Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/3/2018 at 12:55 PM, jmc12290 said:

It begs the question why you find it interesting if you have no context in which to base it off of. 

 

Example, we pass 20% of the time when we have a lead.  The league average is 18% (let's say).  Is that stat truly interesting? What if league average is 20%?  What's interesting about it?  What about 23%?  

 

See, I just demonstrated 3 different ways that stat can be interpreted. One of them is basically useless to make any point (unless that point is that the Bills were average).  Just knowing the statistical average has very little worth when using it to make any point. 

 

And if you're going to use the "data you found to be interesting and sharing," you open yourself open to critiques on if you're using that data in a valid way that supports your point.  Transplant isn't.  And this isn't his first rodeo.  

 

TL;DR Don't use worthless stats to further a strange crusade if you don't want your worthless stats to be called worthless.

 

I've given you 9 QBs already, but let's get to 1/3rd of the teams in the NFL so I'll throw a few more in:

 

Drew Brees- 45.3% with a lead & 15.5% with a 2 score lead.

 

Blake Bortles- 39% with a lead & 8.4% with a 2 score lead.

 

Cam Newton- 37.8% with a lead & 5.9% with a 2 score lead.

 

 

12 QBs, including Taylor, average % of passes when leading is 40.1%.

 

Taylor, once again, averaged 26%.

 

40.1% is not 2% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

40.1% is not 10% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

40.1% is 14% more than what Taylor averaged.

 

 

Friggin hell dude even Jacoby Brissett, QB of a 4-14 team averaged more passes from ahead than Taylor at 28.9%. 

 

 

My context text was based on watching what other teams do with a lead because I sit in a bar watching every game unfold every week since I can't watch the Bills at home since they're never on TV.

 

So I had context, just from literally watching the games.

 

Now I've provided you with some statistical context that, in fact, supports what I was saying.

 

You're welcome  

On 1/3/2018 at 7:02 PM, jmc12290 said:

Tyrod Taylor has gotten worse every year that he's played.  I think they have.

 

Also, it wasn't just the Ravens who said that.

In fact, let's go down the list.

 

In 2017:

 

Lowest TD% of his career.  Lowest YPA of his career.  Lowest AYPA, Y/C, Y/G, passer rating, QBR.  Most sacks, sack yards, highest sack percentage.  Lowest, NY/A, ANY/A.  Lowest rushing total, lowest YPC, lowest rushing yards per game, lowest rushing TD total.

 

So what were you saying about defenses not having the blueprint again?

 

Weird, I responded to your request to give you some "context," despite the fact that I already had some, but you ignore discussing the weight of that context as it relates to the argument.

 

Why is that? Because perhaps it supports my point, not yours? Hmmmmmm???

[Thurman#1]

On 1/4/2018 at 1:59 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you mean the "make him a QB" blueprint?

 

 I don't understand how people still say this 44 games into Taylor's career as a Bill... and what... 29 games since we heard that from the Ravens and everyone thought... "welp!!! Now Taylor's not going to be able to play QB because every team will do THAT!!!"

 

Except they haven't. Why is that?

 

 

They, um, they have.

 

Our offense is well below average in points and yards. And passing in particular. That's what teams want out of our offense, and what they're getting.

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

I try and try to get you to be honest and step off the "Tylor is great" podium.    Someday you will.   

 

It's not between the 20's that count, but what happens in the RZ.  

 

No, you're just doing your typical you and making a bull crap moving target, like you always do.

 

Remember last year when Taylor was fantastic in the red zone and you still complained constantly about him?

 

If it's what happens in the RZ that counts, then why weren't you a Taylorite (is that really the moronic new name you're using?) last offseason?  

19 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

In one season within 3 games?  

 

Saints 33.6 

Patriots (before he was benched) 35.6 

 

I was actually being kind when I said sub 50.  I should have said sub 36 

 

Hey look! Another moving target!

 

Sorry but I have a life. What time I spend on here I want to spend in focused discussion, not discussion that's CONSTANTLY being shifted because a poster is all friggin over the place.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

transplant knows that it will all be coming to an end soon with TT and isn’t going down without a fight. That has to be the only reason why this thread was made.

