The 2017 Draft: 1st round Re-do

[P51]

18 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Knowing what you know now... looking back at the 2017 draft, what do you think the Bills should have done in the 1st round?

 

As of today its taking Watson and its not close IMO, I get its kind of an incomplete hypothetical situation not knowing what the 1st round pick this year will be or affect in the upcoming draft, but I would gladly trade it and Tre back to KC for the 10th pick and take Watson today, utilizing the omnipotent power of hindsight.  Short sample size, but potential franchise QB who has shown all the tools to be a franchise QB, including accuracy (my biggest knock on him coming out) that IMO he did not display in college. 

 

Should they parlay the extra 2018 1st round pick from the trade into a franchise QB in this draft, or draft one any other way this year, then Tre' and a Franchise QB (whomever it could be) would be the winning combination, but as of today, take the franchise QB and go from there. 

[The Dean]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I understand the reasons why the Bills didn't draft Watson (or Mahomes for that matter) by the way..... a new HC with a lame duck GM he didn't trust and scouts he was suspicious of.  He wanted to make sure that when he took his guy he did so on the evaluations of people he trusted implicitly because he gets 1 crack at this HC lark and he probably gets 1 crack at handpicking the QB of the future.  

 

 

 

 

While I think may be some truth to this, do you really think "the scouts" drive an early 1st round draft pick to any real extent? I can see relying mostly on the scouts input for picks later down the line. But these high round guys are vetted by the HC, GM, hell probably even the owner. They come in and talk to and meet the coaches, much of the time. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, The Dean said:

 

While I think may be some truth to this, do you really think "the scouts" drive an early 1st round draft pick to any real extent? I can see relying mostly on the scouts input for picks later down the line. But these high round guys are vetted by the HC, GM, hell probably even the owner. They come in and talk to and meet the coaches, much of the time. 

 

He wanted his guys.  Beane is joined at the hip to McD.  He trusts him and the people he chooses more than he ever trusted Whaley or the people he picked.  

[The Dean]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wanted his guys.  Beane is joined at the hip to McD.  He trusts him and the people he chooses more than he ever trusted Whaley or the people he picked.  

 

Not sure I'm buying it on this one. McDermott made (or at least drove) a lot of decisions during the draft. You have to move forward with the people you have in place, when it comes to decisions. Actually, trading away the pick gave MORE responsibility to the scouts and Whaley. McDermott likely had almost all the control for the first pick. The further you get away from the top picks, the more input scouts typically have. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

Not sure I'm buying it on this one. McDermott made (or at least drove) a lot of decisions during the draft. You have to move forward with the people you have in place, when it comes to decisions. Actually, trading away the pick gave MORE responsibility to the scouts and Whaley. McDermott likely had almost all the control for the first pick. The further you get away from the top picks, the more input scouts typically have. 

 

He drove all the decisions.  I have no doubt about that.  But taking a franchise QB is the BIGGEST decision and he wasn't willing to stick his neck out on that until he had his guys to fall back on.  

[suorangefan4]

In hindsight, I still like trading down for an extra 1st rounder and Tre White or TJ Watt would've been the pick.

 

I wish we had traded with the Texans instead of the Chiefs though. That pick is currently 5th (lucky Browns).

 

Staying put and taking Watson would've been good too although I did worry about his lack of arm strength translating to the NFL.

[Antonio]

Knowing what you know now... I think the Browns would have taken Watson No. 1 soooo Mayles Garret goes No. 2 

 

I think the same but we would have to pick someone ealse because Tre would not be there at 27.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Antonio said:

Knowing what you know now... I think the Browns would have taken Watson No. 1 soooo Mayles Garret goes No. 2 

 

I think the same but we would have to pick someone ealse because Tre would not be there at 27.

 

Correct.  In a full redo the Bills do not get the choice of Watson and might have to pick Tre at their original 10th spot to get him.  

[dave mcbride]

I get the sentiment for taking Watson, but I do think that both Rosen and Darnold are surer bets long term than Watson (I realize I may prove to be wildly wrong). The Bills at least got an extra first and have a lot of room to move given the extra second as well. The Browns and Giants are both likely to take a qb, though, and they won't trade out. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I get the sentiment for taking Watson, but I do think that both Rosen and Darnold are surer bets long term than Watson (I realize I may prove to be wildly wrong). The Bills at least got an extra first and have a lot of room to move given the extra second as well. The Browns and Giants are both likely to take a qb, though, and they won't trade out. 

 

That is the point.  The point is guys that good rarely drop to a team picking in the kind of area the Bills routinely do.  In 2015 and 2016 there was nobody close to Watson that dropped to that area of the draft.  I personally have Darnold graded lower at this stage than I had Watson but even if I didn't you might be in the same situation again if he and Rosen go 1 and 2.  

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is the point.  The point is guys that good rarely drop to a team picking in the kind of area the Bills routinely do.  In 2015 and 2016 there was nobody close to Watson that dropped to that area of the draft.  I personally have Darnold graded lower at this stage than I had Watson but even if I didn't you might be in the same situation again if he and Rosen go 1 and 2.  

Agreed.  The Bills needed something like Cam Newton, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, or Matthew Stafford going down with a non-crippling injury and ending up with a very high pick as a consequence. It didn't happen.

The draft targets now are Indy and SF. Unfortunately, SF looks to be decent now with Garrapolo in there and may win 4-5 games. He's a very good player. Great trade by the Niners.

