2018 Trade partners moving up the board

[co_springs_billsfan]

I think people are still underestimating the combined value of (A) the most important position in football, and (B) the rookie wage scale.  Before the rookie wage scale you could swing and miss on a first round quarterback and set your franchise back for years. Now it doesn't hurt nearly as much to whiff and the upside is too much for teams to resist.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Pretty much agree.

 

Im baffled by the settling for Case Kenum suggestions.

 

Buffalo mentality. "Hey he's good enough! let's draft a DT in the first!"

 

[Tatonka68]

Without a Great QB, the Bills will be crap. OT, DT, LB, WR means NOTHING without a great QB. Look at Cincinnati they are loaded with talent but Dalton is a dud so they loose every playoff game. I would give EVERY draft pick to move up to get a franchise QB. 

[JohnC]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Pretty much agree.

 

Im baffled by the settling for Case Kenum suggestions.

You used an apt word (settling) to describe the mind-set of a mediocre and non-descript franchise that has been reluctant to strive for excellence. Is it a gamble to use assets to acquire a high end qb prospect? Sure it is. Go and ask the Rams or the Eagles or even Houston if it was worth it to give up assets to get their franchise qb? This settling for an Orton, Kolb, Brohm, fading Bledsoe and even Taylor caliber qbs has gotten us nowhere other than being irrelevant and boring. It's got to stop!  I believe that it will with this new regime. 

[The Now Moment]

9 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

IMO Your way off on this. Blindly just take one when their is a good 6 to pick from? For one the EJ draft had garbage for QB prospects and for two this draft is loaded with very good ones. Bills fans have been waiting forever for a legit franchise worthy prospect and this is the year they do it.

Like I said, if there is one there that is the right fit and we actually think he will succeed here, then take him.  However, just because there are 6 there, doesn't mean they will be the right guy for this team.  Again, I am not for just blindly taking one that may not be that great a fit.  Not all of these guys are great, don't just listen to what other people say.  Some experts don't think Rudolph should be taken in the top 2 rounds.  Some don't have Mayfield in the first round.  Some don't have Jackson in the first round.  Some don't have Allen being taken in the first round. If you actually watch these guys play, there are holes in their games.  I have my own opinions on the class.  Like I said, I'm not blindly taking one just to take one.  That's just poor drafting.  If they actually love the guy and think he's the next franchise QB, then let's do it.  Impatience can hurt us if we don't take a guy we love.  Honestly, I don't care how long we've waited previously.  Bottom line, you don't take a QB in the 1st round unless you love him and think you can coach him up.  

 

There's a reason a guy like Watson was so successful coming out.  He went to the perfect team.  Former college coach Bill O'brien ran a college system similar to the one that Watson ran at Clemson and that familiarity clearly helped him. The fit was right.  Does he have the same type of success with a different team that may not know how to use him like O'brien does?  That's why I don't see us taking a guy like Lamar Jackson.  I don't think we want to deal with anymore QBs who run and potentially put themselves in danger.  Watson, although a great talent is already injured in his first year.  RG3 was constantly hurt.  EJ got hurt on a running play.  Tyrod is and has been hurt.  I think they want to move away from that.

 

Personally, I don't think Rudolph has the type of mobility that they are looking for.  Not that they want a running QB but a guy who can roll out of the pocket and make passes outside the pocket on the run will certainly be something we look for as that will take some pressure off of the offensive line.  He also seems to have the worst arm strength in terms of zip amongst the top QBs in this class.  For those reasons, I don't want him and don't think he'll be that successful here.

 

So that brings me down to 4 QBs that I'd be willing to take in the 1st round.

