Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[Teddy KGB]

24 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

 

 

Points (and winning) come from teams with balanced offense.

 

Correct.   Ours is ranked 29th, hopefully we can upgrade it with all these picks. 

 

I still don’t understand why you are a yards hater but I guess you have that right ??

Edited January 5, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[BringBackOrton]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I've given you 9 QBs already, but let's get to 1/3rd of the teams in the NFL so I'll throw a few more in:

 

Drew Brees- 45.3% with a lead & 15.5% with a 2 score lead.

 

Blake Bortles- 39% with a lead & 8.4% with a 2 score lead.

 

Cam Newton- 37.8% with a lead & 5.9% with a 2 score lead.

 

 

12 QBs, including Taylor, average % of passes when leading is 40.1%.

 

Taylor, once again, averaged 26%.

 

40.1% is not 2% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

40.1% is not 10% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

40.1% is 14% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

 

Friggin hell dude even Jacoby Brissett, QB of a 4-14 team averaged more passes from ahead than Taylor at 28.9%. 

 

 

My context text was based on watching what other teams do with a lead because I sit in a bar watching every game unfold every week since I can't watch the Bills at home since they're never on TV.

 

So I had context, just from literally watching the games.

 

Now I've provided you with some statistical context that, in fact, supports what I was saying.

 

You're welcome  

 

Weird, I responded to your request to give you some "context," despite the fact that I already had some, but you ignore discussing the weight of that context as it relates to the argument.

 

Why is that? Because perhaps it supports my point, not yours? Hmmmmmm???

Why would you only include 13 QB's instead of 32?

 

See what I'm talking about here?  These QB's could be cherry-picked.  Or they could just not be indicative of the entire league. 

 

You could be right, I'm not even saying you're wrong.  I'm saying the data you are presenting is insufficient to draw a conclusion.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[transplantbillsfan]

42 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Why would you only include 13 QB's instead of 32?

 

See what I'm talking about here?  These QB's could be cherry-picked.  Or they could just not be indicative of the entire league. 

 

You could be right, I'm not even saying you're wrong.  I'm saying the data you are presenting is insufficient to draw a conclusion.

 

The 32 QBs, all of who started most of their games (Hundley instead of Rodgers / Savage instead of Watson / Siemian instead of Osweiler or Lynch) averaged 30.8% of their passing attempts when they were leading.

 

That's all QBs.

 

 

Obviously there are going to be QBs who win a ton and have the lead a whole bunch whose percentages will be higher and you'll have utterly crappy teams like the Browns who almost never have the lead, which is why only 6.1% of Deshone Kizer's passes come when his team was leading.  I'm almost surprised there were any in that case.

 

But there were 17 teams who finished with records between 7-9 & 11-5.  Not so utterly crappy they never have a lead.  Not so dominant they always have it.

 

The QBs for those 17 teams averaged 33.3% of their passing attempts with those teams leading.

 

 

Please, feel free to check those calculations to make sure they're correct.  You'll find them easily in the "situational stats" portion of the stats for each player on NFL.com.

 

 

Conclusion:  On average the Bills threw the ball significantly less than other teams in the NFL with a lead.

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions in a game this year. Two of them went back for TDs. 

 

Have you ever taken a look at the list of guys who have thrown 5 INTs in a game?

 

***Disclaimer: This is in no way, shape, or form meant to imply that I think Peterman is the next Ben Roethlisberger or next great NFL QB. It is simply to point out that it really doesn't provide any relevant insight into what kind of career he will eventually have. The kid very well might be selling real estate in 3 years. It is even dumber to use this single game to try and artificially enhance Tyrod Taylor's value as a starter.***

 

 

Can you give us a list of guys who have thrown five interceptions and a half?  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Can you give us a list of guys who have thrown five interceptions and a half?  

Because he was pulled we’ll never know if he would have broken the 7 int game record. 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

1. Since 2007, there have been 1,188 games where a QB has thrown for 300+ yards. The QB who threw for 300+ has won that game 644 times.  The QB who threw for 300+ has lost that game 544 times.  

 

Why do you think it is that NFL teams have significantly lower winning %s when their QBs are throwing above their average passing yards?

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea, this isn't surprising to those who watch Bills games without a Tyrod bashing agenda or have some football common sense. But there are also those who are either wasted during the game, lack football common sense or are simply just checking the box score.

 

As ive argued before. The Bills get a lead and sit on it with PREDICTABLE and ULTRA CONSERVATIVE play calling which leads to poor offensive production and then fans are calling for Tyrods head when really the coaching staff deserves more of the blame. 

 

Some perspective is always nice. Good post.

