Playoff Scenarios

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

After the beatdown they took on MNF they are going to destroy the Steelers. 

 

Gronk will have at least 2 TDS

Remember they do play this game IN Pittsburgh.

[PromoTheRobot]

All that needs to happen is Brady having his season ended.

[Tuco]

On 12/13/2017 at 1:36 PM, Reddy Freddy said:

Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place.  I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:

 

1) Bills win 2 of their final 3

2) Kansas City beats San Diego this weekend

3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville  

Sorry but we don't get in under that scenario. If all that happened the 3 teams would be 9-7. Our head to head over KC would be meaningless since head to head only applies if one team beat the other two or lost to the other two. All 3 would be 9-7 in conference games. Common opponents also wouldn't apply since there won't be the minimum of 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. That goes to strength of victory which KC owns.

 

If we're going to get into a 3 way with Tennessee (or Baltimore) it needs to be with San Diego. H2H still doesn't apply but then SD would drop out because of their worse conference record. We would then take Tennessee out with the common opponents (all assuming we beat the Phish X2 and Tenn loses to Jags to get to 9-7) or possibly Baltimore with SOV.

 

 

 

 

[MC Hamburg]

We need to back our Bills until the they are mathematically eliminated....seems like they really want to pull off a playoff birth more so than I have seen in years. Tyrod is getting healthy and practicing.... so expect these last 3 games to be the best and hardest fought games that we have witnessed in a long time. It just seems a little different this year as when you count them out they pull off a win...I fully believe they will thump the Dolphins at home this Sunday!!! Got to Believe in McDermott, Shady, Tyrod and Kyle Williams in this moment of truth...these guys exhume toughness, will and determination! LETS DO THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Dilly Dilly

[Tuco]

NOTE: All of the following assumes we beat the Phish twice and go 9-7.

 

If we're going to get in a two team tie then we want KC to win. But if we're getting in a 3 team tie we want San Diego. Head to head doesn't count in 3 way ties unless one team beat the other 2 or lost to them both. So then SD would get eliminated because of their worse conference record. But KC would probably take it with SOV.

 

Yes it is possible to beat the Ravens at 9-7 contrary to popular belief. If the Ravens loss comes to the Colts or the Bengals. That would tie us in conference record and in common opponents. SOV would probably be ours.

 

Tennessee we would beat in common opponents as long as one of their losses comes to the Jags (to make their conference record 7-5).

 

The fact is, at this point we really don't know if we want KC or SD to win. But when it's over we'll have a better idea of what we need.

[Boatdrinks]

On 12/13/2017 at 2:22 PM, ShadyBillsFan said:

these scenarios are forked

 

I just had Cleveland defeat the Ravens and that caused the Bills to drop out of the WC 

Nothing is a lock until I see the final results in 2 or 3 weeks

 

Step 1 - Defeat the Dolphins 

 

Strength of Victory will kill this team!!! 

Actually SOV is the most likely path into the playoffs for the Bills. Common opponents could doom them. You are correct about this: If BAL loses to CLE AND the Titans defeat JAX OR win any two games the Bills are done. That is a tiebreaker oddity, though an unlikely one as it involves CLE defeating BAL. Assuming that combination of events doesn't occur, there are more scenarios that put the Bills in on SOV than a head to head with KC. 

3 hours ago, Tuco said:

Sorry but we don't get in under that scenario. If all that happened the 3 teams would be 9-7. Our head to head over KC would be meaningless since head to head only applies if one team beat the other two or lost to the other two. All 3 would be 9-7 in conference games. Common opponents also wouldn't apply since there won't be the minimum of 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. That goes to strength of victory which KC owns.

 

If we're going to get into a 3 way with Tennessee (or Baltimore) it needs to be with San Diego. H2H still doesn't apply but then SD would drop out because of their worse conference record. We would then take Tennessee out with the common opponents (all assuming we beat the Phish X2 and Tenn loses to Jags to get to 9-7) or possibly Baltimore with SOV.

 

 

 

 

The scenario described WOULD put the Bills in assuming that the OP meant KC defeats LAC and also finishes 9-7. KC would win AFCW by virtue of 2wins over LAC. That would put BUF, LAC, TEN at 9-7 3 way tie which would go to BUF based on SOV tiebreak 

[Tuco]

4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

 

The scenario described WOULD put the Bills in assuming that the OP meant KC defeats LAC and also finishes 9-7. KC would win AFCW by virtue of 2wins over LAC. That would put BUF, LAC, TEN at 9-7 3 way tie which would go to BUF based on SOV tiebreak 

Yes. What was I thinking? Brain fart.

[Pbomb]

18 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

Patriots lose last 3, Bills win last 3 and beat the Cheatriots by 21. We would win the AFC East I believe! One can only dream ?

I think this is the most likely scenario

[Kmart128]

On 12/13/2017 at 1:36 PM, Reddy Freddy said:

Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place.  I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:

 

1) Bills win 2 of their final 3

2) Kansas City beats San Diego this weekend

3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville  

1) Bills win 2 of 3

2) Chargers beat KC

3) Tennessee loses out

 

Either could easily happen with the way 49ers are playing. I'm not even gonna root for a KC Chargers game cause it's impossible to know what Tennessee will do with their 3 remaining games.

