how much he extends drives. It's absolutely a major positive and he's been fantastic at it in the last 3 games, 4th in the league. I hope we don't let him go. Groom a rookie, but Taylor can and will cause a defense fits, can't wait to see how he responds Sun, the game comes down to him making plays imo
BillsFan130 Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said: you can make an argument that Hauschka is one of the biggest reasons why we made the playoffs. Ya He really is. If they didn’t have him, I don’t think they would have beat Atlanta and Denver
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: Yet only lost 2 of those games. Both to the Pats. We scored a ton of points in the second half of the Chargers game. Having nothing to do with QB's do you see what I'm getting at? We have the lead and they run and we haven't been running particualarly well. Even less so when they predict we will be running. Then we end up in 3rd and 12 and people complain about a check down. New QB or Taylor back it makes little difference if we are winning games I think you will see the same type of thing next year. If the defense is even better and the running game hits it's stride again then hopefully we are winning more games and we run it out in the second half better. I think it has everything to do with the QB. This is why it's the most coveted position in all of sports. If McDermott didn't see a problem with the offense, Taylor wouldn't have been benched. 15 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: I need to research this again. I am pretty sure McDermott addressed the lack of late gamer TD's. Therefore in my eyes he sees it as an issue to be fixed. Now we get into the logistics. Is it coaching or turtling by the QB. McDermott specifically said scoring is a problem. 1
twoandfourteen Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. I don't really have any issue with anything in your post. Nicely done. I'd only add that "Based on his limitations as a passer, he's barely in the top 30". Your post is an excellent case to be made for Taylor being the one of the best backup QBs in the league. His value to a team with an elite starter, like Green Bay for example, would be the ability to steady the ship and keep things going until the starter was ready to come back. Taylor won't kill you with stupid turnovers and he will do just enough to put some points on the board to escape with 3 or 4 wins when needed. Again -- thanks for the good, informative post. 1
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said: This doesn't say anything good about Dennison. By not adapting to the opposing defense adjustments, Dennison is either lazy, arrogant, or not the most knowledgeable OC out there. I'll go with the last choice. A lot of posters make the offensive futility a Tyrod problem; he's part of the problem, but Dennison is certainly no solution. I don't think Dennison is anything to write home about but I also feel, IMO, he's limited with his playbook because of the QB. 2
Happy Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I don't think Dennison is anything to write home about but I also feel, IMO, he's limited with his playbook because of the QB. With the type of offense he wants to run, I completely agree. Tyrod and Dennison are not exactly a match made in heaven.
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I think it has everything to do with the QB. This is why it's the most coveted position in all of sports. If McDermott didn't see a problem with the offense, Taylor wouldn't have been benched. McDermott specifically said scoring is a problem. Yet the game we are losing, they bring Taylor back in and score 17 points in the second half. When we are predictably running and only throwing on third and long to a this group of pass catchers it's too easy to stop. If the game is close they play it conservative. It isn't going to matter who the QB is. If we had a better QB we might hit on a few more 3rd and longs. If we had a better 0C we might be better at running the ball. If we had better WR's that wouldn't hurt either. There's a number of different ways to improve upon the situation. Either way there's no doubt in my mind if we are in close games or winning and Dennison is still the 0C we will see a lot of this.
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said: With the type of offense he wants to run, I completely agree. Tyrod and Dennison are not exactly a match made in heaven. Agreed. They are not a good match. 1 minute ago, Maine-iac said: Yet the game we are losing, they bring Taylor back in and score 17 points in the second half. When we are predictably running and only throwing on third and long to a this group of pass catchers it's too easy to stop. If the game is close they play it conservative. It isn't going to matter who the QB is. If we had a better QB we might hit on a few more 3rd and longs. If we had a better 0C we might be better at running the ball. If we had better WR's that wouldn't hurt either. There's a number of different ways to improve upon the situation. Either way there's no doubt in my mind if we are in close games or winning and Dennison is still the 0C we will see a lot of this. We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in. The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it. Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints? We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league. I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB. If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more. It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense.