 

I agree, I believe we will end up taking a QB but our draft picks are both in the 20s right now.  Depending on how the draft goes, it'll be difficult to get one of the top guys even if we trade up.  Who knows who falls or if 4 go in the top 10.  We may end up having to trade the house for a guy like Allen or Mayfield who aren't the first tier guys in this class.  Also, the trade partner may not be there.  Who knows if a team would be willing to trade back all the way to the twenties from the top ten if those 4 guys are sure to be taken in the top 10.  We will see.  All I'm saying is don't draft a guy unless you absolutely love him.  Just because we have a need doesn't mean we need to force the issue in the first round and grab just anybody.  Look at the 1983 draft class.  Obviously that's a few years ago haha but 6 QBs went in that class which has been deemed one of the best ever.  6 QBs in the first round and 3 ended up being hall of famers, 1 ended up being good and 2 ended up being busts and that is considered one of the best QB classes of all time.  Don't just blindly take one or we may end up with the Tony Eason/Todd Blackledge of the class.  

 

I will say that I think that if we don't get Rosen or Darnold, we should try to bring in a veteran QB like Bradford for a year to help the rookie learn a little.  If Bradford gets hurt, you can throw in the rookie with Bradford to stay in the rookie's ear and help him out.  We shall see.  Obviously, I hope we find our guy this year no matter where we end up drafting him. 

 

We will be able to better gage how high these QBs will go once the senior bowl, combine and interviews are over.  

 

 

[Luxy312]

There are arguably five quarterbacks in this upcoming draft that have first round pick value.  Given all the other needs on this team, I don't see a single reason to give up a bunch of draft picks to move up.  As far as Darnold and Rosen, they're not even rated the top prospect on most scouts boards right now.  They're coming in at #3/#4, behind Jackson and Rudolph.  They're basically hovering around 15-20th in terms of projected pick value.  As far as Baker Mayfield is concerned, the Bills may be able to trade down and still get him.  He's projected to be a very late first round pick or an early second.  Remember when the Bills gave up a bunch of picks to move up because they thought a guy was so much better than his peers?  Sammy Watkins anyone?  Would anyone disagree that if we could undo that move and draft Evans or Beckham that we would have been happier?  It's the same with the QB situation for me this year.  I get that people are fed up with not having a franchise QB.  The Bills don't.  Trying to force it isn't the answer though.

[xRUSHx]

50 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Like I said, if there is one there that is the right fit and we actually think he will succeed here, then take him.  However, just because there are 6 there, doesn't mean they will be the right guy for this team.  Again, I am not for just blindly taking one that may not be that great a fit.  Not all of these guys are great, don't just listen to what other people say.  Some experts don't think Rudolph should be taken in the top 2 rounds.  Some don't have Mayfield in the first round.  Some don't have Jackson in the first round.  Some don't have Allen being taken in the first round. If you actually watch these guys play, there are holes in their games.  I have my own opinions on the class.  Like I said, I'm not blindly taking one just to take one.  That's just poor drafting.  If they actually love the guy and think he's the next franchise QB, then let's do it.  Impatience can hurt us if we don't take a guy we love.  Honestly, I don't care how long we've waited previously.  Bottom line, you don't take a QB in the 1st round unless you love him and think you can coach him up.  

 

There's a reason a guy like Watson was so successful coming out.  He went to the perfect team.  Former college coach Bill O'brien ran a college system similar to the one that Watson ran at Clemson and that familiarity clearly helped him. The fit was right.  Does he have the same type of success with a different team that may not know how to use him like O'brien does?  That's why I don't see us taking a guy like Lamar Jackson.  I don't think we want to deal with anymore QBs who run and potentially put themselves in danger.  Watson, although a great talent is already injured in his first year.  RG3 was constantly hurt.  EJ got hurt on a running play.  Tyrod is and has been hurt.  I think they want to move away from that.

 

Personally, I don't think Rudolph has the type of mobility that they are looking for.  Not that they want a running QB but a guy who can roll out of the pocket and make passes outside the pocket on the run will certainly be something we look for as that will take some pressure off of the offensive line.  He also seems to have the worst arm strength in terms of zip amongst the top QBs in this class.  For those reasons, I don't want him and don't think he'll be that successful here.

