dave mcbride Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 (edited) The Bills were statistically bad or at best mediocre in virtually every category except one: turnovers. They were 6th in raw rushing yardage, but only because they ran it so much. They were actually just 14th in rushing ypa after finishing first last year. Their pythagorean (statistically expected) record was 6.4-9.6. However, their offense surrendered the 6th fewest turnovers in the league and their defense finished 9th in takeaways. Importantly, Tyrod Taylor had the lowest interception percentage (1.0) of any quarterback in the *entire league*. Obviously, that had a material impact on the team's fortunes; teams so weak in so many major categories shouldn't have winning records. They were seventh in turnover differential, and if you take away the statistical blip that was the first half of the Chargers game, they are in the top two or three. **A tip of the cap to Hauschka too; his excellence was probably good for one additional win above expectations too. Signing him was like the Indians getting Andrew Miller in 2016. Edited January 1, 2018 by dave mcbride 2
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Someone is a unhappy camper lol. Thanks, Marvin, Dalton and Boyd. 1
dave mcbride Posted January 1, 2018 Author Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said: Someone is a unhappy camper lol. Thanks, Marvin, Dalton and Boyd. Not at all. i am as happy as can be. Turnovers are huge, and the Bills prioritized it. It was smart. Targeting safeties who can force turnovers was a great move. Poyer and Hyde were phenomenal in pass defense all season.
Big Turk Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 If you have shortcomings in so many other areas, this can be a huge equalizer, IMHO...you prevent scoring opportunities and prevent the opposition from getting scoring opportunities
klos63 Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Not at all. i am as happy as can be. Turnovers are huge, and the Bills prioritized it. It was smart. Targeting safeties who can force turnovers was a great move. Poyer and Hyde were phenomenal in pass defense all season. the difference those 2 made all season long was stunning. Such a dramatic improvement from last season. 2
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, klos63 said: the difference those 2 made all season long was stunning. Such a dramatic improvement from last season. and it's thanks to McDermott that they're here. Period. The guy gets it. And he's due the full five years, if not more. 1
Teddy KGB Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Clapping it up for Poyer and Hyde. Playmakers
GunnerBill Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Not at all. i am as happy as can be. Turnovers are huge, and the Bills prioritized it. It was smart. Targeting safeties who can force turnovers was a great move. Poyer and Hyde were phenomenal in pass defense all season. They were outstanding signings, both of them. This team has a long way to go still. But I have done culture change as a coach albeit in a different sport and at a much lower level... it is freaking hard and getting over that first major hump often comes "ugly" if that makes sense. The Bills will need to pass better, will need to improve their run defense and their pass rush, need more consistency from the offensive line.... but the first thing they needed to do is win. Winning slowly eradicates the expectation of defeat and makes improving those other crucial things that can make you proper winners easier to accomplish. 1 1
QB Bills Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Can't argue with that. Honestly, this team isn't very good top to bottom. Even compared to some other Bills teams over the last 17 years. But they've been opportunistic and have had some breaks go their way. But after all this time, they're due for some good fortune. Let's hope that carries into this coming Sunday.
Real McClappy Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: They were outstanding signings, both of them. This team has a long way to go still. But I have done culture change as a coach albeit in a different sport and at a much lower level... it is freaking hard and getting over that first major hump often comes "ugly" if that makes sense. The Bills will need to pass better, will need to improve their run defense and their pass rush, need more consistency from the offensive line.... but the first thing they needed to do is win. Winning slowly eradicates the expectation of defeat and makes improving those other crucial things that can make you proper winners easier to accomplish. Great post Gunner. It's a milestone or baby step of what is coming....
Big C Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Our point differential is absolutely ridiculous for a playoff team. Like, historically bad. We eked out tough wins with turnovers and often when the turnovers didn't come we got blown the hell out. We only had one really convincing win all year (Oakland, maybe Jets week one as well) but several convincing losses. Rebounding from that three game skid is something I haven't seen a Bills team do in I don't know how long. They are tough and they believe in themselves. They kept fighting. That is why they are in the playoffs.
