Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Dear Lord, Shady!

 

You ask what target is moving and follow it up immediately by acknowledging that you moved your target.

The only thing moving is your silliness. 

 

I gave him a better number then you complained about it for not being factual !!! 

 

You enjoy your day. 

 

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Here you go: 

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2007-2017 -- here

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2015-2017 (TT's three seasons) - here

 

Total games with less than 180 passing yards from 2015-2017 - here

 

 

Odd I see W’s next to some of those names.   

 

2 and 14 ain’t afraid to go where transplant won’t go 

 

[ddaryl]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The vast majority of NFL QBs I guarantee you could find games with passer rating is in the 30s.

 

 I won't waste my time looking; you're just going to move your target again.

 

They do? 

 

Proof?

 

One thing that's sure working against you is that, ya know, we're 9-7 and in the playoffs this year and the guy you're condemning is 23-20 in the NFL over the last 3 years as a starter.  I would list all those QBs with that "razzle dazzle" that we so desperately needed and that apparently correlates with wins who actually have worst records then Taylor over the last three years, but then some dummy would accuse me of saying Taylor's better than those guys.  

 

1st I don't hate on TT he's the best QB we've had in awhile, but I feel the same about TT now as I did about Flutie then... just not dominant enough to be a long term answer. neither are/were HOF QB's. 

 

Now I'm not going to move my answer...again.. I have no idea what that even means....    I just do not have much faith in QB's like TT and Flutie in the big scheme of things and never will.. Sorry.. and there is no supporting evidence out there saying differently. Anomalies yes.. but the best of the best have always had dominant passers

 

If TT comes back for a season or 2 more OK, but IMO it better not come at the expense of not trying our hardest to find a better one. I want a full on press looking for the 220yds average yards passing per game type... 

 

I'm always going to prefer the pocket passer with accuracy over the shorter scrambling types

 

I feel our odds of winning a SB and multiple SB's rest in the hands of QB's like Elway Marino Kelly Brady, Manning's, Rogers etc.... Not Flutie, or Taylor  types, or QB's that don't consistently throw for 220+ yds per game

If you can throw the ball in this league you're gonna be more successful.. Teams with much more Consistent passing attacks from QBs  have better average records and more playoff appearances

 

This is one seasons of data. This season..Sorted by Average yds per game.

 

Bolded are QB's on teams  that made the playoffs. KC is represented 2x's on this list

 

8 of 12 teams have QB's in the top 20 Average pass yds per game

 

Buffalo, Jacksonville, Carolina , and Tenessee are the 4 that don't.

 

QB's in italics are successful QB's who have had multiple playoffs appearances, but are not in the playoffs this year

 

Now here's your challenge find the year where the majority of QB's in the playoffs where bottom 20 

 

