Friendly reminder: Turnover differential is King

[twoandfourteen]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yesterday's game ABSOLUTELY proved Badol's point.

 

Look at the post I made farther up this page that said "Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Buffalo are the most likely "current playoff teams" to win the Super Bowl based on a shared regular season stat of all Super Bowl winning teams"

 

Going into the game a number of us said "We need 2 turnovers, and we got this game in the bag". Instead, the Jags who are also good at creating turnovers and have a high number this year, took the ball away from us twice. Those 2 flips of possession were the extra chances they needed to score one more time than we did and win the game.

 

The reason the Jags were "barely" able to put up more points is because they had more chances. They got those chances from winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are very important.

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[Teddy KGB]

18 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yesterday's game ABSOLUTELY proved Badol's point.

 

Look at the post I made farther up this page that said "Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Buffalo are the most likely "current playoff teams" to win the Super Bowl based on a shared regular season stat of all Super Bowl winning teams"

 

Going into the game a number of us said "We need 2 turnovers, and we got this game in the bag". Instead, the Jags who are also good at creating turnovers and have a high number this year, took the ball away from us twice. Those 2 flips of possession were the extra chances they needed to score one more time than we did and win the game.

 

The reason the Jags were "barely" able to put up more points is because they had more chances. They got those chances from winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are very important.

 

I don’t agree I’d prefer an NFL qb that could score 11 points in 4 quarters. 

 

The Punt on umpteen straight drives method seems to be a fail. 

 

Garrapolo put up 45 on them last week ? 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[CircleTheWagons99]

Are people still defending TT??? My god man give it a rest, he is not good. 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yesterday's game ABSOLUTELY proved Badol's point.

 

Look at the post I made farther up this page that said "Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Buffalo are the most likely "current playoff teams" to win the Super Bowl based on a shared regular season stat of all Super Bowl winning teams"

 

Going into the game a number of us said "We need 2 turnovers, and we got this game in the bag". Instead, the Jags who are also good at creating turnovers and have a high number this year, took the ball away from us twice. Those 2 flips of possession were the extra chances they needed to score one more time than we did and win the game.

 

The reason the Jags were "barely" able to put up more points is because they had more chances. They got those chances from winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are very important.

 

But I would argue that the turnovers didn't make a difference.  After the INT, the Jags went three and out and punted to us.  We ended up losing about 20 yards of field position with that sequence.

Peterman's INT closed out the game but what were we really doing on offense to capitalize if we did end up with a turnover?  

Even if Tre comes up with that pick....don't you think that would have just been another FG at best?

[Big Gun]

10 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

Are people still defending TT??? My god man give it a rest, he is not good. 

Yes they are.

 

It's sad isn't it.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

But I would argue that the turnovers didn't make a difference.  After the INT, the Jags went three and out and punted to us.  We ended up losing about 20 yards of field position with that sequence.

Peterman's INT closed out the game but what were we really doing on offense to capitalize if we did end up with a turnover?  

Even if Tre comes up with that pick....don't you think that would have just been another FG at best?

 

Dont get me wrong, in NO WAY am I saying turnovers are the be-all end-all. Of course you have to score with the ball. Of course the "ultimate stat" is still the scoreboard. BUt...

 

In a close game that everyone expected to be decided by 1 score, getting a couple turnovers and winning the possession battle is as important as anything.

 

Yes, we definitely need a QB who can move the ball, drive the offense, and put up points. But we (literally you and I, lol) walked into that game saying we need 2 picks to win. Jax got 2 picks, we dropped 2 picks, and the game was decided by 1 score. There are plenty of variables and moving parts, but that possession imbalance played a huge part in the outcome.

2 hours ago, PeterGriffin said:

Yes they are.

 

It's sad isn't it.

 

No. No they arent. If you actually go back and read this barely 2 page thread, there isnt a single post that really defends him.

 

I certainly am not, and I dont see where Badol is either (and I would be the first to point out Badol is wrong about something).

 

Personally, I'm in here discussing one specific point about the game of football in general, the stats behind it, and the strategy that goes along with it. Nothing to do with Tyrod or Peterman (both of which I am adamant the Bills should replace, to the point I may lose my faith in this FO if they dont handle it correctly this offseason, even with the playoff appearance).