 

So that brings me down to 4 QBs that I'd be willing to take in the 1st round.

 

I agree, I believe we will end up taking a QB but our draft picks are both in the 20s right now.  Depending on how the draft goes, it'll be difficult to get one of the top guys even if we trade up.  Who knows who falls or if 4 go in the top 10.  We may end up having to trade the house for a guy like Allen or Mayfield who aren't the first tier guys in this class.  Also, the trade partner may not be there.  Who knows if a team would be willing to trade back all the way to the twenties from the top ten if those 4 guys are sure to be taken in the top 10.  We will see.  All I'm saying is don't draft a guy unless you absolutely love him.  Just because we have a need doesn't mean we need to force the issue in the first round and grab just anybody.  Look at the 1983 draft class.  Obviously that's a few years ago haha but 6 QBs went in that class which has been deemed one of the best ever.  6 QBs in the first round and 3 ended up being hall of famers, 1 ended up being good and 2 ended up being busts and that is considered one of the best QB classes of all time.  Don't just blindly take one or we may end up with the Tony Eason/Todd Blackledge of the class.  

 

I will say that I think that if we don't get Rosen or Darnold, we should try to bring in a veteran QB like Bradford for a year to help the rookie learn a little.  If Bradford gets hurt, you can throw in the rookie with Bradford to stay in the rookie's ear and help him out.  We shall see.  Obviously, I hope we find our guy this year no matter where we end up drafting him. 

 

We will be able to better gage how high these QBs will go once the senior bowl, combine and interviews are over.  

 

 

Once you said to bring in Bradford I seen all I need to with your judgement. 

 

No late round QBs for me, move up and take who you want over waiting for someone to fall. They can not say they got their guy if all they did was wait for whoever was left.

Edited December 15, 2017 by xRUSHx

[CEN-CAL17]

I’d almost bet the Bills trade down out of both spots. End up with 2 1st rd picks between 20-32 and gain extra 2nd and 3rd picks.

 

Would be surprised if we end up with 3 2nd rd picks and 3 3rd rd picks a total of 8 picks in top 100.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Luxy312 said:

There are arguably five quarterbacks in this upcoming draft that have first round pick value.  Given all the other needs on this team, I don't see a single reason to give up a bunch of draft picks to move up.  As far as Darnold and Rosen, they're not even rated the top prospect on most scouts boards right now.  They're coming in at #3/#4, behind Jackson and Rudolph.  They're basically hovering around 15-20th in terms of projected pick value.  As far as Baker Mayfield is concerned, the Bills may be able to trade down and still get him.  He's projected to be a very late first round pick or an early second.  Remember when the Bills gave up a bunch of picks to move up because they thought a guy was so much better than his peers?  Sammy Watkins anyone?  Would anyone disagree that if we could undo that move and draft Evans or Beckham that we would have been happier?  It's the same with the QB situation for me this year.  I get that people are fed up with not having a franchise QB.  The Bills don't.  Trying to force it isn't the answer though.

 

This is simply not the case in most circles. They are easily the top two QB prospects should they declare.

[Luxy312]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2018/QB  There's one that would disagree with you right away.

 

The simple point is that you can argue it until you're blue in the face.  The ONLY way that the Bills could justify moving up is if THEY think there's a player that's better than the other 4.  There just simply is not.  This is not a Wentz/Goff or Luck/RGIII year where QB's are going 1-2.  Seriously think people are smoking something if they think that's what's going to happen.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Luxy312 said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2018/QB  There's one that would disagree with you right away.

 

 

I said most, not all.   Trapasso's ranking is an outlier. 