 

 

Exactly

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, ddaryl said:

At this point most of us want to see a reliable passing game and some razzle dazzle in the form of a franchise QB with a big arm

 

I care a lot more about winning. Call me crazy.

[twoandfourteen]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Can you give us a list of guys who have thrown five interceptions and a half?  

 

Fortunately for you, I have an important presentation I need to finish this weekend. So, I was looking for a way to procrastinate and this is the perfect thing to do instead. Who doesn't like a little pro football reference wormhole on a Friday night?

 

Join me, as we delve into the fascinating world of the "Fantastic Fives", QBs who have thrown 5 or more INTs in a game (since 1999). 

 

Since 1999, QBs who have thrown 5 INTs in one half:

• Ty Detmer (DET) had 5 in the 2nd half against the Browns in 2001. Threw 7 INTs that day. 
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) had 5 in the 2nd half against the Chiefs in 2016. Had 6 INTs that day. Threw an INT on 5 straight drives, in fact. 
• Nathan Peterman (BUF) had 5 in the 1st half against the Chargers in 2017. 

How about 4 in a half? 

• Peyton Manning (IND) had 4 in the 1st Quarter against the Chargers in 2007. Threw 2 more that day, 1 on the opening drive of the 3rd Q and 1 more in the 4th. Along with Peyton's 6 INTs that day, the Colts also missed 2 FGs and lost the game 23-21. 
• Troy Aikman (DAL) threw 4 in the 1st half against the Giants in 2000. Had 5 INTs that day.
• Matt Barkley (CHI) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Redskins in 2016. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Drew Bledsoe (NE) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Dolphins in 1999. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Daunte Culpepper (MIN) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Bengals in 2005. Just missed the 5 in one half club by 1:06. 5 INTs that day. 
• Brett Favre (GB) threw 4 on 4 straight drives in the 2nd half, also against the Bengals in 2005. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Josh Freeman (TB) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Panthers in 2009. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Dan Marino (MIA) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Cowboys in 1999. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Kyle Orton (CHI) threw 4 in the 1st half against the Bengals in 2005. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Jaguars in 2017. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Tony Romo (DAL) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Bears in 2012. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Tony Romo (DAL) checks in again with 4 in the 1st half against the Bills in 2007. Had 5 INTs that day.

Honorable Mention: 

• Mark Sanchez (NYJ) threw 3 INTs in the 2nd half against the Bills in 2009. He also threw 1 INT in the 1st and 1 INT in OT. Steve Weatherford also threw an INT in OT on a fake punt attempt.
• Chris Chandler (STL) threw 3 INTs in each half against the Panthers in 2004. That lesson in symmetry resulted in 6 INTs on the day. 

The rest of the games can be found here and were mostly 3/2 or 2/3 splits between the two halves. But who cares about those -- It's not like any of them was a rookie throwing 5 INTs in one half in his 1st ever start, am I right? 

 

Actually, now that I think about it, I'm fairly certain that Nathan Peterman is the only guy on this list who was playing in his 1st NFL start. At least, since 1999. 

 

 

 

One more "Fun 5INT Fact" for today:  A QB has thrown 5 INTs in a game 225 times in NFL history. 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Fortunately for you, I have an important presentation I need to finish this weekend. So, I was looking for a way to procrastinate and this is the perfect thing to do instead. Who doesn't like a little pro football reference wormhole on a Friday night?

 

Join me, as we delve into the fascinating world of the "Fantastic Fives", QBs who have thrown 5 or more INTs in a game (since 1999). 

 

Since 1999, QBs who have thrown 5 INTs in one half:

• Ty Detmer (DET) had 5 in the 2nd half against the Browns in 2001. Threw 7 INTs that day. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) had 5 in the 2nd half against the Chiefs in 2016. Had 6 INTs that day. Threw an INT on 5 straight drives, in fact.  Nathan Peterman (BUF) had 5 in the 1st half against the Chargers in 2017.

How about 4 in a half? 

• Peyton Manning (IND) had 4 in the 1st Quarter against the Chargers in 2007. Threw 2 more that day, 1 on the opening drive of the 3rd Q and 1 more in the 4th. Along with Peyton's 6 INTs that day, the Colts also missed 2 FGs and lost the game 23-21. 
• Troy Aikman (DAL) threw 4 in the 1st half against the Giants in 2000. Had 5 INTs that day.
• Matt Barkley (CHI) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Redskins in 2016. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Drew Bledsoe (NE) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Dolphins in 1999. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Daunte Culpepper (MIN) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Bengals in 2005. Just missed the 5 in one half club by 1:06. 5 INTs that day. 
• Brett Favre (GB) threw 4 on 4 straight drives in the 2nd half, also against the Bengals in 2005. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Josh Freeman (TB) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Panthers in 2009. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Dan Marino (MIA) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Cowboys in 1999. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Kyle Orton (CHI) threw 4 in the 1st half against the Bengals in 2005. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) threw 4 in the 2nd half against the Jaguars in 2017. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Tony Romo (DAL) had 4 in the 2nd half against the Bears in 2012. Had 5 INTs that day. 
• Tony Romo (DAL) checks in again with 4 in the 1st half against the Bills in 2007. Had 5 INTs that day.

