Gutless Call to Punt

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

And if they tie with the /colts they have to beat the Patriots. You sure you know what you're talking about, Shaw? 

 

how far exactly did it get him? Any Super bowl wins? 

If they BEAT the Colts they STILL have to beat the Patriots.   If they lose to the Pats they're 9-7 and lose the tie-breakers.   Before yesterday's game the practical reality was the Bills had to go 4-0 or 3-0-1.   Beating (or tying) the Pats was always on the agenda.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Uhm no, as long as we beat the Dolphins both games, we have a decent shot at the playoffs. Titans have to lose two games, though, and the Chargers have to win their division. It'd be better to beat the Patriots, yes...but if we tied the Colts game, we'd have to beat the Patriots to have any chance at all.

Mighty big IF.  Thank God we punted!

 

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

If they BEAT the Colts they STILL have to beat the Patriots.   If they lose to the Pats they're 9-7 and lose the tie-breakers.   Before yesterday's game the practical reality was the Bills had to go 4-0 or 3-0-1.   Beating (or tying) the Pats was always on the agenda.  

 

LOL do you even know what the playoff machine is? 

 

Here you go, have a ball: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[BillsFan130]

I still don't understand some of the mindset with ties here guys. A tie does them absolutely no good!

 

You are saying if the Bills tie that game, they are going to beat Miami, go to New England and win, and win in Miami the last game of the year?...

 

Yes they would be mathematically alive and could finish 9-6-1 I understand that. But you have to understand the scenario, and realize it would almost be impossible to win the last 3 games, especially going AT New England and knocking off Brady and Belichick. That straight up will not happen. Especially when clinching the conference will probably be on the line for the Pats.

 

So you NEED to go for the win right there against a lousy Colts team. Once again here guys. A tie does absolutely nothing for them

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

If they BEAT the Colts they STILL have to beat the Patriots.   If they lose to the Pats they're 9-7 and lose the tie-breakers.   Before yesterday's game the practical reality was the Bills had to go 4-0 or 3-0-1.   Beating (or tying) the Pats was always on the agenda.  

Yes! Rolling it all on one play was foolish.  If we don't make 4th... Colts have better odds to win (even on a kick)... And Vinateri don't miss 3 in a game, even snowstorm.  Weather was abating.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Uhm no, as long as we beat the Dolphins both games, we have a decent shot at the playoffs. Titans have to lose two games, though, and the Chargers have to win their division. It'd be better to beat the Patriots, yes...but if we tied the Colts game, we'd have to beat the Patriots to have any chance at all.

That's true.   But the chances of the pieces falling just right are pretty slim.   It could happen, but probably not.   Any coach will tell you he'd rather his fate in his own hands, and with a tie or a win McDermott pretty much did.   With a loss, he didn't.   

[Domdab99]

this is what's wrong with America. Old, white men who think they're right and refusing the facts right in front of them.  

[Shaw66]

Just now, ExiledInIllinois said:

Yes! Rolling it all on one play was foolish.  

Why do QBs intentionally throw the ball away instead of throwing into double coverage?   Because rolling it all on one play is foolish.   

 

Serious competitors know that the smart move is to live to play another day.  Survive and advance. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Why do QBs intentionally throw the ball away instead of throwing into double coverage?   Because rolling it all on one play is foolish.   

 

Serious competitors know that the smart move is to live to play another day.  Survive and advance. 

And in driving blizzard get the ball as close to scoring as possible.  In those conditions, the O is more apt to make a mistake.

8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

this is what's wrong with America. Old, white men who think they're right and refusing the facts right in front of them.  

LoL... Hey wait a sec, you meant me? 

 

No way! 

Edited December 11, 2017 by ExiledInIllinois

[dubs]

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

 

this is so amazingly wrong on so many levels, I'm completely stunned.

 

If you want to know why we haven't been to the playoffs in 18 years, it's because the organization thinks just like this. I am literally stunned there are so many otherwise intelligent posters on this site - who have apparently watched years of football without learning a damn thing - who can't understand basic math and probability.

 

It's astonishing.