[Luxy312]

Not really.  When I see Jackson, Rudolph, Rosen and Darnold all rated as the #1 QB prospect according to different so called "experts", it's pretty clear to me that there isn't a lead horse in this race.  That's the more compelling point, no matter how you might like to spin it to promote the QB that you think is best.  Personally, I think Lamar Jackson will be the first QB off the board.  That's based on what we saw this year from Watson prior to his injury.  Big dynamic QB that can throw and run.  Sam Darnold is a statue that reminds me of Matt Leinhart.  No thanks.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Buffalo30 said:

Like I said, if there is one there that is the right fit and we actually think he will succeed here, then take him.  However, just because there are 6 there, doesn't mean they will be the right guy for this team.  Again, I am not for just blindly taking one that may not be that great a fit.  Not all of these guys are great, don't just listen to what other people say.  Some experts don't think Rudolph should be taken in the top 2 rounds.  Some don't have Mayfield in the first round.  Some don't have Jackson in the first round.  Some don't have Allen being taken in the first round. If you actually watch these guys play, there are holes in their games.  I have my own opinions on the class.  Like I said, I'm not blindly taking one just to take one.  That's just poor drafting.  If they actually love the guy and think he's the next franchise QB, then let's do it.  Impatience can hurt us if we don't take a guy we love.  Honestly, I don't care how long we've waited previously.  Bottom line, you don't take a QB in the 1st round unless you love him and think you can coach him up.  

 

There's a reason a guy like Watson was so successful coming out.  He went to the perfect team.  Former college coach Bill O'brien ran a college system similar to the one that Watson ran at Clemson and that familiarity clearly helped him. The fit was right.  Does he have the same type of success with a different team that may not know how to use him like O'brien does?  That's why I don't see us taking a guy like Lamar Jackson.  I don't think we want to deal with anymore QBs who run and potentially put themselves in danger.  Watson, although a great talent is already injured in his first year.  RG3 was constantly hurt.  EJ got hurt on a running play.  Tyrod is and has been hurt.  I think they want to move away from that.

 

Personally, I don't think Rudolph has the type of mobility that they are looking for.  Not that they want a running QB but a guy who can roll out of the pocket and make passes outside the pocket on the run will certainly be something we look for as that will take some pressure off of the offensive line.  He also seems to have the worst arm strength in terms of zip amongst the top QBs in this class.  For those reasons, I don't want him and don't think he'll be that successful here.

 

So that brings me down to 4 QBs that I'd be willing to take in the 1st round.

 

I agree, I believe we will end up taking a QB but our draft picks are both in the 20s right now.  Depending on how the draft goes, it'll be difficult to get one of the top guys even if we trade up.  Who knows who falls or if 4 go in the top 10.  We may end up having to trade the house for a guy like Allen or Mayfield who aren't the first tier guys in this class.  Also, the trade partner may not be there.  Who knows if a team would be willing to trade back all the way to the twenties from the top ten if those 4 guys are sure to be taken in the top 10.  We will see.  All I'm saying is don't draft a guy unless you absolutely love him.  Just because we have a need doesn't mean we need to force the issue in the first round and grab just anybody.  Look at the 1983 draft class.  Obviously that's a few years ago haha but 6 QBs went in that class which has been deemed one of the best ever.  6 QBs in the first round and 3 ended up being hall of famers, 1 ended up being good and 2 ended up being busts and that is considered one of the best QB classes of all time.  Don't just blindly take one or we may end up with the Tony Eason/Todd Blackledge of the class.  

 

I will say that I think that if we don't get Rosen or Darnold, we should try to bring in a veteran QB like Bradford for a year to help the rookie learn a little.  If Bradford gets hurt, you can throw in the rookie with Bradford to stay in the rookie's ear and help him out.  We shall see.  Obviously, I hope we find our guy this year no matter where we end up drafting him. 

 

We will be able to better gage how high these QBs will go once the senior bowl, combine and interviews are over.  