1	Tom Brady	NE	QB	385	581	66.3	36.3	4,577	7.9	286.1	32	8	230	39.6	64T	62	10	35	102.8
2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	22	35	62.9	35.0	284	8.1	284.0	0	1	14	40.0	51	2	1	2	76.4
3	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	360	561	64.2	37.4	4,251	7.6	283.4	28	14	207	36.9	97T	52	14	21	93.4
4	Carson Palmer	ARI	QB	164	267	61.4	38.1	1,978	7.4	282.6	9	7	94	35.2	46	28	2	22	84.4
5	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	360	575	62.6	35.9	4,515	7.9	282.2	28	10	216	37.6	75T	61	12	18	96.0
6	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	371	565	65.7	35.3	4,446	7.9	277.9	29	10	209	37.0	71T	61	16	47	99.3
7	Drew Brees	NO	QB	386	536	72.0	33.5	4,334	8.1	270.9	23	8	201	37.5	54T	72	11	20	103.9
8	Jameis Winston	TB	QB	282	442	63.8	34.0	3,504	7.9	269.5	19	11	180	40.7	70	32	5	33	92.2
9	Alex Smith	KC	QB	341	505	67.5	33.7	4,042	8.0	269.5	26	5	184	36.4	79T	52	13	35	104.7
10	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	QB	120	178	67.4	29.7	1,560	8.8	260.0	7	5	78	43.8	61	20	5	8	96.2
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	342	529	64.7	33.1	4,095	7.7	255.9	20	12	199	37.6	88T	54	8	24	91.4
12	Kirk Cousins	WAS	QB	347	540	64.3	33.8	4,093	7.6	255.8	27	13	191	35.4	74	59	9	41	93.9
13	Jared Goff	LA	QB	296	477	62.1	31.8	3,804	8.0	253.6	28	7	176	36.9	94T	54	12	25	100.5
14	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	265	440	60.2	33.8	3,296	7.5	253.5	33	7	160	36.4	72T	40	9	28	101.9
15	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	339	553	61.3	34.6	3,983	7.2	248.9	34	11	183	33.1	74T	58	12	43	95.4
16	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	126	204	61.8	29.1	1,699	8.3	242.7	19	8	84	41.2	72T	28	4	19	103.0
17	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	154	238	64.7	34.0	1,675	7.0	239.3	16	6	85	35.7	72	21	4	22	97.2
18	Case Keenum	MIN	QB	325	481	67.6	32.1	3,547	7.4	236.5	22	7	179	37.2	65T	45	8	22	98.3
19	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	323	515	62.7	34.3	3,496	6.8	233.1	22	13	165	32.0	87T	43	9	20	86.4

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by ddaryl

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Here you go: 

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2007-2017 -- here

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2015-2017 (TT's three seasons) - here

 

Total games with less than 180 passing yards from 2015-2017 - here

 

I gotta say, I love the links!

 

Are you able to just ask questions to pro football reference and it searches and compiles the data for you? Good stuff!  

 

So, it isn't the "vast majority of QBs," I was wrong there. But it's not all that anomalous. Over 20 starting caliber QBs have had multiple sub 40 Passer Rating games since 2007 and a handful of starting caliber QBs have done the same.

 

I see you included a link to the passing yards too, which wasn't part of that discussion. Why did you choose 180? Plenty of QBs, including a league MVP and a handful of other Franchise QBs have averaged at least 3 sub 180 yard passing games a year over the last 3 years.

 

 

Again, great find!

Edited January 6, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

41 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

1st I don't hate on TT he's the best QB we've had in awhile, but I feel the same about TT now as I did about Flutie then... just not dominant enough to be a long term answer. neither are/were HOF QB's. 

 

Now I'm not going to move my answer...again.. I have no idea what that even means....    I just do not have much faith in QB's like TT and Flutie in the big scheme of things and never will.. Sorry.. and there is no supporting evidence out there saying differently. Anomalies yes.. but the best of the best have always had dominant passers

 

If TT comes back for a season or 2 more OK, but IMO it better not come at the expense of not trying our hardest to find a better one. I want a full on press looking for the 220yds average yards passing per game type... 

 

I'm always going to prefer the pocket passer with accuracy over the shorter scrambling types

 

I feel our odds of winning a SB and multiple SB's rest in the hands of QB's like Elway Marino Kelly Brady, Manning's, Rogers etc.... Not Flutie, or Taylor  types, or QB's that don't consistently throw for 220+ yds per game

If you can throw the ball in this league you're gonna be more successful.. Teams with much more Consistent passing attacks from QBs  have better average records and more playoff appearances

 

This is one seasons of data. This season..Sorted by Average yds per game.

 

Bolded are QB's on teams  that made the playoffs. KC is represented 2x's on this list

 

8 of 12 teams have QB's in the top 20 Average pass yds per game

 

Buffalo, Jacksonville, Carolina , and Tenessee are the 4 that don't.

 

QB's in italics are successful QB's who have had multiple playoffs appearances, but are not in the playoffs this year

 

Now here's your challenge find the year where the majority of QB's in the playoffs where bottom 20 

 

1	Tom Brady	NE	QB	385	581	66.3	36.3	4,577	7.9	286.1	32	8	230	39.6	64T	62	10	35	102.8
2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	22	35	62.9	35.0	284	8.1	284.0	0	1	14	40.0	51	2	1	2	76.4
3	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	360	561	64.2	37.4	4,251	7.6	283.4	28	14	207	36.9	97T	52	14	21	93.4
4	Carson Palmer	ARI	QB	164	267	61.4	38.1	1,978	7.4	282.6	9	7	94	35.2	46	28	2	22	84.4
5	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	360	575	62.6	35.9	4,515	7.9	282.2	28	10	216	37.6	75T	61	12	18	96.0
6	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	371	565	65.7	35.3	4,446	7.9	277.9	29	10	209	37.0	71T	61	16	47	99.3
7	Drew Brees	NO	QB	386	536	72.0	33.5	4,334	8.1	270.9	23	8	201	37.5	54T	72	11	20	103.9
8	Jameis Winston	TB	QB	282	442	63.8	34.0	3,504	7.9	269.5	19	11	180	40.7	70	32	5	33	92.2
9	Alex Smith	KC	QB	341	505	67.5	33.7	4,042	8.0	269.5	26	5	184	36.4	79T	52	13	35	104.7
10	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	QB	120	178	67.4	29.7	1,560	8.8	260.0	7	5	78	43.8	61	20	5	8	96.2
11	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	342	529	64.7	33.1	4,095	7.7	255.9	20	12	199	37.6	88T	54	8	24	91.4
12	Kirk Cousins	WAS	QB	347	540	64.3	33.8	4,093	7.6	255.8	27	13	191	35.4	74	59	9	41	93.9
13	Jared Goff	LA	QB	296	477	62.1	31.8	3,804	8.0	253.6	28	7	176	36.9	94T	54	12	25	100.5
14	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	265	440	60.2	33.8	3,296	7.5	253.5	33	7	160	36.4	72T	40	9	28	101.9
15	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	339	553	61.3	34.6	3,983	7.2	248.9	34	11	183	33.1	74T	58	12	43	95.4
16	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	126	204	61.8	29.1	1,699	8.3	242.7	19	8	84	41.2	72T	28	4	19	103.0
17	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	154	238	64.7	34.0	1,675	7.0	239.3	16	6	85	35.7	72	21	4	22	97.2
18	Case Keenum	MIN	QB	325	481	67.6	32.1	3,547	7.4	236.5	22	7	179	37.2	65T	45	8	22	98.3
19	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	323	515	62.7	34.3	3,496	6.8	233.1	22	13	165	32.0	87T	43	9	20	86.4

 

 

 

 

I really agree with you a lot more than you think I disagree with you. In fact, I almost entirely agree with you.

 

But as for your 220 average passing yard benchmark, Taylor averaged 217 per game in 2015, so it's not like he's incapable of doing that with an outside threat and an OC who calls games that cater to Taylor's strengths.

 

Dennison isn't that guy and he's not going anywhere, so Taylor just isn't the QB this team should bank on for more than next year.

[ddaryl]

16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I really agree with you a lot more than you think I disagree with you. In fact, I almost entirely agree with you.

 

But as for your 220 average passing yard benchmark, Taylor averaged 217 per game in 2015, so it's not like he's incapable of doing that with an outside threat and an OC who calls games that cater to Taylor's strengths.

 

Dennison isn't that guy and he's not going anywhere, so Taylor just isn't the QB this team should bank on for more than next year.

 

The 217 is surprising... However would also point out the likely hood of game tape has his trajectory pointed the other direction. That was his 1st year as a starter. 

 

I would be ok with TT for a year or 2 more as long as the Bills are focusing on making the moves necessary finding the more prototypical franchise qb

Edited January 6, 2018 by ddaryl

[GunnerBill]

While I am not quite convinced that the work Transplant has done on throwing % when up and when behind exonerates Taylor to the extent he has attempted to articulate it is still really solid work.

 

Kudos Transplant. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

While I am not quite convinced that the work Transplant has done on throwing % when up and when behind exonerates Taylor to the extent he has attempted to articulate it is still really solid work.

 

Kudos Transplant. 

I’m still trying to figure out why transplant, a guy  fully aware of the major faults defends him so much?