 

 

[papazoid]

TT is a Top 20 QB.....we still need better.

 

you could do a lot worse...the next guy might throw 5 interceptions in one game

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

I am, have been, and always will be a supporter of Tyrod Taylor.

 

He most certainly has his weaknesses....they are well documented.....but he also has his strengths and that is why every time we insert another qb (so far) for him they are not cutting the mustard......it is VERY hard to find "that guy"

 

Tyrod if nothing else is very consistant in what he gives you.......better IS needed if we want to take the next step....it is sad that TT has to go or be benched to make that happen because I have enjoyed rooting for him.

 

I still am not convinced that he is gone depending on how the draft and free agency play out......I am still convinced there is a very strong possiblity that the bills do NOT trade the farm to get up the top 3 qbs, still take a qb, and keep Tyrod at his very modest starting salary number for another year. 

.....

If they do that I sincerely hope we put those picks to use on the lines and linebacker.....and a qb to groom

 

It's not a modest contract, not for him anyway.

 

$16 mill in cash (salary and March roster bonus) in 2018, that's 10th.

 

Cap hit? 17th, which is higher than he deserves and certainly higher than a bridge QB should get. And they'd still have to pay him $5 mill in dead cap to cut him after the 2018 season, only about $3 mill less in dead cap than if they cut him now.

 

All for a QB who doesn't fit the one requirement that they stated for their QBs, that he has to play well from the pocket.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

TT is a Top 20 QB.....we still need better.

 

you could do a lot worse...the next guy might throw 5 interceptions in one game

 

I agree, you could do a lot worse.

 

But when "you could do worse" is a major argument, that's not a good sign.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Still assuming this is the reincarnation of the perma-banned Crusher. Same posting style and maybe a little extra bravado now that he's granted some anonymity.

 

Taking jm2009's mantle of "Which banned poster are you"  is never a good look.  

 

7 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

Tyrod if nothing else is very consistant in what he gives you.......better IS needed if we want to take the next step....it is sad that TT has to go or be benched to make that happen because I have enjoyed rooting for him.

This is one reason I refer to him a Typical Taylor.  It is not necessarily meant as an insult.   He is what he is.  

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Agreed.

 

 The little I watched or know of college football, he's actually the guy I want most.

 

Sorry, I read these threads chronologically. I literally just got to this post.

 

I'm pretty sure I responded to this already, at this point.

yes, you did.   

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

No, you're just doing your typical you and making a bull crap moving target, like you always do.

 

Remember last year when Taylor was fantastic in the red zone and you still complained constantly about him?

As you are.  You prop him up and as you just identified the RZ #'s are down. 

 

Going from  the 20 to the 20  is a good thing, but what is better?  Getting a TD when in the RZ.    Does anyone really cheer on a 3 to 5 FG game as the total offense?  Very few people do.  

 

[twoandfourteen]

5 hours ago, papazoid said:

TT is a Top 20 QB.....we still need better.

 

you could do a lot worse...the next guy might throw 5 interceptions in one game

 

What legitimate starting QBs are actually worse? There are maybe 5-6 you wouldn't trade Tyrod straight up for. 

 

He put up 2800 yards passing and 14 TDs. Those are rookie numbers. 

[Royale with Cheese]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Agreed.

 

This is why Taylor his contract is so valuable right now. We can draft a guy in the first round, still keep Taylor and evaluate that new guy, who will (we assume) be an upgrade on Taylor. If worse comes to worse and all hell breaks loose with that kid, we still have a competent starter we could extend or Franchise, if absolutely necessary.

 

Maybe we wouldn't B word at each other so much if the QB position wasn't so weighted.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, papazoid said:

TT is a Top 20 QB.....we still need better.

 

you could do a lot worse...the next guy might throw 5 interceptions in one game

 

This, very simply, is "the world in reality" , and we have some flexibility in making  certainly we don't downgrade and/or we can get some value for Taylor as opposed to just cutting him, which is a possibility but a lot less likely than many here seem to think.

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It's not a modest contract, not for him anyway.

 

$16 mill in cash (salary and March roster bonus) in 2018, that's 10th.

 

Cap hit? 17th, which is higher than he deserves and certainly higher than a bridge QB should get. And they'd still have to pay him $5 mill in dead cap to cut him after the 2018 season, only about $3 mill less in dead cap than if they cut him now.

