Deranged Rhino Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: This would usually be the case, but the rules of how things work don't apply to Trump. Too many people hate him. Those people are going to go out in droves next time to get whoever he's running against elected. I'm not a republican nor a Trump supporter - yet the bolded is just false. If you travel around this country you'd see that just isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: This would usually be the case, but the rules of how things work don't apply to Trump. Too many people hate him. Those people are going to go out in droves next time to get whoever he's running against elected. The people who hated him will be the same that did in 2016. No one suddenly hates Trump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: I'm not a republican nor a Trump supporter - yet the bolded is just false. If you travel around this country you'd see that just isn't true. His disapproval rating is 57%. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing. That number has declined drastically since he took office. Edited December 13, 2017 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, jrober38 said: His disapproval rating is 57%. Only 32% of voters approve of the job he's doing. Every poll the night before the election said the same thing. And he won. Don't look at polls. They're garbage. Step outside of the bubble of blue cities. Talk to people who disagree with your politics rather than those who reinforce your views. You'll see what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Deranged Rhino said: Every poll the night before the election said the same thing. And he won. Don't look at polls. They're garbage. Step outside of the bubble of blue cities. Talk to people who disagree with your politics rather than those who reinforce your views. You'll see what I'm talking about. No, the polls weren't that skewed. When Trump took office, 41% of people disapproved of the job he was doing. Since then, that number has sky rocketed to 57% (an increase of 39%). The majority of the country is firmly against him. He's lost much of the support that got him elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azalin Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: This would usually be the case, but the rules of how things work don't apply to Trump. Too many people hate him. Those people are going to go out in droves next time to get whoever he's running against elected. Polls regarding Trump's popularity haven't been accurate, ever. Congress's approval rating is currently a dismal 13%. You can buy into the numbers if you wish, but DR is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: No, the polls weren't that skewed. When Trump took office, 41% of people disapproved of the job he was doing. Since then, that number has sky rocketed to 57% (an increase of 39%). The majority of the country is firmly against him. He's lost much of the support that got him elected. If you're really going to bank on people voting Trump out in November 2020 based on polls in December 2017, you're setting yourself up for giant failure. That's how HRC lost, "I don't need to go to Michigan or Wisconson, everyone hates Trump!" That attitude leads to apathy. That leads to lower turnouts (I don't need to vote, everyone else already hates him!). It's a bad strategy that got us Trump to begin with. And you're advocating doubling down on a losing strategy. Good luck with that. That's how you get more Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: If you're really going to bank on people voting Trump out in November 2020 based on polls in December 2017, you're setting yourself up for giant failure. That's how HRC lost, "I don't need to go to Michigan or Wisconson, everyone hates Trump!" That attitude leads to apathy. That leads to lower turnouts (I don't need to vote, everyone else already hates him!). It's a bad strategy that got us Trump to begin with. And you're advocating doubling down on a losing strategy. Good luck with that. That's how you get more Trump. Of course we're years away. But we're talking about if an election were held today. Or at least I thought that's what I wrote. Based of current polling numbers he'd get obliterated by pretty much any other candidate. If 57% of the electorate flat out disapproves of the job you're doing, those people are probably going to the polls to enact change, and I'm pretty sure you can't win a presidential election if that portion of the electorate votes against you. Hilary Clinton was a horrible candidate. She'd have lost to pretty much any of the Republic options in the primaries because she had so many glaring flaws as a Presidential Candidate. The Dems had no one but themselves to blame for forcing her down everyone's throat. And assuming the Dems will use the same campaign strategy as they used last year is equally as dumb as me assuming the current approval polls will play a part in three years (I was talking about right now). Edited December 13, 2017 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, jrober38 said: Of course we're years away. But we're talking about if an election were held today. Based of current polling numbers he'd get obliterated by pretty much any other candidate. If 57% of the electorate flat out disapproves of the job you're doing, those people are probably going to the polls to enact change, and I'm pretty sure you can't win a presidential election if that portion of the electorate votes against you. Hilary Clinton was a horrible candidate. She'd have lost to pretty much any of the Republic options in the