 

false hope is false hope.  

He wont be a franchise QB in Buffalo.  

 

 

Transplant does well with breaking data down but you have to tell the whole story and not draw pictures of unicorns ? 

Edited January 6, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

While I am not quite convinced that the work Transplant has done on throwing % when up and when behind exonerates Taylor to the extent he has attempted to articulate it is still really solid work.

 

Kudos Transplant. 

 

Muchos gracias!

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Muchos gracias!

 

Think it gives context to something that has been commented on a lot this season in terms of our conservatism when ahead. Nobody can doubt it has worked for us... we are unbeaten when leading by 10 points at any stage but it is useful to see how the approach they have taken compares to the rest of the league. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I’m still trying to figure out why transplant, a guy  fully aware of the major faults defends him so much?

 

false hope is false hope.  

He wont be a franchise QB in Buffalo.  

 

 

Transplant does well with breaking data down but you have to tell the whole story and not draw pictures of unicorns ? 

 

And I'll thank you for the complement, as well.

 

But may I suggest going back and reading the very first 2 full paragraphs of the OP?

 

You're grossly exaggerating what I'm saying about Taylor. Seems to be a common mistake on a sports message board, though, so by no means are you the only guilty party. I know I have been guilty of doing it, myself.

[transplantbillsfan]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think it gives context to something that has been commented on a lot this season in terms of our conservatism when ahead. Nobody can doubt it has worked for us... we are unbeaten when leading by 10 points at any stage but it is useful to see how the approach they have taken compares to the rest of the league. 

 

Yeah it's definitely worked. I just don't love the "get a lead and hold on for dear life!" mentality going into the playoffs.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah it's definitely worked. I just don't love the "get a lead and hold on for dear life!" mentality going into the playoffs.

I haven’t liked that all season! 

 

[Real McClappy]

On 1/3/2018 at 3:12 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Depends what stat you look at for the defense just as much as it does what stat you look at for Taylor though. 

 

The Bills held their opponents to 17 points or fewer TEN times in 2017. That is pretty much the magic number in the NFL and historically you win around 85% of time when you do that (sure if you looked last 20 years only that number would be even higher) You know how many times the Bills won in those 10 games? EIGHT. 

 

Which means we won just once (Tampa) when allowing more than 17 points on defense. Nothing has changed in that regard for me. While everyone talks about the offensive points production in 15 and 16 the Rex team went as its defence went too. 

Spot on Gunner. I posted something very similar in the regards to our average D per some Bills fans. I'm not sure how fans don't remember the whole season constantly holding teams at 17 or below pts in almost all our wins. Our team should have easily been a 10 or 11 win squad this year with average or above QB play.

 

The national media can't even understand this simple concept either. The games we lost, the D in fact, shat the bed. 5 poor performances this year really hurt the D overall numbers "ranking wise".  I'm 100% fine letting up 100 pts in 4-5 games a year as long as the remaining 11-12  games we hold teams below 17pts on D.

 

I love the direction the team is going in. We just need a few more pieces to be real contenders.

 

GO BILLS!

Edited January 7, 2018 by Real McCoy

[twoandfourteen]

7 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Spot on Gunner. I posted something very similar in the regards to our average D per some Bills fans. I'm not sure how fans don't remember the whole season constantly holding teams at 17 or below pts in almost all our wins. Our team should have easily been a 10 or 11 win squad this year with average or above QB play.

 

The national media can't even understand this simple concept either. The games we lost the D in fact, shat the bed. 4 poor performances this year really hurt the D overall numbers "ranking wise". 

 

I love the direction the team is going in. We just need a few more pieces to be real contenders.

 

GO BILLS!

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows more than 20 points? 3-18 Link

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows less than 20 points? 20-2 Link

 

The league average for points against in 2017 was 21.7, in 2016 it was 22.8, and in 2015 it was 22.8.  

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I gotta say, I love the links!

 

Are you able to just ask questions to pro football reference and it searches and compiles the data for you? Good stuff!  