 

All for a QB who doesn't fit the one requirement that they stated for their QBs, that he has to play well from the pocket.

 

You're being naive if you think $16m isn't a modest contract for a top 20 veteran QB.

 

Do us all a favor if Taylor is the starter here in 2018... it's something that seems nearly impossible for you:

 

admit you were very wrong  

[twoandfourteen]

9 hours ago, papazoid said:

you could do a lot worse...the next guy might throw 5 interceptions in one game

 

Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions in a game this year. Two of them went back for TDs. 

 

Have you ever taken a look at the list of guys who have thrown 5 INTs in a game? 

 

***Disclaimer: This is in no way, shape, or form meant to imply that I think Peterman is the next Ben Roethlisberger or next great NFL QB. It is simply to point out that it really doesn't provide any relevant insight into what kind of career he will eventually have. The kid very well might be selling real estate in 3 years. It is even dumber to use this single game to try and artificially enhance Tyrod Taylor's value as a starter.***

 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

What legitimate starting QBs are actually worse? There are maybe 5-6 you wouldn't trade Tyrod straight up for. 

 

We've played this game before. I think at least a couple of us have given you a number of QBs and given reasoning, you just don't seem to listen. Clearly you don't agree, and that's fine. But that doesn't mean you are right.

 

What a GM would do is not the same as whether the QB is better. Bunching those two questions together, which are two very separate things, is a really stupid and dirty way for you to just try and change the argument.

 

Guess you like making moving targets, too.

 

 

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Maybe we wouldn't B word at each other so much if the QB position wasn't so weighted.  

 

You're probably right

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions in a game this year. Two of them went back for TDs. 

 

Have you ever taken a look at the list of guys who have thrown 5 INTs in a game? 

 

***Disclaimer: This is in no way, shape, or form meant to imply that I think Peterman is the next Ben Roethlisberger or next great NFL QB. It is simply to point out that it really doesn't provide any relevant insight into what kind of career he will eventually have. The kid very well might be selling real estate in 3 years. It is even dumber to use this single game to try and artificially enhance Tyrod Taylor's value as a starter.***

 

I listed a half dozen HOF QB's that threw 4 to 7 INT's in a game.    They don't care or refuse to discuss it.  

 

The NateHaters are being a bit extreme.  26CornerBlitz has an unnatural hate for him.   

 

Back in Preseason I commented I thought Nate looked good and 26CP started referring to me as Mrs Peterman.   

 

I laughed it off, replied calling him CopyPaste.  Sourpuss didn't like it when I called him that.  

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[John from Riverside]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It's not a modest contract, not for him anyway.

 

$16 mill in cash (salary and March roster bonus) in 2018, that's 10th.

 

Cap hit? 17th, which is higher than he deserves and certainly higher than a bridge QB should get. And they'd still have to pay him $5 mill in dead cap to cut him after the 2018 season, only about $3 mill less in dead cap than if they cut him now.

 

All for a QB who doesn't fit the one requirement that they stated for their QBs, that he has to play well from the pocket.

 

 

 

 

I agree, you could do a lot worse.

 

But when "you could do worse" is a major argument, that's not a good sign.

The problem with the way it has been handled is they have not aggressively tried to create competition at the position....

 

C. Jones in the 4th round?   The guy was so raw he had NO chance to compete with TT

 

Peterman?  I actually think he has some talent....but you dont draft a guy in the 5th round with the intention of unseating a incombant starter.

 

If we are gonna do better then TT then they need to bring in TALENT that can compete with him.....I sincerely hope this is the year that they draft a 1st round qb in a qb rich draft.

[Teddy KGB]

9 hours ago, papazoid said:

TT is a Top 20 QB

 

False    

[twoandfourteen]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

We've played this game before. I think at least a couple of us have given you a number of QBs and given reasoning, you just don't seem to listen. Clearly you don't agree, and that's fine. But that doesn't mean you are right.

 

What a GM would do is not the same as whether the QB is better. Bunching those two questions together, which are two very separate things, is a really stupid and dirty way for you to just try and change the argument.

 

Guess you like making moving targets, too.