Teddy KGB Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ScottLaw said: Dude Tyrod sucks. He does nothing right. I read it here a million times Sony must be true. Correct, look down by Kizer and Simien http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?statisticCategory=PASSING Ravens 9-7 Cowboys 9-7 Chargers 9-7 Seahawks 9-7 Lions 9-7. Lions stink but we are awesome.
Real McClappy Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Give me 3 or 4 turnovers against the JAGS!
Billsfan1972 Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 50 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: The Bills were statistically bad or at best mediocre in virtually every category except one: turnovers. They were 6th in raw rushing yardage, but only because they ran it so much. They were actually just 14th in rushing ypa after finishing first last year. Their pythagorean (statistically expected) record was 6.4-9.6. However, their offense surrendered the 6th fewest turnovers in the league and their defense finished 9th in takeaways. Importantly, Tyrod Taylor had the lowest interception percentage (1.0) of any quarterback in the *entire league*. Obviously, that had a material impact on the team's fortunes; teams so weak in so many major categories shouldn't have winning records. They were seventh in turnover differential, and if you take away the statistical blip that was the first half of the Chargers game, they are in the top two or three. **A tip of the cap to Hauschka too; his excellence was probably good for one additional win above expectations too. Signing him was like the Indians getting Andrew Miller in 2016. How dare you cite stats and #'s. McDermott called all those turnovers and is 100% responsible.
hondo in seattle Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 The stats don't paint a pretty picture. And stats say we'll lose next week. Both the Jags O and D put up good numbers this year. The Bills, on the other hand, ranked in the bottom half of the league in both offense and defense. We're lucky to even be invited to the dance. Then again, here are some other interesting stats. The Bills finished with 9 wins, the Jaguars with 10. In terms of the most important stat of all, there's not much to tell the two teams apart. Furthermore, the only team we lost to over the last 6 weeks was the Pats - the best team in the league. The Jags lost their last two games. The stats say the Jags have the better roster on both sides of the ball. Other data suggests the Bills have the edge in heart and teamwork. This game could be close. (Btw, does anyone know how did the Bills do in Toxic Differential?)
Teddy KGB Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, ScottLaw said: Reread the OP. Thanks. Rather just laugh at your takes. Mcdermott bad. Tyrod = Jesus’s father.
FearLess Price Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Real McCoy said: Give me 3 or 4 turnovers against the JAGS! I think Bortles can make that happen He threw a few vs ten 1
Real McClappy Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, FearLess Price said: I think Bortles can make that happen He threw a few vs ten I really hope so man. I have a feeling Marrone is going to be conservative as hell and just try to pound the rock against our D though. This is great stuff to be chatting about though for the first time in along time.
hondo in seattle Posted January 1, 2018 Posted January 1, 2018 55 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: The Bills were statistically bad or at best mediocre in virtually every category except one: turnovers. They were 6th in raw rushing yardage, but only because they ran it so much. They were actually just 14th in rushing ypa after finishing first last year. Their pythagorean (statistically expected) record was 6.4-9.6. However, their offense surrendered the 6th fewest turnovers in the league and their defense finished 9th in takeaways. Importantly, Tyrod Taylor had the lowest interception percentage (1.0) of any quarterback in the *entire league*. Obviously, that had a material impact on the team's fortunes; teams so weak in so many major categories shouldn't have winning records. They were seventh in turnover differential, and if you take away the statistical blip that was the first half of the Chargers game, they are in the top two or three. **A tip of the cap to Hauschka too; his excellence was probably good for one additional win above expectations too. Signing him was like the Indians getting Andrew Miller in 2016. While I don't like to be Grinch-like and am, in fact, super enthused right now, I feel like I should mention something that concerns me. Someone (PFF?) once did an analysis that determined that turnover differential is a stat that doesn't typically sustain from year to year. Teams that are statistically good (or bad) on offense or defense are likely to be good (or bad) the following year. Turnover differential, on the other hand, seems to go up and down almost randomly from season to season. If we want to continue earning playoff berths, we're going to have to become proficient at something less fickle than turnovers.
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