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Agreed. They are not a good match. We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in. The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it. Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints? We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league. I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB. If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more. It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense. My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose. Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot. Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves. If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense. This is my last post here with this. Taylor is conservative. Dennison and McDermott are conservative. The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to. The next scenario is drafting a QB. Can't argue with that. If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed. 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: We were down by 5 scores by the time Taylor came in. The entire 2nd half was garbage time and I don't take anything from it. Should we have made a big deal when Peterman came in the 2nd half and lead us to our only TD against the Saints? We were 6th in the league in rushing and Shady was 4th in the league. I think we play conservative on offense because we have a limited QB. If we had a QB we could trust, we would throw a lot more. It's obvious McDermott was unhappy with the passing production of the offense. This is where people get discombobulated. The Taylorites want to use the argument in favor of their guy but not the other. It's the EJ discussion all over again. They will latch onto a single game and use it as their basis of fact. Yet when we try to present that information to them, it rubs them wrong way and "tempers flare". We all have seen or discussed Taylor's games over the past 3 seasons. He is exactly who he was in his scouting report. Nate sucked against the Chargers, EJ sucked against the Jags in London, but they somehow forget the multiple sub 50 QB ratings from TT. Edited January 3, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan 1
twoandfourteen Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Maine-iac said: I know it will seems as though I'm out and out disagreeing with you and I'm not. I will however ask that you look at Buffalo's stats, then go to recieving and look down that list. You have Charles Clay and then you have what? Essentially nobody. Not taking away from Thompson. I've been impressed with him. I am by no means saying Taylor can not be improved upon but from a "helping your QB" standpoint the Bill's did Taylor no favors. To their credit Mathews and KB got injured but essentially I'm saying I look at that list of receivers and say what did they expect? Kirk Cousins put up 4000 yards with: Jamison Crowder Terelle Pryor (for 9 games) Vernon Davis Josh Doctson Ryan Grant (who I honestly thought was the RB from Green Bay, but then realized that this is a different Ryan Grant) CJ Beathard (204.3 yds/gm) & Jimmy Garappolo (260.0 yds/gm) put up better passing numbers with: Marquise Goodwin Louis Murphy George Kittle Pierre Garcon (for 8 games) Trent Taylor Aldrick Robinson Washed up, old Eli Manning went for 231.2 yds/gm throwing to: Sterling Shepard Evan Engram Roger Lewis Tavarres King Odell Beckham (for 4 games) Now, spare us all the microscopic breakdown of Louis Murphy vs Deonte Thompson. I don't really care. The point is that there are plenty of teams working with less-than-ideal WR/TE groups and they are able to somehow manage a functional and barely competent passing game. I don't think anyone wants or expects the "greatest show on turf" from Tyrod Taylor. But it's not too much to ask to hit a receiver in stride or maybe at least present the threat of a passing attack. He's started 43 games and 23 of them are under 200 yards passing. Edited January 3, 2018 by twoandfourteen
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose. Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot. Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves. If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense. This is my last post here with this. Taylor is conservative. Dennison and McDermott are conservative. The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to. The next scenario is drafting a QB. Can't argue with that. If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed. Most if not all coaches want to play conservative on offense with a lead, YET every single one of them will use a prevent Defense!! TT takes the conservative offense and doubles the "safeness" of it. His over conservatism causes more trouble than it does good. The Jags (Marrones) coaching philosophy is in line with McDermotts. Runt he ball, don't turn the ball over on offense and make create turnovers on Defense. Why are people giving Marrone more credit than McDermott? Because the Jags SOS is 1/4 less difficult than the Bills?
transplantbillsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Author Posted January 3, 2018 7 hours ago, xRUSHx said: Haha, doesnt that average D score more then Tyrod most of the time. Funny our NT had to come over and help on offense to get that TD. I wonder if he can play QB as well, more then likely would get more passing yards and less 3 and outs...lol Ummm... nope, it doesn't.