Edited December 12, 2017 by dave mcbride

[BillsfanAZ]

I think you have to wait to see. Watson would not  be the same player here in Buffalo as he is in Houston. Houston has talented and fast receivers. If the KC pick is a solid starter or you use that pick to move up and get one of the better QB's in the draft then it was worth it. I like White and think he was a steal for where the Bills picked him. 

[jrober38]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well if you want to base it on what we know now...

 

Watson now has 2 torn ACL's, one in each knee.  So there is that too.

 

Meh. He's a QB who set numerous records this year and last I checked we need an upgrade there. 

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well Watson's first ACL is repaired and he has played for 3 years now with no ill effects. The 2nd ACL injury? Yea it is a concern. But you never pass up a potential Franchise QB for a DB. I thought he was one then and still do. 

 

And I love Tre White. Once we traded back he was immediately the player I wanted us to target. 

 

The only QB I have graded higher than Watson at this stage will not be there when we pick. 

 

I don't really disagree with what you are saying, and you definitely were a big Watson champion so kudos on that.   But I wouldnt necessarily say "no ill effects" considering he tore his other ACL.  There are some people in the medical field that firmly believe your chances to tear the other ACL on the other leg go up when you are dealing with a recovery from a torn ACL based on how your body compensates through recovery and the mental aspect of exerting more energy on it even when recovered because there is a tendency to feel to need to protect the other leg.  There is a bigger reoccurrence of tearing the other ACL rather than tearing the repaired ACL a second time.  

 

If we had Watson here I wouldnt have any issue with it, I loved the kid in college, and of all the QB's last draft he would have been the one I was most comfortable with.  I had concerns about his turnovers and ability to translate to the NFL, so my preference in the draft was help repair the D and go QB this next year if TT or NP didn't cease the job.  

 

Truthfully, both scenarios seemed to have worked out in the near term evaluation.  Watson showed great potential had we gone that direction (although no way he has just as good a season with the scrub WR's we have started most the season) and we are in mid December and currently still in the playoffs with 3 games to play with a big rebound from the defense this year and Tre was a big part of that, and still have our picks to get us a QB this draft.

 

PS:  Keep in mind, those WR's in Houston are making guys like Savage and Yates look like decent starting QB's too.  So Watson still has a lot more to show before I think we really know his future, but it definitely looks bright.

24 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Meh. He's a QB who set numerous records this year and last I checked we need an upgrade there. 

 

Tell that to RG3, Culpepper, etc who looked like studs and injuries sent those careers in another direction.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

PS:  Keep in mind, those WR's in Houston are making guys like Savage and Yates look like decent starting QB's too.  So Watson still has a lot more to show before I think we really know his future, but it definitely looks bright.

 

Wrong. Hopkins is. He is a proven stud who made plays with Brian Hoyer. Everyone else's numbers are way down across the board vs when Watson was in. I don't doubt having DeAndre Hopkins helps.... of course it does but other than that Deshaun was raising the level of guys like Ellington, Fuller and Griffin and making them look better than they are. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wrong. Hopkins is. He is a proven stud who made plays with Brian Hoyer. Everyone else's numbers are way down across the board vs when Watson was in. I don't doubt having DeAndre Hopkins helps.... of course it does but other than that Deshaun was raising the level of guys like Ellington, Fuller and Griffin and making them look better than they are. 

 

Lol...I get you love Watson man, and rightfully so, but Fuller and Hopkins are one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL.  And of course someone numbers will drop, Watson is clearly better than Savage/Yates.

[TigerJ]

Tre'davious White turned out to have been an excellent pick, and I have no problem with the Bills' strategy in the first round, since teams don't have the benefit of hindsight when they draft.  However, redrafts are all about hindsight.  Deshaun Watson looks like the real deal in Houston.  I expect when he recovers from his injury, he will continue to develop into a reliable franchise level QB.  A franchise is a major key to success in the NFL and it has been a very long time since Buffalo has had one.  That makes this an easy choice.

[SaviorPeterman]

I think the 1st round worked out pretty good for us all things considered.

 

In fact you can argue the entire draft fell into place nicely for the Bills especially landing a potential steal and franchise QB in the 5th round.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol...I get you love Watson man, and rightfully so, but Fuller and Hopkins are one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL.  And of course someone numbers will drop, Watson is clearly better than Savage/Yates.

 

Hopkins I 100% agree.  But Fuller?  Here are the stats:

 

With Watson - averages 69.75 yards per game and 1.75 TDs per game

With other QBs over 2 seasons - averages 41.6 yards per game and 0.14 TDs per game.  

In fact Fuller has 9 NFL Touchdowns in almost 2 seasons.  7 of them came in his 4 games with Watson at QB.  

 

Fuller with Watson is a bona fide 1B NFL receiver.  Without him he is an average #2.  

 

I agree by the way that it worked out fine for the Bills and they got a very good player who could be here a long time.  I also understand why they did what they did.  That does not change my opinion on what they should have done or what the right thing to do was. They made a wrong decision in my view.  

Edited December 12, 2017 by GunnerBill

[TigerJ]

8 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

I think the 1st round worked out pretty good for us all things considered.

 

In fact you can argue the entire draft fell into place nicely for the Bills especially landing a potential steal and franchise QB in the 5th round.

 

 

I may be ready to agree with you in a year or so.  I'm not ready yet.