bmur66 Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) I think the Bills can hang with them for the first 30. Not so sure about the 2nd 30. Tyrod needs to discover Kelvin Benjamin and not worry about throwing a 50/50 ball to him. Gonna have to take some chances. A repeat of how they played in the 2nd half against Miami won't cut it Edited December 20, 2017 by bmur66
KW95 - JA17 Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 the only important stat is a W: I would say that PATS have dominated both yearly games and Bills suck balls in most of them.
artmalibu Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 I think this team has a set of nuts, and is going to come out fighting!!!
CLTbills Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Jerry Jabber said: Thanks! You're right about McDermott and how the Bills looked against the Jets in the second matchup. It makes me wonder how the Bills will do against the Dolphins in two weeks (hopefully not a repeat of the Steelers game from 2004). You're missing the point. The Patriots are obviously doing things much better against the Bills in the second divisional matchup. Whether that is because the Patriots coaches are that much smarter than the Bills coaches; the Bills coaches are not changing things up when it comes to the second matchup, combination of both or there's much more to it. Honestly, he's not missing the point. The point is, all of those numbers from 15 years ago mean NOTHING. Those were teams with different players and different coaches. The only thing the same is the logo on the helmet.
SaviorPeterman Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, bmur66 said: I think the Bills can hang with them for the first 30. Not so sure about the 2nd 30. Tyrod needs to discover Kelvin Benjamin and not worry about throwing a 50/50 ball to him. Gonna have to take some chances. A repeat of how they played in the 2nd half against Miami won't cut it The Bills have yet to play a full 60 minute game all season and they would need to do that just to keep this game close in the 4th quarter and have a chance at the upset let alone actually win.
Chandemonium Posted December 20, 2017 Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, KelsaysLunchbox said: That's true, let's just hope the Jets game isn't an indication of how his team performs in a rematch. This is correct. That's why they play the games out. Sooner or later we will defeat Brady in a meaningful game. This may just be that Sunday. Also, would be interesting to see not how the Bills do in 2nd matchups against NE, but how NE does in the 2nd matchup. Not only against the Dolphins and Jets, but they see the Steelers, Ravens, Colts and many other AFC teams once during the regular season and the elite teams once during post season. Pretty certain they dominate those 2nd matchups as well. The last time they played a team 3 times they lost to the Jets in the divisional round, however. We just need to get in the playoffs one way or another, win a wildcard game, and 3rd time's the charm!
Jerry Jabber Posted December 20, 2017 Author Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, CLTbills said: Honestly, he's not missing the point. The point is, all of those numbers from 15 years ago mean NOTHING. Those were teams with different players and different coaches. The only thing the same is the logo on the helmet. “Nothing” except a lot of losses and by a wider margin. Coincidence or bad luck? It’s obvious the Patriots are doing things to have better results in the second matchup. Different players, different coaches, different schemes, same results.
Jerry Jabber Posted December 20, 2017 Author Posted December 20, 2017 During Spygate, taping signals was a big reason why the Patriots did better against the Bills and Dolphins in the second divisional games. “Looking back on it, several former Patriots coaches insist that spying helped them most against less sophisticated teams -- the Dolphins and Bills chief among them -- whose coaches didn't bother changing their signals.” http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/13533995/split-nfl-new-england-patriots-apart
White Linen Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 I never realized the Patriots dominated us until now. Those dang coaches they have, wow.
Heavy Kevi Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 7 hours ago, bmur66 said: I think the Bills can hang with them for the first 30. Not so sure about the 2nd 30. Tyrod needs to discover Kelvin Benjamin and not worry about throwing a 50/50 ball to him. Gonna have to take some chances. A repeat of how they played in the 2nd half against Miami won't cut it I hear you but I don't know how well KB and Tyrods style mesh. Tyrod is a "see it now throw it" qb that cannot throw with anticipation, and does not throw it unless only his player has a chance at it. KB is not a separation receiver, he is (as you infer) a big bodied "contested catch" receiver who uses his body to shield the defender from the ball, and strong hands to battle for the it. I doubt KB is going to start getting separation, and so I doubt TT starts targeting him excessively. The slants, comebacks, and deep outs are probably our best chance.
Domdab99 Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 You realize almost all of the players on those past teams aren't on the current one, so this argument is quite weak. The Bills might get blown out again, but it's not because they've blown out a lot in the past.