 

So, it isn't the "vast majority of QBs," I was wrong there. But it's not all that anomalous. Over 20 starting caliber QBs have had multiple sub 40 Passer Rating games since 2007 and a handful of starting caliber QBs have done the same.

 

I see you included a link to the passing yards too, which wasn't part of that discussion. Why did you choose 180? Plenty of QBs, including a league MVP and a handful of other Franchise QBs have averaged at least 3 sub 180 yard passing games a year over the last 3 years.

 

 

Again, great find!

 

I can't tell if you're mocking me or not. Good thing it doesn't really matter. 

 

Discovering the PFR index tool the other day has been a real game-changer as far as my daily productivity is concerned. If you really haven't used it, go mess around with it for a few minutes. 

 

I included the 180 out of my own curiosity. The searches take about 30 seconds, so why not share? 

[Real McClappy]

2 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows more than 20 points? 3-18 Link

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows less than 20 points? 20-2 Link

 

The league average for points against in 2017 was 21.7, in 2016 it was 22.8, and in 2015 it was 22.8.  

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this, great stuff twoandfourteen.

 

Based off you stats Tyrod does in fact 100% fit the bill when the D holds teams below 20 as any QB in the league should. 

 

I wonder how that 3-18 record ranks among other top QB's in the league.  I'm pretty sure this record is what has lead most Tyrod supporters away.

[twoandfourteen]

15 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Thanks for this, great stuff twoandfourteen.

 

Based off you stats Tyrod does in fact 100% fit the bill when the D holds teams below 20 as any QB in the league should. 

 

I wonder how that 3-18 record ranks among other top QB's in the league.  I'm pretty sure this record is what has lead most Tyrod supporters away.

 

If you want to adjust the list, click on "show/hide search form" and then just change the team. Then hit "get results". 

 

The only thing is that you don't know for sure who started, so you have to just keep that in mind. For example, here's the Packers record when allowing more than 20. But Rodgers didn't play in a bunch of the 2017 games. 

[transplantbillsfan]

51 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

I can't tell if you're mocking me or not. Good thing it doesn't really matter.

 

Discovering the PFR index tool the other day has been a real game-changer as far as my daily productivity is concerned. If you really haven't used it, go mess around with it for a few minutes. 

 

I included the 180 out of my own curiosity. The searches take about 30 seconds, so why not share? 

 

Seriously?

 

I was being as genuine as possible and even gave you a thanks for a reason.

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows more than 20 points? 3-18 Link

 

Tyrod Taylor's record when the defense allows less than 20 points? 20-2 Link

 

I was legitimately asking how to do this because I'd like to play around with it.

 

Can you do the same query for Andrew Luck?

[twoandfourteen]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Seriously?

 

I was being as genuine as possible and even gave you a thanks for a reason.

 

I was legitimately asking how to do this because I'd like to play around with it.

 

Can you do the same query for Andrew Luck?

 

I apologize, I'm a little on the edge... like I said, sometimes you can't tell! That is with all sincerity, by the way. 

 

But yes, you can pretty much look up any player at any position for pretty much anything. You can even check for splits in specific weather conditions, game times, etc. It's a little ridiculous, now that I think about it. 

 

I just started messing around with this thing a few days ago, so I'm still not totally up to speed with it -- but it's a fascinating tool. A little clunky to use at first, but just play around with it for a little bit and it starts to make sense. 

 

Those stats for Taylor were pretty easy to come up with -- I just searched for games where the Bills had allowed more than 20 points or less than 20 points. I already knew the two games that TT didn't play, so I just didn't count those. 

 

For Luck's most recent seasons, the way I did it would be a little trickier since I have no idea what he's missed in his career. However, you'll still get a general idea of what his record looks like -- it probably just won't be 100% accurate. There's probably a better way to do it, I just haven't figured it out yet. 

 

Here are Luck's "20 points" lists for 2012-2014. I used those years simply because he played in all 16 games in each season, so it was easy to be accurate: 

 

Colts allow more than 20 - link - Luck was 13-14

Colts allow less than 20 - link - Luck was 20-1 

 

Here's the link to the Index home page: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by twoandfourteen