 

But no one here is defending Tyrod.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

As Belichick says.........more games are lost than won.

 

Bills lost this game with mistakes that the Jags capitalized on.

 

Chalk another win in the column of the team that won the turnover battle but the Bills made a lot more mistakes than that.

 

I absolutely hate Jauron Ball....people just noticing that the Bills are nauseating to watch are a bit slow on the uptake..........but they had to play this style because they lacked playmakers in the passing game all season.

 

Not the least bit surprised at the offensive results yesterday.   

 

Tyrod deserves a ton of credit for going from a QB of a high scoring offense that lead the league in big plays for two years in a row......to transitioning into a surprisingly solid, if unorthodox Jauron Ball QB.

 

 He never adapted to the timing of this offense but let's face it,  waiting until late October and early November to get the #2 and #1 WR's on the field.....Thompson and Benjamin respectively.....was a challenge.    Benjamin was still confused about where to line-up yesterday.    If anything you want polished WCO receivers for a first time WCO QB.   

 

Huge waste of the capabilities of Tyrod and Shady......who was turned into a plain ol' 4 ypc RB.......but personnel decisions dictated what you saw yesterday(and most of the year).

 

I always take a QB with that first pick.....and if Tyrod is back........so be it.........I think he would at least improve marginally given reps and time with a WR corps..........but if they actually want to score points in bunches again they need to cater the offense to his skills and get a big play WR for that X or Y position.

 

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Dont get me wrong, in NO WAY am I saying turnovers are the be-all end-all. Of course you have to score with the ball. Of course the "ultimate stat" is still the scoreboard. BUt...

 

In a close game that everyone expected to be decided by 1 score, getting a couple turnovers and winning the possession battle is as important as anything.

 

Yes, we definitely need a QB who can move the ball, drive the offense, and put up points. But we (literally you and I, lol) walked into that game saying we need 2 picks to win. Jax got 2 picks, we dropped 2 picks, and the game was decided by 1 score. There are plenty of variables and moving parts, but that possession imbalance played a huge part in the outcome.

 

No. No they arent. If you actually go back and read this barely 2 page thread, there isnt a single post that really defends him.

 

I certainly am not, and I dont see where Badol is either (and I would be the first to point out Badol is wrong about something).

 

Personally, I'm in here discussing one specific point about the game of football in general, the stats behind it, and the strategy that goes along with it. Nothing to do with Tyrod or Peterman (both of which I am adamant the Bills should replace, to the point I may lose my faith in this FO if they dont handle it correctly this offseason, even with the playoff appearance).

 

But no one here is defending Tyrod.

 

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As Belichick says.........more games are lost than won.

 

Bills lost this game with mistakes that the Jags capitalized on.

 

Chalk another win in the column of the team that won the turnover battle but the Bills made a lot more mistakes than that.

 

I absolutely hate Jauron Ball....people just noticing that the Bills are nauseating to watch are a bit slow on the uptake..........but they had to play this style because they lacked playmakers in the passing game all season.

 

Not the least bit surprised at the offensive results yesterday.   

 

Tyrod deserves a ton of credit for going from a QB of a high scoring offense that lead the league in big plays for two years in a row......to transitioning into a surprisingly solid, if unorthodox Jauron Ball QB.

 

 He never adapted to the timing of this offense but let's face it,  waiting until late October and early November to get the #2 and #1 WR's on the field.....Thompson and Benjamin respectively.....was a challenge.    Benjamin was still confused about where to line-up yesterday.    If anything you want polished WCO receivers for a first time WCO QB.   

 

Huge waste of the capabilities of Tyrod and Shady......who was turned into a plain ol' 4 ypc RB.......but personnel decisions dictated what you saw yesterday(and most of the year).

 

I always take a QB with that first pick.....and if Tyrod is back........so be it.........I think he would at least improve marginally given reps and time with a WR corps..........but if they actually want to score points in bunches again they need to cater the offense to his skills and get a big play WR for that X or Y position.

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, now Badol is defending him. And is wrong to do so.

[Royale with Cheese]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Dont get me wrong, in NO WAY am I saying turnovers are the be-all end-all. Of course you have to score with the ball. Of course the "ultimate stat" is still the scoreboard. BUt...