Honorable Mention: 

• Mark Sanchez (NYJ) threw 3 INTs in the 2nd half against the Bills in 2009. He also threw 1 INT in the 1st and 1 INT in OT. Steve Weatherford also threw an INT in OT on a fake punt attempt.
• Chris Chandler (STL) threw 3 INTs in each half against the Panthers in 2004. That lesson in symmetry resulted in 6 INTs on the day. 

The rest of the games can be found here and were mostly 3/2 or 2/3 splits between the two halves. But who cares about those -- It's not like any of them was a rookie throwing 5 INTs in one half in his 1st ever start, am I right? 

 

Actually, now that I think about it, I'm fairly certain that Nathan Peterman is the only guy on this list who was playing in his 1st NFL start. At least, since 1999. 

 

 

 

One more "Fun 5INT Fact" for today:  A QB has thrown 5 INTs in a game 225 times in NFL history. 

 

 

Good stuff! Thank you!  

 

So the answer is 3: Peterman, Detmer, and Fitzpatrick. Not the hall of halls I expected based on your advertising.

 

Good thing that Chargers DB dropped what would have been a sure pick 6 otherwise Peterman would have been all alone with 6 in a half.

Edited January 6, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[twoandfourteen]

52 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Good stuff! Thank you!  

 

So the answer is 3: Peterman, Detmer, and Fitzpatrick. Not the hall of halls I expected based on your advertising.

 

Good thing that Chargers DB dropped what would have been a sure pick 6 otherwise Peterman would have been all alone with 6 in a half.

 

It's happened 225 times over the years. From hall-of-famers to journeymen to rookies and everything in-between, lots of QBs have thrown down a 5 spot. 

 

But it's only a really bad thing if it happens over the course of two quarters with Tyrod Taylor on the bench. Got it. 

 

If a QB does it over the course of 3 or 4, that's ok though. Tyrod wasn't on the bench, so we can get past those games.  

 

What is it about the 5 in one half for a rookie in his first game that is a much bigger deal than someone like Roethlisberger or Manning throwing 4 in one half? 

 

Shouldn't the rookie be given a little margin for error? To me, it would only make sense that all of those other players should have the necessary experience to avoid 5 INTs in one game. 

 

By the way, Peyton Manning was only a few minutes short of joining your club. He had 4 in the 1st quarter, then the 5th came on the first drive after halftime.

 

 

 

Let's put Peterman and that Chargers game into the proper perspective. That's all I'm saying. 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

It's happened 225 times over the years. From hall-of-famers to journeymen to rookies and everything in-between, lots of QBs have thrown down a 5 spot. 

 

But it's only a really bad thing if it happens over the course of two quarters with Tyrod Taylor on the bench. Got it. 

 

If a QB does it over the course of 3 or 4, that's ok though. Tyrod wasn't on the bench, so we can get past those games.  

 

What is it about the 5 in one half for a rookie in his first game that is a much bigger deal than someone like Roethlisberger or Manning throwing 4 in one half? 

 

Shouldn't the rookie be given a little margin for error? To me, it would only make sense that all of those other players should have the necessary experience to avoid 5 INTs in one game. 

 

Let's put that Peterman and that Chargers game into the proper perspective. That's all I'm saying. 

 

 

No. 5 picks in a half happened 3 times in 25 years, according to you. And Fitz threw all his in the 2nd half. Peterman didn't see the field in the 2nd half.

 

Who knows how many picks he might have thrown, especially considering he was lucky he didn't get another pick 6 and a lost fumble on a snap he wasn't ready for.

 

There's a reason that was labeled as the worst performance by a QB since the AFL/NFL merger.

 

 

Peterman was NOT ready.

 

This insistent defense of Peterman is just strange. He's not as bad as that game...

 

But he's not our Franchise QB... do some of you just love him so much because he's the "other" on a team with Tyrod Taylor under center?

Edited January 6, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[twoandfourteen]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No. 5 picks in a half happened 3 times in 25 years, according to you. And Fitz threw all his in the 2nd half. Peterman didn't see the field in the 2nd half.