 

 

You are right.  Taking a Qb because you have to leaves you with EJ,  That draft was ultra thin at Qb.  The first place they will need to look is in Fa and Vetran Qbs.  There will be a handful available.  I think you find an improvement over Taylor first. if that doesn't happen you keep Tyrod to limit a desperation pick.  After free agency but starting at the combine you try to gauge interest in the top 2 spots.  Picks player nothing is off the table if Both Darnold and Rosen come out.  In there own right they are very talented and both high level Qb prospect.  Then from there work your way down the board if you have high marks on the remaining 3 Allen, Jackson, or Mayfield. 

 

For me personally the first conversation I have at the end of the year is with the Colts.  They will have a desirable pick but also have a Qb that who appears to be some doubts with and a player who has moved more and more away from the organization.  I believe he has refused treatment with Indy after being placed on Ir and has been getting treatment in Europe on his shoulder.  That would be the guy I would go after.  Healthy, he is one of the top 5 Qb in the league and has succeeded without alot of weapons or a run game in the league.  Still young for a Qb.  Probably can give up less for than a complete trade up with Indy.    

Edited December 15, 2017 by Mat68

[DasNootz]

Looking at the history of the 3rd and 4th QBs taken in a draft, I don't see enough success to warrant trading up (especially 2 first round picks) for the risk involved.  (I don't think we're in a position to get the #1 or #2 QB based upon the needs of Cleveland and the Giants.)  If our top 2 QBs are gone, you either stay put and fill in the many holes we have, keep one and trade back for next season.

 

Deshaun Watson
DeShone Kizer

 

Paxton Lynch
Christian Hackenberg

 

Garret Grayson
Sean Mannion

 

Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr

 

Mike Glennon
Matt Barkley

 

Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden

 

Blain Gabbert
Christian Ponder

 

Jimmy Causen
Colt McCoy

 

Josh Freeman
Pat White

 

Brian Brohm
Chad Henne

[DE Bills Fan]

On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 10:46 AM, yungmack said:

I don't understand the Mayfield love unless it's "I heard of him." He is very short and worse, has Trump-like small hands. There are red flags with his behavior. And he plays in a style that really hasn't prepared him for the NFL. In a rational world, he'd be a late round, take-a-chance pick. His best shot for pro success might be as a running back.

Are you kidding me! You obviously have not watched him play!!! He is EXACTLY what the Bills need: a GREAT QB with an attitude. He is a great leader who elevates the entire team (including the defense) and he does what Jim Kelly used to do, give his skill players the opportunity to make plays. He is totally the ant Tyrod Taylor which by itself merits him being drafted. We did pretty well with someone like that in the past I recall. Not only is he accurate and has a very strong arm, but he actually is one of the very few college QB's who calls his own plays. He has set and then broken the college QB efficiency rating the past two years, and his average per pass is off the charts. No checking down with him! And he is actually pretty strong with a strong lower body. If he is there and the Bills pass, I will probably give up on this franchise. But I believe that they will try and turn this thing around. I really hope they draft him!!!!!

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

IMO, Rosen and possibly Darnold (Still a bit worried) are the only sure fire guys for me based on the plays I have seen out of them.  They stand in the pocket and are able to make throws down field on time.  I am not as blown away with the plays where these other QBs turn it into backyard football and run around before throwing up a hailmary, and I don't think those are the QBs that McBeane wants either.  That is what scares me with Some of the guys like Jackson and Mayfield, too much doing their own thing and making a play instead of reading the field and executing.  Now I understand that some of it ahs to do with the supportign cast and know this goes against what many others might want in a QB, but it is just my opinion.  I will admit that the plays that Jackson and Mayfield make are exciting, I just worry whether they will work at the next level (Reminds me of the plays Manziel made) whereas reading and firing a ball on time from the pocket to the correct read should translate to the NFL easier.

[billsredneck1]

i was looking at profiles and stats in the paper today and mayfield and rudolph make the others look pedestrian. my biggest interest in looking at college qbs is the td to int. rate ...and again they make the other look pedestrian.

[The Now Moment]

2 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Once you said to bring in Bradford I seen all I need to with your judgement. 