primaries because she had so many glaring flaws as a Presidential Candidate. Assuming the Dems will use the same campaign strategy as they used last year is equally as dumb as me assuming the current approval polls will play a part in three years. I'm not assuming though, you're advocating the same thinking and strategy they already deployed and got trounced with. I'm really not trying to be a dick, so we can agree to disagree, I'm just trying to point out to you (and all on the left who want to oust Trump) that relying on the belief that "everyone hates Trump", especially when that belief is based on polls or conversations/social media/newspaper op eds of fellow left minded folks is setting yourself up to be less involved, less active, and thus have less of a chance of getting the outcome you want in 2020. The only thing that's going to beat Trump in 2020 is to have a message that doesn't rely on identity politics, Russian hysteria, or any of the other tactics which already have been proven will not work against 45. I would say the left has to dump the neocon-neoliberal establishment folks as well to have a shot, and return to being the party who's against war, against surveillance, against regime change. But to do that, you must have REAL conversations and REAL solutions to ACTUAL issues the people of the country care about. And people on the left won't do that if they're confident "everyone hates Trump and he's definitely going to lose". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Unless there are extraordinary circumstances it will boil down to the economy. If the economy is robust then it will leave snowflakes and people who are immune to an economic downturn as the ones opposed to Trump. You might not find them putting his signs in their yard or backing him in polls but they will pull the lever for him in private. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: I'm not assuming though, you're advocating the same thinking and strategy they already deployed and got trounced with. I'm really not trying to be a dick, so we can agree to disagree, I'm just trying to point out to you (and all on the left who want to oust Trump) that relying on the belief that "everyone hates Trump", especially when that belief is based on polls or conversations/social media/newspaper op eds of fellow left minded folks is setting yourself up to be less involved, less active, and thus have less of a chance of getting the outcome you want in 2020. The only thing that's going to beat Trump in 2020 is to have a message that doesn't rely on identity politics, Russian hysteria, or any of the other tactics which already have been proven will not work against 45. I would say the left has to dump the neocon-neoliberal establishment folks as well to have a shot, and return to being the party who's against war, against surveillance, against regime change. But to do that, you must have REAL conversations and REAL solutions to ACTUAL issues the people of the country care about. And people on the left won't do that if they're confident "everyone hates Trump and he's definitely going to lose". I agree with the premise of what they need to do, but I think you underestimate how many people truly dislike Donald Trump right now. Most of the 2016 polls had Clinton with a 2 to 4 point advantage heading into election night. Trump's current approval rating shows there's a 20 point difference in those who approve vs disapprove. That's a MASSIVE advantage. Edited December 13, 2017 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, jrober38 said: His disapproval rating is 57%. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing. That number has declined drastically since he took office. Even with my 401k making money hand over fist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: I agree with the premise of what they need to do, but I think you underestimate how many people truly dislike Donald Trump right now. Most of the 2016 polls had Clinton with a 2 to 4 point advantage heading into election night. Trump's current approval rating shows there's a 20 point difference in those who approve vs disapprove. That's a MASSIVE advantage. It's fashionable to blast Trump. Even those of us that support his policies think he's narcissistic and a buffoon. You'll see many of us here supporting what Trump does but not what he always says. Trump doesn't inspire me but tax cuts, economic growth, energy independence and border security does. If a pollster calls me and asks if I like Trump I'll probably say no, but if they put me down as not voting for him then they would again be wrong. 3 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Even with my 401k making money hand over fist! And when you get a barrage of commercials warning what Cuomo, as the dems choice will do for the economy you might think twice about your vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: It's fashionable to blast Trump. Even those of us that support his policies think he's narcissistic and a buffoon. You'll see many of us here supporting what Trump does but not what he always says. Trump doesn't inspire me but tax cuts, economic growth, energy independence and border security does. If a pollster calls me and asks if I like Trump I'll probably say no, but if they put me down as not voting for him then they would again be wrong. And when you get a barrage of commercials warning what Cuomo, as the dems choice will do for the economy you might think twice about your vote. No. There is enough blood on ours hands, it won't alter my vote. People lack a moral compass. The bill always comes due. Just don't be