 

Who knows how many picks he might have thrown, especially considering he was lucky he didn't get another pick 6 and a lost fumble on a snap he wasn't ready for.

 

There's a reason that was labeled as the worst performance by a QB since the AFL/NFL merger.

 

 

Peterman was NOT ready.

 

This insistent defense of Peterman is just strange. He's not as bad as that game...

 

But he's not our Franchise QB... do some of you just love him so much because he's the "other" on a team with Tyrod Taylor under center?

 

After 3 points, 56 yards passing and an INT from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

After 3 points, 67 yards passing and an INT from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes.

 

After 3 points and 124 yards (74 going into the last min of the 4th Q) passing from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

After watching one of the worst passing offenses in football run for the third straight season by a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

After 3 points, 56 yards passing and an INT from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

After 3 points, 67 yards passing and an INT from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes.

 

After 3 points and 124 yards (74 going into the last min of the 4th Q) passing from a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

After watching one of the worst passing offenses in football run for the third straight season by a 7 year veteran who WAS ready, yes. 

 

Even w/o turnovers there were two games from a guy that was ready had QB ratings of 34 and 35 (rounded to a whole #)

 

Nate wasn’t ready.  We all saw that 

 

the point(s) here is you can’t judge a guy on one bad game.

 

 

 

 

[ddaryl]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I care a lot more about winning. Call me crazy.

The 2 go hand in hand you know... 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Even w/o turnovers there were two games from a guy that was ready had QB ratings of 34 and 35 (rounded to a whole #)

 

Nate wasn’t ready.  We all saw that 

 

the point(s) here is you can’t judge a guy on one bad game.

 

The vast majority of NFL QBs I guarantee you could find games with passer rating is in the 30s.

 

 I won't waste my time looking; you're just going to move your target again.

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

The 2 go hand in hand you know... 

 

They do? 

 

Proof?

 

One thing that's sure working against you is that, ya know, we're 9-7 and in the playoffs this year and the guy you're condemning is 23-20 in the NFL over the last 3 years as a starter.  I would list all those QBs with that "razzle dazzle" that we so desperately needed and that apparently correlates with wins who actually have worst records then Taylor over the last three years, but then some dummy would accuse me of saying Taylor's better than those guys.  

[Teddy KGB]

11 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The vast majority of NFL QBs I guarantee you could find games with passer rating is in the 30s.

 

 I won't waste my time looking; you're just going to move your target again.

 

They do? 

 

Proof?

 

One thing that's sure working against you is that, ya know, we're 9-7 and in the playoffs this year and the guy you're condemning is 23-20 in the NFL over the last 3 years as a starter.  I would list all those QBs with that "razzle dazzle" that we so desperately needed and that apparently correlates with wins who actually have worst records then Taylor over the last three years, but then some dummy would accuse me of saying Taylor's better than those guys.  

 

We know the list of guys he’s better than.    It’s pretty short ??‍♂️

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The vast majority of NFL QBs I guarantee you could find games with passer rating is in the 30s.

 

 I won't waste my time looking; you're just going to move your target again.

What target is moving.    

I initially said sub 50.  Now I am being more accurate.   I gave him a higher rating.  

 

We cant have that again.    Just as no one wants to see a 5 int game from a Bills QB.

 

 As for looking..... Two in a season by a locked in top 10 QB? 

Or once or twice in a career? 

 

Lets move on and hope Tyrod can deliver tomorrow in more than 3rd downs and get TDs in the red zone. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

What target is moving.    

I initially said sub 50.  Now I am being more accurate.   I gave him a higher rating.  

 

We cant have that again.    Just as no one wants to see a 5 int game from a Bills QB.

 

 As for looking..... Two in a season by a locked in top 10 QB? 

Or once or twice in a career?

 

Lets move on and hope Tyrod can deliver tomorrow in more than 3rd downs and get TDs in the red zone. 

 

 

Dear Lord, Shady!

 

You ask what target is moving and follow it up immediately by acknowledging that you moved your target.

 

And then, in the very same post, you move your target yet again. It's unbelievable! At what point were we talking about "locked in the top 10 QBs?"

 

 

Sheesh, I think anytime in the future you ever ask for proof of anything that involves legwork and looking up data, anyone and everyone should disregard because you're just going to constantly change your argument and move your target.

Edited January 6, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[twoandfourteen]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The vast majority of NFL QBs I guarantee you could find games with passer rating is in the 30s.

 

 

Here you go: 

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2007-2017 -- here

 

Total games with a passer rating under 40 from 2015-2017 (TT's three seasons) - here

 

Total games with less than 180 passing yards from 2015-2017 - here