Thurman#1 Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 11 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said: While I'd love to see the Bills beat the Patriots at Foxboro in a meaningful game and one in which the Patriots starters play the entire game, the odds of that happening are not good. Since 2001, the Bills have fared better in the first divisional matchup against the Patriots than in the second game. Here are the scores from the first divisional games against the Patriots since 2001: 11-21; 7-38; 31-0 (Bills win); 17-31; 16-21; 17-19; 7-38; 10-20; 24-25; 30-38; 34-31 (W); 28-52; 21-23; 22-37; 32-40; 16-0 (W). In that time span, the Patriots scored 434 points compared to 323 for the Bills, leaving a 111 point difference. Here are the scores from the second divisional games against the Patriots since 2001: 9-12; 17-27; 0-31; 6-29; 7-35; 6-28; 10-56; 0-13; 10-17; 3-34; 21-49; 31-37; 20-34; 17-9 (W); 13-20; 25-41. In that time span, the Patriots scored 472 points (38 more than the first divisional games) compared to 195 for the Bills (128 points less), leaving a 277 point difference (166 greater than the first divisional games). Part of the problem in the past when it came to the second divisional game vs the Patriots, the Bills coaches/players did not alter their offensive and defensive signals which made it easier for the Patriots to pick up. I hope McDermott and his coaches are smart enough to change things up for this game. I hope history does not repeat itself and the Bills get the win on Sunday, but past history has shown the second game against the Patriots have been worse for the Bills. Hunh. I knew it was a trend but didn't realize what a powerful one. Interesting.
Thurman#1 Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 11 hours ago, TigerJ said: There's never been an Sean McDermott coached Bills team before this year. We've had nine new coaches for the years since 2001. Of course that includes Perry Fewell and Anthony Lynn, coaches only for a few games. Still seven new coaches in seventeen years. If we did just fine with new coaches, our overall numbers would be pretty good. They aren't. A new coach isn't necessarily anything that upsets the tendency.
Doc Brown Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said: The Bills have yet to play a full 60 minute game all season and they would need to do that just to keep this game close in the 4th quarter and have a chance at the upset let alone actually win. Raiders game Edited December 21, 2017 by Doc Brown
Fadingpain Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Domdab99 said: You realize almost all of the players on those past teams aren't on the current one, so this argument is quite weak. The Bills might get blown out again, but it's not because they've blown out a lot in the past. You're missing what the data shows. The average margin of victory in the first game more than doubles from game 1 to game 2. What is the constant here? Brady, and Belichick. The obvious conclusion is that Belichick learns and applies more to the 2nd matchup than the Bills coach, given the benefit of seeing what the Bills try to do against the Patriots in game 1, in any given year, with any given Bills HC, with any given combination of players. If the Patriots cycled through coaching staffs and QBs like we have over the same time period, the data would be pretty meaningless, but not with Belichick at the helm over all these years. It is true that BB has not yet had the double matchup in a single season with McDummy, but given his track record over a fairly sustained period of time against a wide variety of coaches, one could conclude he will get the better of McIdiot in the second matchup as well. This doesn't mean, of course, that the Patriots will beat the Bills, or beat them by more than double the margin of victory in the first matchup. It just means the odds show we are likely to lose. The odds in a game of Blackjack don't favor the player either; doesn't mean you can win a single game in isolation. 1
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 That's the spirit! Raise the white flag and surrender.
Jerry Jabber Posted December 21, 2017 Author Posted December 21, 2017 5 hours ago, Domdab99 said: You realize almost all of the players on those past teams aren't on the current one, so this argument is quite weak. The Bills might get blown out again, but it's not because they've blown out a lot in the past. You’re missing the point. The Patriots coaches and players are doing things so they are better prepared and have better results in the second matchup. Part of it was uncovered during Spygate as Patriots employees noticed teams like the Bills and Dolphins did not change their signals between games, so I’m sure that has continued. Seems the Patriots are better at reviewing film/game tape, deciphering signals and who else knows what they’re doing to get an advantage. 16 years, different Bills coaches, players and schemes, but still the same results.
BigBuff423 Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 Say what you will about Belichick and the Pats*, but he does adjust well both in game and certainly throughout the year. It has largely been this singular fact that separates him from many other HCs, he adjusts his approach and reacts to the game and the tendencies of the team. McDermott and company need to demonstrate they learned from the Jets debacle that their divisional opponents especially will get a chance to adjust their game plan based on film study and learning about the Bills' tendencies. I'm hoping McD and his staff recognize that the Pats will be doing different things, giving different looks, making different calls / audibles, and will have more on film and be more ready to take them on, so that means McD and Bills need to do the same. We'll see...
Steptide Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 I'm curious when the last time was that we played both games against the Pats so close together? I don't remember the last time we played both games 3 weeks apart, if ever
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted December 21, 2017 Posted December 21, 2017 How many of those Bills teams were playing for their playoff lives in week 16? I think I know the answer.
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