 

In a close game that everyone expected to be decided by 1 score, getting a couple turnovers and winning the possession battle is as important as anything.

 

Yes, we definitely need a QB who can move the ball, drive the offense, and put up points. But we (literally you and I, lol) walked into that game saying we need 2 picks to win. Jax got 2 picks, we dropped 2 picks, and the game was decided by 1 score. There are plenty of variables and moving parts, but that possession imbalance played a huge part in the outcome.

 

 

I'm feeling today like Drew felt on the car ride home.

The experience this weekend got me through the drive home yesterday....great time.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Ok, now Badol is defending him. And is wrong to do so.

 

 

There is nothing to defend..........he played like Tyrod has played in this offense ALL SEASON LONG yesterday.

 

Perhaps the biggest upside from a board viewing perspective is that the "CHURCH OF DRAFT A QB FIRST"..........of which I am the leader........ *may* actually exceed 2% of enrolled posters for the first time ever on draft day.    I love 3D White.......as I've said many times I had him ranked #1 CB in the draft over the hamstrung Lattimore.........but I am still in disbelief that they passed on a QB last draft.

 

 

 

 

    

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There is nothing to defend..........he played like Tyrod has played in this offense ALL SEASON LONG yesterday.

 

Perhaps the biggest upside from a board viewing perspective is that the "CHURCH OF DRAFT A QB FIRST"..........of which I am the leader........ *may* actually exceed 2% of enrolled posters for the first time ever on draft day.    I love 3D White.......as I've said many times I had him ranked #1 CB in the draft over the hamstrung Lattimore.........but I am still in disbelief that they passed on a QB last draft.

 

 

 

 

    

I think they definitely draft a qb first this year assuming they don't sign Cousins. 

[BADOLBILZ]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think they definitely draft a qb first this year assuming they don't sign Cousins. 

 

 

I have my doubts.........there is always a reason with this franchise.

 

If they get Alex Smith they might figure they've bought some time.    

 

I think Smith HAS to go in KC........he's totally painted into a corner.    He has failed to play to his ability time and again.   Tyrod could be retained in Buffalo.........he's reached the point where nothing he does well is appreciated........but he's not in Smith's situation and he certainly doesn't have a stud talent on the bench waiting to play.    

[smuvtalker]

On 12/29/2017 at 10:13 PM, MAJBobby said:

Also my question i dont really want to look it up is with our amazing TO differenctial what are 

 

Bills Points off TO?

Opp points off their TOs?

 

a TO doesnt help much if Our pop warner offense led by the Ultra Conservative blah QB cant get points does it?

 

perfect example 

 

Bills finish the game plus two in TO Diff

 

however their 3 TOs resulted jn 6 points 

 

opp has 1 pick resulted in 7. 

 

Does TO Diff mean something then?

Spot on Major.  Yes, it's true, Taylor doesn't throw INTs.  Well, he also doesn't throw touchdowns either.   Too many times this year our opportunistic secondary came away with picks, only to see us squander scoring opportunities with a field goal, or even worse a 3 and out only to give the ball right back to our opponent, with maybe a slight change in field position.

 

To me, THAT was one of the most vital statistics of the year, being points scored off of turnovers, and the lack of points being scored off of turnovers has to fall directly on Tyrod.  

 

Think about this for a second.  Taylor is not oblivious to what the media, "experts", coaches and fans are saying about him.  He knows that he is perceived as mediocre passer, who only throws to receivers if they are blatantly open.  He rarely ever throws to receivers hitting them in stride, and is flat out incapable of "throwing receivers open". These attributes are just not in his arsenal, and if he hasnt learned them in his seven years in the league, and 3 as a starter, he probably never will.

 

Rewind to yesterday morning.  Tyrod knew all too well that for the Bills to beat the Jaguars, he was going to have to play the game of his life.  Not only that, but I'm quite certain he saw the writing on the wall that this was probably his last game playing for the Bills.  So in essence, this was his audition tape for the rest of the league.  So much on the line for this young man, playing in the biggest game of his career.  This was absolutely his time to play out of his gourd, to go balls out.

