Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[transplantbillsfan]

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

Can you please demonstrate the run/pass ratio of the rest of the league with a lead?

 

The numbers are almost useless without context.

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Can you please demonstrate the run/pass ratio of the rest of the league with a lead?

 

The numbers are almost useless without context.

 

 

Additionally stats like percentage of throws occurring with a 2 score lead? How often were we leading by two scores?

[Dadonkadonk]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Additionally stats like percentage of throws occurring with a 2 score lead? How often were we leading by two scores?

Most of the Miami game, and getting too conservative is what let Miami back in it

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Can you please demonstrate the run/pass ratio of the rest of the league with a lead?

 

The numbers are almost useless without context.

 

Run/pass ratio?

 

Why do I need to look that up?

 

Are you lazily trying to make an argument about something?

[xRUSHx]

 

I really wish the Tyrod threads would stop till the playoffs are over for the Bills because of very strong opinions from both sides on who he is and what should be done with him. Enjoy the ride it has been a long time since we got to see the Bills in the playoffs.

 

Once again the OP and a fluff Tyrod thread, who would have thought. Still trying real hard to sell Tyrod huh Trans. I really like the "more then a passing QB" statement.

 

Stated from OP to keep Tyrod another season.

"2018 almost certainly will be".

 

Stated from OP.

"Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills".

I agree with this OP.

 

 

But then this from the OP .

"He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL"

"Taylor is more than just a passing QB"

 

Then points the finger at others as to why not so good. Are you now saying it is McD that is the problem with the offense not Denn?

 

Trans.

"in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs".

 

"This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme"

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Additionally stats like percentage of throws occurring with a 2 score lead? How often were we leading by two scores?

 

I did this once during the season in terms of literal minutes we were ahead vs minutes we were tied or behind.

 

You likely casually ignored it because it didn't fit your narrative.

 

You don't want those numbers if they aren't conducive to you saying something negative about Taylor.

 

 

The Bills had a lead a relatively large % of the season especially when compared with the 26% of passes Taylor threw when leading.

22 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Most of the Miami game, and getting too conservative is what let Miami back in it

 

It is. And it's not the first time that happened under the uber-conservative McDermott and almost certainly won't be the last.

[xRUSHx]

Like I was saying in my above post of the OP blaming McD for Tyrod not good enough.

 

Trans.

"not the first time that happened under the uber-conservative McDermott and almost certainly won't be the last. "

 

.

Edited January 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[transplantbillsfan]

15 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Like I was saying in my above post of the OP blaming McD for Tyrod not good enough.

 

Trans.

"not the first time that happened under the uber-conservative McDermott and almost certainly won't be the last. "

 

See, it's funny because you're doing this here in 2 separate posts. Child, what you're perceiving as "blaming" would only, in fact, be "blaming" if we lost...

 

 

or if I were one of those naive posters who thought yards were the be all end all of QB stats

 

I don't care about yards. I care about what the QB does to help the team get the W.

 

Taylor's 2017 season was worse statistically in many ways (YAAARDZZZ) than 2016, but he was a better overall QB in 2017 in some important ways than 2016.

 

 

Hey, you're the guy who said there was no way in hell a Tyrod led team would make the playoffs... is the crow delicious?  

 

Hope so! Cause if you're a true Bills fan you're rooting hardcore for him right now  

Edited January 3, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[xRUSHx]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

See, what you're perceiving as "blaming" would only, in fact, be "blaming" if we lost...

 

 

or if I were one of those naive posters who thought yards were the be all end all of QB stats

 

 

 

Hey, you're the guy who said there was no way in hell a Tyrod led team would make the playoffs... is the crow delicious?  

 

Hope so! Cause if you're a true Bills fan you're rooting hardcore for him right now  

Miracles happen, too bad it takes a few decades to happen once. Thank God for the D and Cinci. This miracle happened in spite of Tyrod not because of.

 

I will be enjoying the game in Jacksonville watching it live while gladly drinking beer and eating some crow wishing Tyrod isn't forced to be a QB while our D once again carries us to victory.

 Go Bills

Edited January 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[transplantbillsfan]

5 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Miracles happen, too bad it takes a few decades to happen once. Thank God for the D and Cinci. This miracle happened in spite of Tyrod not because of.

 

Go Bills

 

Oh yes, let's give credit to the average defense but not the average QB.  

[xRUSHx]

15 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh yes, let's give credit to the average defense but not the average QB.  

Haha, doesnt that average D score more then Tyrod most of the time. 

 

Funny our NT had to come over and help on offense to get that TD. I wonder if he can play QB as well, more then likely would get more passing yards and less 3 and outs...lol

Edited January 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh yes, let's give credit to the average defense but not the average QB.  

 

Depends what stat you look at for the defense just as much as it does what stat you look at for Taylor though. 

 

The Bills held their opponents to 17 points or fewer TEN times in 2017. That is pretty much the magic number in the NFL and historically you win around 85% of time when you do that (sure if you looked last 20 years only that number would be even higher) You know how many times the Bills won in those 10 games? EIGHT. 

 

Which means we won just once (Tampa) when allowing more than 17 points on defense. Nothing has changed in that regard for me. While everyone talks about the offensive points production in 15 and 16 the Rex team went as its defence went too. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by GunnerBill

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Run/pass ratio?

 

Why do I need to look that up?

 

Are you lazily trying to make an argument about something?

Lazily?

 

You posted about how little we pass with a lead with zero context with the rest of the league. That number is useles without that context.