[Reddy Freddy]

19 hours ago, Tuco said:

Sorry but we don't get in under that scenario. If all that happened the 3 teams would be 9-7. Our head to head over KC would be meaningless since head to head only applies if one team beat the other two or lost to the other two. All 3 would be 9-7 in conference games. Common opponents also wouldn't apply since there won't be the minimum of 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. That goes to strength of victory which KC owns.

 

If we're going to get into a 3 way with Tennessee (or Baltimore) it needs to be with San Diego. H2H still doesn't apply but then SD would drop out because of their worse conference record. We would then take Tennessee out with the common opponents (all assuming we beat the Phish X2 and Tenn loses to Jags to get to 9-7) or possibly Baltimore with SOV.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry but we DO get in under that scenario.  KC at 9-7 wins the division over the Chargers, so the Chiefs are not up against us in wild card scenarios.  If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to play with the ESPN playoff machine.  It isn't 100% accurate always, but it's been pretty good lately.  

6 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

1) Bills win 2 of 3

2) Chargers beat KC

3) Tennessee loses out

 

Either could easily happen with the way 49ers are playing. I'm not even gonna root for a KC Chargers game cause it's impossible to know what Tennessee will do with their 3 remaining games.

 

Agreed.  That Chiefs-Chargers game is tricky, but I think we're in slightly better shape if the Chiefs win.  

15 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Actually SOV is the most likely path into the playoffs for the Bills. Common opponents could doom them. You are correct about this: If BAL loses to CLE AND the Titans defeat JAX OR win any two games the Bills are done. That is a tiebreaker oddity, though an unlikely one as it involves CLE defeating BAL. Assuming that combination of events doesn't occur, there are more scenarios that put the Bills in on SOV than a head to head with KC. 

The scenario described WOULD put the Bills in assuming that the OP meant KC defeats LAC and also finishes 9-7. KC would win AFCW by virtue of 2wins over LAC. That would put BUF, LAC, TEN at 9-7 3 way tie which would go to BUF based on SOV tiebreak 

 

Regarding the bolded part above, it actually doesn't matter what the Chiefs do the rest of the way if they beat the Chargers.  All that has to happen are the 3 items I listed in my original post.  Assuming the Chiefs beat the Chargers, KC either goes 9-7 or 10-6 and wins the division over the Chargers, or they go 8-8, lose the division, and are below us in the standings anyway (assuming Bills win 2 of 3).  In either case, we don't end up in a tie for a wild card with the Chiefs.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Reddy Freddy

[Tuco]

4 hours ago, Reddy Freddy said:

 

Sorry but we DO get in under that scenario.  KC at 9-7 wins the division over the Chargers, so the Chiefs are not up against us in wild card scenarios.  If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to play with the ESPN playoff machine.  It isn't 100% accurate always, but it's been pretty good lately.  

Yes thank you I already admitted in an earlier post that I had my head up my butt. For some reason when I was responding I was thinking if KC won we would be facing them in the tiebreaker. I know better just had a brain fart.

[RiotAct]

wouldn’t it be crazy if us, KC, LAC, BAL and TEN all finished 9-7?

[Reddy Freddy]

On 12/13/2017 at 1:36 PM, Reddy Freddy said:

Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place.  I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:

 

1) Bills win 2 of their final 3

2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend

3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville  

One down, two to go ...

[boyst]

Jacksonville is all over Houston, they'll win.

 

Pittsburgh beating New England* tonight puts Jax in 2nd

 

Jax in first place going @SF @Tennesee to finish the season against NE home to Buf and then the Jests.

 

Jax could be 2nd in the AFC, meaning NE* holds 3rd place meaning we face NE if we maintain the 6th seed.  

Ravens are 7th, @ Browns today then headed home to finish against Indy and Cinci.  They have no reason to lose again and finish 10-6

 

Chargers @ Jets then finish home against the Raiders.  They could win out to 9-7

 

I see Tennessee winning against SF and losing to LAR and Jacksonville, putting them at 9-7.

 

Tennessee beat Baltimore, Baltimore secures 6ht seed.

Edited December 17, 2017 by Boyst62
just jack is lame

[Tuco]

How does Tennessee at 9-7 push 10-6 Baltimore to the 6th seed?

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

How does Tennessee at 9-7 push 10-6 Baltimore to the 6th seed?

tennessee beat baltimore.

 

if baltimore loses or tennessee beats LAR or Jax.

 

my bad.

Edited December 17, 2017 by Boyst62
beerball

[Buffalo Barbarian]

If we win the rest of our games and the pats lose out, do we win the division?

 

 

[Jamie Nails]

Yes

[What a Tuel]

With a titans loss today we control our own destiny for the wildcard!

[Yeezus]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

With a titans loss today we control our own destiny for the wildcard!

 

we do but if the titans go 0-3 and us and the Chargers get to 9-7 were out

 

we need a 3 way tie to get in