 

What does he do?  Goes out and plays EXACTLY how he always has.  Safe, conservative, mistake-free football.  Not seeing receivers who were butt-naked open, waiting to throw to a receiver until there wasnt an opposing player within 5 yards of him in any direction, and overthrowing receivers at least 4 times yesterday when every single one of them had at least a step or two on their man.  And I know this one isn't Taylor's fault, but his counterpart, Blake Bortles, looked like the second coming of John Riggins, rushing for damn near 100 yards!!  This day, this game, was Taylor's biggest game of his career, a chance to prove ALL his naysayers wrong, and to let it all hang on the line.  And what does he do?   He figuratively sh!ts the bed.  He didn't even TRY to stick some passes into some tight windows.  He didn't even attempt to throw it to a receiver running a pattern and try to hit him in stride, and when the receivers were covered, and it was legitimately time to take off, he continued to sit in the pocket, looking downfield waiting for a receiver to come open.  He displayed ALL of the traits that made fans and coaches alike so furious with him.  It's like, I would have rather have seen 2 or three picks from him, knowing that he TRIED to stick some throws, or tried to go deep on some long bombs.   But he did exactly what he's done his entire starting career.  Played it extra safe, hoping to keep his semi-impressive stat line safe.  And it is for that reason, and that reason alone that under no circumstances should he return to the field as a member of the Buffalo Bills.

Edited January 8, 2018 by smuvtalker

[Coach Tuesday]

45 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think they definitely draft a qb first this year assuming they don't sign Cousins. 

 

Just wait Dave, just you wait.  They have four months to talk themselves out of it.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

As I said before the season if the offense struggled Tyrod will be the scape goat.

 

Fans are bitching about the lack of TDs and poor offensive performances but the offense was tops in the league in those categories last year and fans still bitched about Tyrod so he basically had no shot. 

 

He was not good yesterday, but as I've said a million times, in the right system he is solid. 

 

Not a system that takes away his strengths while trying to slowly inch down the field in 15 to 20 play drives.

 

Not a fan of Dennisons offense. Dennison should go as Tyrod inevitably does.

 

Who?

 

They put themselves in no mans land by not drafting one last year.  Now they are sitting deep in the draft and just about every good prospect will in all likelihood be gone by then.

Disagree. The 21st, 22nd, 53rd, and 57th picks constitute a ton of ammo to move up. If they want to move up, they have plenty to deal. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea they do. They need to pull the trigger and do it. I'm not convinced they will.

I don't think they're stupid at all. Beane and McDermott come from a division in which the qbs are 2 #1 overall picks, a #3 overall pick, and a #30 overall pick (from 2001) who is one of the best qbs in league history.  They also get regularly pummeled by the team with THE best qb in league history. They will grab a qb early if they don't get a player like Cousins (arguably a franchise-level qb). 

Edited January 8, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

As I said before the season if the offense struggled Tyrod will be the scape goat.

 

Fans are bitching about the lack of TDs and poor offensive performances but the offense was tops in the league in those categories last year and fans still bitched about Tyrod so he basically had no shot. 

 

He was not good yesterday, but as I've said a million times, in the right system he is solid. 

 

Not a system that takes away his strengths while trying to slowly inch down the field in 15 to 20 play drives.

 

Not a fan of Dennisons offense. Dennison should go as Tyrod inevitably does.

 

Who?

 

They put themselves in no mans land by not drafting one last year.  Now they are sitting deep in the draft and just about every good prospect will in all likelihood be gone by then.

 

 

The Bills had an 18 play drive yesterday.

 

That was at least the second 18 play drive of the year(they had one against Atlanta).

 

My disgust at the passing offense is offset some by my shock at them being able to do that.

 

Third down conversions have protected the Bills vulnerable front 7 much of the year.

 

This is a Jags team that intercepted Big Ben 5 times.........if you play careless football you will pay..........and then your demoralized defense will be vulnerable to Fournette.

 

Bills were totally overmatched talent-wise in Jax but played it close and nearly got away with it again...........a few less mistakes(that Breon Borders penalty on the punt was the killer that set up the Jags first field goal)..........and a couple more catches on offense and defense and they very well get out of there with a win.   

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Well, look what we have here! The usual three-way anti-McD pro-Tyrod circle jerk.

 

 

CAN'T WAIT till they ship #5 out of town!

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm feeling today like Drew felt on the car ride home.