 

No late round QBs for me, move up and take who you want over waiting for someone to fall. They can not say they got their guy if all they did was wait for whoever was left.

The second part is right on, however, we currently have two first round picks in the twenties which makes it difficult to move up into the top 5 which is where they'd need to get to grab their guy.  It'll be challenging to make that far of a jump up into the draft.  I don't know of a time where a team has traded up from the twenties to the top five for a QB.  With all of the QB needy teams already in the top ten, it will be difficult.  The point I was trying to make, is that the opportunity to do that may not be there and that we shouldn't just take the leftovers of the top 6 that you mentioned just because we have a need.

 

With all the QB needy teams already in the top 10 that can trade up themselves, it'll be difficult for us.  

 

Also, you honestly don't believe a former 1st overall pick who has been in the NFL for many years and had 3,800 yards passing with 20 TDs and 5 INTs with a 71.6 completion percentage in 15 games last year with Minnesota could help out a rookie transition into the NFL?  If you don't, I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that front.  I'd rather not rush the QB into the first and let them develop the off the field habits that are needed to succeed in this league.  KC has sat Mahomes underneath Alex Smith this year to learn, Derek Carr wasn't supposed to start at all his first year but injuries thrust him into the lineup, Jimmy G sat behind Brady and has turned out to look pretty good.  I think a year to learn behind a veteran QB would be smart.  Like I said, unless it is Rosen or Darnold, I think that should be the way to go.  

[The Now Moment]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

You are right.  Taking a Qb because you have to leaves you with EJ,  That draft was ultra thin at Qb.  The first place they will need to look is in Fa and Vetran Qbs.  There will be a handful available.  I think you find an improvement over Taylor first. if that doesn't happen you keep Tyrod to limit a desperation pick.  After free agency but starting at the combine you try to gauge interest in the top 2 spots.  Picks player nothing is off the table if Both Darnold and Rosen come out.  In there own right they are very talented and both high level Qb prospect.  Then from there work your way down the board if you have high marks on the remaining 3 Allen, Jackson, or Mayfield. 

 

For me personally the first conversation I have at the end of the year is with the Colts.  They will have a desirable pick but also have a Qb that who appears to be some doubts with and a player who has moved more and more away from the organization.  I believe he has refused treatment with Indy after being placed on Ir and has been getting treatment in Europe on his shoulder.  That would be the guy I would go after.  Healthy, he is one of the top 5 Qb in the league and has succeeded without alot of weapons or a run game in the league.  Still young for a Qb.  Probably can give up less for than a complete trade up with Indy.    

I wonder if there will be another pre-draft trade in this draft as there have been in the past.  I expect both the Giants and Cleveland to draft a QB in those spots but who knows.  We shall see.  I'm sure the FO will look under every rock to find our next QB.  Hopefully, it works out.  Indy will certainly get a few phone calls from us this year even if it isn't about Luck.  That situation is certainly one to keep an eye on and we would have the ammo if they decided to take their next QB at 3 and fill out the rest of the roster by what they get in a deal for Luck...that's a dream scenario though.  It'll be a wild offseason though.  This board is going to go nuts no matter what we do haha

[The Now Moment]

1 hour ago, billsredneck1 said:

i was looking at profiles and stats in the paper today and mayfield and rudolph make the others look pedestrian. my biggest interest in looking at college qbs is the td to int. rate ...and again they make the other look pedestrian.

The worst and I mean the worst thing you can do is look at stats when it comes to college QBs.  Many college systems inflate the statistics of a QB and some teams can either inflate or deflate a QBs statistics based on the personnel around them.  To evaluate a college QB, you have to watch them play.  Numbers simply do not say enough.  Even the play on the field sometimes isn't enough.  You have to look at if the player is a leader and how he controls/runs the offense or if he is just a product of a system.  Not trying to bash you or anything of the sort but the eye test is much better to go off of than any numbers and even the eye test isn't enough.  That's why drafting QBs is such a crap shoot and an undefined science.