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Lazily?

 

You posted about how little we pass with a lead with zero context with the rest of the league. That number is useles without that context.

 

There usually isn’t context with his posts. It’s generally just raw stats over analyzed.

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There usually isn’t context with his posts. It’s generally just raw stats over analyzed.

Hell is transplant making the argument:

 

"Everybody is down on our yardage this year. But look at the numbers. Taylor was putting up 200 yards or so a game, on average. 200 sounds like a lot right? Especially, when Shady was only averaging 80 or so per game on average. Doesn't doubling up one of the best running backs in the game sound like good production? Are you shocked?"

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Oh yes, let's give credit to the average defense but not the average QB.  

 

I don't think an average QB leads the Bills offense to one of the worst TD outputs in the recent memory.

We only scored 28 total TD's on offense.  Our 4-12 team in 2010 scored 30.   

 

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The other was obviously protecting the football.

 

 

But first of all, let's get the little disclaimer out of the way: Taylor is not an elite QB. He's not a top 10 QB. And he won't be the franchise QB for the Buffalo Bills.

 

If we have the ability to clearly upgrade on Taylor, I don't think anyone would see that as a problem. And it seems pretty clear that 0BD will be actively trying to upgrade on him this offseason. If 2017 wasn't Taylor's last year and Buffalo, 2018 almost certainly will be.

 

 

With all of that out-of-the-way, what I think Taylor seriously excelled (and why, combined with protecting the football, Taylor is valuable to a conservative coach like McDermott) at was third down. He was, in fact, one of the better QBs in the NFL as a whole on those Drive-extending plays. Part of that is shown in the fact that Buffalo has the sixth highest conversion percentage on third down in the NFL for 2017.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Yes, we ended up with the worst three and out percentage in the NFL. Yet, we were the sixth best and third down efficiency. Seems strange, huh?

 

Some of that has to do with the three games that we can think of that were absolutely horrid: the Panthers game, the Bengals game, the Saints game.

 

Otherwise, a lot of that has to do with what we do when we have a lead. We don't pass very much and we really barely pass with a 2+ score lead.

 

In all of Taylor's 14 total games (once you factor in essentially the half of the Saints game and the half of the patriots game),  just 26% of Taylor's throes of come when the bills were in the lead. Just 8.6% have come when the bills had a 2+ score lead.

 

This is not a mistake, it's part of McDermotts grand scheme and there are seven games in particular where this plan came into place: NYJ, DEN, @  ATL, OAK, @ KC, MIA x 2. And I think he was even extra conservative and three Road games we played, though maybe not the last one quite as much because of the desperation factor.

 

in those seven games, Dennison (probably at the request of McDermott) called 7 designed QB runs.

 

Only one was successful.

 

But all of this belies what actually happened, overall, on 3rd downs for the year; for the team as a whole but Taylor in particular.

 

Taylor was 12th in the NFL in 2017 and third down conversion percentage on third down passing plays (according to what the NFL teams as third down passing plays. ).

 

42.7% of these plays went for third-down conversions. And yes, that includes sacks.

 

That's up significantly from the 38.5% he converted in his first year as a starter.

 

 Yet, Taylor is more than just a passing QB. In fact, Taylor ran the ball 31 times on third downs in 2017. 18 of those were 1st down conversions.

 

When Taylor ran, he converted 58.1% of the time.

 

So, as a whole on the year, Taylor was actually 74/162, or 45.7% in converting 3rd downs.

 

And then there  are the passing plays that, for whatever reason, the NFL does not count in the net passing yards. These are plays where a QB is pressured, but instead of taking a sack (which would be included in net passing yards he escapes that sack) and gains positive yardage.

 

On these plays, Taylor was 13/19, or 68.4% in converting 1st downs.

 

So on what I think should be referred to as net passing plays, Taylor was converting 46% of his first downs. No, I'm not going to reslot him  because you would have to do that for every single QB and I just don't have the damn time, but I think just about anyone should be happy with a QB who converts first down on 46% of his third downs.

 

 

PS: For those of you wondering, Taylor scrambled 38 times for 294 yards (7.7 yards per scramble... this was about his average the last 2 years, too).

 

PPS: Taylor had 15 kneel downs for -16 yards so on rushes throughout the year, Taylor gained 443 yards on 69 runs. That's 6.4 YPC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's not surprising to me at all because consistency is one of the biggest, if the biggest issues with Taylor.

27 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Hell is transplant making the argument:

 

"Everybody is down on our yardage this year. But look at the numbers. Taylor was putting up 200 yards or so a game, on average. 200 sounds like a lot right? Especially, when Shady was only averaging 80 or so per game on average. Doesn't doubling up one of the best running backs in the game sound like good production? Are you shocked?"

 

 

 

Where did he make this argument?

[teef]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't think an average QB leads the Bills offense to one of the worst TD outputs in the recent memory.

We only scored 28 total TD's on offense.  Our 4-12 team in 2010 scored 30.   

 

this is pretty shocking.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

this is pretty shocking.

 

I'm still pretty shocked we won 4 out of our last 6 because we only scored 7 offensive TD's in that span.

That's just a shade of over 1 TD a game.  

[teef]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm still pretty shocked we won 4 out of our last 6 because we only scored 7 offensive TD's in that span.

That's just a shade of over 1 TD a game.  

i just never realized this.  so...field goals and defensive tds account for the rest of the points?  i know the run game suffered a bit this year, but man.