The experience this weekend got me through the drive home yesterday....great time.

 

Yeah man, I am hurting today. Just physically exhausted. Well worth it though!

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There is nothing to defend..........he played like Tyrod has played in this offense ALL SEASON LONG yesterday.

 

Perhaps the biggest upside from a board viewing perspective is that the "CHURCH OF DRAFT A QB FIRST"..........of which I am the leader........ *may* actually exceed 2% of enrolled posters for the first time ever on draft day.    I love 3D White.......as I've said many times I had him ranked #1 CB in the draft over the hamstrung Lattimore.........but I am still in disbelief that they passed on a QB last draft.

 

 

 

 

    

 

I will allow you to claim that leadership position because I witnessed you banging the table to draft Lynch over Lawson, and regardless of Lynch's performance, understand the logic behind the strategy.

 

I'm to the point that if this FO doesnt draft a QB early this year, I'm about to have a "I am done with this team" meltdown. There will be no point in even following the Bills any longer since they will never be anything more than what we've seen the last 20 years.

 

McD passed on a QB because, while he was comfortable using Whaley's team's info for picking CBs and LBs, he wasnt about to stake his coaching career on their QB analysis. Which, imo, is a smart move. Unfortunate, but smart nevertheless. I do believe McD knows he needs to get a QB. He also knows the perspective of his coaching career will depend directly on that QB. He had to wait to get his GM and scouting staff in. I liked Whaley, but I wouldnt trust his QB analysis either.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah man, I am hurting today. Just physically exhausted. Well worth it though!

 

I will allow you to claim that leadership position because I witnessed you banging the table to draft Lynch over Lawson, and regardless of Lynch's performance, understand the logic behind the strategy.

 

I'm to the point that if this FO doesnt draft a QB early this year, I'm about to have a "I am done with this team" meltdown. There will be no point in even following the Bills any longer since they will never be anything more than what we've seen the last 20 years.

 

McD passed on a QB because, while he was comfortable using Whaley's team's info for picking CBs and LBs, he wasnt about to stake his coaching career on their QB analysis. Which, imo, is a smart move. Unfortunate, but smart nevertheless. I do believe McD knows he needs to get a QB. He also knows the perspective of his coaching career will depend directly on that QB. He had to wait to get his GM and scouting staff in. I liked Whaley, but I wouldnt trust his QB analysis either.

 

 

I've been saying the Bills should "treat the draft like a process instead of an event" on TSW for over a decade now.(That was pre-"Saban process" talk even)

 

Because when it all comes down to it long term success is mostly about QB play.

 

I used to point out that the Bills only had 3 or 4 or 5 of their first rounders on their roster to prove how little they had to show for never being all in on a QB on draft day.

 

On Sunday......they only had ONE on the field....2017 pick 3D White.

 

 And that's STILL not why they didn't go deep into the playoffs.

 

Keep taking the best QB available.

 

57 straight drafts never being all-in on a single QB........I'm WAY PAST being critical of which that QB is........I wasn't very high on Paxton Lynch at all but I was fine with that pick if the Bills felt he was the BQBA......it's as simple as that......my bpa was Myles Jack and yeah he's been a far better pick than Shaq but even if he turns into another Luke Kuechly or Shaq turns into a stud pass rusher they are not worth possibly missing on a franchise QB and 10-15 years of only being a few good moves from SB contention at any time.

 

I supported the EJ Manuel pick even though I thought he was a full-on 3-5 year project with the caveat that it's only wrong if they use it as an excuse not to try agin.

 

I really liked the upside of Mahomes last year but would have been fine with Watson too.   

 

QB evaluation is an inexact science.   The same guys that built a dominant Seahawks defense with shrewd drafting thought Charlie Whitehurst and Matt Flynn were potential franchise QB's and only got lucky with Russ Wilson because they tried even though they had just recently invested picks and a big contract in Whitehurst and Flynn.   The list of great personnel men that picked bust QB's is long for a reason.

 

But it's a lottery ticket in a league of 32 where 2/3 of the field isn't even playing in a given year.

 

By not simply taking that QB they've passed on 4 SB winning QB's and a number of other very good QB's during the drought who may win SB's yet.

 

They aren't in QB Purgatory........they just aren't trying hard enough.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by BADOLBILZ