Royale with Cheese Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: My point was that when we are not in a close game they open up the offense more, albeit against a defense that is playing not to lose. Now if you are going to use that logic then when we play conservative in the second half and the other team is running it down our throats or Fales is throwing for 300 yards on us it's hard to argue that we should be scoring a lot. Then you mention we are 6th in the league in rushing and Shady 4th both numbers which have nothing to do with scoring or specifically second halves. If you take Taylor's rushing stats away we certainly aren't 6th in the league and outside of McCoy's second half TD against the Colts Shady isn't scoring and is in no way carrying the offense. This is my last post here with this. Taylor is conservative. Dennison and McDermott are conservative. The best case scenario for the three is a healthy KB and WR's that Taylor trusts throwing the ball to. The next scenario is drafting a QB. Can't argue with that. If you think McDermott and Dennison playing a rookie QB is going to get you 400 points you may end up disappointed. To the first bolded point, we scored 28 TD's all year. That's on the offense. It's not hard to argue. We lead the league in 3 and outs. If we didn't punt so much, we would have scored points. We were 31st in passing and 6th in rushing....it's easy to see where the problem is. How in the world does rushing and Shady have nothing to do with scoring? I don't agree at all that's the best case. I don't think it has anything to do with trust with Taylor throwing to WR, he just doesn't see them. Dennison said in camp Taylor needs to throw the ball on time. Anthony Lynn said the same thing. Multiple teams said they want to keep Taylor in the pocket to make him play QB because they know he is not good throwing from within the pocket. 3 different offensive coordinators have worked with Taylor and we never finished above 28th in passing. Taylor is the problem moving the ball in the air.
Mango Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 This is not drilled down enough to really tell a story. What is our 3rd down conversation rate at 3rd and 5 or 6+, on clear passing downs? Just my guess, but TT is not effective at converting 3rd and mid or longer comparatively to the rest of the league. The same as he isn't good with playing from behind. He does not excel in clear passing situations.
Maine-iac Posted January 3, 2018 Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: Most if not all coaches want to play conservative on offense with a lead, YET every single one of them will use a prevent Defense!! TT takes the conservative offense and doubles the "safeness" of it. His over conservatism causes more trouble than it does good. The Jags (Marrones) coaching philosophy is in line with McDermotts. Runt he ball, don't turn the ball over on offense and make create turnovers on Defense. Why are people giving Marrone more credit than McDermott? Because the Jags SOS is 1/4 less difficult than the Bills? Yes, yes, and yes. Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts. This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense. Taylor is too conservative. I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that. Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good. His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's. I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee. Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes. All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it. 3 minutes ago, Mango said: This is not drilled down enough to really tell a story. What is our 3rd down conversation rate at 3rd and 5 or 6+, on clear passing downs? Just my guess, but TT is not effective at converting 3rd and mid or longer comparatively to the rest of the league. The same as he isn't good with playing from behind. He does not excel in clear passing situations. Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that. It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done. I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there. 8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: To the first bolded point, we scored 28 TD's all year. That's on the offense. It's not hard to argue. We lead the league in 3 and outs. If we didn't punt so much, we would have scored points. We were 31st in passing and 6th in rushing....it's easy to see where the problem is. How in the world does rushing and Shady have nothing to do with scoring? I don't agree at all that's the best case. I don't think it has anything to do with trust with Taylor throwing to WR, he just doesn't see them. Dennison said in camp Taylor needs to throw the ball on time. Anthony Lynn said the same thing. Multiple teams said they want to keep Taylor in the pocket to make him play QB because they know he is not good throwing from within the pocket. 3 different offensive coordinators have worked with Taylor and we never finished above 28th in passing. Taylor is the problem moving the ball in the air. You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things. I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on.
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