left standing without a chair when the music stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: No. There is enough blood on ours hands, it won't alter my vote. People lack a moral compass. The bill always comes due. Just don't be left standing without a chair when the music stops. A bird in the hand is not worth a hand in the bush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: It's fashionable to blast Trump. Even those of us that support his policies think he's narcissistic and a buffoon. You'll see many of us here supporting what Trump does but not what he always says. Trump doesn't inspire me but tax cuts, economic growth, energy independence and border security does. If a pollster calls me and asks if I like Trump I'll probably say no, but if they put me down as not voting for him then they would again be wrong. And when you get a barrage of commercials warning what Cuomo, as the dems choice will do for the economy you might think twice about your vote. The economy was great under Obama, and Trump is living off that now, energy was very much improving under Obama and the nativism is just anti-immigrant sh it. Trump has done almost nothing positive. He's a joke who is trying to wreck the government from within. I would guess you support that and see it as a positive, though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) Another thought based on the economy created by the worst pres ever Why has gas jumped up 50 cents a gallon from earlier this year? I keep waiting for it to drop but some one keeps opening his fat mouth and pissing the Arabs off. Edited December 13, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, ALF said: If the election were held now he would lose by a landslide. I don't even think he will survive 1 term. The pendulum will swing the other way in 2018 and 2020. I just hope bipartisan politicians who are not bought and paid for by special interests get elected. jmo As I often say, the party in power always screws up. However, Dems should be careful about 2018. Most likely a strong economy, maybe another legislative win or two and a map that's not all that friendly will favor Republicans. 3 hours ago, Boyst62 said: That sounds great. But who the bloody hell would beat him In a landslide. Schumer is not going to sit well nationally. Whoever else... Nah The only ones who lose in a landslide are Americans. The Democrats have NO ONE poised to beat him in 2020. They were all in with Bernie Actually I think Dems will have a few candidates for Pres 2020 that will be more appealing than Hillary or Bernie. It won't take much. The bar was really low with Hillary's many faults/issues and Bernie simply pushing an impossible agenda. 21 minutes ago, Tiberius said: The economy was great under Obama, and Trump is living off that now, energy was very much improving under Obama and the nativism is just anti-immigrant sh it. Trump has done almost nothing positive. He's a joke who is trying to wreck the government from within. I would guess you support that and see it as a positive, though . If he can wreck the government apparatus to the tune of 50% or so Trump will have support like none before him. Edited December 13, 2017 by keepthefaith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: As I often say, the party in power always screws up. However, Dems should be careful about 2018. Most likely a strong economy, maybe another legislative win or two and a map that's not all that friendly will favor Republicans. Actually I think Dems will have a few candidates for Pres 2020 that will be more appealing than Hillary or Bernie. It won't take much. The bar was really low with Hillary's many faults/issues and Bernie simply pushing an impossible agenda. If he can wreck the government apparatus to the tune of 50% or so Trump will have support like none before him. The problem is that these candidates are strong to their party. Not to those who they want to switch. Not one Democratic potential front-runner could do that. Schumer is the closest but would get B word slapped by Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said: The election will be decided by the shape of the economy at the time. That's always the case. No wonder the dems are fighting tax cuts so much. They know if the economy is going good then they will again be losers on a national scale. So it is important to the dems that they somehow tank the economy. Party over Country, right? I've never seen this much vitriol towards a president. Just talking to people who've shown no interest in politics before say they're just checking off dem, dem, dem come 2018 and 2020 no matter who runs. Anecdotal stuff like that can be useful when making predictions. Trump proved that. The stock market is at an all time high right now and the unemployment rate is at a 20 year low. Gas continues to be cheap. His approval rating should be closer to at least 60% with those kind of economic numbers. What happens if there's an economic downturn when 2019 arrives if his approval ratings are already this low? Hillary won't be on the ballot in 2020 (I think). It's difficult to take out an incumbent president as 1992 was the last time that happened, but Trump has to change course in order to right the ship if he's going to be reelected. Enough with the stupid tweets attacking media figures, the NFL, politicians, etc... It continues to energize a long dormant democratic base. Notice how his approval rating always goes up when he's on a trip overseas and doesn't have time to watch cable news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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