 

 

 

You're probably right

 

I have, and I always ask that when I see someone say he's a "Top 20 QB" and that "you could do a lot worse". Because I'd like to know how that particular individual got to that conclusion, since I don't agree -- it's called a "discussion". I might learn something new or might look at things a different way. Or, on the other hand, I might present something that other poster hadn't considered yet. No moving targets here. 

 

The "would you trade X for Taylor today?" question is, to me at least, the best way to slot him in the hierarchy of NFL QBs. The only time is seems to bother people is when it uncovers the reality that the "he's better than lots of guys out there" narrative isn't really true. Otherwise, you tend to get really bogged down in the minutia of obscure game splits and stats, and making all sorts of excuses and "if they would only" statements that you don't afford to the players you are comparing him to. 

 

If you're looking to find the overall place of the 60-70 or so guys that are #1 or #2 QBs in the league right now, he's probably right in the middle, 30-35. I just can't see placing a guy who has 2800 yards passing and 14 TDs any higher than that, simply because he doesn't throw any INTs. Taylor's INT stat would be really impressive if it came with another 500-600 yards passing and 6 more TDs. For example, Alex Smith had 5 INTs this year... but also 26 TDs and over 4000 yards to go with them. 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, twoandfourteen said:

 

I have, and I always ask that when I see someone say he's a "Top 20 QB" and that "you could do a lot worse". Because I'd like to know how that particular individual got to that conclusion, since I don't agree -- it's called a "discussion". I might learn something new or might look at things a different way. Or, on the other hand, I might present something that other poster hadn't considered yet. No moving targets here. 

 

The "would you trade X for Taylor today?" question is, to me at least, the best way to slot him in the hierarchy of NFL QBs. The only time is seems to bother people is when it uncovers the reality that the "he's better than lots of guys out there" narrative isn't really true. Otherwise, you tend to get really bogged down in the minutia of obscure game splits and stats, and making all sorts of excuses and "if they would only" statements that you don't afford to the players you are comparing him to. 

 

If you're looking to find the overall place of the 60-70 or so guys that are #1 or #2 QBs in the league right now, he's probably right in the middle, 30-35. I just can't see placing a guy who has 2800 yards passing and 14 TDs any higher than that, simply because he doesn't throw any INTs. Taylor's INT stat would be really impressive if it came with another 500-600 yards passing and 6 more TDs. For example, Alex Smith had 5 INTs this year... but also 26 TDs and over 4000 yards to go with them. 

 

 

[twoandfourteen]

31 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I listed a half dozen HOF QB's that threw 4 to 7 INT's in a game.    They don't care or refuse to discuss it.  

 

The NateHaters are being a bit extreme.  26CornerBlitz has an unnatural hate for him.   

 

Back in Preseason I commented I thought Nate looked good and 26CP started referring to me as Mrs Peterman.   

 

I laughed it off, replied calling him CopyPaste.  Sourpuss didn't like it when I called him that.  

 

 

I just looked it up, that list is kind of crazy. Peyton Manning had 6 INTs against San Diego back in 2007. Russell Wilson had 5 last year. Brees, Warner, Marino, Favre, Stafford, Bledsoe... all on there. Of course, there are also a few of the Harringtons and Feeleys of the world there, too. 

 

It looks like games like that are going to happen occasionally when you try to move the ball like an actual professional football team. 

 

 

 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

I just looked it up, that list is kind of crazy. Peyton Manning had 6 INTs against San Diego back in 2007. Russell Wilson had 5 last year. Brees, Warner, Marino, Favre, Stafford, Bledsoe... all on there. Of course, there are also a few of the Harringtons and Feeleys of the world there, too. 

 

It looks like games like that are going to happen occasionally when you try to move the ball like an actual professional football team. 

 

 

 

Tom Brady had 4 INT's IIRC and I think Jim Kelley did to.  

 

[twoandfourteen]

12 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

 

What are you implying? A problem with my math? 

 

I was actually giving Tyrod a little leeway on the passing yards because of his ability to also produce offense running the ball. So for him, a season of 3400 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 4 INTs should be the standard for him. 

 

I just used Alex Smith to demonstrate that it is possible because they both have the same INT%.