 

Domdab99 - seriously, what is your "math and probability" that you keep trotting out.  I am asking directly because neither you nor anyone has been able to provide anything to that effect.  The only thing I've seen is the 2% win decrease from punting that MAJBobby used, based on a model that doesn't factor in anything that was unique to that game (such as the weather, opposing QB, what the opposing offense needs to do to move the ball down the field in that situation, etc...)

 

So...what's the "math"?

 

 

[sven233]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This point is lost on people all the time.  It comes up this time of year in most seasons.   Teams that are trying to make the playoffs know that losses knock them out, ties don't.  9-6-1 gets the Bills into the playoffs, because it leaves the Bills a half game ahead of all the teams that are 9-7.  If the Bills are 9-7, it's quite likely they lose the tiebreakers and they're out. 

 

A tie is more like a win than like a loss. 

You don't get it......  a TIE put our probability to make the Playoffs at about 3%.  A loss is 0%.  You had to win based on the math of what's left on the schedule for us and every other team.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

LOL do you even know what the playoff machine is? 

 

Here you go, have a ball: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Well, I'm confused.  This site says the Bills are 6th.  It also says the Bills win the tie breaker over the Chargers.  But it also says the first tie breaker is head to head, and if memory serves the Chargers slipped past Bills by about 30 when they played, so how are the Bills in?

 

Chargers have Chiefs, Jets, Raiders.   They should go 2-1, maybe 3-0.  Bills lose to Pats and go 2-1.   How do the Bills get in?

[dubs]

16 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

this is what's wrong with America. Old, white men who think they're right and refusing the facts right in front of them.  

 

 

Huh?  What on earth does someone's age or race have to do with a position on punting or going for it?  Nice hot take dude!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

 

Huh?  What on earth does someone's age or race have to do with a position on punting or going for it?  Nice hot take dude!

 

don't mind domdab. he's...different.

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, sven233 said:

You don't get it......  a TIE put our probability to make the Playoffs at about 3%.  A loss is 0%.  You had to win based on the math of what's left on the schedule for us and every other team.

Wait.  Today the Bills probability of getting into the playoffs is 16% or so.   You're saying it would have been 3% if they'd tied and 0% if they'd lost?   

 

That is EXACTLY my point.  Survive and advance.  The only unacceptable option was losing.   I want winning, but in that situation I'll take tying, because 3% is definitely better than O%.   And let's face it, 16% aint great.  

 

Survive and advance.   We survive with a tie and we don't with a loss.   And then, amazingly, we got the win anyway.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Wait.  Today the Bills probability of getting into the playoffs is 16% or so.   You're saying it would have been 3% if they'd tied and 0% if they'd lost?   

 

That is EXACTLY my point.  Survive and advance.  The only unacceptable option was losing.   I want winning, but in that situation I'll take tying, because 3% is definitely better than O%.   And let's face it, 16% aint great.  

 

Survive and advance.   We survive with a tie and we don't with a loss.   And then, amazingly, we got the win anyway.  

 

I'd add a like to that, but I'm out for the day.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

don't mind domdab. he's...different.

 

I guess.  

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Wait.  Today the Bills probability of getting into the playoffs is 16% or so.   You're saying it would have been 3% if they'd tied and 0% if they'd lost?   

 

That is EXACTLY my point.  Survive and advance.  The only unacceptable option was losing.   I want winning, but in that situation I'll take tying, because 3% is definitely better than O%.   And let's face it, 16% aint great.  

 

Survive and advance.   We survive with a tie and we don't with a loss.   And then, amazingly, we got the win anyway.  

3 percent chance? Holy cow, that's about a 1 in 33 chance! With odds like that, how can anyone be mad at the possibility of a tie yesterday!.. 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, billsfan11 said:

3 percent chance? Holy cow, that's about a 1 in 33 chance! With odds like that, how can anyone be mad at the possibility of a tie yesterday!.. 

3% > 0%.  Math and stats have taken a beating around here today.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

3% > 0%.  Math and stats have taken a beating around here today.

 

...."gutless" is undeservedly over the top.........McD is a rook HC learning the ropes as the "big picture game day manager".......I'm certain not ONE seasoned HC would or could EVER make such a questionable call....they're infallible models of consistency in personnel, game & clock management....mistake(s) in their world are unheard of....thank God they're not "under review" of the stoic TBD pundits.....

Edited December 11, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy